Political Bettor with 65% Win Rate Wagers $3k on DHS Shutdown Ending Before April
On the prediction market Polymarket, a seasoned political bettor with a 65% win rate (across 454 settled trades) has wagered $3k on "No" in the market "Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31?" Currently, the probability of the shutdown extending into April stands at 53%.
The partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began on February 14, 2026. The crisis was triggered by the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti, a Minneapolis ICU nurse and legal firearm owner, by federal agents during a January 24 operation. Senate Democrats have since blocked the DHS annual funding bill, demanding sweeping reforms to border enforcement and transparency regarding federal use of force.
Key factors influencing this market include:
A "Partial" Crisis: Unlike total government shutdowns, this is a targeted funding lapse affecting only DHS. Crucially, CBP and ICE are reportedly utilizing massive "reconciliation funds" (approximately $46.5 billion) from the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed in 2025. This allows border wall construction and core enforcement to continue, reducing the administration's immediate pressure to compromise.
The World Cup Deadline: While enforcement continues, FEMA grants—which manage the $625 million security investment for the 2026 FIFA World Cup—have been frozen. Host city officials from Miami and Kansas City testified this week that they face a "30-day deadline" before being forced to cancel fan festivals and scaled-back security preparations.
Senate Gridlock: Ending the shutdown requires 60 votes in the Senate. Analysts believe the mounting pressure from host cities and the approaching April 1 deadline for critical tournament infrastructure may force a bipartisan compromise within the next five weeks.
Account:
0xaab9f5e600a5dd88fe3a6f93313b180f6220a08d
Total Position: $3k
-------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a seasoned political bettor with a 65% win rate (across 454 settled trades) has wagered $3k on "No" in the market "Will the DHS shutdown end after March 31?" Currently, the probability of the shutdown extending into April stands at 53%.
The partial shutdown of the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) began on February 14, 2026. The crisis was triggered by the fatal shooting of Alex Pretti, a Minneapolis ICU nurse and legal firearm owner, by federal agents during a January 24 operation. Senate Democrats have since blocked the DHS annual funding bill, demanding sweeping reforms to border enforcement and transparency regarding federal use of force.
Key factors influencing this market include:
A "Partial" Crisis: Unlike total government shutdowns, this is a targeted funding lapse affecting only DHS. Crucially, CBP and ICE are reportedly utilizing massive "reconciliation funds" (approximately $46.5 billion) from the "One Big Beautiful Bill Act" passed in 2025. This allows border wall construction and core enforcement to continue, reducing the administration's immediate pressure to compromise.
The World Cup Deadline: While enforcement continues, FEMA grants—which manage the $625 million security investment for the 2026 FIFA World Cup—have been frozen. Host city officials from Miami and Kansas City testified this week that they face a "30-day deadline" before being forced to cancel fan festivals and scaled-back security preparations.
Senate Gridlock: Ending the shutdown requires 60 votes in the Senate. Analysts believe the mounting pressure from host cities and the approaching April 1 deadline for critical tournament infrastructure may force a bipartisan compromise within the next five weeks.
Account:
0xaab9f5e600a5dd88fe3a6f93313b180f6220a08d
Total Position: $3k
-------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two New Accounts Wager $164.5k on US Strike Against Iran as Diplomatic Deadline Looms
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new accounts have wagered a combined $164.5k across multiple contracts predicting a US military strike on Iran before February 28, March 15, and March 31. Currently, the probability of a strike occurring before the end of this month (February 28) stands at 9%, though it has seen sharp volatility following recent high-stakes activity.
This surge in betting coincides with a critical juncture in US-Iran relations:
Geneva "Last-Ditch" Talks: Indirect negotiations resumed in Geneva today (February 26), led by White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. These talks are widely characterized by diplomats as the "last chance" to avert a major conflict.
The 10-Day Ultimatum: The Trump administration previously established a roughly 10-day deadline (beginning February 19) for Iran to demonstrate a verifiable commitment to "zero enrichment."
Gang of Eight Briefing: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe delivered a classified briefing to the congressional "Gang of Eight" on Tuesday. Such rare, high-level briefings often serve as a precursor to significant military operations, signaling that plans have reached an actionable stage.
Military Posture: The US has assembled its largest concentration of air and naval power in the region since 2003, with two carrier strike groups—led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford—now positioned within striking distance.
While Trump stated in his State of the Union address on Tuesday that he prefers a diplomatic solution, he emphasized that the US will "never allow" Tehran to possess a nuclear weapon, accusing the regime of "pursuing sinister ambitions" despite previous strikes on its infrastructure.
Accounts:
0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23
0x1caa6a7ad0c6916aef7b67946de2e57ad24846a0
Total Position: $164.5k
--------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new accounts have wagered a combined $164.5k across multiple contracts predicting a US military strike on Iran before February 28, March 15, and March 31. Currently, the probability of a strike occurring before the end of this month (February 28) stands at 9%, though it has seen sharp volatility following recent high-stakes activity.
This surge in betting coincides with a critical juncture in US-Iran relations:
Geneva "Last-Ditch" Talks: Indirect negotiations resumed in Geneva today (February 26), led by White House envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner. These talks are widely characterized by diplomats as the "last chance" to avert a major conflict.
The 10-Day Ultimatum: The Trump administration previously established a roughly 10-day deadline (beginning February 19) for Iran to demonstrate a verifiable commitment to "zero enrichment."
Gang of Eight Briefing: Secretary of State Marco Rubio and CIA Director John Ratcliffe delivered a classified briefing to the congressional "Gang of Eight" on Tuesday. Such rare, high-level briefings often serve as a precursor to significant military operations, signaling that plans have reached an actionable stage.
