ill Clinton Testifies Behind Closed Doors in Epstein Case; "No Qualifying Event" Settlement Probability at 98%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the specialized forecast "What will Bill Clinton say during his Epstein hearing?" includes 21 popular word options such as "Epstein" and "President." However, the trigger probability for these options is currently below 3%, while the probability for "No Qualifying Event" has reached as high as 98%.
Around February 27 local time, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton went to a Congressional committee to testify regarding the investigation into the Jeffrey Epstein case.
This extreme probability distribution is a direct result of the nature of the testimony and the market's strict settlement rules: since the testimony was conducted behind closed doors, the details of the speech are unavailable to the public. Consequently, unless the Congressional committee releases specific transcripts or video of the testimony before the March 5 deadline, the market will settle as "No Qualifying Event."
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the specialized forecast "What will Bill Clinton say during his Epstein hearing?" includes 21 popular word options such as "Epstein" and "President." However, the trigger probability for these options is currently below 3%, while the probability for "No Qualifying Event" has reached as high as 98%.
Around February 27 local time, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton went to a Congressional committee to testify regarding the investigation into the Jeffrey Epstein case.
This extreme probability distribution is a direct result of the nature of the testimony and the market's strict settlement rules: since the testimony was conducted behind closed doors, the details of the speech are unavailable to the public. Consequently, unless the Congressional committee releases specific transcripts or video of the testimony before the March 5 deadline, the market will settle as "No Qualifying Event."
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Media Outlets Report Joint US-Israeli Strikes on Iran; Probability of "US Strikes First" Rebounds to 33%
On the prediction market Polymarket, news of "joint US-Israeli strikes" has significantly impacted the betting pool for "Who will strike Iran first: US or Israel?" The probability of the United States being the first to strike has surged from a low of 4.5% to its current level of 33%.
The market movement follows a flurry of breaking reports. China Daily, citing Israeli media, issued a flash update stating that "joint Israeli-American attacks have been launched against Iran."
According to the market rules, if both countries launch an attack simultaneously, or if the chronological order of the strikes remains ambiguous, the market will settle by splitting the pool 50-50 between both outcomes.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, news of "joint US-Israeli strikes" has significantly impacted the betting pool for "Who will strike Iran first: US or Israel?" The probability of the United States being the first to strike has surged from a low of 4.5% to its current level of 33%.
The market movement follows a flurry of breaking reports. China Daily, citing Israeli media, issued a flash update stating that "joint Israeli-American attacks have been launched against Iran."
According to the market rules, if both countries launch an attack simultaneously, or if the chronological order of the strikes remains ambiguous, the market will settle by splitting the pool 50-50 between both outcomes.
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Xinhua Reports Iran Launches Missiles at Israel; Probability of Retaliatory Strike Market Surges to 95%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that "Iran will attack Israel by February 28" has skyrocketed to 95%.
Xinhua News Agency has just released a flash report stating that the Israeli military has detected missiles launched from Iran toward its territory.
The settlement rules for this market are strictly defined:
Scope of Attack: The strike must be initiated by Iran using missiles, drones, or aircraft and must "substantially hit" Israel's land territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial waters).
Excluded Forms: Attacks via artillery, ground invasions, or cyber warfare do not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Interceptions Do Not Count: If a missile or drone is intercepted by air defense systems, the market will not settle as "Yes," even if falling debris from the interception lands within Israeli territory or causes damage.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that "Iran will attack Israel by February 28" has skyrocketed to 95%.
Xinhua News Agency has just released a flash report stating that the Israeli military has detected missiles launched from Iran toward its territory.
The settlement rules for this market are strictly defined:
Scope of Attack: The strike must be initiated by Iran using missiles, drones, or aircraft and must "substantially hit" Israel's land territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial waters).
Excluded Forms: Attacks via artillery, ground invasions, or cyber warfare do not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Interceptions Do Not Count: If a missile or drone is intercepted by air defense systems, the market will not settle as "Yes," even if falling debris from the interception lands within Israeli territory or causes damage.
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Iran Launches Missiles at Qatar; "Attack on Qatar" Market Probability Rises to 75% Following Interceptions
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the "Will Iran attack Qatar by February 28?" market has climbed to 75%.
In its "first wave of retaliation" following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran launched several ballistic missiles toward targets in the Gulf region. The Qatari Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense confirmed that at least two Iranian missiles flying over Qatari airspace were successfully intercepted by its Patriot missile defense systems. While local residents reported seeing flashes from the explosions, no ground damage or casualties have been reported, and officials describe the situation as "stable and secure."
However, because Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base—the largest American military facility in the Middle East—is considered a primary target, the U.S. Embassy in Qatar has issued an emergency security alert, instructing all embassy personnel and U.S. citizens in the country to "shelter in place." Iranian state media has warned that "more waves are coming."
