"Ethereum MicroStrategy" Bitmine 73% Likely to Announce ETH Buy Within 3 Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Bitmine to announce ETH buy Feb 3-9" currently stands at 73%.
Bitmine is replicating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin reserve playbook, earning it the moniker "the Ethereum version of MicroStrategy." The company has aggressively accumulated ETH through equity financing and currently holds over 4.2 million tokens, with unrealized losses exceeding $6.6 billion.
Bitmine CEO Tom Lee repeatedly predicted last year that Ethereum would surpass $10,000 by the end of 2025. However, Fundstrat—the financial research firm co-founded by Lee—indicated in its "2026 Crypto Outlook" (available only to paid subscribers) that the crypto market is poised for a significant correction in the first half of this year, setting target ranges of $60k–$65k for BTC and $1,800–$2,000 for ETH.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Bitmine to announce ETH buy Feb 3-9" currently stands at 73%.
Bitmine is replicating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin reserve playbook, earning it the moniker "the Ethereum version of MicroStrategy." The company has aggressively accumulated ETH through equity financing and currently holds over 4.2 million tokens, with unrealized losses exceeding $6.6 billion.
Bitmine CEO Tom Lee repeatedly predicted last year that Ethereum would surpass $10,000 by the end of 2025. However, Fundstrat—the financial research firm co-founded by Lee—indicated in its "2026 Crypto Outlook" (available only to paid subscribers) that the crypto market is poised for a significant correction in the first half of this year, setting target ranges of $60k–$65k for BTC and $1,800–$2,000 for ETH.
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AI Arms Race Intensifies; Gemini 3.5 Likely to Launch in H1
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Gemini 3.5 release by ___?" went live yesterday. The current probability of a release within the first half of the year stands at 85%, while the odds of a launch before March 31 are 27%.
Google's development of the Gemini series has established a cadence of "one major annual version plus a semi-annual iteration." With the Gemini 3.0 series released in November–December 2025, the market widely consensus is that Google will not let it stand alone for a full year, necessitating the rollout of an enhanced version 3.5 in the first half of 2026 to maintain competitiveness.
Beyond official actions often interpreted as precursors to a launch—such as the deprecation of old models and preparations for Google I/O—the community recently discovered a model codenamed "snow bunny." Featuring a parameter scale distinct from Gemini 3.0, it is widely speculated to be the 3.5 version currently under testing.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Gemini 3.5 release by ___?" went live yesterday. The current probability of a release within the first half of the year stands at 85%, while the odds of a launch before March 31 are 27%.
Google's development of the Gemini series has established a cadence of "one major annual version plus a semi-annual iteration." With the Gemini 3.0 series released in November–December 2025, the market widely consensus is that Google will not let it stand alone for a full year, necessitating the rollout of an enhanced version 3.5 in the first half of 2026 to maintain competitiveness.
Beyond official actions often interpreted as precursors to a launch—such as the deprecation of old models and preparations for Google I/O—the community recently discovered a model codenamed "snow bunny." Featuring a parameter scale distinct from Gemini 3.0, it is widely speculated to be the 3.5 version currently under testing.
----------------------------------------
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Trump Seeks Control of Local Elections; Impeachment Risk Looms if House Lost
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Trump admin to federalize elections this year?" stands at 15%.
The current US election system is federalist, with states responsible for management—including voter registration, polling stations, counting, and certification—while the federal government offers only guidance and limited oversight. Trump's proposed "federalization" implies direct federal takeover of administrative control, such as appointing federal officials to handle counting or verification, effectively replacing state agencies to ensure "fairness."
On February 2, Trump stated on a podcast that "the Republican Party should federalize voting" and "we should take over the elections in at least 15 places," comments interpreted as an intent to intervene in "corrupt" states. However, the Constitution delegates election management to the states; a federal takeover would require legislation or executive action and is likely unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Polymarket currently shows an 82% probability that Democrats will retake the House of Representatives in the midterm elections—a body that holds the power to impeach the President.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Trump admin to federalize elections this year?" stands at 15%.