Military Posture: The US has assembled its largest concentration of air and naval power in the region since 2003, with two carrier strike groups—led by the USS Abraham Lincoln and the USS Gerald R. Ford—now positioned within striking distance.
While Trump stated in his State of the Union address on Tuesday that he prefers a diplomatic solution, he emphasized that the US will "never allow" Tehran to possess a nuclear weapon, accusing the regime of "pursuing sinister ambitions" despite previous strikes on its infrastructure.
Accounts:
0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23
0x1caa6a7ad0c6916aef7b67946de2e57ad24846a0
Total Position: $164.5k
--------------------------------
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Polymarket Gets Creative with White House Press Briefing "Bingo" Market
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new entertainment-focused market has launched: "Will the next White House Press Briefing mention enough words to complete a Bingo?"
The gameplay for this market perfectly replicates a classic 5x5 Bingo matrix. Polymarket has designed a custom card featuring 25 squares. Excluding the traditional "Free Space" in the center, each square corresponds to a specific word or phrase—such as "Tariffs," "Border," "Fake News," or "Historic"—that Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt might say during the next briefing.
The settlement rules are straightforward: if any single horizontal row, vertical column, or diagonal line (totaling 5 squares) is completed by the speaker mentioning those specific terms, the market will resolve to "Yes." This "gamified" approach to political coverage has quickly gained traction among degens, turning a routine government briefing into a high-stakes scavenger hunt for specific buzzwords.
-------------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new entertainment-focused market has launched: "Will the next White House Press Briefing mention enough words to complete a Bingo?"
The gameplay for this market perfectly replicates a classic 5x5 Bingo matrix. Polymarket has designed a custom card featuring 25 squares. Excluding the traditional "Free Space" in the center, each square corresponds to a specific word or phrase—such as "Tariffs," "Border," "Fake News," or "Historic"—that Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt might say during the next briefing.
The settlement rules are straightforward: if any single horizontal row, vertical column, or diagonal line (totaling 5 squares) is completed by the speaker mentioning those specific terms, the market will resolve to "Yes." This "gamified" approach to political coverage has quickly gained traction among degens, turning a routine government briefing into a high-stakes scavenger hunt for specific buzzwords.
-------------------------------------
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29 New Accounts Flood ZachXBT Investigation Market; Over $448k Wagered in 5 Hours
In the last five hours, at least 29 new accounts have swarmed the Polymarket event "Which crypto firm will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?" focusing heavily on Axiom. Within this group, five new accounts wagered over $200k on "Yes," while 24 others bet a combined $248k on "No."
The largest single "Yes" position from a new address (0x054e) reached $212.5k, while the largest new "No" address (0xc907) put up $45k. Trading volume for the Axiom market has now surged to $5.5M, officially overtaking Meteora ($3M) as the most active segment of the investigation.
There are currently three prevailing theories regarding this massive influx of capital:
The "Insider Leak" Theory: High-conviction capital has moved in after allegedly obtaining fragments of ZachXBT's report ahead of its scheduled release.
The "Team Confidence" Theory: Large "No" bets may originate from the Axiom team or associated whales to signal innocence and stabilize market sentiment.
The "PR Hedge" Strategy: Some suggest firms may be buying "Yes" as a form of "PR insurance"—if the report is damaging, the Polymarket winnings provide a financial buffer to fund crisis management and legal defense.
Accounts:
0x054ec2f0ccfdae941886a3ed306635068c716639
0xc907f73eade151b451d970d79a39b13a7b18e852
Total Position: Over $448k
----------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
In the last five hours, at least 29 new accounts have swarmed the Polymarket event "Which crypto firm will ZachXBT expose for insider trading?" focusing heavily on Axiom. Within this group, five new accounts wagered over $200k on "Yes," while 24 others bet a combined $248k on "No."
The largest single "Yes" position from a new address (0x054e) reached $212.5k, while the largest new "No" address (0xc907) put up $45k. Trading volume for the Axiom market has now surged to $5.5M, officially overtaking Meteora ($3M) as the most active segment of the investigation.
There are currently three prevailing theories regarding this massive influx of capital:
The "Insider Leak" Theory: High-conviction capital has moved in after allegedly obtaining fragments of ZachXBT's report ahead of its scheduled release.
The "Team Confidence" Theory: Large "No" bets may originate from the Axiom team or associated whales to signal innocence and stabilize market sentiment.
The "PR Hedge" Strategy: Some suggest firms may be buying "Yes" as a form of "PR insurance"—if the report is damaging, the Polymarket winnings provide a financial buffer to fund crisis management and legal defense.
Accounts:
0x054ec2f0ccfdae941886a3ed306635068c716639
0xc907f73eade151b451d970d79a39b13a7b18e852
Total Position: Over $448k
----------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two Pro Accounts Bet $31k on GPT-5.3 Releasing Within 3 Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, two professional accounts heavily involved in the OpenAI category have wagered a combined $31k on "Yes" for the market "GPT-5.3 to be released by February 28." The current probability for a release stands at 26%.
The track records of these specific accounts suggest high conviction based on prior successes in the sector:
Account 0xc6dd: Has wagered $18,000. This user has a cumulative profit of $52,000 from OpenAI-related predictions alone, which accounts for one-third of their total lifetime profit.
Account 0x0932: A new address that wagered $13,000. It is linked to another Polymarket account (0x7131) which boasts a 72% win rate on OpenAI-specific trades.
Context & Market Sentiment:
Rumors are reaching a fever pitch across Reddit and X, with several leaks pointing to Thursday, February 26 (today) as the potential launch date. Some reports mention a model codenamed "Garlic" that focuses on "cognitive density" and reasoning over raw scale.