Market Settlement Rules:
The rules for this market define a valid "attack" as a missile, drone, or aerial bomb substantially hitting Qatar's land territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial waters). Missiles intercepted by air defense systems do not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the "Will Iran attack Qatar by February 28?" market has climbed to 75%.
In its "first wave of retaliation" following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran launched several ballistic missiles toward targets in the Gulf region. The Qatari Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense confirmed that at least two Iranian missiles flying over Qatari airspace were successfully intercepted by its Patriot missile defense systems. While local residents reported seeing flashes from the explosions, no ground damage or casualties have been reported, and officials describe the situation as "stable and secure."
However, because Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base—the largest American military facility in the Middle East—is considered a primary target, the U.S. Embassy in Qatar has issued an emergency security alert, instructing all embassy personnel and U.S. citizens in the country to "shelter in place." Iranian state media has warned that "more waves are coming."
Market Settlement Rules:
The rules for this market define a valid "attack" as a missile, drone, or aerial bomb substantially hitting Qatar's land territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial waters). Missiles intercepted by air defense systems do not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
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Account that Earned $240k Betting on Government Shutdown Wagers $152k that Khamenei Will Not Step Down Before April
On the prediction market Polymarket, a professional account that accurately operated in the "When will the U.S. government shutdown end" market to earn a $240,000 profit has invested $152k wagering that "Khamenei will not step down/be ousted as the Supreme Leader of Iran before March 31." Currently, the probability of him stepping down is 44%.
The recent joint U.S.-Israeli strikes covered not only multiple nuclear facilities but also reached deep into downtown Tehran, including the areas surrounding Supreme Leader Khamenei's office. U.S. President Trump has issued a public statement clearly indicating that the goal of this military action is to topple the current Iranian regime.
The 86-year-old Khamenei has currently been emergency-transferred and placed in a highly secure underground air-raid bunker within Iran. It is claimed that, under strict security protection, he is commanding retaliatory actions against the U.S. and Israel alongside high-level members of the National Security Council. Despite persistent rumors in recent years regarding Khamenei's deteriorating health, as of now, there is no definitive official or intelligence evidence suggesting he was injured in the current airstrikes or is experiencing a sudden health crisis.
Account:
0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
Total Position: $152k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a professional account that accurately operated in the "When will the U.S. government shutdown end" market to earn a $240,000 profit has invested $152k wagering that "Khamenei will not step down/be ousted as the Supreme Leader of Iran before March 31." Currently, the probability of him stepping down is 44%.
The recent joint U.S.-Israeli strikes covered not only multiple nuclear facilities but also reached deep into downtown Tehran, including the areas surrounding Supreme Leader Khamenei's office. U.S. President Trump has issued a public statement clearly indicating that the goal of this military action is to topple the current Iranian regime.
The 86-year-old Khamenei has currently been emergency-transferred and placed in a highly secure underground air-raid bunker within Iran. It is claimed that, under strict security protection, he is commanding retaliatory actions against the U.S. and Israel alongside high-level members of the National Security Council. Despite persistent rumors in recent years regarding Khamenei's deteriorating health, as of now, there is no definitive official or intelligence evidence suggesting he was injured in the current airstrikes or is experiencing a sudden health crisis.
Account:
0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
Total Position: $152k
------------------------
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US-Israeli Joint Operation Hits Militants in Iraq; "Attack on Iraq" Odds Skyrocket
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for "US to attack Iraq by February 28" surged from 1% to as high as 80% (currently 70%), while the probability for "Israel to attack Iraq by February 28" jumped from 2% to a peak of 95% (currently 90%).
Simultaneous with the massive joint airstrikes (codenamed "Epic Fury" by the US and "Lion's Roar" by Israel), US and Israeli forces launched kinetic strikes against pro-Iranian militia networks in Iraq. These strikes were intended as a preemptive measure to suppress coordinated retaliation from Iran's regional proxies.
According to latest reports from AFP and The National, during the same window as the strikes on Iran, the Jurf al-Nasr (formerly Jurf al-Sakher) military base—located approximately 60km southwest of Baghdad—was hit by missiles. The base is a core stronghold for the Iran-backed Shiite militia Kataeb Hezbollah. Internal sources within the militia confirmed that the strike killed at least two personnel and wounded five others.
In the wake of the strikes, Iraq's Ministry of Transport announced an emergency evacuation of all air traffic and a total closure of Iraqi airspace.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for "US to attack Iraq by February 28" surged from 1% to as high as 80% (currently 70%), while the probability for "Israel to attack Iraq by February 28" jumped from 2% to a peak of 95% (currently 90%).
