Oil price returns to $90, macro sector account with 78% win rate predicts ECB will not change rates in September
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 hour ago, 1 smart money invested $680 in "Yes" on 「Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?」 at an average buy probability of 32.9%, causing the "Yes" probability to rise from 12.0% to 17.0%.
Eurozone inflation in June retreated from 3.2% in May to 2.8%, with services inflation falling from 3.5% to 3.2%, and the core measure also dropping from 2.6% to 2.4%. This provides room for the ECB to wait and see at the July 23 meeting and await more data.
Even so, market expectations for a rate hike remain high. A Reuters survey of 74 economists on July 16 showed all respondents expect the ECB to hold at 2.25% in July, but 52, or about 70%, still expect at least one more hike this year, most likely in September.
A more tricky new variable comes from energy. Reuters reported on July 20 that after the US-Iran conflict escalated and Hormuz shipping risks rose, Brent crude briefly rose to $90.87 per barrel, up 3.14% on the day and 15.9% cumulatively over the previous week.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x49ae18c82dab9fd3a2bb84d0a96c3ded503ff3ba
Total invested: $680
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 hour ago, 1 smart money invested $680 in "Yes" on 「Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?」 at an average buy probability of 32.9%, causing the "Yes" probability to rise from 12.0% to 17.0%.
0x49ae18c8 invested $680, with the best correlated sector of this market being Macro, with a net profit of $8.4k in the sector. Across 77 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 60/77 (78%), of which 5 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251-$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $191.
Eurozone inflation in June retreated from 3.2% in May to 2.8%, with services inflation falling from 3.5% to 3.2%, and the core measure also dropping from 2.6% to 2.4%. This provides room for the ECB to wait and see at the July 23 meeting and await more data.
Even so, market expectations for a rate hike remain high. A Reuters survey of 74 economists on July 16 showed all respondents expect the ECB to hold at 2.25% in July, but 52, or about 70%, still expect at least one more hike this year, most likely in September.
A more tricky new variable comes from energy. Reuters reported on July 20 that after the US-Iran conflict escalated and Hormuz shipping risks rose, Brent crude briefly rose to $90.87 per barrel, up 3.14% on the day and 15.9% cumulatively over the previous week.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x49ae18c82dab9fd3a2bb84d0a96c3ded503ff3ba
Total invested: $680
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Continuous airstrikes, naval blockade, Iran ceasefire 78% win rate smart money predicts when the US will announce halt to offensive against Iran
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested in "Will the US announce a halt to offensive operations against Iran by August 31?" Will the US announce a halt to offensive operations against Iran by August 31?, currently the probability of "Yes" is 60.0%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested in "Will the US announce a halt to offensive operations against Iran by August 31?" Will the US announce a halt to offensive operations against Iran by August 31?, currently the probability of "Yes" is 60.0%.
Account 1's best correlated sector in this market is Iran Ceasefire, with a net profit of $96.1k in the sector. It has a win rate of 86/110 (78%) across 110 settled trades in this sector, of which 53 trades were bought at a price below $0.8 and sold at a price above $0.95.
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Cursor rumored to have leaked new Claude model; 77%-win-rate account believes next "Opus" will not launch within 5 days
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart-money investor invested $2.1k in "No" on "<Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?", with an average buy probability of 27.7%; the current probability for "Yes" is 53.0%.
The most concrete recent positive signal is that the developer community reported Cursor's model selector briefly showed "Claude Honeycomb EAP" on July 8–9. This was interpreted by some as a preview of Anthropic's next-generation flagship, but neither Anthropic nor Cursor has confirmed its identity; no corresponding model appears in public APIs, system cards, or product documentation.
There is also an easily misread official date on July 24: Anthropic will remove Opus 4.7's fast mode on that day, but officially recommends developers migrate to the already-existing Opus 4.8, not a teaser for a new Opus launch.
Note: Based on its past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x75a27d0cc95b3586297c1e6b5417269332cd6992
Total invested: $2.1k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart-money investor invested $2.1k in "No" on "<Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?", with an average buy probability of 27.7%; the current probability for "Yes" is 53.0%.
0x75a27d0c invested $2.1k; the most relevant sector for this market is Claude, with a net sector profit of $10.2k. Across this sector, it has a win rate of 10/13 (77%) over 13 settled trades, of which 9 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.301–$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $1.0k.
The most concrete recent positive signal is that the developer community reported Cursor's model selector briefly showed "Claude Honeycomb EAP" on July 8–9. This was interpreted by some as a preview of Anthropic's next-generation flagship, but neither Anthropic nor Cursor has confirmed its identity; no corresponding model appears in public APIs, system cards, or product documentation.