While OpenAI released GPT-5.3-Codex on February 5 and Codex-Spark on February 12, the Polymarket rules specify that these specialized coding versions do not count for the resolution of this particular market. Traders are betting that a flagship, general-purpose version of GPT-5.3—possibly featuring the rumored "Citron Mode"—is about to drop.
Accounts:
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
0x093209ec1d4baa116a019c9dc63142f3256ccc39
Total Position: $31k
--------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two professional accounts heavily involved in the OpenAI category have wagered a combined $31k on "Yes" for the market "GPT-5.3 to be released by February 28." The current probability for a release stands at 26%.
The track records of these specific accounts suggest high conviction based on prior successes in the sector:
Account 0xc6dd: Has wagered $18,000. This user has a cumulative profit of $52,000 from OpenAI-related predictions alone, which accounts for one-third of their total lifetime profit.
Account 0x0932: A new address that wagered $13,000. It is linked to another Polymarket account (0x7131) which boasts a 72% win rate on OpenAI-specific trades.
Context & Market Sentiment:
Rumors are reaching a fever pitch across Reddit and X, with several leaks pointing to Thursday, February 26 (today) as the potential launch date. Some reports mention a model codenamed "Garlic" that focuses on "cognitive density" and reasoning over raw scale.
While OpenAI released GPT-5.3-Codex on February 5 and Codex-Spark on February 12, the Polymarket rules specify that these specialized coding versions do not count for the resolution of this particular market. Traders are betting that a flagship, general-purpose version of GPT-5.3—possibly featuring the rumored "Citron Mode"—is about to drop.
Accounts:
0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f
0x093209ec1d4baa116a019c9dc63142f3256ccc39
Total Position: $31k
--------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
10 New Addresses Bet $17.4k on HyperLend FDV Surpassing $20M on Launch Day
On the prediction market Polymarket, ten new addresses flooded the market over a two-hour window today, wagering a combined $17.4k that "HyperLend's FDV will exceed $20M on its first day of trading." The probability of this outcome currently sits at 62%.
HyperLend is a core lending protocol built on Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM. On January 20, 2026, the team unveiled its $HPL tokenomics, allocating 30.14% of the 1 billion total supply to ecosystem incentives and 25% to genesis participants. The project recently secured $1.7 million in funding from investors including RockawayX, No Limit Holdings, and Kraken Ventures (Triton Capital).
According to recent data from CoinMarketCap, the $HPL token is currently trading at approximately $0.0174, giving it a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of $17.4M. For the "Yes" bet to settle, the price must rise above $0.02 within the first 24 hours of its official market debut. Traders appear to be betting on the "Hyperliquid ecosystem effect," expecting a surge in liquidity as the protocol integrates native credit rails for the chain.
Accounts:
0x139f3184886c2c6bb7c27bbc2c35faf4babfc148
0x19b7a08c97498b6090f68cbd175cede2c3b16e18
0xfc2f50bc5c5c247acccb28cff38336b61516a206
0xfb5751737d23abbecd3aa1e19409cacd7aed55b1
Total Position: $17.4k
-----------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, ten new addresses flooded the market over a two-hour window today, wagering a combined $17.4k that "HyperLend's FDV will exceed $20M on its first day of trading." The probability of this outcome currently sits at 62%.
HyperLend is a core lending protocol built on Hyperliquid’s HyperEVM. On January 20, 2026, the team unveiled its $HPL tokenomics, allocating 30.14% of the 1 billion total supply to ecosystem incentives and 25% to genesis participants. The project recently secured $1.7 million in funding from investors including RockawayX, No Limit Holdings, and Kraken Ventures (Triton Capital).
According to recent data from CoinMarketCap, the $HPL token is currently trading at approximately $0.0174, giving it a Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) of $17.4M. For the "Yes" bet to settle, the price must rise above $0.02 within the first 24 hours of its official market debut. Traders appear to be betting on the "Hyperliquid ecosystem effect," expecting a surge in liquidity as the protocol integrates native credit rails for the chain.
Accounts:
0x139f3184886c2c6bb7c27bbc2c35faf4babfc148
0x19b7a08c97498b6090f68cbd175cede2c3b16e18
0xfc2f50bc5c5c247acccb28cff38336b61516a206
0xfb5751737d23abbecd3aa1e19409cacd7aed55b1
Total Position: $17.4k
-----------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two New Accounts Wager $59.1k on US Strike Against Iran Before Feb 28
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have wagered a combined $59.1k over the past 24 hours on the outcome "US to strike Iran before February 28." The betting activity includes a $10k opening position from a first-time trader and a $33.2k follow-on bet from a new account first reported yesterday.
This surge in "Yes" betting comes as the geopolitical clock winds down toward the Trump administration's unofficial month-end deadline:
Diplomatic Stalemate: Indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman, concluded on Thursday, February 26. While Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi cited "significant progress" and announced a transition to technical-level talks in Vienna next week, no formal deal was reached.
Irreconcilable Gaps: Despite the "hopeful" tone from mediators, Iranian state media reaffirmed Tehran’s refusal to dismantle its nuclear facilities or transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to the U.S.—two core demands from the American delegation led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Dual-Carrier Threat: The diplomatic efforts are playing out against a backdrop of historic U.S. military mobilization. The USS Gerald R. Ford departed Crete on February 26 to join the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, completing a dual-carrier strike force. Additionally, F-22 fighter jets have been deployed to Israel, and U.S. forces in Bahrain have reportedly reduced non-essential personnel.
Ultimatum Pressure: With the February 28 deadline just hours away, market participants are weighing whether the scheduled Vienna talks are a genuine diplomatic path or if the lack of a "breakthrough" in Geneva will trigger the "consequences" previously threatened by President Trump.