Simultaneous with the massive joint airstrikes (codenamed "Epic Fury" by the US and "Lion's Roar" by Israel), US and Israeli forces launched kinetic strikes against pro-Iranian militia networks in Iraq. These strikes were intended as a preemptive measure to suppress coordinated retaliation from Iran's regional proxies.
According to latest reports from AFP and The National, during the same window as the strikes on Iran, the Jurf al-Nasr (formerly Jurf al-Sakher) military base—located approximately 60km southwest of Baghdad—was hit by missiles. The base is a core stronghold for the Iran-backed Shiite militia Kataeb Hezbollah. Internal sources within the militia confirmed that the strike killed at least two personnel and wounded five others.
In the wake of the strikes, Iraq's Ministry of Transport announced an emergency evacuation of all air traffic and a total closure of Iraqi airspace.
-----------------------------
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Multiple Accounts Profit from US Strikes on Iran and Khamenei Ousting; 3 Early-Warning Accounts Earn $1.6M
On the prediction market Polymarket, over a dozen accounts have realized profits of over $50k each by accurately betting on two major events: "US strikes Iran" and "Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei to step down." The early positioning of the top three accounts was previously captured and broadcast by this channel. These three accounts have earned a combined profit of $1.6 million.
Among them, account 0x37d1 was confirmed at the time of the broadcast to have profited $256k from the 2025 US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The other two accounts are both new users with no prior trading history, with bets entirely concentrated on events related to strikes against Iran.
Accounts:
0x37d10ffb61998561c5f9fb941c42c952d8fb4e28 (Broadcast on the 24th)
0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23 (Broadcast on the 26th)
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a (Broadcast on the 2nd)
Total Profit: $1.6M
------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, over a dozen accounts have realized profits of over $50k each by accurately betting on two major events: "US strikes Iran" and "Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei to step down." The early positioning of the top three accounts was previously captured and broadcast by this channel. These three accounts have earned a combined profit of $1.6 million.
Among them, account 0x37d1 was confirmed at the time of the broadcast to have profited $256k from the 2025 US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The other two accounts are both new users with no prior trading history, with bets entirely concentrated on events related to strikes against Iran.
Accounts:
0x37d10ffb61998561c5f9fb941c42c952d8fb4e28 (Broadcast on the 24th)
0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23 (Broadcast on the 26th)
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a (Broadcast on the 2nd)
Total Profit: $1.6M
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6-0 Trader on Iran Markets Bets $13.8k on Regime Collapse This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account with a perfect 6-0 record in Iran-related forecasts has wagered $13.8k that the "Iranian regime will collapse by March 31." The current probability for a regime collapse stands at 38%.
Following the confirmation that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, discussions regarding the potential rapid disintegration of the Iranian government have intensified. In his latest public remarks, President Trump has explicitly stated that the core strategic objective of this military action is to facilitate regime change in Iran.
A large segment of the Iranian population has long-held grievances against the current government and its strict theocratic rule. Following the news of Khamenei's death, numerous videos have surfaced on social media showing local citizens taking to the streets to cheer and even dance in celebration, highlighting the significant internal resistance and crisis of legitimacy the regime now faces.
Despite the death of the Supreme Leader, under the Iranian Constitution, the country is currently managed by a provisional leadership council consisting of the President, the Head of the Judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council. This body will hold power until the Assembly of Experts selects a permanent successor.
Furthermore, Iran’s high-level political structure and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintain a rigorous "multiple backup" succession mechanism. Every core military and governmental position is supported by several vetted alternates ready to step in immediately. This system is designed to ensure that even in the event of "decapitation strikes" against top leadership, the state machinery can continue to function and maintain the continuity of ruling power.
Account:
0xf9939a1e54baa08e4f4d8549f1050f1ee7f6cd9d
Total Position: $13.8k
-------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an account with a perfect 6-0 record in Iran-related forecasts has wagered $13.8k that the "Iranian regime will collapse by March 31." The current probability for a regime collapse stands at 38%.
Following the confirmation that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, discussions regarding the potential rapid disintegration of the Iranian government have intensified. In his latest public remarks, President Trump has explicitly stated that the core strategic objective of this military action is to facilitate regime change in Iran.
A large segment of the Iranian population has long-held grievances against the current government and its strict theocratic rule. Following the news of Khamenei's death, numerous videos have surfaced on social media showing local citizens taking to the streets to cheer and even dance in celebration, highlighting the significant internal resistance and crisis of legitimacy the regime now faces.
Despite the death of the Supreme Leader, under the Iranian Constitution, the country is currently managed by a provisional leadership council consisting of the President, the Head of the Judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council. This body will hold power until the Assembly of Experts selects a permanent successor.
Furthermore, Iran’s high-level political structure and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintain a rigorous "multiple backup" succession mechanism. Every core military and governmental position is supported by several vetted alternates ready to step in immediately. This system is designed to ensure that even in the event of "decapitation strikes" against top leadership, the state machinery can continue to function and maintain the continuity of ruling power.