There is also an easily misread official date on July 24: Anthropic will remove Opus 4.7's fast mode on that day, but officially recommends developers migrate to the already-existing Opus 4.8, not a teaser for a new Opus launch.
Note: Based on its past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x75a27d0cc95b3586297c1e6b5417269332cd6992
Total invested: $2.1k
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Ten-Day Ceasefire Proposal Aims to Save Negotiations, US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal Still Stalled on Enriched Uranium and IAEA Verification
On prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor invested $6.2k on "no" in the question "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by the end of this year?", with an average buy-in probability of 70.4%, currently showing a "yes" probability of 32.5%.
This is not a "ceasefire" or "negotiation resumption" market. The market settlement requires both US and Iranian sides to sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic agreement within this year, and be recognized as the "final agreement" envisioned in the June understanding. The document must also include at least one quantifiable and verifiable nuclear restriction, such as an enriched uranium purity cap, or commitments to transfer, destroy, or dilute enriched uranium stockpiles.
June's understanding only established a 60-day extendable negotiation window, leaving core issues like enriched uranium stockpiles, frameworks, and verification to a second phase. Reuters reported on July 20 that mediators have delivered a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran, aiming to create space to restart last month's temporary arrangement; however, on the same day, US forces conducted their ninth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, and Iran continued regional attacks, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz still significantly disrupted.
Axios reported on the 21st that neither side has accepted the proposal as of the time of writing.
Note: Based on the trader's historical trading profile, this investment does not appear to be a wager on whether the event actually occurs; rather, it involves taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening positions.
Account:
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Total investment: $6.2k
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On prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor invested $6.2k on "no" in the question "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by the end of this year?", with an average buy-in probability of 70.4%, currently showing a "yes" probability of 32.5%.
Mr-Krabs invested $6.2k, with the best-related market category being Geopolitics, generating a net profit of $73.1k in that category. Across 420 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 329/420 (78%), with 67 trades where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $4.1k.
This is not a "ceasefire" or "negotiation resumption" market. The market settlement requires both US and Iranian sides to sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic agreement within this year, and be recognized as the "final agreement" envisioned in the June understanding. The document must also include at least one quantifiable and verifiable nuclear restriction, such as an enriched uranium purity cap, or commitments to transfer, destroy, or dilute enriched uranium stockpiles.
June's understanding only established a 60-day extendable negotiation window, leaving core issues like enriched uranium stockpiles, frameworks, and verification to a second phase. Reuters reported on July 20 that mediators have delivered a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran, aiming to create space to restart last month's temporary arrangement; however, on the same day, US forces conducted their ninth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, and Iran continued regional attacks, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz still significantly disrupted.
Axios reported on the 21st that neither side has accepted the proposal as of the time of writing.
Note: Based on the trader's historical trading profile, this investment does not appear to be a wager on whether the event actually occurs; rather, it involves taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening positions.
Account:
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Total investment: $6.2k
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Commercial Activity Index Hits New Low, Smart Money Predicts $1.5k Russian Central Bank Rate Cut in July On the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money investor put $1.5k on "Yes" for the question "Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July meeting?", with an average buy probability of 39.3%. Currently, the "Yes" probability stands at 53.5%.
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0x88a132c7 invested $1.5k, with the most correlated sector being Global Interest Rates, which has a net profit of $15.9k. Their win rate in this sector across 8 settled trades is 7/8 (88%), including 2 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95.The Bank of Russia has cut the key rate nine times since launching its easing cycle in 2025, gradually lowering the benchmark rate to the current 14.25%. The most recent adjustment occurred in June, with only a 25 basis point reduction, indicating a noticeable slowdown in policy pace. Amid stagflation with inflation temporarily rising and economic growth weakening, the central bank faces a trade-off between curbing price pressures and supporting the economy. Markets are closely watching whether the Bank of Russia will continue its rate-cutting cycle in the July meeting or choose to pause temporarily. On the 20th, Banki cited analyst views stating that fuel price hikes mainly stem from supply shocks, with core inflation not yet worsening. Analysts believe that a strong ruble and tight financial conditions are still suppressing the economy. If inflation expectations do not significantly worsen, the central bank might cut another 25 basis points while sending stronger signals to prepare for a pause in autumn. Another view notes that the June rate cut was only slight, indicating the central bank is slowing its easing pace. Additionally, the July commercial activity index dropped to -3.6, the lowest since 2022. Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, this investor is not betting on whether the event will actually occur but may be taking profits or cutting losses at certain points. Account: 0x88a132c7b2d1901d783ce3307adb36c78428618d Total investment: $1.5k
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1 new account buys into “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch before August 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $2.6k “No” in “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch before August 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 13.6%, and the current “Yes” probability is 93.0%.