Accounts:
0x1caa6a7ad0c6916aef7b67946de2e57ad24846a0
0x56efadc9defe5b7a21af751e0d026f2cf54136db
Total Position: $59.1k
-------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, two accounts have wagered a combined $59.1k over the past 24 hours on the outcome "US to strike Iran before February 28." The betting activity includes a $10k opening position from a first-time trader and a $33.2k follow-on bet from a new account first reported yesterday.
This surge in "Yes" betting comes as the geopolitical clock winds down toward the Trump administration's unofficial month-end deadline:
Diplomatic Stalemate: Indirect nuclear negotiations in Geneva, mediated by Oman, concluded on Thursday, February 26. While Omani Foreign Minister Badr Albusaidi cited "significant progress" and announced a transition to technical-level talks in Vienna next week, no formal deal was reached.
Irreconcilable Gaps: Despite the "hopeful" tone from mediators, Iranian state media reaffirmed Tehran’s refusal to dismantle its nuclear facilities or transfer its enriched uranium stockpile to the U.S.—two core demands from the American delegation led by Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner.
Dual-Carrier Threat: The diplomatic efforts are playing out against a backdrop of historic U.S. military mobilization. The USS Gerald R. Ford departed Crete on February 26 to join the USS Abraham Lincoln in the Arabian Sea, completing a dual-carrier strike force. Additionally, F-22 fighter jets have been deployed to Israel, and U.S. forces in Bahrain have reportedly reduced non-essential personnel.
Ultimatum Pressure: With the February 28 deadline just hours away, market participants are weighing whether the scheduled Vienna talks are a genuine diplomatic path or if the lack of a "breakthrough" in Geneva will trigger the "consequences" previously threatened by President Trump.
Accounts:
0x1caa6a7ad0c6916aef7b67946de2e57ad24846a0
0x56efadc9defe5b7a21af751e0d026f2cf54136db
Total Position: $59.1k
-------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
New Market Added for Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire: Odds for April 30 Resolution at 10%
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new branch has been added to the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire series: "Will a ceasefire be reached by April 30, 2026?" This new timeframe serves as a mid-point between existing markets for March 31 and June 30, with current odds sitting at 10%.
The market's debut follows a day of high-intensity military and diplomatic activity:
Massive Aerial Escalation: On February 26, Russia launched one of its largest strikes of the year, firing over 420 drones and 39 missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure and residential areas. The attack caused significant damage in eight regions, including Kyiv and Poltava, serving as a grim backdrop to the diplomatic efforts in Switzerland.
Geneva Negotiations: Simultaneously, U.S. and Ukrainian representatives concluded a round of bilateral talks in Geneva. While a definitive breakthrough on core political issues remains elusive, the discussions focused on prisoner exchanges (with a recent swap of 314 soldiers agreed upon earlier this month) and humanitarian corridors.
Strategic Flexibility from Washington: Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) special gathering in Kyiv, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff clarified that Washington is "not imposing anything" on Ukraine. He suggested that complex territorial disputes—one of the last remaining "sticking points"—might be set aside for a direct, high-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Proposed Trilateral Summit: Witkoff also hinted at the possibility of a future trilateral summit involving the leaders of the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia to finalize a "Prosperity Agreement" and secure long-term stability for the region.
Despite the optimistic tone from U.S. negotiators, the Kremlin has remained cautious, stating that a leader-level summit should only occur during the final stages of a finalized peace deal.
-----------------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new branch has been added to the Russia-Ukraine ceasefire series: "Will a ceasefire be reached by April 30, 2026?" This new timeframe serves as a mid-point between existing markets for March 31 and June 30, with current odds sitting at 10%.
The market's debut follows a day of high-intensity military and diplomatic activity:
Massive Aerial Escalation: On February 26, Russia launched one of its largest strikes of the year, firing over 420 drones and 39 missiles at Ukrainian energy infrastructure and residential areas. The attack caused significant damage in eight regions, including Kyiv and Poltava, serving as a grim backdrop to the diplomatic efforts in Switzerland.
Geneva Negotiations: Simultaneously, U.S. and Ukrainian representatives concluded a round of bilateral talks in Geneva. While a definitive breakthrough on core political issues remains elusive, the discussions focused on prisoner exchanges (with a recent swap of 314 soldiers agreed upon earlier this month) and humanitarian corridors.
Strategic Flexibility from Washington: Speaking at the Yalta European Strategy (YES) special gathering in Kyiv, U.S. Special Envoy Steve Witkoff clarified that Washington is "not imposing anything" on Ukraine. He suggested that complex territorial disputes—one of the last remaining "sticking points"—might be set aside for a direct, high-level meeting between Zelenskyy and Putin.
Proposed Trilateral Summit: Witkoff also hinted at the possibility of a future trilateral summit involving the leaders of the U.S., Ukraine, and Russia to finalize a "Prosperity Agreement" and secure long-term stability for the region.
Despite the optimistic tone from U.S. negotiators, the Kremlin has remained cautious, stating that a leader-level summit should only occur during the final stages of a finalized peace deal.
-----------------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Political Account with 13-Win Streak Bets $9.3k on Republicans Winning 2026 Senate Control
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account with a perfect record of 13 wins in the local elections category has wagered $9.3k that "Republicans will control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections." The current probability for this option is 60%.
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3 of that year, with final results typically determined within days after Election Day. Out of the 100 Senate seats, at least 51 are required for control. This midterm cycle will see 33 regular seats up for election. Because several key seats are currently located in traditionally "Red" or "Swing" states, the Republican Party only needs to hold its current base to easily maintain its majority advantage.