Account:
0xf9939a1e54baa08e4f4d8549f1050f1ee7f6cd9d
Total Position: $13.8k
-------------------------
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Trader with Precision Betting History on 2025 Iran Strikes Wagers $10k on Hormuz Strait Blockade This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account that previously accurately timed the 2025 U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran—earning a profit of $150.7k—has placed a $10k bet that "Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz by March 31." The current probability for a blockade stands at 59%.
During the 2025 joint airstrikes, Iran chose not to close the Strait; at that time, the scale of the attacks was relatively contained. To maintain its final economic lifeline of oil exports and avoid alienating neighboring Gulf states and the international community, Tehran maintained a strategic bottom line and refrained from using this "nuclear option" of maritime trade.
However, following yesterday's unprecedented joint strikes and the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the Iranian regime faces an existential "darkest hour." Under the threat of an explicit U.S. regime-change policy, hardliners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), now stripped of top-level restraint, may leverage the closure of this energy chokepoint—through which roughly 20% of global oil consumption passes—as a retaliatory tool to blackmail the global economy.
According to the settlement rules of this market, a total physical lockdown is not required. The option will settle as "Yes" if Iran "comprehensively halts or severely restricts" international maritime traffic through the Strait at any point before March 31.
Account:
0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14
Total Position: $10k
------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an account that previously accurately timed the 2025 U.S.-Israeli military actions against Iran—earning a profit of $150.7k—has placed a $10k bet that "Iran will block the Strait of Hormuz by March 31." The current probability for a blockade stands at 59%.
During the 2025 joint airstrikes, Iran chose not to close the Strait; at that time, the scale of the attacks was relatively contained. To maintain its final economic lifeline of oil exports and avoid alienating neighboring Gulf states and the international community, Tehran maintained a strategic bottom line and refrained from using this "nuclear option" of maritime trade.
However, following yesterday's unprecedented joint strikes and the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, the Iranian regime faces an existential "darkest hour." Under the threat of an explicit U.S. regime-change policy, hardliners within the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), now stripped of top-level restraint, may leverage the closure of this energy chokepoint—through which roughly 20% of global oil consumption passes—as a retaliatory tool to blackmail the global economy.
According to the settlement rules of this market, a total physical lockdown is not required. The option will settle as "Yes" if Iran "comprehensively halts or severely restricts" international maritime traffic through the Strait at any point before March 31.
Account:
0xb1fa1aa03ce4f1f4e259cda433e7fdaf80f91a14
Total Position: $10k
------------------------
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82% Probability of WTI Crude Breaking $75 by Late March; Weekend Warfare May Aim to Avert Market Panic
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "WTI Crude Oil (CL) exceeding $75 by the end of March" has reached 82%. The current WTI benchmark price sits at approximately $67.
Iran is not only a major oil producer but also controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Khamenei have intensified market fears of a full-scale Middle East war, damage to oil infrastructure, and a potential blockade of the Strait.
Because this military operation took place over the weekend, prices in traditional financial markets—such as oil, gold, and Western equities—have not yet shown significant volatility. Analysts suggest that the Trump administration likely chose a weekend for the assault to utilize the market closure as a "buffer period," allowing time to digest the news and potentially preventing a panic sell-off in stocks or an uncontrolled surge in gold prices during active trading hours.
-----------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of "WTI Crude Oil (CL) exceeding $75 by the end of March" has reached 82%. The current WTI benchmark price sits at approximately $67.
Iran is not only a major oil producer but also controls the Strait of Hormuz, a critical chokepoint for roughly 20% of the world's oil supply. The joint U.S.-Israeli strikes and the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Khamenei have intensified market fears of a full-scale Middle East war, damage to oil infrastructure, and a potential blockade of the Strait.
Because this military operation took place over the weekend, prices in traditional financial markets—such as oil, gold, and Western equities—have not yet shown significant volatility. Analysts suggest that the Trump administration likely chose a weekend for the assault to utilize the market closure as a "buffer period," allowing time to digest the news and potentially preventing a panic sell-off in stocks or an uncontrolled surge in gold prices during active trading hours.
-----------------------
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Four Accounts Profiting from Iran Conflict Markets Bet $28k on Return of the Late Shah's Eldest Son to Iran
On the prediction market Polymarket, four accounts that have profited from the current round of Iran conflict-related markets have collectively invested $28k on the outcome "Reza Pahlavi to enter Iran by June 30." The probability for this option currently stands at 38%.
A related market, "Will the U.S. recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?", currently shows a 31% probability for "Yes."
As the eldest son of Iran’s last Shah, Reza Pahlavi has lived in exile (primarily in the United States) since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and has long served as a prominent leader of the Iranian overseas opposition.