The current US election system is federalist, with states responsible for management—including voter registration, polling stations, counting, and certification—while the federal government offers only guidance and limited oversight. Trump's proposed "federalization" implies direct federal takeover of administrative control, such as appointing federal officials to handle counting or verification, effectively replacing state agencies to ensure "fairness."
On February 2, Trump stated on a podcast that "the Republican Party should federalize voting" and "we should take over the elections in at least 15 places," comments interpreted as an intent to intervene in "corrupt" states. However, the Constitution delegates election management to the states; a federal takeover would require legislation or executive action and is likely unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Polymarket currently shows an 82% probability that Democrats will retake the House of Representatives in the midterm elections—a body that holds the power to impeach the President.
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81% Win Rate Political Bettor Wagers $11.1k on US Gov Shutdown Before Feb 14
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 8 hours, an address with an 81% historical win rate in political markets wagered $11.1k that the US government will shut down again before Feb 14. The position was opened at an average price of 69¢, with the current price standing at 70¢.
As temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is set to expire this Friday (after Feb 13), significant partisan disagreements over budget details remain. Democrats have proposed multiple reforms regarding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which Republicans oppose. The two sides have yet to reach an agreement on a new funding deal, and failure to resolve this deadlock could result in a lapse of DHS funding, triggering another partial government shutdown.
Account: 0x791976e861822c1f6d13f719d2c80e8deb9b72b2
Position: $11.1k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 8 hours, an address with an 81% historical win rate in political markets wagered $11.1k that the US government will shut down again before Feb 14. The position was opened at an average price of 69¢, with the current price standing at 70¢.
As temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is set to expire this Friday (after Feb 13), significant partisan disagreements over budget details remain. Democrats have proposed multiple reforms regarding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which Republicans oppose. The two sides have yet to reach an agreement on a new funding deal, and failure to resolve this deadlock could result in a lapse of DHS funding, triggering another partial government shutdown.
Account: 0x791976e861822c1f6d13f719d2c80e8deb9b72b2
Position: $11.1k
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82% Win Rate Political Bettor Wagers $7.5k on Fed Rate Cut in March
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, an address with an 82% historical win rate in political markets wagered $8k that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The position was opened at an average price of 15¢, with the current price standing at 16¢.
US President Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, expected to succeed current Chair Powell upon the expiration of his term. Warsh is viewed by some analysts as favoring lower interest rates, and given that both he and Trump have historically advocated for cuts, the market is reassessing the future rate path as potentially more "accommodative." However, analysts also note that he may not necessarily push for extreme or rapid cuts, but could instead act prudently to maintain independence.
Account: 0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101
Position: $7.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, an address with an 82% historical win rate in political markets wagered $8k that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The position was opened at an average price of 15¢, with the current price standing at 16¢.
US President Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, expected to succeed current Chair Powell upon the expiration of his term. Warsh is viewed by some analysts as favoring lower interest rates, and given that both he and Trump have historically advocated for cuts, the market is reassessing the future rate path as potentially more "accommodative." However, analysts also note that he may not necessarily push for extreme or rapid cuts, but could instead act prudently to maintain independence.
Account: 0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101
Position: $7.5k
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New Address Bets $3.2k on US Strike on Iran Before Feb 28
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $1.3k that the US will strike Iran before Feb 20, and $1.9k that the US will strike before Feb 28, bringing the total position to $3.2k.
Driven by ongoing nationwide protests, the Iranian government has escalated its crackdown on domestic reformists, arresting numerous prominent figures. This internal political pressure, combined with external diplomatic tensions, has further complicated the situation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the US this week to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations and broader regional security issues—including Iran's ballistic missile program and support for proxy militias—with President Trump.
Account: 0xf4e5684d2a62ed12e76df37c0c7c39d2394bf012
Position: $3.2k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $1.3k that the US will strike Iran before Feb 20, and $1.9k that the US will strike before Feb 28, bringing the total position to $3.2k.
Driven by ongoing nationwide protests, the Iranian government has escalated its crackdown on domestic reformists, arresting numerous prominent figures. This internal political pressure, combined with external diplomatic tensions, has further complicated the situation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the US this week to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations and broader regional security issues—including Iran's ballistic missile program and support for proxy militias—with President Trump.
Account: 0xf4e5684d2a62ed12e76df37c0c7c39d2394bf012
Position: $3.2k
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5 High-Win-Rate Accounts Bet $48.2k on US Gov Shutdown Before Feb 14
On the prediction market Polymarket, over the past day, five high-win-rate accounts have wagered a total of $48.2k that the US government will shut down again before the 14th. The average entry price was approximately 71¢, with the current price standing at 74¢.
Senate Democrats have rejected the White House's DHS/ICE reform proposal, labeling it "incomplete and insufficient," which increases the difficulty of reaching an agreement before the funding deadline. While the two parties remain deadlocked over ICE reform provisions, leadership continues to state that a "deal is possible." However, the DHS funding expiration is imminent, and failure to reach an accord would disrupt the operations of DHS-related agencies.
Accounts: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f 0xee324b84546110f1fa5d4b2558edb179c3a4463a 0xe899b5ea69afb161da7a35597b6fe70398860899 0xffc49504efd8126650580438d4b22b1e7316a9f2
Total Position: $48.2k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, over the past day, five high-win-rate accounts have wagered a total of $48.2k that the US government will shut down again before the 14th. The average entry price was approximately 71¢, with the current price standing at 74¢.
Senate Democrats have rejected the White House's DHS/ICE reform proposal, labeling it "incomplete and insufficient," which increases the difficulty of reaching an agreement before the funding deadline. While the two parties remain deadlocked over ICE reform provisions, leadership continues to state that a "deal is possible." However, the DHS funding expiration is imminent, and failure to reach an accord would disrupt the operations of DHS-related agencies.
Accounts: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f 0xee324b84546110f1fa5d4b2558edb179c3a4463a 0xe899b5ea69afb161da7a35597b6fe70398860899 0xffc49504efd8126650580438d4b22b1e7316a9f2
Total Position: $48.2k
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Vast Majority of Top 50 Holders Betting on Judy Shelton for Fed Chair Show Abnormal Trading Behavior
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Kevin Warsh being selected in the "Who will Trump nominate as the next Fed Chair?" market surged to nearly 100% following Trump's social media nomination and White House confirmation. However, attempts to resolve the market as "Yes" were rejected because official congressional documents confirming the appointment have not yet been released.
On January 30, after Judy Shelton posted a screenshot of this event on X, new addresses began placing large bets on her selection. Her probability rose from 0.1% at the time of the post to 4% currently. Analysis of the top 50 holders for Shelton reveals that 42 accounts have wagered amounts exceeding their median position size by ten times or more. Of these, 17 accounts have no other positions at all, totaling $113k. Among the remaining 8 accounts, 5 appear normal only because they hold similarly large positions betting against Warsh (buying "No"), totaling $58k.
Accounts: 0xa229ff58bdf32a763d5fc3b2a6323dd73b51cbf1 0x47b5d2d7eff10aecabc749ed41ccff97e9c9a045 0x6be8864913b5be44611706abc696cad0814808e4 0x0b03ea04dbc340f9c76ab8874c0121a45352787d
Total Position: Over $200k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Kevin Warsh being selected in the "Who will Trump nominate as the next Fed Chair?" market surged to nearly 100% following Trump's social media nomination and White House confirmation. However, attempts to resolve the market as "Yes" were rejected because official congressional documents confirming the appointment have not yet been released.
On January 30, after Judy Shelton posted a screenshot of this event on X, new addresses began placing large bets on her selection. Her probability rose from 0.1% at the time of the post to 4% currently. Analysis of the top 50 holders for Shelton reveals that 42 accounts have wagered amounts exceeding their median position size by ten times or more. Of these, 17 accounts have no other positions at all, totaling $113k. Among the remaining 8 accounts, 5 appear normal only because they hold similarly large positions betting against Warsh (buying "No"), totaling $58k.
Accounts: 0xa229ff58bdf32a763d5fc3b2a6323dd73b51cbf1 0x47b5d2d7eff10aecabc749ed41ccff97e9c9a045 0x6be8864913b5be44611706abc696cad0814808e4 0x0b03ea04dbc340f9c76ab8874c0121a45352787d
Total Position: Over $200k
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MrBeast's "Million Dollar Mystery" Super Bowl Ad Hunt; 30% Chance of Winner by Feb 15
On the prediction market Polymarket, the new market "Winner found for MrBeast's million dollar mystery by Feb 15?" currently stands at a 30% probability.
The event originates from an interactive Super Bowl commercial aired by MrBeast. Viewers are challenged to spot clues within the ad, follow them to solve online puzzles, and piece together the final answer. The format resembles a "national treasure hunt," requiring the audience to re-watch the footage repeatedly and analyze it frame-by-frame to connect hidden Easter eggs. According to a post by MrBeast, the associated website had received 70 million visits as of yesterday, though no winner has yet emerged.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the new market "Winner found for MrBeast's million dollar mystery by Feb 15?" currently stands at a 30% probability.
The event originates from an interactive Super Bowl commercial aired by MrBeast. Viewers are challenged to spot clues within the ad, follow them to solve online puzzles, and piece together the final answer. The format resembles a "national treasure hunt," requiring the audience to re-watch the footage repeatedly and analyze it frame-by-frame to connect hidden Easter eggs. According to a post by MrBeast, the associated website had received 70 million visits as of yesterday, though no winner has yet emerged.
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Apple iPhone 17e Release by Month-End? Probability at 51%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Apple announces iPhone 17e by Feb 28" currently stands at 51%.
According to renowned Bloomberg tech reporter Mark Gurman, Apple is expected to release the iPhone 17e around February 19. As the successor to the iPhone 16e, the new model is expected to maintain the starting price of $599, positioning it as a high-value entry in the lineup.
Notably, the previous generation iPhone 16e was also released during this same period last year (February 2025), suggesting a consistent update cycle for the series. As of press time, Apple has not issued any official announcements regarding the iPhone 17e or a spring event.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Apple announces iPhone 17e by Feb 28" currently stands at 51%.
According to renowned Bloomberg tech reporter Mark Gurman, Apple is expected to release the iPhone 17e around February 19. As the successor to the iPhone 16e, the new model is expected to maintain the starting price of $599, positioning it as a high-value entry in the lineup.
Notably, the previous generation iPhone 16e was also released during this same period last year (February 2025), suggesting a consistent update cycle for the series. As of press time, Apple has not issued any official announcements regarding the iPhone 17e or a spring event.
-----------------------------------
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Four New Addresses Bet $17k on EdgeX FDV Exceeding $2B Within One Day
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses have wagered a combined $17k on "Yes" in the market "EdgeX FDV > $2B within 1 day?". The positions were opened at an average price range of 35¢–39¢, with the current price standing at 31¢.
EdgeX is a Web3 project focused on trading and financial infrastructure, positioning itself as a foundational architecture for trading systems. It centers on high-performance matching, derivatives trading, and exchange-grade infrastructure, aiming to provide a highly efficient on-chain or hybrid trading environment. Market analysis notes that new project launches often feature low circulating supply and high opening prices, factors which can easily drive up Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) amidst limited early liquidity.
Accounts: 0xe4c61d2f0b77d7d5381b9cf409d184c4e1da91db 0xbb181d42d1973345f0db83e7d168ce17397cb519 0xae6a7c4bcfe1b99194021f3addfc263968825e59 0x30dec867b8f9dfb71663a7b2121a20e09bd0fa1f
Total Position: $17k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses have wagered a combined $17k on "Yes" in the market "EdgeX FDV > $2B within 1 day?". The positions were opened at an average price range of 35¢–39¢, with the current price standing at 31¢.
EdgeX is a Web3 project focused on trading and financial infrastructure, positioning itself as a foundational architecture for trading systems. It centers on high-performance matching, derivatives trading, and exchange-grade infrastructure, aiming to provide a highly efficient on-chain or hybrid trading environment. Market analysis notes that new project launches often feature low circulating supply and high opening prices, factors which can easily drive up Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) amidst limited early liquidity.
Accounts: 0xe4c61d2f0b77d7d5381b9cf409d184c4e1da91db 0xbb181d42d1973345f0db83e7d168ce17397cb519 0xae6a7c4bcfe1b99194021f3addfc263968825e59 0x30dec867b8f9dfb71663a7b2121a20e09bd0fa1f
Total Position: $17k
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Seven New Addresses Bet $16.7k on Trump Appointing Judy Shelton as Next Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, seven new addresses wagered a total of $16.7k that Trump will appoint Judy Shelton as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The positions were opened at an average price of 3¢–4¢, with the current price standing at 4¢.
Recent social media discussions have focused heavily on interview clips of Trump discussing the next Fed Chair. Although mainstream institutions have not confirmed any official announcement regarding Judy Shelton's nomination, Trump's somewhat confused phrasing regarding the Fed pick in a recent interview has been rapidly amplified on social platforms. This, combined with recent "whale" activity driving up Shelton's price, has kept the market for Shelton highly active.
Accounts: 0x4cd658d1ce5f5e0165ec52812752e633a8f20d98 0x594d9586d42320096c95ceba6b910f2d957fd833 0xfb653bd36942db64350cf6dd5b1c6f97cb945dc6 0xff7a8b23530ad72430e0b8b4b76792c8d9cc15f7 0xd84b6caf41b58a5df472a58355d9c51c16a3cf9a 0x44405138fae83cb35a255038b63a24c6b3526050 0xaf5e0e68f559fec02743fe485392aee3115a0082
Total Position: $16.7k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, seven new addresses wagered a total of $16.7k that Trump will appoint Judy Shelton as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The positions were opened at an average price of 3¢–4¢, with the current price standing at 4¢.
Recent social media discussions have focused heavily on interview clips of Trump discussing the next Fed Chair. Although mainstream institutions have not confirmed any official announcement regarding Judy Shelton's nomination, Trump's somewhat confused phrasing regarding the Fed pick in a recent interview has been rapidly amplified on social platforms. This, combined with recent "whale" activity driving up Shelton's price, has kept the market for Shelton highly active.
Accounts: 0x4cd658d1ce5f5e0165ec52812752e633a8f20d98 0x594d9586d42320096c95ceba6b910f2d957fd833 0xfb653bd36942db64350cf6dd5b1c6f97cb945dc6 0xff7a8b23530ad72430e0b8b4b76792c8d9cc15f7 0xd84b6caf41b58a5df472a58355d9c51c16a3cf9a 0x44405138fae83cb35a255038b63a24c6b3526050 0xaf5e0e68f559fec02743fe485392aee3115a0082
Total Position: $16.7k
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New Address Bets $9.2k on California Billionaire Wealth Tax Passing
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 12 hours, a new address wagered $9.2k that the billionaire one-time wealth tax proposal will pass in the 2026 California election. The position was opened at an average price of 34¢, with the current price standing at 38¢.
The "One-Time 5% Billionaire Wealth Tax" remains a proposed voter initiative, known as the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," which aims to levy a one-time tax on residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion.
Although the initiative has not yet secured enough signatures to guarantee a spot on the official state ballot, an increasing number of billionaires and ultra-high-net-worth individuals have recently begun moving out of California to low-tax jurisdictions like Nevada. This trend is widely believed to be a preemptive response to the proposed tax, rather than a result of any law currently in effect.
Account: 0x811b9e81f7d36a2ccde94a837c3524882b667006
Position: $9.2k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 12 hours, a new address wagered $9.2k that the billionaire one-time wealth tax proposal will pass in the 2026 California election. The position was opened at an average price of 34¢, with the current price standing at 38¢.
The "One-Time 5% Billionaire Wealth Tax" remains a proposed voter initiative, known as the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," which aims to levy a one-time tax on residents with a net worth exceeding $1 billion.
Although the initiative has not yet secured enough signatures to guarantee a spot on the official state ballot, an increasing number of billionaires and ultra-high-net-worth individuals have recently begun moving out of California to low-tax jurisdictions like Nevada. This trend is widely believed to be a preemptive response to the proposed tax, rather than a result of any law currently in effect.
Account: 0x811b9e81f7d36a2ccde94a837c3524882b667006
Position: $9.2k
------------------------
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72% Win Rate Political Bettor Wagers $18.4k on Israel Striking Iran Before June 30
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the past eight hours, an address with a 72% historical win rate in political markets has been continuously adding to its position on "Israel strikes Iran by June 30." The address has wagered a total of $18.4k on this outcome, with an average entry price of 50¢ and a current price of 51¢.
Yesterday, during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House, Trump reiterated the importance of continuing to push for negotiations with Iran and prioritizing diplomatic solutions. Discussions focused on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile initiatives, and support for regional armed groups.
Conversely, Israel advocated for a more hardline stance, particularly regarding Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for proxy militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Netanyahu emphasized the necessity of ensuring Iran "never acquires nuclear weapons." The two sides did not reach a specific agreement on an Iran strategy, resulting in no major breakthroughs.
Account: 0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e
Position: $18.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the past eight hours, an address with a 72% historical win rate in political markets has been continuously adding to its position on "Israel strikes Iran by June 30." The address has wagered a total of $18.4k on this outcome, with an average entry price of 50¢ and a current price of 51¢.
Yesterday, during a meeting with Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu at the White House, Trump reiterated the importance of continuing to push for negotiations with Iran and prioritizing diplomatic solutions. Discussions focused on Iran's nuclear program, ballistic missile initiatives, and support for regional armed groups.
Conversely, Israel advocated for a more hardline stance, particularly regarding Iran's ballistic missile program and its support for proxy militias such as Hamas and Hezbollah. Netanyahu emphasized the necessity of ensuring Iran "never acquires nuclear weapons." The two sides did not reach a specific agreement on an Iran strategy, resulting in no major breakthroughs.
Account: 0x1521b47bf0c41f6b7fd3ad41cdec566812c8f23e
Position: $18.4k
----------------------------------
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❤1
100% Win Rate Political Bettor Wagers $3k on US Gov Shutdown Lasting Over 7 Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last six hours, an address with $10,000 in profits and a 100% historical win rate in political markets wagered $3k that the US government shutdown will last more than seven days. The position was opened at an average price of 75¢, with the current price standing at 68¢.
The potential US government shutdown, stemming from disputes over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, could begin on February 14. The shutdown will conclude only once both sides reach an agreement or pass a temporary spending bill. The duration depends on the speed of compromise between Congress and the President; while historical precedents show short shutdowns often last 1–3 days, a political deadlock could extend the closure for days or even weeks.
Account: 0x30b7b487e35fb985427bfa2d85194207158de81c
Position: $3k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last six hours, an address with $10,000 in profits and a 100% historical win rate in political markets wagered $3k that the US government shutdown will last more than seven days. The position was opened at an average price of 75¢, with the current price standing at 68¢.
The potential US government shutdown, stemming from disputes over Department of Homeland Security (DHS) funding, could begin on February 14. The shutdown will conclude only once both sides reach an agreement or pass a temporary spending bill. The duration depends on the speed of compromise between Congress and the President; while historical precedents show short shutdowns often last 1–3 days, a political deadlock could extend the closure for days or even weeks.
Account: 0x30b7b487e35fb985427bfa2d85194207158de81c
Position: $3k
------------------------------
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Israel Officially Confirms Arrest of Insider Traders; This Channel Reported the Bet 1 Hour After Execution
On the prediction market Polymarket, two insiders who bet on Israel striking Iran—whom this channel reported on January 6—have been officially arrested by Israeli authorities and charged with profiting from classified wartime military information.
Based on the account's highly precise betting activity in June 2025, this channel covered the trade just one hour after it was placed, directly identifying the trader as an insider with access to military secrets.
The following day (January 7), after the wagers sparked network-wide attention, the account liquidated its positions and renamed itself "Rundeep." This channel once again reported on its liquidation and name-change operations.
According to the latest reports, the two arrested insiders are an Israeli civilian and an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist. Israeli prosecutors have now secured evidence of the pair profiting from classified information and have decided to file formal indictments.
--------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, two insiders who bet on Israel striking Iran—whom this channel reported on January 6—have been officially arrested by Israeli authorities and charged with profiting from classified wartime military information.
Based on the account's highly precise betting activity in June 2025, this channel covered the trade just one hour after it was placed, directly identifying the trader as an insider with access to military secrets.
The following day (January 7), after the wagers sparked network-wide attention, the account liquidated its positions and renamed itself "Rundeep." This channel once again reported on its liquidation and name-change operations.
According to the latest reports, the two arrested insiders are an Israeli civilian and an Israel Defense Forces (IDF) reservist. Israeli prosecutors have now secured evidence of the pair profiting from classified information and have decided to file formal indictments.
--------------------------
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Two Addresses Bet $244.6k on California Billionaire Wealth Tax Passing
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, the account reported yesterday increased its position by $35.1k, betting that the one-time billionaire wealth tax proposal will pass in the 2026 California election. This addition was made at an average entry price of 44¢, with the current price standing at 39¢. Separately, a new address wagered $200.3k at an average entry price of 54¢. Together, the two addresses have placed a combined $244.6k on this outcome.
The proposal, known as the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," remains in the voter initiative phase. It requires gathering enough signatures (approximately 875,000 valid signatures) by the end of June 2026 to qualify for the official November state ballot, meaning it is not yet law or a formal ballot measure. Proponents hope this one-time tax will raise funds for healthcare and other public services, though it has not yet reached the voting stage.
Opponents—including California Governor Gavin Newsom, the business community, and various political and economic scholars—argue the tax could damage the business investment climate. They contend that its passage might trigger an exodus of wealthy individuals and corporations, ultimately weakening California's economy. Critics warn it would undermine job creation, capital inflows, and the state's foundational tech industry.
Accounts:
0x811b9e81f7d36a2ccde94a837c3524882b667006
0x04059a17569cc586081cfadad1cda190710bda82
Total Position: $244.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, the account reported yesterday increased its position by $35.1k, betting that the one-time billionaire wealth tax proposal will pass in the 2026 California election. This addition was made at an average entry price of 44¢, with the current price standing at 39¢. Separately, a new address wagered $200.3k at an average entry price of 54¢. Together, the two addresses have placed a combined $244.6k on this outcome.
The proposal, known as the "2026 Billionaire Tax Act," remains in the voter initiative phase. It requires gathering enough signatures (approximately 875,000 valid signatures) by the end of June 2026 to qualify for the official November state ballot, meaning it is not yet law or a formal ballot measure. Proponents hope this one-time tax will raise funds for healthcare and other public services, though it has not yet reached the voting stage.
Opponents—including California Governor Gavin Newsom, the business community, and various political and economic scholars—argue the tax could damage the business investment climate. They contend that its passage might trigger an exodus of wealthy individuals and corporations, ultimately weakening California's economy. Critics warn it would undermine job creation, capital inflows, and the state's foundational tech industry.
Accounts:
0x811b9e81f7d36a2ccde94a837c3524882b667006
0x04059a17569cc586081cfadad1cda190710bda82
Total Position: $244.6k
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New Market: 22% Chance Judy Shelton's Nomination Odds Exceed 5% Before Feb 20
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market launched today titled "Judy Shelton nomination probability > ___% before Feb 20?". Currently, the probability of her odds exceeding 5% stands at 22%, while the probability of exceeding 10% is just 2%.
Shelton was previously nominated by Trump to the Federal Reserve Board but failed to secure Senate confirmation, a historical footnote frequently cited by the media. Although Trump has already selected Warsh, significant capital continues to buy into the prospect of Shelton being chosen. As of press time, Shelton's overall probability of being selected sits at 4.4%.
Because the condition for this derivative market to resolve as "Yes" is that Shelton's probability must exceed 5% for at least one continuous hour, the possibility of artificial price manipulation driven by concentrated capital cannot be ruled out.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market launched today titled "Judy Shelton nomination probability > ___% before Feb 20?". Currently, the probability of her odds exceeding 5% stands at 22%, while the probability of exceeding 10% is just 2%.
Shelton was previously nominated by Trump to the Federal Reserve Board but failed to secure Senate confirmation, a historical footnote frequently cited by the media. Although Trump has already selected Warsh, significant capital continues to buy into the prospect of Shelton being chosen. As of press time, Shelton's overall probability of being selected sits at 4.4%.
Because the condition for this derivative market to resolve as "Yes" is that Shelton's probability must exceed 5% for at least one continuous hour, the possibility of artificial price manipulation driven by concentrated capital cannot be ruled out.
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OPM Director's Post Causes US Gov Shutdown Odds to Plummet from 96% to 20%
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 2 hours, the probability that the US government will shut down by Saturday (February 14) plummeted from a peak of 96% to the current 20%.
The primary driver behind this sudden drop was a 12:01 post by US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Director Scott Kupor, who replied: "Ha! Wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that trade... With only a partial DHS lapse, we will not be updating the OPM website to a shutdown status."
Because Polymarket's resolution rules for the government shutdown market are strictly based on the OPM website's status updates, Kupor's statement led traders to conclude the market will inevitably resolve as "No," triggering the massive crash in odds.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 2 hours, the probability that the US government will shut down by Saturday (February 14) plummeted from a peak of 96% to the current 20%.
The primary driver behind this sudden drop was a 12:01 post by US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) Director Scott Kupor, who replied: "Ha! Wouldn't want to be on the wrong side of that trade... With only a partial DHS lapse, we will not be updating the OPM website to a shutdown status."
Because Polymarket's resolution rules for the government shutdown market are strictly based on the OPM website's status updates, Kupor's statement led traders to conclude the market will inevitably resolve as "No," triggering the massive crash in odds.
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80% Win Rate Political Bettor Wagers $7.5k on Trump Appointing Judy Shelton as Next Fed Chair
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, an address with an 80% historical win rate in political markets wagered $7.5k that Trump will appoint Judy Shelton as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The position was opened at an average price of 5¢, with the current price standing at 4¢.
Across prediction platforms like Polymarket, the probability associated with bets on Judy Shelton has recently ticked upward (rising from approximately 2% to 5%). This shift is primarily driven by market trading activity. Even though Warsh has already been announced, the improvement in Shelton's market odds indicates that some capital is actively speculating on an unexpected outcome.
Account: 0xf5d9542335a7161ac24182dfe5ef2b1460aa0d97
Position: $7.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, an address with an 80% historical win rate in political markets wagered $7.5k that Trump will appoint Judy Shelton as the next Federal Reserve Chair. The position was opened at an average price of 5¢, with the current price standing at 4¢.
Across prediction platforms like Polymarket, the probability associated with bets on Judy Shelton has recently ticked upward (rising from approximately 2% to 5%). This shift is primarily driven by market trading activity. Even though Warsh has already been announced, the improvement in Shelton's market odds indicates that some capital is actively speculating on an unexpected outcome.
Account: 0xf5d9542335a7161ac24182dfe5ef2b1460aa0d97
Position: $7.5k
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Account With 91% Win Rate on Gov Shutdown Bets Nets $240k Profit in Single Trade
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the US government will shut down by Saturday currently stands at 26%.
The market's resolution criteria strictly rely on the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website. At 12:01, OPM Director Scott Kupor stated that the website's status would not be updated to reflect the current Department of Homeland Security funding lapse, causing the "Yes" odds to plummet.
At 12:02, an account named "Llalalala"—which holds a 91% historical win rate on government shutdown markets—began liquidating all of its "Yes" shares. It then aggressively pivoted to buying "No" shares at an average price of 5¢. Llalalala has since sold off this new position, securing nearly $240,000 in total profits.
Account: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability that the US government will shut down by Saturday currently stands at 26%.
The market's resolution criteria strictly rely on the US Office of Personnel Management (OPM) website. At 12:01, OPM Director Scott Kupor stated that the website's status would not be updated to reflect the current Department of Homeland Security funding lapse, causing the "Yes" odds to plummet.
At 12:02, an account named "Llalalala"—which holds a 91% historical win rate on government shutdown markets—began liquidating all of its "Yes" shares. It then aggressively pivoted to buying "No" shares at an average price of 5¢. Llalalala has since sold off this new position, securing nearly $240,000 in total profits.
Account: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12
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