Account:
0xef2f91f75d1878a09ecd42a376d084d3bc808b9c
Total Position: $9.3k
-------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account with a perfect record of 13 wins in the local elections category has wagered $9.3k that "Republicans will control the Senate after the 2026 midterm elections." The current probability for this option is 60%.
The 2026 U.S. midterm elections will be held on November 3 of that year, with final results typically determined within days after Election Day. Out of the 100 Senate seats, at least 51 are required for control. This midterm cycle will see 33 regular seats up for election. Because several key seats are currently located in traditionally "Red" or "Swing" states, the Republican Party only needs to hold its current base to easily maintain its majority advantage.
Account:
0xef2f91f75d1878a09ecd42a376d084d3bc808b9c
Total Position: $9.3k
-------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Star Trader Pumps DeepSeek V4 "Pre-March 15" Release; Probability Spikes to 79% Before Profit-Taking
On the prediction market Polymarket, well-known star trader Car has moved heavily into the markets for "DeepSeek V4 to be released by March 15/March 31." This buying pressure caused the probability of a release before March 15 to skyrocket from 23% to a peak of 79% in a short window, before retracing to its current level of 38%.
This market movement appears to be driven by calculated sentiment signaling. After building their position, Car immediately posted in the Polymarket comments section, citing a Financial Times report (published today, February 28) stating that DeepSeek plans to launch its multimodal V4 model next week. However, after the surge in price, Car has already begun gradually offloading their shares to lock in profits.
It is important to note the strict settlement rules for this market: only a "flagship successor" to V3 released to the general public will trigger a "Yes" resolution. Derivative or scaled-down versions, such as V4-Lite or V4-Mini, do not satisfy the criteria for this specific contract.
Account:
0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, well-known star trader Car has moved heavily into the markets for "DeepSeek V4 to be released by March 15/March 31." This buying pressure caused the probability of a release before March 15 to skyrocket from 23% to a peak of 79% in a short window, before retracing to its current level of 38%.
This market movement appears to be driven by calculated sentiment signaling. After building their position, Car immediately posted in the Polymarket comments section, citing a Financial Times report (published today, February 28) stating that DeepSeek plans to launch its multimodal V4 model next week. However, after the surge in price, Car has already begun gradually offloading their shares to lock in profits.
It is important to note the strict settlement rules for this market: only a "flagship successor" to V3 released to the general public will trigger a "Yes" resolution. Derivative or scaled-down versions, such as V4-Lite or V4-Mini, do not satisfy the criteria for this specific contract.
Account:
0x7c3db723f1d4d8cb9c550095203b686cb11e5c6b
------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Four New Addresses Wager $66.5k on US Strike Against Iran Within Three Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses have wagered a combined $66.5k over the past 24 hours that the United States will launch a military strike on Iran within the next three days. Of this total, $55k is specifically bet on the outcome "US to strike Iran before March 1," a contract whose probability has surged to 22%.（now is 100%）
This aggressive betting follows a wave of urgent security alerts and embassy evacuations. Foreign ministries from countries including China, the UK, the US, Italy, India, and Poland have issued high-level warnings, urging their citizens to leave Iran immediately or avoid the region entirely. Reports indicate that several nations have already withdrawn non-essential diplomatic staff or shifted embassy operations to remote status, warning of a rapid deterioration in security, imminent flight disruptions, and the potential for total airspace closures.
These warnings coincide with the arrival of a massive US naval and air strike force in the region and the expiration of a de facto diplomatic deadline, as high-stakes negotiations in Geneva appear to have stalled without a breakthrough.
Accounts:
0x24321d12a64cb847650e306edfe817cfd1243ef5
0x962284d3ae323d0313895d97f22755b3b1ff538e
0xf5be02858d86213b0ac7fc7afbaf12fd5f26195a
0xe339a7ae48c52f5bfe64c6c5d0c80e0feb3ae337
Total Position: $66.5k
-------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses have wagered a combined $66.5k over the past 24 hours that the United States will launch a military strike on Iran within the next three days. Of this total, $55k is specifically bet on the outcome "US to strike Iran before March 1," a contract whose probability has surged to 22%.（now is 100%）
This aggressive betting follows a wave of urgent security alerts and embassy evacuations. Foreign ministries from countries including China, the UK, the US, Italy, India, and Poland have issued high-level warnings, urging their citizens to leave Iran immediately or avoid the region entirely. Reports indicate that several nations have already withdrawn non-essential diplomatic staff or shifted embassy operations to remote status, warning of a rapid deterioration in security, imminent flight disruptions, and the potential for total airspace closures.
These warnings coincide with the arrival of a massive US naval and air strike force in the region and the expiration of a de facto diplomatic deadline, as high-stakes negotiations in Geneva appear to have stalled without a breakthrough.
Accounts:
0x24321d12a64cb847650e306edfe817cfd1243ef5
0x962284d3ae323d0313895d97f22755b3b1ff538e
0xf5be02858d86213b0ac7fc7afbaf12fd5f26195a
0xe339a7ae48c52f5bfe64c6c5d0c80e0feb3ae337
Total Position: $66.5k
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PolyBeats（EN）
10 New Addresses Bet $17.4k on HyperLend FDV Surpassing $20M on Launch Day On the prediction market Polymarket, ten new addresses flooded the market over a two-hour window today, wagering a combined $17.4k that "HyperLend's FDV will exceed $20M on its first…
Update: HyperLend FDV Hits $20M in "Buzzer-Beater" Finish; Wagered Accounts Profit $8.2k
On the prediction market Polymarket, several previously reported accounts that bet on "HyperLend FDV exceeding $20M on its opening day" have collectively earned $8.2k in profits, as the market has officially settled as "Yes."
Based on token price movements, this settlement appears to have been influenced by suspected market manipulation driven by the prediction market itself. According to the rules, the market would resolve as "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) exceeded $20 million at exactly 4:00 PM the day after the token launch. With a total supply of 1 billion $HPL tokens, this meant the price had to be above $0.02 at the snapshot moment (4:00 PM ET).
$HPL launched on February 27. From five minutes after the opening until 3:57 PM on February 28, the price remained consistently below $0.02. However, in the final two minutes starting at 3:58 PM, the price suddenly surged from $0.017 to $0.0201—an 18% spike that allowed it to narrowly cross the settlement threshold at 4:00 PM.
Notably, excluding the initial 5-minute price discovery period at launch, this "buzzer-beater" price of $0.0201 stands as the all-time high for $HPL. Immediately after the Polymarket settlement conditions were met, $HPL crashed to as low as $0.012, representing a 41% decline.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, several previously reported accounts that bet on "HyperLend FDV exceeding $20M on its opening day" have collectively earned $8.2k in profits, as the market has officially settled as "Yes."
Based on token price movements, this settlement appears to have been influenced by suspected market manipulation driven by the prediction market itself. According to the rules, the market would resolve as "Yes" if the Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) exceeded $20 million at exactly 4:00 PM the day after the token launch. With a total supply of 1 billion $HPL tokens, this meant the price had to be above $0.02 at the snapshot moment (4:00 PM ET).
$HPL launched on February 27. From five minutes after the opening until 3:57 PM on February 28, the price remained consistently below $0.02. However, in the final two minutes starting at 3:58 PM, the price suddenly surged from $0.017 to $0.0201—an 18% spike that allowed it to narrowly cross the settlement threshold at 4:00 PM.
Notably, excluding the initial 5-minute price discovery period at launch, this "buzzer-beater" price of $0.0201 stands as the all-time high for $HPL. Immediately after the Polymarket settlement conditions were met, $HPL crashed to as low as $0.012, representing a 41% decline.
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ill Clinton Testifies Behind Closed Doors in Epstein Case; "No Qualifying Event" Settlement Probability at 98%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the specialized forecast "What will Bill Clinton say during his Epstein hearing?" includes 21 popular word options such as "Epstein" and "President." However, the trigger probability for these options is currently below 3%, while the probability for "No Qualifying Event" has reached as high as 98%.
Around February 27 local time, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton went to a Congressional committee to testify regarding the investigation into the Jeffrey Epstein case.
This extreme probability distribution is a direct result of the nature of the testimony and the market's strict settlement rules: since the testimony was conducted behind closed doors, the details of the speech are unavailable to the public. Consequently, unless the Congressional committee releases specific transcripts or video of the testimony before the March 5 deadline, the market will settle as "No Qualifying Event."
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the specialized forecast "What will Bill Clinton say during his Epstein hearing?" includes 21 popular word options such as "Epstein" and "President." However, the trigger probability for these options is currently below 3%, while the probability for "No Qualifying Event" has reached as high as 98%.
Around February 27 local time, Bill Clinton and Hillary Clinton went to a Congressional committee to testify regarding the investigation into the Jeffrey Epstein case.
This extreme probability distribution is a direct result of the nature of the testimony and the market's strict settlement rules: since the testimony was conducted behind closed doors, the details of the speech are unavailable to the public. Consequently, unless the Congressional committee releases specific transcripts or video of the testimony before the March 5 deadline, the market will settle as "No Qualifying Event."
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Media Outlets Report Joint US-Israeli Strikes on Iran; Probability of "US Strikes First" Rebounds to 33%
On the prediction market Polymarket, news of "joint US-Israeli strikes" has significantly impacted the betting pool for "Who will strike Iran first: US or Israel?" The probability of the United States being the first to strike has surged from a low of 4.5% to its current level of 33%.
The market movement follows a flurry of breaking reports. China Daily, citing Israeli media, issued a flash update stating that "joint Israeli-American attacks have been launched against Iran."
According to the market rules, if both countries launch an attack simultaneously, or if the chronological order of the strikes remains ambiguous, the market will settle by splitting the pool 50-50 between both outcomes.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, news of "joint US-Israeli strikes" has significantly impacted the betting pool for "Who will strike Iran first: US or Israel?" The probability of the United States being the first to strike has surged from a low of 4.5% to its current level of 33%.
The market movement follows a flurry of breaking reports. China Daily, citing Israeli media, issued a flash update stating that "joint Israeli-American attacks have been launched against Iran."
According to the market rules, if both countries launch an attack simultaneously, or if the chronological order of the strikes remains ambiguous, the market will settle by splitting the pool 50-50 between both outcomes.
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Xinhua Reports Iran Launches Missiles at Israel; Probability of Retaliatory Strike Market Surges to 95%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that "Iran will attack Israel by February 28" has skyrocketed to 95%.
Xinhua News Agency has just released a flash report stating that the Israeli military has detected missiles launched from Iran toward its territory.
The settlement rules for this market are strictly defined:
Scope of Attack: The strike must be initiated by Iran using missiles, drones, or aircraft and must "substantially hit" Israel's land territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial waters).
Excluded Forms: Attacks via artillery, ground invasions, or cyber warfare do not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Interceptions Do Not Count: If a missile or drone is intercepted by air defense systems, the market will not settle as "Yes," even if falling debris from the interception lands within Israeli territory or causes damage.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that "Iran will attack Israel by February 28" has skyrocketed to 95%.
Xinhua News Agency has just released a flash report stating that the Israeli military has detected missiles launched from Iran toward its territory.
The settlement rules for this market are strictly defined:
Scope of Attack: The strike must be initiated by Iran using missiles, drones, or aircraft and must "substantially hit" Israel's land territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial waters).
Excluded Forms: Attacks via artillery, ground invasions, or cyber warfare do not qualify for a "Yes" resolution.
Interceptions Do Not Count: If a missile or drone is intercepted by air defense systems, the market will not settle as "Yes," even if falling debris from the interception lands within Israeli territory or causes damage.
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Iran Launches Missiles at Qatar; "Attack on Qatar" Market Probability Rises to 75% Following Interceptions
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the "Will Iran attack Qatar by February 28?" market has climbed to 75%.
In its "first wave of retaliation" following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran launched several ballistic missiles toward targets in the Gulf region. The Qatari Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense confirmed that at least two Iranian missiles flying over Qatari airspace were successfully intercepted by its Patriot missile defense systems. While local residents reported seeing flashes from the explosions, no ground damage or casualties have been reported, and officials describe the situation as "stable and secure."
However, because Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base—the largest American military facility in the Middle East—is considered a primary target, the U.S. Embassy in Qatar has issued an emergency security alert, instructing all embassy personnel and U.S. citizens in the country to "shelter in place." Iranian state media has warned that "more waves are coming."
Market Settlement Rules:
The rules for this market define a valid "attack" as a missile, drone, or aerial bomb substantially hitting Qatar's land territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial waters). Missiles intercepted by air defense systems do not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the "Will Iran attack Qatar by February 28?" market has climbed to 75%.
In its "first wave of retaliation" following joint U.S.-Israeli strikes, Iran launched several ballistic missiles toward targets in the Gulf region. The Qatari Ministry of Interior and Ministry of Defense confirmed that at least two Iranian missiles flying over Qatari airspace were successfully intercepted by its Patriot missile defense systems. While local residents reported seeing flashes from the explosions, no ground damage or casualties have been reported, and officials describe the situation as "stable and secure."
However, because Qatar's Al Udeid Air Base—the largest American military facility in the Middle East—is considered a primary target, the U.S. Embassy in Qatar has issued an emergency security alert, instructing all embassy personnel and U.S. citizens in the country to "shelter in place." Iranian state media has warned that "more waves are coming."
Market Settlement Rules:
The rules for this market define a valid "attack" as a missile, drone, or aerial bomb substantially hitting Qatar's land territory (including rivers, lakes, and ports, but excluding territorial waters). Missiles intercepted by air defense systems do not count toward a "Yes" resolution.
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Account that Earned $240k Betting on Government Shutdown Wagers $152k that Khamenei Will Not Step Down Before April
On the prediction market Polymarket, a professional account that accurately operated in the "When will the U.S. government shutdown end" market to earn a $240,000 profit has invested $152k wagering that "Khamenei will not step down/be ousted as the Supreme Leader of Iran before March 31." Currently, the probability of him stepping down is 44%.
The recent joint U.S.-Israeli strikes covered not only multiple nuclear facilities but also reached deep into downtown Tehran, including the areas surrounding Supreme Leader Khamenei's office. U.S. President Trump has issued a public statement clearly indicating that the goal of this military action is to topple the current Iranian regime.
The 86-year-old Khamenei has currently been emergency-transferred and placed in a highly secure underground air-raid bunker within Iran. It is claimed that, under strict security protection, he is commanding retaliatory actions against the U.S. and Israel alongside high-level members of the National Security Council. Despite persistent rumors in recent years regarding Khamenei's deteriorating health, as of now, there is no definitive official or intelligence evidence suggesting he was injured in the current airstrikes or is experiencing a sudden health crisis.
Account:
0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
Total Position: $152k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a professional account that accurately operated in the "When will the U.S. government shutdown end" market to earn a $240,000 profit has invested $152k wagering that "Khamenei will not step down/be ousted as the Supreme Leader of Iran before March 31." Currently, the probability of him stepping down is 44%.
The recent joint U.S.-Israeli strikes covered not only multiple nuclear facilities but also reached deep into downtown Tehran, including the areas surrounding Supreme Leader Khamenei's office. U.S. President Trump has issued a public statement clearly indicating that the goal of this military action is to topple the current Iranian regime.
The 86-year-old Khamenei has currently been emergency-transferred and placed in a highly secure underground air-raid bunker within Iran. It is claimed that, under strict security protection, he is commanding retaliatory actions against the U.S. and Israel alongside high-level members of the National Security Council. Despite persistent rumors in recent years regarding Khamenei's deteriorating health, as of now, there is no definitive official or intelligence evidence suggesting he was injured in the current airstrikes or is experiencing a sudden health crisis.
Account:
0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
Total Position: $152k
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US-Israeli Joint Operation Hits Militants in Iraq; "Attack on Iraq" Odds Skyrocket
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for "US to attack Iraq by February 28" surged from 1% to as high as 80% (currently 70%), while the probability for "Israel to attack Iraq by February 28" jumped from 2% to a peak of 95% (currently 90%).
Simultaneous with the massive joint airstrikes (codenamed "Epic Fury" by the US and "Lion's Roar" by Israel), US and Israeli forces launched kinetic strikes against pro-Iranian militia networks in Iraq. These strikes were intended as a preemptive measure to suppress coordinated retaliation from Iran's regional proxies.
According to latest reports from AFP and The National, during the same window as the strikes on Iran, the Jurf al-Nasr (formerly Jurf al-Sakher) military base—located approximately 60km southwest of Baghdad—was hit by missiles. The base is a core stronghold for the Iran-backed Shiite militia Kataeb Hezbollah. Internal sources within the militia confirmed that the strike killed at least two personnel and wounded five others.
In the wake of the strikes, Iraq's Ministry of Transport announced an emergency evacuation of all air traffic and a total closure of Iraqi airspace.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for "US to attack Iraq by February 28" surged from 1% to as high as 80% (currently 70%), while the probability for "Israel to attack Iraq by February 28" jumped from 2% to a peak of 95% (currently 90%).
Simultaneous with the massive joint airstrikes (codenamed "Epic Fury" by the US and "Lion's Roar" by Israel), US and Israeli forces launched kinetic strikes against pro-Iranian militia networks in Iraq. These strikes were intended as a preemptive measure to suppress coordinated retaliation from Iran's regional proxies.
According to latest reports from AFP and The National, during the same window as the strikes on Iran, the Jurf al-Nasr (formerly Jurf al-Sakher) military base—located approximately 60km southwest of Baghdad—was hit by missiles. The base is a core stronghold for the Iran-backed Shiite militia Kataeb Hezbollah. Internal sources within the militia confirmed that the strike killed at least two personnel and wounded five others.
In the wake of the strikes, Iraq's Ministry of Transport announced an emergency evacuation of all air traffic and a total closure of Iraqi airspace.
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Multiple Accounts Profit from US Strikes on Iran and Khamenei Ousting; 3 Early-Warning Accounts Earn $1.6M
On the prediction market Polymarket, over a dozen accounts have realized profits of over $50k each by accurately betting on two major events: "US strikes Iran" and "Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei to step down." The early positioning of the top three accounts was previously captured and broadcast by this channel. These three accounts have earned a combined profit of $1.6 million.
Among them, account 0x37d1 was confirmed at the time of the broadcast to have profited $256k from the 2025 US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The other two accounts are both new users with no prior trading history, with bets entirely concentrated on events related to strikes against Iran.
Accounts:
0x37d10ffb61998561c5f9fb941c42c952d8fb4e28 (Broadcast on the 24th)
0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23 (Broadcast on the 26th)
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a (Broadcast on the 2nd)
Total Profit: $1.6M
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On the prediction market Polymarket, over a dozen accounts have realized profits of over $50k each by accurately betting on two major events: "US strikes Iran" and "Iranian Supreme Leader Khamenei to step down." The early positioning of the top three accounts was previously captured and broadcast by this channel. These three accounts have earned a combined profit of $1.6 million.
Among them, account 0x37d1 was confirmed at the time of the broadcast to have profited $256k from the 2025 US-Israeli strikes on Iran. The other two accounts are both new users with no prior trading history, with bets entirely concentrated on events related to strikes against Iran.
Accounts:
0x37d10ffb61998561c5f9fb941c42c952d8fb4e28 (Broadcast on the 24th)
0x2974bd0059e48f215c391882976e0f1b4c8c9c23 (Broadcast on the 26th)
0x88c4919de76e526d55a32c1f8afb439dd1f1129a (Broadcast on the 2nd)
Total Profit: $1.6M
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6-0 Trader on Iran Markets Bets $13.8k on Regime Collapse This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, an account with a perfect 6-0 record in Iran-related forecasts has wagered $13.8k that the "Iranian regime will collapse by March 31." The current probability for a regime collapse stands at 38%.
Following the confirmation that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, discussions regarding the potential rapid disintegration of the Iranian government have intensified. In his latest public remarks, President Trump has explicitly stated that the core strategic objective of this military action is to facilitate regime change in Iran.
A large segment of the Iranian population has long-held grievances against the current government and its strict theocratic rule. Following the news of Khamenei's death, numerous videos have surfaced on social media showing local citizens taking to the streets to cheer and even dance in celebration, highlighting the significant internal resistance and crisis of legitimacy the regime now faces.
Despite the death of the Supreme Leader, under the Iranian Constitution, the country is currently managed by a provisional leadership council consisting of the President, the Head of the Judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council. This body will hold power until the Assembly of Experts selects a permanent successor.
Furthermore, Iran’s high-level political structure and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintain a rigorous "multiple backup" succession mechanism. Every core military and governmental position is supported by several vetted alternates ready to step in immediately. This system is designed to ensure that even in the event of "decapitation strikes" against top leadership, the state machinery can continue to function and maintain the continuity of ruling power.
Account:
0xf9939a1e54baa08e4f4d8549f1050f1ee7f6cd9d
Total Position: $13.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, an account with a perfect 6-0 record in Iran-related forecasts has wagered $13.8k that the "Iranian regime will collapse by March 31." The current probability for a regime collapse stands at 38%.
Following the confirmation that Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei was killed in joint U.S.-Israeli airstrikes, discussions regarding the potential rapid disintegration of the Iranian government have intensified. In his latest public remarks, President Trump has explicitly stated that the core strategic objective of this military action is to facilitate regime change in Iran.
A large segment of the Iranian population has long-held grievances against the current government and its strict theocratic rule. Following the news of Khamenei's death, numerous videos have surfaced on social media showing local citizens taking to the streets to cheer and even dance in celebration, highlighting the significant internal resistance and crisis of legitimacy the regime now faces.
Despite the death of the Supreme Leader, under the Iranian Constitution, the country is currently managed by a provisional leadership council consisting of the President, the Head of the Judiciary, and a cleric from the Guardian Council. This body will hold power until the Assembly of Experts selects a permanent successor.
Furthermore, Iran’s high-level political structure and the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) maintain a rigorous "multiple backup" succession mechanism. Every core military and governmental position is supported by several vetted alternates ready to step in immediately. This system is designed to ensure that even in the event of "decapitation strikes" against top leadership, the state machinery can continue to function and maintain the continuity of ruling power.
Account:
0xf9939a1e54baa08e4f4d8549f1050f1ee7f6cd9d
Total Position: $13.8k
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