Following the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Reza Pahlavi released a video statement on X, characterizing the U.S.-led military action as a "humanitarian intervention" targeting the Iranian regime's "machinery of suppression." He called upon the Iranian military, police, and security forces to abandon their loyalty to the "sinking" current regime and stand with the people. Additionally, he urged Iranian citizens to remain safely in their homes for the time being, stating that he would announce a specific time at the appropriate moment to "return to the streets for the final action" to reclaim and rebuild Iran together.
According to the market settlement rules, Reza Pahlavi must enter Iran’s terrestrial territory before the specified deadline. Entering Iranian airspace or territorial waters does not meet the criteria for a "Yes" settlement.
Accounts:
0xc1b7cca4331fb1ec2ccbbe9c5b5559cb09b0e00b
0x6195e441d616bc6fe41b7344e2027f91e5c54570
0xf66bb1374fc6bcece37b9f562eb5f5bedc95b1d1
0x8fba3aa991dc7df44f8a3b20a178e1781b7d433a
Total Position: $28k
------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, four accounts that have profited from the current round of Iran conflict-related markets have collectively invested $28k on the outcome "Reza Pahlavi to enter Iran by June 30." The probability for this option currently stands at 38%.
A related market, "Will the U.S. recognize Reza Pahlavi as the leader of Iran in 2026?", currently shows a 31% probability for "Yes."
As the eldest son of Iran’s last Shah, Reza Pahlavi has lived in exile (primarily in the United States) since the 1979 Islamic Revolution and has long served as a prominent leader of the Iranian overseas opposition.
Following the U.S.-Israeli airstrikes on Iran, Reza Pahlavi released a video statement on X, characterizing the U.S.-led military action as a "humanitarian intervention" targeting the Iranian regime's "machinery of suppression." He called upon the Iranian military, police, and security forces to abandon their loyalty to the "sinking" current regime and stand with the people. Additionally, he urged Iranian citizens to remain safely in their homes for the time being, stating that he would announce a specific time at the appropriate moment to "return to the streets for the final action" to reclaim and rebuild Iran together.
According to the market settlement rules, Reza Pahlavi must enter Iran’s terrestrial territory before the specified deadline. Entering Iranian airspace or territorial waters does not meet the criteria for a "Yes" settlement.
Accounts:
0xc1b7cca4331fb1ec2ccbbe9c5b5559cb09b0e00b
0x6195e441d616bc6fe41b7344e2027f91e5c54570
0xf66bb1374fc6bcece37b9f562eb5f5bedc95b1d1
0x8fba3aa991dc7df44f8a3b20a178e1781b7d433a
Total Position: $28k
------------------------
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Three Suspicious Accounts Wager $74.5k Against Near-Term US-Iran Ceasefire; 44% Probability of Truce by March 15
On the prediction market Polymarket, three suspicious accounts have collectively invested $74.5k betting "No" across several "US-Iran Ceasefire" markets at various time intervals. Currently, the probability that the "US and Iran will reach a ceasefire before March 15" stands at 44%.
Of these three accounts, one is a new user, while the other two have previously profited $120k and $96k, respectively, by betting on events related to the "US strikes on Iran."
High-ranking U.S. officials have issued a series of hawkish statements, largely ruling out the possibility of near-term diplomatic mediation. In his latest address, President Trump explicitly reiterated that the fundamental goal of this military action is to achieve regime change in Iran, and that pressure will not cease until this strategic objective is met. Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also stated that U.S. military strikes are proceeding fully according to the established plan, and the U.S. currently has no plans or timetable for ceasefire negotiations.
Accounts:
0x2120ea0323fcf5446233056467fdb852b4b12647
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
0xea7957606f259bcba522a4681494555547a7a9cc
Total Position: $74.5k
------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, three suspicious accounts have collectively invested $74.5k betting "No" across several "US-Iran Ceasefire" markets at various time intervals. Currently, the probability that the "US and Iran will reach a ceasefire before March 15" stands at 44%.
Of these three accounts, one is a new user, while the other two have previously profited $120k and $96k, respectively, by betting on events related to the "US strikes on Iran."
High-ranking U.S. officials have issued a series of hawkish statements, largely ruling out the possibility of near-term diplomatic mediation. In his latest address, President Trump explicitly reiterated that the fundamental goal of this military action is to achieve regime change in Iran, and that pressure will not cease until this strategic objective is met. Meanwhile, Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth also stated that U.S. military strikes are proceeding fully according to the established plan, and the U.S. currently has no plans or timetable for ceasefire negotiations.
Accounts:
0x2120ea0323fcf5446233056467fdb852b4b12647
0xe7387473b067235436884d16799777cf279edf65
0xea7957606f259bcba522a4681494555547a7a9cc
Total Position: $74.5k
------------------------
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🔥1
Five Accounts with >80% Political Win Rates Wager $65.5k that Iranian Regime Will Not Fall by End of March
On the prediction market Polymarket, five accounts with historical win rates exceeding 80% in the political section have collectively invested $65.5k betting "No" on the market: "Will the Iranian regime collapse by March 31?" Currently, the probability of a regime collapse stands at 24%.
According to latest battle reports following the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran's high-level leadership suffered devastating losses. In addition to the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, several core military and political officials have also been confirmed killed, including: Abdolrahim Mousavi (Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces), Mohammad Pakpour (Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC), Aziz Nasirzadeh (Minister of Defense), and Ali Shamkhani (Senior Advisor to the Supreme Leader). This strike effectively eliminated Iran's primary top-level military command center.
Despite these severe blows, the Iranian regime and the IRGC maintain a highly redundant power structure: for every core senior military or political position, there are at least four strictly vetted successors who possess classified access and are on standby. Should a primary official be killed, the next in line is prepared to immediately assume command, ensuring that the state machinery and internal security networks continue to operate without a power vacuum.
Accounts:
0x4da76bbf120899fc10fa6e0aad4bffdd19a7355e
0x7d5d15335ec60449995971a563fd94e060f091d8
0x69ea0d77ef34f1acb03aaed901df7620fc4215cd
0xc094f0be1359b8850b232c6119ef50d784e997a1
0x30b7b487e35fb985427bfa2d85194207158de81c
Total Position: $65.5k
------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, five accounts with historical win rates exceeding 80% in the political section have collectively invested $65.5k betting "No" on the market: "Will the Iranian regime collapse by March 31?" Currently, the probability of a regime collapse stands at 24%.
According to latest battle reports following the joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran's high-level leadership suffered devastating losses. In addition to the confirmed death of Supreme Leader Khamenei, several core military and political officials have also been confirmed killed, including: Abdolrahim Mousavi (Chief of Staff of the Armed Forces), Mohammad Pakpour (Commander-in-Chief of the IRGC), Aziz Nasirzadeh (Minister of Defense), and Ali Shamkhani (Senior Advisor to the Supreme Leader). This strike effectively eliminated Iran's primary top-level military command center.
Despite these severe blows, the Iranian regime and the IRGC maintain a highly redundant power structure: for every core senior military or political position, there are at least four strictly vetted successors who possess classified access and are on standby. Should a primary official be killed, the next in line is prepared to immediately assume command, ensuring that the state machinery and internal security networks continue to operate without a power vacuum.
Accounts:
0x4da76bbf120899fc10fa6e0aad4bffdd19a7355e
0x7d5d15335ec60449995971a563fd94e060f091d8
0x69ea0d77ef34f1acb03aaed901df7620fc4215cd
0xc094f0be1359b8850b232c6119ef50d784e997a1
0x30b7b487e35fb985427bfa2d85194207158de81c
Total Position: $65.5k
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Two Accounts with Over $100k Profit from Iran Strike Markets Wager $68k on a Ceasefire This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts that previously earned over $100k in profits by betting on the "US strikes Iran" outcome have collectively invested $68k wagering that "the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire this month." The current probability for a ceasefire stands at 56%.
Among them, dicedicedice is a new account registered just hours before the US-Israeli military operations. Its first transaction occurred at 08:07 Beijing time, with its final buy-in at 08:35. Three hours later, as the market probability skyrocketed, the account ultimately realized a 4x return, earning $120k. The other account, wan123, wagered on the US strike at an average price of 10.8¢, netting a profit of $201.2k.
Currently, both the IDF and the US have announced that the elimination of Iran's senior leadership has been largely completed. Trump revealed that Iran's "new leadership" has expressed a willingness to resume negotiations; he personally agreed to hold a dialogue and bluntly stated that some Iranian officials involved in negotiations over the past few weeks "are no longer around."
However, the statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi remains tough and pessimistic. He emphasized that Iran's military counter-attack capabilities have not been damaged and that the speed of retaliation will be faster than during the conflict in June of last year. Regarding peace talks, Araghchi expressed deep skepticism, accusing the US of repeatedly launching attacks just as negotiation progress was being made, making diplomatic mediation "a very painful experience."
Accounts:
0xdde15ebd95330ce69136dc0ccd810d22382e02c5
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Total Position: $68k
-------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts that previously earned over $100k in profits by betting on the "US strikes Iran" outcome have collectively invested $68k wagering that "the US and Iran will reach a ceasefire this month." The current probability for a ceasefire stands at 56%.
Among them, dicedicedice is a new account registered just hours before the US-Israeli military operations. Its first transaction occurred at 08:07 Beijing time, with its final buy-in at 08:35. Three hours later, as the market probability skyrocketed, the account ultimately realized a 4x return, earning $120k. The other account, wan123, wagered on the US strike at an average price of 10.8¢, netting a profit of $201.2k.
Currently, both the IDF and the US have announced that the elimination of Iran's senior leadership has been largely completed. Trump revealed that Iran's "new leadership" has expressed a willingness to resume negotiations; he personally agreed to hold a dialogue and bluntly stated that some Iranian officials involved in negotiations over the past few weeks "are no longer around."
However, the statement from Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi remains tough and pessimistic. He emphasized that Iran's military counter-attack capabilities have not been damaged and that the speed of retaliation will be faster than during the conflict in June of last year. Regarding peace talks, Araghchi expressed deep skepticism, accusing the US of repeatedly launching attacks just as negotiation progress was being made, making diplomatic mediation "a very painful experience."
Accounts:
0xdde15ebd95330ce69136dc0ccd810d22382e02c5
0xde7be6d489bce070a959e0cb813128ae659b5f4b
Total Position: $68k
-------------------------------
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New Address Bets $18k on DeepSeek V4 Releasing Before March 15
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address has wagered a total of $18k over the past 24 hours that "DeepSeek V4 will be released before March 15." The average entry price was 62.9¢, with the current price holding at 63¢.
DeepSeek is reportedly preparing to launch its next-generation model, V4, in the near future. This model is expected to be the company's first native multimodal system, supporting text, images, and video. A key strategic focus for V4 is optimization for domestic Chinese chips, a move intended to reduce reliance on American manufacturers like Nvidia. While reports from sources like Financial Times and Pandaily suggest a potential launch as early as "next week," an official release date has not yet been confirmed by the company.
Account:
0x61dc77aaa0b7d16c3422315a18ba8c92d842c316
Total Position: $18k
-----------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address has wagered a total of $18k over the past 24 hours that "DeepSeek V4 will be released before March 15." The average entry price was 62.9¢, with the current price holding at 63¢.
DeepSeek is reportedly preparing to launch its next-generation model, V4, in the near future. This model is expected to be the company's first native multimodal system, supporting text, images, and video. A key strategic focus for V4 is optimization for domestic Chinese chips, a move intended to reduce reliance on American manufacturers like Nvidia. While reports from sources like Financial Times and Pandaily suggest a potential launch as early as "next week," an official release date has not yet been confirmed by the company.
Account:
0x61dc77aaa0b7d16c3422315a18ba8c92d842c316
Total Position: $18k
-----------------------
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Account with 100% Political Win Rate Bets $98k That Iran Will Not Block the Strait of Hormuz
On the prediction market Polymarket, an address with a 100% historical win rate in the political category has wagered $98k that "Iran will not block the Strait of Hormuz." Of this total, $66.5k is specifically bet on the outcome that "Iran will not block the Strait of Hormuz by March 31."
The Strait of Hormuz carries between 17 million and 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for approximately one-fifth of global oil trade, making it one of the world's most critical energy transit corridors. Although the region has seen numerous military conflicts and shipping disruptions, the Strait has never been completely blocked in modern history—not even during the intense "Tanker War" phase of the Iran-Iraq War. The waterway is not only vital for Iran's own oil export security but also serves as the core node connecting Middle Eastern producers to global markets; its stability directly dictates global energy prices and the geopolitical landscape.
Today, Polymarket updated this market with additional rules, specifying two primary triggers for a "Yes" (blocked) resolution:
IMF PortWatch Data: If the 7-day moving average of vessel counts on a given day drops by ≥80% compared to the 7-day average from 30 days prior, and this decline is directly caused by actions taken by the Iranian regime.
Credible Confirmation: Consistent reports from credible media or government sources confirming that Iran has effectively interrupted maritime traffic in the Strait.
Account: 0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23
Total Position: $98k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an address with a 100% historical win rate in the political category has wagered $98k that "Iran will not block the Strait of Hormuz." Of this total, $66.5k is specifically bet on the outcome that "Iran will not block the Strait of Hormuz by March 31."
The Strait of Hormuz carries between 17 million and 20 million barrels of oil daily, accounting for approximately one-fifth of global oil trade, making it one of the world's most critical energy transit corridors. Although the region has seen numerous military conflicts and shipping disruptions, the Strait has never been completely blocked in modern history—not even during the intense "Tanker War" phase of the Iran-Iraq War. The waterway is not only vital for Iran's own oil export security but also serves as the core node connecting Middle Eastern producers to global markets; its stability directly dictates global energy prices and the geopolitical landscape.
Today, Polymarket updated this market with additional rules, specifying two primary triggers for a "Yes" (blocked) resolution:
IMF PortWatch Data: If the 7-day moving average of vessel counts on a given day drops by ≥80% compared to the 7-day average from 30 days prior, and this decline is directly caused by actions taken by the Iranian regime.
Credible Confirmation: Consistent reports from credible media or government sources confirming that Iran has effectively interrupted maritime traffic in the Strait.
Account: 0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23
Total Position: $98k
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New Address Bets $13.1k That Opinion Will Launch Token on March 5
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address has wagered a total of $13.1k over the past 24 hours that the "Opinion token will launch on March 5." The average entry price was 80¢, and the current price has risen to 91¢.
Opinion Labs recently completed its Season 1 (S1) snapshot and immediately launched the S2 + "Double Dip" event, which is scheduled to run until March 15. This type of operational timing—launching a high-intensity short-term campaign immediately after a snapshot—typically aligns with a TGE (Token Generation Event) window of 1 to 7 days. The project’s founder also posted on X regarding "major rewards for S2 loyal users," hinting at sustained incentives post-launch. However, as of now, there is no official confirmation validating March 5 as the specific launch date.
Account: 0x1e30beef604c1e02094d2c0422c8597e5658d732
Total Position: $13.1k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new address has wagered a total of $13.1k over the past 24 hours that the "Opinion token will launch on March 5." The average entry price was 80¢, and the current price has risen to 91¢.
Opinion Labs recently completed its Season 1 (S1) snapshot and immediately launched the S2 + "Double Dip" event, which is scheduled to run until March 15. This type of operational timing—launching a high-intensity short-term campaign immediately after a snapshot—typically aligns with a TGE (Token Generation Event) window of 1 to 7 days. The project’s founder also posted on X regarding "major rewards for S2 loyal users," hinting at sustained incentives post-launch. However, as of now, there is no official confirmation validating March 5 as the specific launch date.
Account: 0x1e30beef604c1e02094d2c0422c8597e5658d732
Total Position: $13.1k
---------------------------------
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Two High-Win-Rate Accounts Wager $6.7k That Iran Will Strike Cyprus in March
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts with high historical win rates have collectively invested $6.7k on "Yes" for the market: "Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?" The current probability for this outcome stands at 33%.
Of these two accounts:
cashy has a 72% win rate across 597 trades in the geopolitical section.
0x6992 maintains a 75% win rate across 151 trades specifically in Iran-related markets.
In the current round of retaliatory actions, fire from Iran and its proxies has already impacted several neighboring countries (such as missile launches toward Qatar and direct exchanges with Israel). Cyprus hosts large British Sovereign Base Areas (SBAs), such as RAF Akrotiri, which have frequently served as staging grounds for intercepting Iranian missiles or as springboards for fighter jets. Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy in Lebanon, previously issued public warnings to Cyprus, stating that it would face direct military strikes if it assisted Israel or U.S./UK forces in targeted military operations.
A primary reason the odds remain relatively low is that Cyprus is an EU member state; a direct kinetic strike on its territory would likely pull the entire European Union and the United Kingdom formally into the conflict. Given that Iran’s top military and political leadership was recently decimated by U.S.-Israeli strikes and the regime faces an existential crisis, many analysts believe that expanding the front to proactively provoke the entire Western bloc lacks strategic rationality.
Accounts:
0x6992d56559dd30b5b5d0f5ca3d5427f9e94e6c1d
0x8f42ae0a01c0383c7ca8bd060b86a645ee74b88f
Total Position: $6.7k
------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts with high historical win rates have collectively invested $6.7k on "Yes" for the market: "Will Iran strike Cyprus in March?" The current probability for this outcome stands at 33%.
Of these two accounts:
cashy has a 72% win rate across 597 trades in the geopolitical section.
0x6992 maintains a 75% win rate across 151 trades specifically in Iran-related markets.
In the current round of retaliatory actions, fire from Iran and its proxies has already impacted several neighboring countries (such as missile launches toward Qatar and direct exchanges with Israel). Cyprus hosts large British Sovereign Base Areas (SBAs), such as RAF Akrotiri, which have frequently served as staging grounds for intercepting Iranian missiles or as springboards for fighter jets. Hezbollah, an Iranian proxy in Lebanon, previously issued public warnings to Cyprus, stating that it would face direct military strikes if it assisted Israel or U.S./UK forces in targeted military operations.
A primary reason the odds remain relatively low is that Cyprus is an EU member state; a direct kinetic strike on its territory would likely pull the entire European Union and the United Kingdom formally into the conflict. Given that Iran’s top military and political leadership was recently decimated by U.S.-Israeli strikes and the regime faces an existential crisis, many analysts believe that expanding the front to proactively provoke the entire Western bloc lacks strategic rationality.
Accounts:
0x6992d56559dd30b5b5d0f5ca3d5427f9e94e6c1d
0x8f42ae0a01c0383c7ca8bd060b86a645ee74b88f
Total Position: $6.7k
------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN