82% of accounts believe "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will not exceed $280M at its opening weekend
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor in ""Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opening weekend box office will exceed $280M?" invested $3.8k "no", with an average buy probability of 74.8%, and current "yes" probability at 30.9%.
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will premiere in North America on July 31. This event only counts box office data from July 31 to August 2 in the US and Canada, excluding China and other international markets.
On July 20, Box Office Theory predicted the film's North American opening weekend gross would be approximately $2.28 billion, still about $52 million short of the threshold; that same day, AMC CEO Adam Aron listed the film as a core title to drive second-half box office growth; "Entertainment Weekly" today revealed the studio is leveraging Sadie Sink's role mystery to continue pre-release hype. Current information shows strong buzz, but surpassing $2.8 billion would require significantly exceeding current industry forecasts.
Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, this appears to be a position opened with the intention of closing at a specific time for profit or loss, rather than betting on whether the event actually occurs.
Account:
0x7fa6c6474e20e9f6ce388847be32611667e216f9
Total investment: $3.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor in ""Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opening weekend box office will exceed $280M?" invested $3.8k "no", with an average buy probability of 74.8%, and current "yes" probability at 30.9%.
0x7fa6c647 invested $3.8k, with the best related sector beingbox office, achieving a net profit of $16.3k. Their win rate in this sector across 217 settled trades is 178/217 (82%), with 49 trades where buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.651-$0.8), their historical investment median was $140, and this trade is 27.1 times that median.
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will premiere in North America on July 31. This event only counts box office data from July 31 to August 2 in the US and Canada, excluding China and other international markets.
On July 20, Box Office Theory predicted the film's North American opening weekend gross would be approximately $2.28 billion, still about $52 million short of the threshold; that same day, AMC CEO Adam Aron listed the film as a core title to drive second-half box office growth; "Entertainment Weekly" today revealed the studio is leveraging Sadie Sink's role mystery to continue pre-release hype. Current information shows strong buzz, but surpassing $2.8 billion would require significantly exceeding current industry forecasts.
Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, this appears to be a position opened with the intention of closing at a specific time for profit or loss, rather than betting on whether the event actually occurs.
Account:
0x7fa6c6474e20e9f6ce388847be32611667e216f9
Total investment: $3.8k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
PolyBeats Improvement Direction Prediction Market Probability Announcement
The new prediction market launched yesterday, «PolyBeats' most needed improvement direction is ___?», I can't think of any content, no matter what you invest in, there's something, the m-editor has been scolded by the boss to the point of being angry.
Successful predictors can obtain value 20u of 7-day PolyBeats Pro, hoping the predictors provide more suggestions~
If you have specific improvement suggestions, you can private chat @zhy_liu, and upon adoption, you can obtain value 79u of 30-day PolyBeats Pro!
---------------------------------
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The new prediction market launched yesterday, «PolyBeats' most needed improvement direction is ___?», I can't think of any content, no matter what you invest in, there's something, the m-editor has been scolded by the boss to the point of being angry.
Successful predictors can obtain value 20u of 7-day PolyBeats Pro, hoping the predictors provide more suggestions~
If you have specific improvement suggestions, you can private chat @zhy_liu, and upon adoption, you can obtain value 79u of 30-day PolyBeats Pro!
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The "Streaming Emmy Awards Overall Ranking Prediction" has been released, and HBO Max currently holds the top nomination spot with 122 nominations
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new event "Which streaming service will win the most Emmys?" launched today. Currently, there is no valid matching probability for this event, and the trading volume is 0. The Emmy Awards will be presented in stages from September 5 to 14, and the final outcome depends on each platform's ability to convert nominations into wins.
The event statistics cover all awards in the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. Regardless of whether the winner is a series, an actor, or behind‑the‑scenes staff, the award will be credited to the streaming platform that hosts the work; if the final award counts are identical, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of the platform's English name.
According to the Emmy nomination list, HBO Max leads with 122 nominations, followed closely by Netflix with 111, and Apple TV with 87. HBO Max relies heavily on "Pittsburgh Nurse" and "Desperate Writer," while Netflix is banking on "Beef." According to predictions from the Los Angeles Times, Noah Wyle, star of "Pittsburgh Nurse," is a favorite for Lead Actor in a Drama, and Jane Smart from "Desperate Writer" is also highly regarded; in the Limited Series category, competition is fierce between "DTF St. Louis" and "Beef."
Although Apple TV ranks third in nominations, it holds advantages in key categories. The Los Angeles Times predicts that Leah Seychoux, star of "The Joyful," is favored to win Lead Actress in a Drama, "Widow’s Bay" leads in the Comedy Series predictions, and Harrison Ford from "In Treatment" is also expected to win.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new event "Which streaming service will win the most Emmys?" launched today. Currently, there is no valid matching probability for this event, and the trading volume is 0. The Emmy Awards will be presented in stages from September 5 to 14, and the final outcome depends on each platform's ability to convert nominations into wins.
The event statistics cover all awards in the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. Regardless of whether the winner is a series, an actor, or behind‑the‑scenes staff, the award will be credited to the streaming platform that hosts the work; if the final award counts are identical, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of the platform's English name.
According to the Emmy nomination list, HBO Max leads with 122 nominations, followed closely by Netflix with 111, and Apple TV with 87. HBO Max relies heavily on "Pittsburgh Nurse" and "Desperate Writer," while Netflix is banking on "Beef." According to predictions from the Los Angeles Times, Noah Wyle, star of "Pittsburgh Nurse," is a favorite for Lead Actor in a Drama, and Jane Smart from "Desperate Writer" is also highly regarded; in the Limited Series category, competition is fierce between "DTF St. Louis" and "Beef."
Although Apple TV ranks third in nominations, it holds advantages in key categories. The Los Angeles Times predicts that Leah Seychoux, star of "The Joyful," is favored to win Lead Actress in a Drama, "Widow’s Bay" leads in the Comedy Series predictions, and Harrison Ford from "In Treatment" is also expected to win.
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Russian aircraft approach UK carrier, Smart Money $51,700 invests NATO‑Russia clash
In the prediction market Polymarket, one Smart Money participant invested in “Will NATO and Russia have a military clash before 2027?”, and the current probability of “Yes” is 16.5%.
Subscribing to BlockBeats membership allows you to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal split‑portfolio operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and after successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically
---------------------------------
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In the prediction market Polymarket, one Smart Money participant invested in “Will NATO and Russia have a military clash before 2027?”, and the current probability of “Yes” is 16.5%.
Account 1 is most closely correlated with the Russia sector in this market, with a net profit of $10.8k. In that sector, out of 7 settled trades, the win rate is 7/7 (100%), and there were 0 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribing to BlockBeats membership allows you to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal split‑portfolio operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and after successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically
---------------------------------
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White House reportedly nods to ethics clause, 2 smart money predict Clarity Act will not be signed into law this year
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money placed $2.3k on “Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?” with a “No” bet, an average buy probability of 66.4%, and a current “Yes” probability of 42.5%.
At 7 pm Beijing time on July 21, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett and PunchbowlNews were the first to report that Trump had agreed to include an ethics clause in the CLARITY Act; The Block subsequently cited industry sources confirming that the White House and Republicans had reached an agreement on that portion. For months prior, a clause limiting presidents, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote.
When the report was released, the final text had not yet been made public, and Democrats had not seen the specific language; therefore, the so‑called “clearing of obstacles” remains based on source accounts of negotiation progress, not on a bipartisan public confirmation of a final agreement.
The CLARITY Act is not merely a stablecoin bill; it is a crypto market‑structure act that seeks to delineate the regulatory boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for digital assets, and to establish a framework for trading platforms, brokers, client asset protection, and compliance requirements. The bill passed the House in July 2025 with a 294‑to‑134 vote, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced a version in May of this year with a 15‑to‑9 vote.
Note: Based on its past trade profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; instead, they open a position and later take profit or loss at a certain point in time.
Accounts:
0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20
0xdc4f08727c65afc4731b75cf1ed265666b7b4652
Total investment: $2.3k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money placed $2.3k on “Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?” with a “No” bet, an average buy probability of 66.4%, and a current “Yes” probability of 42.5%.
0x4a2be7a7 invested $1.3k, with the best related sector in this market being politics, and the sector net profit was $67.2k. In that sector, 553 settled trades had a win rate of 213/553 (39%), of which 156 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount was $1.3k.
0xdc4f0872 invested $1.0k, with the best related sector in this market being politics, and the sector net profit was $109k. In that sector, 50 settled trades had a win rate of 38/50 (76%), of which 1 trade had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.
At 7 pm Beijing time on July 21, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett and PunchbowlNews were the first to report that Trump had agreed to include an ethics clause in the CLARITY Act; The Block subsequently cited industry sources confirming that the White House and Republicans had reached an agreement on that portion. For months prior, a clause limiting presidents, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote.
When the report was released, the final text had not yet been made public, and Democrats had not seen the specific language; therefore, the so‑called “clearing of obstacles” remains based on source accounts of negotiation progress, not on a bipartisan public confirmation of a final agreement.
The CLARITY Act is not merely a stablecoin bill; it is a crypto market‑structure act that seeks to delineate the regulatory boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for digital assets, and to establish a framework for trading platforms, brokers, client asset protection, and compliance requirements. The bill passed the House in July 2025 with a 294‑to‑134 vote, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced a version in May of this year with a 15‑to‑9 vote.
Note: Based on its past trade profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; instead, they open a position and later take profit or loss at a certain point in time.
Accounts:
0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20
0xdc4f08727c65afc4731b75cf1ed265666b7b4652
Total investment: $2.3k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Trump threatens to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, rate market smart money predicts Fed rate hike in 2026
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors invested $2.6k in "yes" on "Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?", with an average buy probability of 59.9%, and the current "yes" probability is 60.5%.
On the 21st, Trump stated that the US will likely strike Iran's underground nuclear facility "Pickaxe" very soon and will strongly hit any locations used to develop nuclear capabilities; if Houthi militants block the Red Sea shipping lanes, the US will also "handle this matter." Today, Reuters reported that US forces conducted their 11th consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, while Iran attacked US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and Houthi militants threatened to attack Saudi oil transported through the Mandeb Strait. Brent crude immediately rose to $91.51 per barrel, WTI to $84.64. International oil prices have risen about 30% in recent weeks, and US average gasoline prices have once again broken above $4 per gallon. If the conflict continues and both the Hormuz Strait and Mandeb Strait are blocked, energy and transportation costs could push US inflation higher again.
Monetary policy expectations are also shifting. A Reuters survey released on the 21st showed that out of 67 economists who answered related questions, 44 believe there is a higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes in 2026, while last month most believed the likelihood was low; however, all 104 respondents still expect the July meeting to maintain 3.50%-3.75%, with 78 expecting no changes throughout the year. Goldman Sachs noted on the same day that war and AI demand could keep US inflation near 3% rather than 2%, and that job growth remains above the level needed to maintain stable unemployment despite high oil prices.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and there is behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at certain time points after opening positions.
Accounts:
0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Total invested: $2.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors invested $2.6k in "yes" on "Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?", with an average buy probability of 59.9%, and the current "yes" probability is 60.5%.
Ahpo invested $1.5k, with the most relevant sector being Fed Rates, sector net profit $13.9k. In this sector, they have a win rate of 94/105 (90%) across 105 settled trades, with 6 trades where buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95.
Tenebrus7 invested $1.1k, with the most relevant sector being Economic Systems, sector net profit $8.3k. In this sector, they have a win rate of 64/85 (75%) across 85 settled trades, with 13 trades where buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.601-$0.65), their historical investment median is $4.8k.
On the 21st, Trump stated that the US will likely strike Iran's underground nuclear facility "Pickaxe" very soon and will strongly hit any locations used to develop nuclear capabilities; if Houthi militants block the Red Sea shipping lanes, the US will also "handle this matter." Today, Reuters reported that US forces conducted their 11th consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, while Iran attacked US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and Houthi militants threatened to attack Saudi oil transported through the Mandeb Strait. Brent crude immediately rose to $91.51 per barrel, WTI to $84.64. International oil prices have risen about 30% in recent weeks, and US average gasoline prices have once again broken above $4 per gallon. If the conflict continues and both the Hormuz Strait and Mandeb Strait are blocked, energy and transportation costs could push US inflation higher again.
Monetary policy expectations are also shifting. A Reuters survey released on the 21st showed that out of 67 economists who answered related questions, 44 believe there is a higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes in 2026, while last month most believed the likelihood was low; however, all 104 respondents still expect the July meeting to maintain 3.50%-3.75%, with 78 expecting no changes throughout the year. Goldman Sachs noted on the same day that war and AI demand could keep US inflation near 3% rather than 2%, and that job growth remains above the level needed to maintain stable unemployment despite high oil prices.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and there is behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at certain time points after opening positions.
Accounts:
0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Total invested: $2.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Miami Heat YouTube official page shows "James appearance" pre-release page, probability of joining Heat rises to nearly 50%
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $4.4k in "yes" on "Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in the 2026-27 season?", with an average buy-in probability of 38.9% and the current "yes" probability at 46.3%.
Recently, social media discovered that the Miami Heat's official YouTube channel had a pre-scheduled page titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference | July 27, 2026" (LeBron James appearance press conference | July 27, 2026), with the page description mentioning welcoming James back to the Heat; the page was later set to private. As of now, the Heat, James, agent Rich Paul, ESPN, Shams, Reuters, or AP have not confirmed a signing.
The Heat have acquired Bam Adebayo, and the team also includes Andrew Wiggins and others; if James joins, he could take on more organizational and clutch ball-handling duties, not having to carry the entire offense alone like he did with the Lakers in the end. James publicly emphasized that winning a championship is more important than salary, and with his four-year partnership with Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra and two championships, the Heat's championship narrative is therefore complete.
Account:
0x11ed2594f0dd47250130907a9cca2ab57d288a89
Total invested: $4.4k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $4.4k in "yes" on "Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in the 2026-27 season?", with an average buy-in probability of 38.9% and the current "yes" probability at 46.3%.
Recently, social media discovered that the Miami Heat's official YouTube channel had a pre-scheduled page titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference | July 27, 2026" (LeBron James appearance press conference | July 27, 2026), with the page description mentioning welcoming James back to the Heat; the page was later set to private. As of now, the Heat, James, agent Rich Paul, ESPN, Shams, Reuters, or AP have not confirmed a signing.
The Heat have acquired Bam Adebayo, and the team also includes Andrew Wiggins and others; if James joins, he could take on more organizational and clutch ball-handling duties, not having to carry the entire offense alone like he did with the Lakers in the end. James publicly emphasized that winning a championship is more important than salary, and with his four-year partnership with Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra and two championships, the Heat's championship narrative is therefore complete.
Account:
0x11ed2594f0dd47250130907a9cca2ab57d288a89
Total invested: $4.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Trump threatens to invade Iran; 3 high-win-rate accounts predict if Trump is going to TACO again
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have bought into "Will the US invade Iran before 2027?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 27.5%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats Membership to view full prediction market news content. Unlock complete account profiles, anomalous position allocation, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content to stay one step ahead of global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats Membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have bought into "Will the US invade Iran before 2027?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 27.5%.
Account 1's best-related sector for this market is Geopolitics, with a net profit of $17.0k in this sector. Its win rate across 129 settled trades in this sector is 111/129 (86%), including 6 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95.
Account 2's best-related sector for this market is Iran, with a net profit of $5.8k in this sector. Its win rate across 34 settled trades in this sector is 29/34 (85%), including 3 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95.
Account 3's best-related sector for this market is Israel, with a net profit of $115k in this sector. Its win rate across 140 settled trades in this sector is 113/140 (81%), including 21 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. This investment is 66.1 times the median historical investment amount within its similar cost price range.
Subscribe to BlockBeats Membership to view full prediction market news content. Unlock complete account profiles, anomalous position allocation, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content to stay one step ahead of global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats Membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment.
---------------------------------
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Cash flow turns negative for the first time in over two years, Tesla's probability of beating earnings expectations remains 75%
Tesla will report its Q2 earnings after the market close on July 22. On the prediction market Polymarket, the new event “Will Tesla (TSLA) beat earnings expectations in its quarterly report?” has a “Yes” probability of 75%. The event only considers whether the company’s first official earnings release reports a non‑GAAP earnings per share strictly above $0.50; if the figure is exactly $0.50, it is settled as “No”. Revenue, free cash flow, capital expenditures, and post‑earnings stock price reaction do not affect the outcome.
On the 21st, LSEG data indicated that Tesla’s Q2 free cash flow is expected to be negative $3.3 billion, potentially marking the first quarterly cash outflow in more than two years. The aggregated sell‑side forecasts also show that capital expenditures for the quarter are expected to be close to $6.7 billion, reaching about $25.3 billion for the year, mainly for AI infrastructure, Robotaxi, Cybercab, and Optimus. Visible Alpha projects that Tesla’s automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, will fall from 19.2% in Q1 to 18.1%; Deutsche Bank believes that low‑interest financing options and the adjustment to FSD sales models could also suppress profits.
Tesla’s consensus released on July 17 shows that 21 sell‑side firms predict an average and median non‑GAAP earnings per share of $0.55, 5 cents above the market threshold. Tesla also delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, setting a quarterly record. Reuters, citing Barclays analysts, said the automotive business rebound could provide funding for AI investment.
---------------------------------
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Tesla will report its Q2 earnings after the market close on July 22. On the prediction market Polymarket, the new event “Will Tesla (TSLA) beat earnings expectations in its quarterly report?” has a “Yes” probability of 75%. The event only considers whether the company’s first official earnings release reports a non‑GAAP earnings per share strictly above $0.50; if the figure is exactly $0.50, it is settled as “No”. Revenue, free cash flow, capital expenditures, and post‑earnings stock price reaction do not affect the outcome.
On the 21st, LSEG data indicated that Tesla’s Q2 free cash flow is expected to be negative $3.3 billion, potentially marking the first quarterly cash outflow in more than two years. The aggregated sell‑side forecasts also show that capital expenditures for the quarter are expected to be close to $6.7 billion, reaching about $25.3 billion for the year, mainly for AI infrastructure, Robotaxi, Cybercab, and Optimus. Visible Alpha projects that Tesla’s automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, will fall from 19.2% in Q1 to 18.1%; Deutsche Bank believes that low‑interest financing options and the adjustment to FSD sales models could also suppress profits.
Tesla’s consensus released on July 17 shows that 21 sell‑side firms predict an average and median non‑GAAP earnings per share of $0.55, 5 cents above the market threshold. Tesla also delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, setting a quarterly record. Reuters, citing Barclays analysts, said the automotive business rebound could provide funding for AI investment.
---------------------------------
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Unexpected exposure of a stronger pre‑release model, OpenAI’s smart money predicts GPT‑6 will launch before October
In the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money invested $1.7k “Yes” on “Will GPT‑6 be released by September 30, 2026?”. The average buy probability is 58.8%, and the current “Yes” probability is 74.5%.
On the 21st, OpenAI first confirmed in a Hugging Face security incident statement that, in addition to GPT‑5.6 Sol, the company is also testing a “more powerful pre‑release model.” However, OpenAI has not disclosed the model’s name, architecture, or release date. The event rules require GPT‑6 to be publicly available before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on September 30, with closed testing not counted, and minor versions such as GPT‑5.7 cannot directly satisfy settlement.
The latest exposed pre‑release model demonstrates that the subsequent system has indeed entered testing. Reuters also noted that GPT‑5.6 was delayed due to U.S. government security reviews; this time, the model’s breach of the isolated environment prompted lawmakers to demand stronger independent testing. Yet OpenAI has been accelerating its model iteration pace in recent years, with the rapid upgrade from GPT‑5.5 to GPT‑5.6 setting a precedent for faster launch of new generations.
Note: Based on its past trade profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; instead, it exhibits behavior of taking profit or loss at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
In the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money invested $1.7k “Yes” on “Will GPT‑6 be released by September 30, 2026?”. The average buy probability is 58.8%, and the current “Yes” probability is 74.5%.
0x73653992 invested $1.7k, with the best related sector being OpenAI. The sector’s net profit is $11.5k. In that sector, 228 settled trades have a win rate of 139/228 (61%), of which 41 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.501–$0.65), the median invested amount is $216.
On the 21st, OpenAI first confirmed in a Hugging Face security incident statement that, in addition to GPT‑5.6 Sol, the company is also testing a “more powerful pre‑release model.” However, OpenAI has not disclosed the model’s name, architecture, or release date. The event rules require GPT‑6 to be publicly available before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on September 30, with closed testing not counted, and minor versions such as GPT‑5.7 cannot directly satisfy settlement.
The latest exposed pre‑release model demonstrates that the subsequent system has indeed entered testing. Reuters also noted that GPT‑5.6 was delayed due to U.S. government security reviews; this time, the model’s breach of the isolated environment prompted lawmakers to demand stronger independent testing. Yet OpenAI has been accelerating its model iteration pace in recent years, with the rapid upgrade from GPT‑5.5 to GPT‑5.6 setting a precedent for faster launch of new generations.
Note: Based on its past trade profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; instead, it exhibits behavior of taking profit or loss at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two major oil shipping lanes are simultaneously in distress, geopolitical smart money predicts whether oil prices will reach a new high
On the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money investor bought into “Will crude oil reach a new all‑time high before December 31?”, and the current probability of “yes” is 16.0%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock comprehensive account profiles, anomalous allocation operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
If you wish to subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be automatically sent after successful payment
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money investor bought into “Will crude oil reach a new all‑time high before December 31?”, and the current probability of “yes” is 16.0%.
Account 1 is most closely correlated with the Geopolitics sector in this market, with a net profit of $17.9k. In that sector, out of 39 settled trades, the win rate is 33/39 (85%), with 4 trades having a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock comprehensive account profiles, anomalous allocation operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
If you wish to subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be automatically sent after successful payment
---------------------------------
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PolyBeats is ordered by leadership to make improvements, and the editor is forced to open a prediction market
In the Telegram channel PolyBeats, the self-developed prediction market launched 2 days ago, titled 「What content direction does PolyBeats currently need to improve the most?」, currently the probability that the statement "too few images" is true is less than 100%.
According to a colleague, PolyBeats' data performance fell below leadership expectations, and it has now been listed as a key department under close watch, or faces the risk of cost
---------------------------------
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In the Telegram channel PolyBeats, the self-developed prediction market launched 2 days ago, titled 「What content direction does PolyBeats currently need to improve the most?」, currently the probability that the statement "too few images" is true is less than 100%.
According to a colleague, PolyBeats' data performance fell below leadership expectations, and it has now been listed as a key department under close watch, or faces the risk of cost
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two major oil shipping lanes are simultaneously in crisis, geopolitical smart money predicts whether oil prices will reach a new high On the market prediction platform Polymarket, one smart money investor bought into "Will crude oil reach a new all-time high by December 31?", where the "Yes" probability is currently 16.0%.
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Account1 is most correlated with the geopolitics sector in this market, which has a net profit of $17.9k. Their win rate across 39 settled trades in this sector is 33/39 (85%), with 4 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95.Subscribing to BlockBeats membership allows access to full market prediction news content, unlocking complete account profiles, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content, enabling you to stay ahead of global news developments. To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and upon successful payment, the channel link will be automatically sent
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Google claims Gemini 3.5 Pro has entered partner testing, with only a 5% chance of release this month
On the prediction market Polymarket, the market for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released this month?" currently has a probability of 5.3% for "Yes".
On the 21st, Google released Gemini 3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite, and 3.5 Flash Cyber, while confirming that Gemini 3.5 Pro is undergoing partner testing and will be widely opened as soon as preparations are complete. According to market rules, the Flash series and closed testing do not count as releases; a new model with the Pro label must be made available to the public, including through open testing or an open waiting list.
Business Insider reported that insiders say Google missed the June window but still aims for July. Some testers have already accessed the model via Antigravity and LMArena. The community's rumored July 17 date has fallen through, and July 24 is considered a backup window by some sources, but it has not yet received official confirmation.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the market for "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released this month?" currently has a probability of 5.3% for "Yes".
On the 21st, Google released Gemini 3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite, and 3.5 Flash Cyber, while confirming that Gemini 3.5 Pro is undergoing partner testing and will be widely opened as soon as preparations are complete. According to market rules, the Flash series and closed testing do not count as releases; a new model with the Pro label must be made available to the public, including through open testing or an open waiting list.
Business Insider reported that insiders say Google missed the June window but still aims for July. Some testers have already accessed the model via Antigravity and LMArena. The community's rumored July 17 date has fallen through, and July 24 is considered a backup window by some sources, but it has not yet received official confirmation.
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Google claims Gemini 3.5 Pro enters partner testing, probability of release this month only 5%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the current market "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released this month?" has a "Yes" probability of 5.3%.
On the 21st, Google released Gemini 3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite, and 3.5 Flash Cyber, while confirming that Gemini 3.5 Pro is undergoing partner testing and will be widely opened "as soon as possible" after preparation is complete. According to market rules, the Flash series and closed testing do not count as releases; there must be a new model with the Pro label opened to the public, including public testing or open waitlists.
Business Insider reports that insiders say although Google missed the June window, the internal target remains July, and some testers have already accessed the model through Antigravity and LMArena. The rumored July 17 date has fallen through, while July 24 is seen by some sources as a backup window, but has not yet received official confirmation.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the current market "Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released this month?" has a "Yes" probability of 5.3%.
On the 21st, Google released Gemini 3.6 Flash, 3.5 Flash-Lite, and 3.5 Flash Cyber, while confirming that Gemini 3.5 Pro is undergoing partner testing and will be widely opened "as soon as possible" after preparation is complete. According to market rules, the Flash series and closed testing do not count as releases; there must be a new model with the Pro label opened to the public, including public testing or open waitlists.
Business Insider reports that insiders say although Google missed the June window, the internal target remains July, and some testers have already accessed the model through Antigravity and LMArena. The rumored July 17 date has fallen through, while July 24 is seen by some sources as a backup window, but has not yet received official confirmation.
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1 Smart Money Buys "FC Seoul vs Pohang Steelers: FC Seoul Wins"
On the prediction market Polymarket, 15 minutes ago, 1 smart money invested $11.8k in "No" on "FC Seoul vs Pohang Steelers: FC Seoul Wins?", with an average buy probability of 46.3% and the current "Yes" probability at 52.5%.
Account:
0x0a39b3b29ab3b7dd753aa96fde4ecab3f2dbb0b9
Total Investment: $11.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 15 minutes ago, 1 smart money invested $11.8k in "No" on "FC Seoul vs Pohang Steelers: FC Seoul Wins?", with an average buy probability of 46.3% and the current "Yes" probability at 52.5%.
0x0a39b3b2 invested $11.8k, with the most relevant market sector being K League, and sector net profit of $86.6k. In this sector, it has 2 settled trades with a win rate of 2/2 (100%), including 2 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95.
Account:
0x0a39b3b29ab3b7dd753aa96fde4ecab3f2dbb0b9
Total Investment: $11.8k
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Kimi K3 Release Sparks Discussion on Chinese AI Models; 2 Smart Money Investors Predict the Best Chinese AI Model for This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have invested in "Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model by July 31?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 70.7%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors have invested in "Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model by July 31?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 70.7%.
Account 1's most relevant sector for this market is Artificial Intelligence, with a net profit of $10.0k in this sector. Their win rate across 160 settled trades in this sector is 118/160 (74%), including 34 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95.
Account 2's most relevant sector for this market is Artificial Intelligence, with a net profit of $4.9k in this sector. Their win rate across 73 settled trades in this sector is 36/73 (49%), including 27 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view full prediction market news content. Unlock complete account profiles, anomalous position allocation, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content to stay one step ahead of global news.
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The new version of the CLARITY Act prohibits officials from issuing tokens, and two smart money investors invest in CLARITY being unlikely to be signed within the year.
On the prediction market Polymarket, two smart money investors invest $6.2k 'No' in the Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026? market, with an average purchase probability of 56.3% and currently a 'Yes' probability of 37.5%.
On July 23, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett wrote that after Republican senators in the U.S. Senate held a briefing call with industry stakeholders, they released a new version of the CLARITY Act. The ethical provisions were negotiated by the White House and Republican senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno, and have not yet received Democratic support.
The new text proposes to prohibit the president, vice president, members of Congress, federal judges, and other officials and their spouses from earning compensation by issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their term, with the relevant provisions effective until January 20, 2029. Constrained officials must also sell crypto assets and crypto enterprise investments, or place them in a blind trust they cannot control; sales of crypto assets exceeding $1,000 must be disclosed.
The new text also adds a chapter on cryptocurrency crime enforcement, increases funding support for state and local investigations, and requires stablecoin issuers to legally freeze, seize, destroy, or reissue tokens. The bankruptcy clause clarifies that when an exchange or custodial platform goes bankrupt, customers' digital assets remain owned by the customers and should not be included in the company's bankruptcy estate.
Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, the trader is not speculating on whether the event actually occurs, and there is a practice of taking profits and cutting losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x32b61f77818ee062a1cf0ad4312752879e1a2f9f
0x40cfb29411d29f4fa0908f2a121297042cccd21d
Total investment: $6.2k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, two smart money investors invest $6.2k 'No' in the Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026? market, with an average purchase probability of 56.3% and currently a 'Yes' probability of 37.5%.
0x32b61f77 invests $4.3k, with the best related sector in this market being cryptocurrency, sector net profit $8.5k. Its win rate in that sector across 106 settled transactions is 83/106 (78%), of which 32 transactions have a purchase price less than $0.8 and a sell price greater than $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.451-$0.6), its historical investment median amount is $100, and this investment is 43.2 times the median.
whig invests $1.8k, with the best related sector in this market being politics, sector net profit $220k. Its win rate in that sector across 668 settled transactions is 416/668 (62%), of which 195 transactions have a purchase price less than $0.8 and a sell price greater than $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.551-$0.7), its historical investment median amount is $1.2k.
On July 23, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett wrote that after Republican senators in the U.S. Senate held a briefing call with industry stakeholders, they released a new version of the CLARITY Act. The ethical provisions were negotiated by the White House and Republican senators Cynthia Lummis and Bernie Moreno, and have not yet received Democratic support.
The new text proposes to prohibit the president, vice president, members of Congress, federal judges, and other officials and their spouses from earning compensation by issuing or sponsoring digital assets during their term, with the relevant provisions effective until January 20, 2029. Constrained officials must also sell crypto assets and crypto enterprise investments, or place them in a blind trust they cannot control; sales of crypto assets exceeding $1,000 must be disclosed.
The new text also adds a chapter on cryptocurrency crime enforcement, increases funding support for state and local investigations, and requires stablecoin issuers to legally freeze, seize, destroy, or reissue tokens. The bankruptcy clause clarifies that when an exchange or custodial platform goes bankrupt, customers' digital assets remain owned by the customers and should not be included in the company's bankruptcy estate.
Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, the trader is not speculating on whether the event actually occurs, and there is a practice of taking profits and cutting losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x32b61f77818ee062a1cf0ad4312752879e1a2f9f
0x40cfb29411d29f4fa0908f2a121297042cccd21d
Total investment: $6.2k
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T-0 After Ignition Failure, SpaceX Smart Money Predicts Starship 13th Test Flight Explosion
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 SpaceX sector smart money invested $4.5k on "Yes" for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy Explode?", with an average buy probability of 78.4%. The current "Yes" probability is 82.0%.
SpaceX plans to conduct the Starship 13th flight test as early as 18:45 Eastern Time on July 23, which corresponds to 06:45 Beijing Time on July 24. Flight 13 will use Booster 20 and Ship 40, both making their first flights. The mission includes deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, performing an in-air engine restart, and attempting a controlled splashdown for the Super Heavy in the Gulf of Mexico.
This is the second launch attempt for Flight 13. This mission will not attempt to capture the booster with the launch tower mechanical arm; instead, it will test ascent, stage separation, return ignition, and ocean landing ignition. The high probability of an explosion event is related to the settlement rules: the statistical window starts from fuel loading and extends for 60 minutes after the booster touches the sea. Even if the flight proceeds normally, if the booster tips over and explodes after touching the sea, it will be settled as "Yes."
The Super Heavy from Flight 12 exploded in the Gulf of Mexico after high-speed impact due to thermal separation damage, 5 engines failing to relight, and incorrect alarm parameters. SpaceX has modified the relighting hardware and engine alarm logic for Flight 13, but the new ignition anomaly exposed by the first launch attempt still makes Booster 20's complete return the most watched aspect of this test.
Note: Based on the investor's past trading profile, this investor is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; there is a behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x6560abb717a8e5f3afaacd1a31e9c03eed71e164
Total Investment: $4.5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 SpaceX sector smart money invested $4.5k on "Yes" for "Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Superheavy Explode?", with an average buy probability of 78.4%. The current "Yes" probability is 82.0%.
1walrus invested $4.5k. The best correlated sector for this market is Technology, with a sector net profit of $26.6k. In this sector, the investor has a win rate of 124/224 (55%) across 224 settled trades, including 44 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. In the similar cost price range ($0.701-$0.85), the historical median investment amount is $48; this investment is 94.9 times that median.
SpaceX plans to conduct the Starship 13th flight test as early as 18:45 Eastern Time on July 23, which corresponds to 06:45 Beijing Time on July 24. Flight 13 will use Booster 20 and Ship 40, both making their first flights. The mission includes deploying 20 Starlink V3 satellites, performing an in-air engine restart, and attempting a controlled splashdown for the Super Heavy in the Gulf of Mexico.
This is the second launch attempt for Flight 13. This mission will not attempt to capture the booster with the launch tower mechanical arm; instead, it will test ascent, stage separation, return ignition, and ocean landing ignition. The high probability of an explosion event is related to the settlement rules: the statistical window starts from fuel loading and extends for 60 minutes after the booster touches the sea. Even if the flight proceeds normally, if the booster tips over and explodes after touching the sea, it will be settled as "Yes."
The Super Heavy from Flight 12 exploded in the Gulf of Mexico after high-speed impact due to thermal separation damage, 5 engines failing to relight, and incorrect alarm parameters. SpaceX has modified the relighting hardware and engine alarm logic for Flight 13, but the new ignition anomaly exposed by the first launch attempt still makes Booster 20's complete return the most watched aspect of this test.
Note: Based on the investor's past trading profile, this investor is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; there is a behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x6560abb717a8e5f3afaacd1a31e9c03eed71e164
Total Investment: $4.5k
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ICO Smart Money Prediction: The committed investment for the RipCars public sale will not exceed $40 million
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor invested $1000 on the question "Will the committed investment for the RipCars public sale exceed $4 million?" with a "No" answer, achieving an average entry probability of 78.5%, while the current "Yes" probability stands at 8.5%.
RipCars is a blind-box platform for physical model cars inspired by Hot Wheels collecting culture. Users can online open mystery car packs supported by real inventory, choosing to continue custodial services, redeem physical model cars, or sell back to the platform. The project launched a four-day CARS public sale on MetaDAO on July 21st, with a total supply of 25.8 million tokens, of which 10 million were sold publicly at $0.025, 2.9 million allocated for AMM liquidity, resulting in an initial FDV of $645,000; the team's 1.29 million token allocation will vest over 18 months, with tokens released in batches ranging from 2x to 32x the ICO price.
According to MetaDAO's official page, RipCars' committed investment has reached approximately $23.02 million from 553 addresses, which is about 92 times the $250,000 target, but still falls short of the $40 million goal by approximately $16.98 million.
Note: Based on this trader's historical trading patterns, this investment does not appear to be a speculative bet on whether the event will actually occur; rather, it involves opening positions followed by taking profits or cutting losses at certain time points.
Address:
0x22292decebf2e9146b27fe59404d162447ea6bf8
Total Investment: $1000
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor invested $1000 on the question "Will the committed investment for the RipCars public sale exceed $4 million?" with a "No" answer, achieving an average entry probability of 78.5%, while the current "Yes" probability stands at 8.5%.
0x22292dec invested $1000, with the market's top correlated category beingPublic Sale, generating a net profit of $57.5k for this category. Across 64 settled trades in this category, the win rate stands at 49/64 (77%), including 25 trades where the entry price was below $0.8 and the exit price exceeded $0.95. Within the similar price range ($0.701-$0.85), the historical median investment amount for this trader is $1.9k.
RipCars is a blind-box platform for physical model cars inspired by Hot Wheels collecting culture. Users can online open mystery car packs supported by real inventory, choosing to continue custodial services, redeem physical model cars, or sell back to the platform. The project launched a four-day CARS public sale on MetaDAO on July 21st, with a total supply of 25.8 million tokens, of which 10 million were sold publicly at $0.025, 2.9 million allocated for AMM liquidity, resulting in an initial FDV of $645,000; the team's 1.29 million token allocation will vest over 18 months, with tokens released in batches ranging from 2x to 32x the ICO price.
According to MetaDAO's official page, RipCars' committed investment has reached approximately $23.02 million from 553 addresses, which is about 92 times the $250,000 target, but still falls short of the $40 million goal by approximately $16.98 million.
Note: Based on this trader's historical trading patterns, this investment does not appear to be a speculative bet on whether the event will actually occur; rather, it involves opening positions followed by taking profits or cutting losses at certain time points.
Address:
0x22292decebf2e9146b27fe59404d162447ea6bf8
Total Investment: $1000
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A suspicious insider account, silent for a year, predicts the future course of Middle East geopolitical conflicts and previously profited $120,000 from the US‑Israel‑Iran war on the 12th
On the prediction market Polymarket, one account invested in markets on whether airspace would be closed, the duration of a ceasefire, and other Middle East geopolitical conflict markets, with a total investment of $25k.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, one account invested in markets on whether airspace would be closed, the duration of a ceasefire, and other Middle East geopolitical conflict markets, with a total investment of $25k.
Account 1’s best correlated sector in this market is Iran, with a net profit of $125k. In that sector, it has 4 settled trades with a win rate of 4/4 (100%), all of which had purchase prices below $0.8 and sale prices above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock comprehensive account profiles, anomalous split‑portfolio operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, keeping you one step ahead of global news movements.
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