Account:
0xd5a6ba5f902af11044070bdb4a5e57322162d4f0
Total invested: $2.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $2.6k “No” in “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch before August 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 13.6%, and the current “Yes” probability is 93.0%.
Account:
0xd5a6ba5f902af11044070bdb4a5e57322162d4f0
Total invested: $2.6k
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1 savvy investor buys into "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal this year?"
In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 savvy investor invested $6.2k in "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal this year?" with a "No" position, averaging a purchase probability of 70.4%, and the current probability of "Yes" is 32.5%.
Note: Based on his past trade profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event actually occurs; he engages in taking profits or losses at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Total investment: $6.2k
---------------------------------
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In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 savvy investor invested $6.2k in "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal this year?" with a "No" position, averaging a purchase probability of 70.4%, and the current probability of "Yes" is 32.5%.
Mr-Krabs invested $6.2k, and the best correlated sector in this market is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $73.1k. In that sector, among 420 settled trades, the win rate is 329/420 (78%), of which 67 trades had purchase price below $0.8 and sale price above $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.651-$0.8), the median of his historical investment amounts is $4.1k.
Note: Based on his past trade profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event actually occurs; he engages in taking profits or losses at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Total investment: $6.2k
---------------------------------
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Starship Launch Countdown Stopped One Second Before Takeoff, New Account All In Details of Next Test Flight
On the prediction market Polymarket, one new account invested in "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Will Launch Before August 31?", with the current probability of "yes" at 93.0%. In addition to this trade, the account also predicted whether the Starship booster would explode, with a total investment of $8k.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal split‑position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
If you need to subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment
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On the prediction market Polymarket, one new account invested in "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Will Launch Before August 31?", with the current probability of "yes" at 93.0%. In addition to this trade, the account also predicted whether the Starship booster would explode, with a total investment of $8k.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal split‑position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
If you need to subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment
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1 smart investor invests in 'Will NATO and Russia have a military conflict between September 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025?'
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart investor invests $51.7k 'No' in Will NATO and Russia have a military conflict between September 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025?, average purchase probability is 78.6%, current 'Yes' probability is 16.5%.
0xfaf98181c44636998a194aa7660bcae1b977f4c4 Total investment: $51.7k
Note: According to his past transaction profile, the investor is not investing on whether the event actually occurs; there is behavior of taking profit and stop loss after opening a position at some point.
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart investor invests $51.7k 'No' in Will NATO and Russia have a military conflict between September 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025?, average purchase probability is 78.6%, current 'Yes' probability is 16.5%.
0xfaf98181 invests $51.7k, is most closely related to the top sector in this market Russia, sector net profit $10.8k. It has a win rate of 7/7 (100%) on the 7 settled transactions in that sector, and there are 0 transactions where the purchase price is less than $0.8 and the sell price is greater than $0.95.
0xfaf98181c44636998a194aa7660bcae1b977f4c4 Total investment: $51.7k
Note: According to his past transaction profile, the investor is not investing on whether the event actually occurs; there is behavior of taking profit and stop loss after opening a position at some point.
---------------------------------
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82% of accounts believe "Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will not exceed $280M at its opening weekend
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor in ""Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opening weekend box office will exceed $280M?" invested $3.8k "no", with an average buy probability of 74.8%, and current "yes" probability at 30.9%.
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will premiere in North America on July 31. This event only counts box office data from July 31 to August 2 in the US and Canada, excluding China and other international markets.
On July 20, Box Office Theory predicted the film's North American opening weekend gross would be approximately $2.28 billion, still about $52 million short of the threshold; that same day, AMC CEO Adam Aron listed the film as a core title to drive second-half box office growth; "Entertainment Weekly" today revealed the studio is leveraging Sadie Sink's role mystery to continue pre-release hype. Current information shows strong buzz, but surpassing $2.8 billion would require significantly exceeding current industry forecasts.
Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, this appears to be a position opened with the intention of closing at a specific time for profit or loss, rather than betting on whether the event actually occurs.
Account:
0x7fa6c6474e20e9f6ce388847be32611667e216f9
Total investment: $3.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor in ""Spider-Man: Brand New Day" opening weekend box office will exceed $280M?" invested $3.8k "no", with an average buy probability of 74.8%, and current "yes" probability at 30.9%.
0x7fa6c647 invested $3.8k, with the best related sector beingbox office, achieving a net profit of $16.3k. Their win rate in this sector across 217 settled trades is 178/217 (82%), with 49 trades where buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.651-$0.8), their historical investment median was $140, and this trade is 27.1 times that median.
"Spider-Man: Brand New Day" will premiere in North America on July 31. This event only counts box office data from July 31 to August 2 in the US and Canada, excluding China and other international markets.
On July 20, Box Office Theory predicted the film's North American opening weekend gross would be approximately $2.28 billion, still about $52 million short of the threshold; that same day, AMC CEO Adam Aron listed the film as a core title to drive second-half box office growth; "Entertainment Weekly" today revealed the studio is leveraging Sadie Sink's role mystery to continue pre-release hype. Current information shows strong buzz, but surpassing $2.8 billion would require significantly exceeding current industry forecasts.
Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, this appears to be a position opened with the intention of closing at a specific time for profit or loss, rather than betting on whether the event actually occurs.
Account:
0x7fa6c6474e20e9f6ce388847be32611667e216f9
Total investment: $3.8k
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PolyBeats Improvement Direction Prediction Market Probability Announcement
The new prediction market launched yesterday, «PolyBeats' most needed improvement direction is ___?», I can't think of any content, no matter what you invest in, there's something, the m-editor has been scolded by the boss to the point of being angry.
Successful predictors can obtain value 20u of 7-day PolyBeats Pro, hoping the predictors provide more suggestions~
If you have specific improvement suggestions, you can private chat @zhy_liu, and upon adoption, you can obtain value 79u of 30-day PolyBeats Pro!
---------------------------------
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The new prediction market launched yesterday, «PolyBeats' most needed improvement direction is ___?», I can't think of any content, no matter what you invest in, there's something, the m-editor has been scolded by the boss to the point of being angry.
Successful predictors can obtain value 20u of 7-day PolyBeats Pro, hoping the predictors provide more suggestions~
If you have specific improvement suggestions, you can private chat @zhy_liu, and upon adoption, you can obtain value 79u of 30-day PolyBeats Pro!
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
The "Streaming Emmy Awards Overall Ranking Prediction" has been released, and HBO Max currently holds the top nomination spot with 122 nominations
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new event "Which streaming service will win the most Emmys?" launched today. Currently, there is no valid matching probability for this event, and the trading volume is 0. The Emmy Awards will be presented in stages from September 5 to 14, and the final outcome depends on each platform's ability to convert nominations into wins.
The event statistics cover all awards in the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. Regardless of whether the winner is a series, an actor, or behind‑the‑scenes staff, the award will be credited to the streaming platform that hosts the work; if the final award counts are identical, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of the platform's English name.
According to the Emmy nomination list, HBO Max leads with 122 nominations, followed closely by Netflix with 111, and Apple TV with 87. HBO Max relies heavily on "Pittsburgh Nurse" and "Desperate Writer," while Netflix is banking on "Beef." According to predictions from the Los Angeles Times, Noah Wyle, star of "Pittsburgh Nurse," is a favorite for Lead Actor in a Drama, and Jane Smart from "Desperate Writer" is also highly regarded; in the Limited Series category, competition is fierce between "DTF St. Louis" and "Beef."
Although Apple TV ranks third in nominations, it holds advantages in key categories. The Los Angeles Times predicts that Leah Seychoux, star of "The Joyful," is favored to win Lead Actress in a Drama, "Widow’s Bay" leads in the Comedy Series predictions, and Harrison Ford from "In Treatment" is also expected to win.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new event "Which streaming service will win the most Emmys?" launched today. Currently, there is no valid matching probability for this event, and the trading volume is 0. The Emmy Awards will be presented in stages from September 5 to 14, and the final outcome depends on each platform's ability to convert nominations into wins.
The event statistics cover all awards in the 78th Primetime Emmy Awards. Regardless of whether the winner is a series, an actor, or behind‑the‑scenes staff, the award will be credited to the streaming platform that hosts the work; if the final award counts are identical, the winner is determined by alphabetical order of the platform's English name.
According to the Emmy nomination list, HBO Max leads with 122 nominations, followed closely by Netflix with 111, and Apple TV with 87. HBO Max relies heavily on "Pittsburgh Nurse" and "Desperate Writer," while Netflix is banking on "Beef." According to predictions from the Los Angeles Times, Noah Wyle, star of "Pittsburgh Nurse," is a favorite for Lead Actor in a Drama, and Jane Smart from "Desperate Writer" is also highly regarded; in the Limited Series category, competition is fierce between "DTF St. Louis" and "Beef."
Although Apple TV ranks third in nominations, it holds advantages in key categories. The Los Angeles Times predicts that Leah Seychoux, star of "The Joyful," is favored to win Lead Actress in a Drama, "Widow’s Bay" leads in the Comedy Series predictions, and Harrison Ford from "In Treatment" is also expected to win.
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Russian aircraft approach UK carrier, Smart Money $51,700 invests NATO‑Russia clash
In the prediction market Polymarket, one Smart Money participant invested in “Will NATO and Russia have a military clash before 2027?”, and the current probability of “Yes” is 16.5%.
Subscribing to BlockBeats membership allows you to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal split‑portfolio operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and after successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically
---------------------------------
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In the prediction market Polymarket, one Smart Money participant invested in “Will NATO and Russia have a military clash before 2027?”, and the current probability of “Yes” is 16.5%.
Account 1 is most closely correlated with the Russia sector in this market, with a net profit of $10.8k. In that sector, out of 7 settled trades, the win rate is 7/7 (100%), and there were 0 trades where the purchase price was below $0.8 and the sale price above $0.95.
Subscribing to BlockBeats membership allows you to view the full prediction market news content, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal split‑portfolio operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and after successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically
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White House reportedly nods to ethics clause, 2 smart money predict Clarity Act will not be signed into law this year
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money placed $2.3k on “Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?” with a “No” bet, an average buy probability of 66.4%, and a current “Yes” probability of 42.5%.
At 7 pm Beijing time on July 21, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett and PunchbowlNews were the first to report that Trump had agreed to include an ethics clause in the CLARITY Act; The Block subsequently cited industry sources confirming that the White House and Republicans had reached an agreement on that portion. For months prior, a clause limiting presidents, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote.
When the report was released, the final text had not yet been made public, and Democrats had not seen the specific language; therefore, the so‑called “clearing of obstacles” remains based on source accounts of negotiation progress, not on a bipartisan public confirmation of a final agreement.
The CLARITY Act is not merely a stablecoin bill; it is a crypto market‑structure act that seeks to delineate the regulatory boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for digital assets, and to establish a framework for trading platforms, brokers, client asset protection, and compliance requirements. The bill passed the House in July 2025 with a 294‑to‑134 vote, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced a version in May of this year with a 15‑to‑9 vote.
Note: Based on its past trade profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; instead, they open a position and later take profit or loss at a certain point in time.
Accounts:
0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20
0xdc4f08727c65afc4731b75cf1ed265666b7b4652
Total investment: $2.3k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money placed $2.3k on “Will the Clarity Act be signed into law in 2026?” with a “No” bet, an average buy probability of 66.4%, and a current “Yes” probability of 42.5%.
0x4a2be7a7 invested $1.3k, with the best related sector in this market being politics, and the sector net profit was $67.2k. In that sector, 553 settled trades had a win rate of 213/553 (39%), of which 156 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.601-$0.75), the median historical investment amount was $1.3k.
0xdc4f0872 invested $1.0k, with the best related sector in this market being politics, and the sector net profit was $109k. In that sector, 50 settled trades had a win rate of 38/50 (76%), of which 1 trade had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.
At 7 pm Beijing time on July 21, crypto journalist Eleanor Terrett and PunchbowlNews were the first to report that Trump had agreed to include an ethics clause in the CLARITY Act; The Block subsequently cited industry sources confirming that the White House and Republicans had reached an agreement on that portion. For months prior, a clause limiting presidents, senior officials, and members of Congress from profiting from crypto had been the biggest political obstacle to a full Senate vote.
When the report was released, the final text had not yet been made public, and Democrats had not seen the specific language; therefore, the so‑called “clearing of obstacles” remains based on source accounts of negotiation progress, not on a bipartisan public confirmation of a final agreement.
The CLARITY Act is not merely a stablecoin bill; it is a crypto market‑structure act that seeks to delineate the regulatory boundaries between the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission and the Commodity Futures Trading Commission for digital assets, and to establish a framework for trading platforms, brokers, client asset protection, and compliance requirements. The bill passed the House in July 2025 with a 294‑to‑134 vote, and the Senate Banking Committee advanced a version in May of this year with a 15‑to‑9 vote.
Note: Based on its past trade profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; instead, they open a position and later take profit or loss at a certain point in time.
Accounts:
0x4a2be7a7e6e3b41dc2de00706b4c09660ca9af20
0xdc4f08727c65afc4731b75cf1ed265666b7b4652
Total investment: $2.3k
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Trump threatens to strike Iranian nuclear facilities, rate market smart money predicts Fed rate hike in 2026
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors invested $2.6k in "yes" on "Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?", with an average buy probability of 59.9%, and the current "yes" probability is 60.5%.
On the 21st, Trump stated that the US will likely strike Iran's underground nuclear facility "Pickaxe" very soon and will strongly hit any locations used to develop nuclear capabilities; if Houthi militants block the Red Sea shipping lanes, the US will also "handle this matter." Today, Reuters reported that US forces conducted their 11th consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, while Iran attacked US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and Houthi militants threatened to attack Saudi oil transported through the Mandeb Strait. Brent crude immediately rose to $91.51 per barrel, WTI to $84.64. International oil prices have risen about 30% in recent weeks, and US average gasoline prices have once again broken above $4 per gallon. If the conflict continues and both the Hormuz Strait and Mandeb Strait are blocked, energy and transportation costs could push US inflation higher again.
Monetary policy expectations are also shifting. A Reuters survey released on the 21st showed that out of 67 economists who answered related questions, 44 believe there is a higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes in 2026, while last month most believed the likelihood was low; however, all 104 respondents still expect the July meeting to maintain 3.50%-3.75%, with 78 expecting no changes throughout the year. Goldman Sachs noted on the same day that war and AI demand could keep US inflation near 3% rather than 2%, and that job growth remains above the level needed to maintain stable unemployment despite high oil prices.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and there is behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at certain time points after opening positions.
Accounts:
0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Total invested: $2.6k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money investors invested $2.6k in "yes" on "Will the Fed raise rates in 2026?", with an average buy probability of 59.9%, and the current "yes" probability is 60.5%.
Ahpo invested $1.5k, with the most relevant sector being Fed Rates, sector net profit $13.9k. In this sector, they have a win rate of 94/105 (90%) across 105 settled trades, with 6 trades where buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95.
Tenebrus7 invested $1.1k, with the most relevant sector being Economic Systems, sector net profit $8.3k. In this sector, they have a win rate of 64/85 (75%) across 85 settled trades, with 13 trades where buy price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.601-$0.65), their historical investment median is $4.8k.
On the 21st, Trump stated that the US will likely strike Iran's underground nuclear facility "Pickaxe" very soon and will strongly hit any locations used to develop nuclear capabilities; if Houthi militants block the Red Sea shipping lanes, the US will also "handle this matter." Today, Reuters reported that US forces conducted their 11th consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, while Iran attacked US facilities in Bahrain, Kuwait, and Jordan, and Houthi militants threatened to attack Saudi oil transported through the Mandeb Strait. Brent crude immediately rose to $91.51 per barrel, WTI to $84.64. International oil prices have risen about 30% in recent weeks, and US average gasoline prices have once again broken above $4 per gallon. If the conflict continues and both the Hormuz Strait and Mandeb Strait are blocked, energy and transportation costs could push US inflation higher again.
Monetary policy expectations are also shifting. A Reuters survey released on the 21st showed that out of 67 economists who answered related questions, 44 believe there is a higher likelihood of Fed rate hikes in 2026, while last month most believed the likelihood was low; however, all 104 respondents still expect the July meeting to maintain 3.50%-3.75%, with 78 expecting no changes throughout the year. Goldman Sachs noted on the same day that war and AI demand could keep US inflation near 3% rather than 2%, and that job growth remains above the level needed to maintain stable unemployment despite high oil prices.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and there is behavior of taking profits or cutting losses at certain time points after opening positions.
Accounts:
0xcdb1f1ef8213c06911e4ba6a884176c5571e276c
0xa8c63f775ddbbe66b56614191747def3021444e8
Total invested: $2.6k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Miami Heat YouTube official page shows "James appearance" pre-release page, probability of joining Heat rises to nearly 50%
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $4.4k in "yes" on "Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in the 2026-27 season?", with an average buy-in probability of 38.9% and the current "yes" probability at 46.3%.
Recently, social media discovered that the Miami Heat's official YouTube channel had a pre-scheduled page titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference | July 27, 2026" (LeBron James appearance press conference | July 27, 2026), with the page description mentioning welcoming James back to the Heat; the page was later set to private. As of now, the Heat, James, agent Rich Paul, ESPN, Shams, Reuters, or AP have not confirmed a signing.
The Heat have acquired Bam Adebayo, and the team also includes Andrew Wiggins and others; if James joins, he could take on more organizational and clutch ball-handling duties, not having to carry the entire offense alone like he did with the Lakers in the end. James publicly emphasized that winning a championship is more important than salary, and with his four-year partnership with Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra and two championships, the Heat's championship narrative is therefore complete.
Account:
0x11ed2594f0dd47250130907a9cca2ab57d288a89
Total invested: $4.4k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $4.4k in "yes" on "Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in the 2026-27 season?", with an average buy-in probability of 38.9% and the current "yes" probability at 46.3%.
Recently, social media discovered that the Miami Heat's official YouTube channel had a pre-scheduled page titled "LeBron James Introductory Press Conference | July 27, 2026" (LeBron James appearance press conference | July 27, 2026), with the page description mentioning welcoming James back to the Heat; the page was later set to private. As of now, the Heat, James, agent Rich Paul, ESPN, Shams, Reuters, or AP have not confirmed a signing.
The Heat have acquired Bam Adebayo, and the team also includes Andrew Wiggins and others; if James joins, he could take on more organizational and clutch ball-handling duties, not having to carry the entire offense alone like he did with the Lakers in the end. James publicly emphasized that winning a championship is more important than salary, and with his four-year partnership with Pat Riley and Erik Spoelstra and two championships, the Heat's championship narrative is therefore complete.
Account:
0x11ed2594f0dd47250130907a9cca2ab57d288a89
Total invested: $4.4k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Trump threatens to invade Iran; 3 high-win-rate accounts predict if Trump is going to TACO again
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have bought into "Will the US invade Iran before 2027?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 27.5%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats Membership to view full prediction market news content. Unlock complete account profiles, anomalous position allocation, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content to stay one step ahead of global news.
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---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have bought into "Will the US invade Iran before 2027?", with the current probability of "Yes" at 27.5%.
Account 1's best-related sector for this market is Geopolitics, with a net profit of $17.0k in this sector. Its win rate across 129 settled trades in this sector is 111/129 (86%), including 6 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95.
Account 2's best-related sector for this market is Iran, with a net profit of $5.8k in this sector. Its win rate across 34 settled trades in this sector is 29/34 (85%), including 3 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95.
Account 3's best-related sector for this market is Israel, with a net profit of $115k in this sector. Its win rate across 140 settled trades in this sector is 113/140 (81%), including 21 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. This investment is 66.1 times the median historical investment amount within its similar cost price range.
Subscribe to BlockBeats Membership to view full prediction market news content. Unlock complete account profiles, anomalous position allocation, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content to stay one step ahead of global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats Membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment.
---------------------------------
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Cash flow turns negative for the first time in over two years, Tesla's probability of beating earnings expectations remains 75%
Tesla will report its Q2 earnings after the market close on July 22. On the prediction market Polymarket, the new event “Will Tesla (TSLA) beat earnings expectations in its quarterly report?” has a “Yes” probability of 75%. The event only considers whether the company’s first official earnings release reports a non‑GAAP earnings per share strictly above $0.50; if the figure is exactly $0.50, it is settled as “No”. Revenue, free cash flow, capital expenditures, and post‑earnings stock price reaction do not affect the outcome.
On the 21st, LSEG data indicated that Tesla’s Q2 free cash flow is expected to be negative $3.3 billion, potentially marking the first quarterly cash outflow in more than two years. The aggregated sell‑side forecasts also show that capital expenditures for the quarter are expected to be close to $6.7 billion, reaching about $25.3 billion for the year, mainly for AI infrastructure, Robotaxi, Cybercab, and Optimus. Visible Alpha projects that Tesla’s automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, will fall from 19.2% in Q1 to 18.1%; Deutsche Bank believes that low‑interest financing options and the adjustment to FSD sales models could also suppress profits.
Tesla’s consensus released on July 17 shows that 21 sell‑side firms predict an average and median non‑GAAP earnings per share of $0.55, 5 cents above the market threshold. Tesla also delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, setting a quarterly record. Reuters, citing Barclays analysts, said the automotive business rebound could provide funding for AI investment.
---------------------------------
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Tesla will report its Q2 earnings after the market close on July 22. On the prediction market Polymarket, the new event “Will Tesla (TSLA) beat earnings expectations in its quarterly report?” has a “Yes” probability of 75%. The event only considers whether the company’s first official earnings release reports a non‑GAAP earnings per share strictly above $0.50; if the figure is exactly $0.50, it is settled as “No”. Revenue, free cash flow, capital expenditures, and post‑earnings stock price reaction do not affect the outcome.
On the 21st, LSEG data indicated that Tesla’s Q2 free cash flow is expected to be negative $3.3 billion, potentially marking the first quarterly cash outflow in more than two years. The aggregated sell‑side forecasts also show that capital expenditures for the quarter are expected to be close to $6.7 billion, reaching about $25.3 billion for the year, mainly for AI infrastructure, Robotaxi, Cybercab, and Optimus. Visible Alpha projects that Tesla’s automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, will fall from 19.2% in Q1 to 18.1%; Deutsche Bank believes that low‑interest financing options and the adjustment to FSD sales models could also suppress profits.
Tesla’s consensus released on July 17 shows that 21 sell‑side firms predict an average and median non‑GAAP earnings per share of $0.55, 5 cents above the market threshold. Tesla also delivered 480,126 vehicles in Q2, setting a quarterly record. Reuters, citing Barclays analysts, said the automotive business rebound could provide funding for AI investment.
---------------------------------
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Unexpected exposure of a stronger pre‑release model, OpenAI’s smart money predicts GPT‑6 will launch before October
In the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money invested $1.7k “Yes” on “Will GPT‑6 be released by September 30, 2026?”. The average buy probability is 58.8%, and the current “Yes” probability is 74.5%.
On the 21st, OpenAI first confirmed in a Hugging Face security incident statement that, in addition to GPT‑5.6 Sol, the company is also testing a “more powerful pre‑release model.” However, OpenAI has not disclosed the model’s name, architecture, or release date. The event rules require GPT‑6 to be publicly available before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on September 30, with closed testing not counted, and minor versions such as GPT‑5.7 cannot directly satisfy settlement.
The latest exposed pre‑release model demonstrates that the subsequent system has indeed entered testing. Reuters also noted that GPT‑5.6 was delayed due to U.S. government security reviews; this time, the model’s breach of the isolated environment prompted lawmakers to demand stronger independent testing. Yet OpenAI has been accelerating its model iteration pace in recent years, with the rapid upgrade from GPT‑5.5 to GPT‑5.6 setting a precedent for faster launch of new generations.
Note: Based on its past trade profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; instead, it exhibits behavior of taking profit or loss at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
In the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money invested $1.7k “Yes” on “Will GPT‑6 be released by September 30, 2026?”. The average buy probability is 58.8%, and the current “Yes” probability is 74.5%.
0x73653992 invested $1.7k, with the best related sector being OpenAI. The sector’s net profit is $11.5k. In that sector, 228 settled trades have a win rate of 139/228 (61%), of which 41 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.501–$0.65), the median invested amount is $216.
On the 21st, OpenAI first confirmed in a Hugging Face security incident statement that, in addition to GPT‑5.6 Sol, the company is also testing a “more powerful pre‑release model.” However, OpenAI has not disclosed the model’s name, architecture, or release date. The event rules require GPT‑6 to be publicly available before 11:59 PM Eastern Time on September 30, with closed testing not counted, and minor versions such as GPT‑5.7 cannot directly satisfy settlement.
The latest exposed pre‑release model demonstrates that the subsequent system has indeed entered testing. Reuters also noted that GPT‑5.6 was delayed due to U.S. government security reviews; this time, the model’s breach of the isolated environment prompted lawmakers to demand stronger independent testing. Yet OpenAI has been accelerating its model iteration pace in recent years, with the rapid upgrade from GPT‑5.5 to GPT‑5.6 setting a precedent for faster launch of new generations.
Note: Based on its past trade profile, this trader is not betting on whether the event actually occurs; instead, it exhibits behavior of taking profit or loss at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x736539924a5602b37a03a54fc12c1cc8f98964da
Total investment: $1.7k
---------------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Two major oil shipping lanes are simultaneously in distress, geopolitical smart money predicts whether oil prices will reach a new high
On the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money investor bought into “Will crude oil reach a new all‑time high before December 31?”, and the current probability of “yes” is 16.0%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock comprehensive account profiles, anomalous allocation operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
If you wish to subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be automatically sent after successful payment
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money investor bought into “Will crude oil reach a new all‑time high before December 31?”, and the current probability of “yes” is 16.0%.
Account 1 is most closely correlated with the Geopolitics sector in this market, with a net profit of $17.9k. In that sector, out of 39 settled trades, the win rate is 33/39 (85%), with 4 trades having a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news content, unlock comprehensive account profiles, anomalous allocation operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
If you wish to subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be automatically sent after successful payment
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PolyBeats is ordered by leadership to make improvements, and the editor is forced to open a prediction market
In the Telegram channel PolyBeats, the self-developed prediction market launched 2 days ago, titled 「What content direction does PolyBeats currently need to improve the most?」, currently the probability that the statement "too few images" is true is less than 100%.
According to a colleague, PolyBeats' data performance fell below leadership expectations, and it has now been listed as a key department under close watch, or faces the risk of cost
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In the Telegram channel PolyBeats, the self-developed prediction market launched 2 days ago, titled 「What content direction does PolyBeats currently need to improve the most?」, currently the probability that the statement "too few images" is true is less than 100%.
According to a colleague, PolyBeats' data performance fell below leadership expectations, and it has now been listed as a key department under close watch, or faces the risk of cost
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN