SCOTUS May Rule Trump's Tariff Policy Unlawful
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account deposited $10,000 within hours and went "all-in" on "No" in the market "Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump tariffs?" The current probability for this outcome sits at 24%.
In 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that specific tariffs implemented by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded his authority. The government subsequently appealed to the Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court has designated this Friday as an opinion issuance day. Given the expedited nature of the case, there is speculation that the ruling will be released then. A final judgment declaring the tariff policy unlawful could trigger massive tariff refunds, potentially leading to a broad market downturn.
Account: 0x1e0a4f0786c802489d354df0de309d2d3eeaadc5
Position: $10k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account deposited $10,000 within hours and went "all-in" on "No" in the market "Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump tariffs?" The current probability for this outcome sits at 24%.
In 2025, the U.S. Court of Appeals for the Federal Circuit ruled that specific tariffs implemented by Trump under the International Emergency Economic Powers Act (IEEPA) exceeded his authority. The government subsequently appealed to the Supreme Court.
The Supreme Court has designated this Friday as an opinion issuance day. Given the expedited nature of the case, there is speculation that the ruling will be released then. A final judgment declaring the tariff policy unlawful could trigger massive tariff refunds, potentially leading to a broad market downturn.
Account: 0x1e0a4f0786c802489d354df0de309d2d3eeaadc5
Position: $10k
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Tesla "Unsupervised FSD" May Miss Mid-2026 Launch; Suspicious New Wallet Bets NO
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious new address placed a bet one hour ago that Tesla will not launch "Unsupervised FSD" before June 30, 2026. The probability of a mid-year launch has dropped 15% in the last 12 hours and now stands at 49%.
At CES 2026, multiple automakers and autonomous driving companies unleashed a wave of L4 and supervised solutions, highlighting accelerating competition. With FSD yet to receive regulatory approval for "unsupervised" operation—and given a history of repeated delays—confidence in an imminent launch has been dampened.
Account: 0xab596a4f2aaf7169aafdd7c0d29adcfe53708db3
Position: $2.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious new address placed a bet one hour ago that Tesla will not launch "Unsupervised FSD" before June 30, 2026. The probability of a mid-year launch has dropped 15% in the last 12 hours and now stands at 49%.
At CES 2026, multiple automakers and autonomous driving companies unleashed a wave of L4 and supervised solutions, highlighting accelerating competition. With FSD yet to receive regulatory approval for "unsupervised" operation—and given a history of repeated delays—confidence in an imminent launch has been dampened.
Account: 0xab596a4f2aaf7169aafdd7c0d29adcfe53708db3
Position: $2.6k
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Multiple New Accounts Bet Ranger ICO Will Oversubscribe
On the prediction market Polymarket, three suspicious new accounts have wagered $44k in the past 24 hours that the total subscription for the Ranger public sale on MetaDAO will exceed $40M, $60M, and $80M. Currently, the probabilities for these three options are 81%, 64%, and 50% respectively—marking varying increases since yesterday's report.
The ICO round began on January 6, 2026, and will run until January 10. The minimum fundraising goal is $6 million, offering 10 million RNGR tokens, which represents approximately 39% of the total token supply.
It is worth noting that in such fundraising volume markets, there is precedent for whales or project teams front-running "Yes" bets before depositing large sums of capital. Holders of "No" positions should be aware of the associated risks.
Accounts:
0x13195fb71a894748255205605aeaeb157113d7db
0x87ef2f040420aa8ea1ef1ce7593ae59e8c066c47
0xbbec7b4ffb7c41fac84ed587835c578d3b59dcbd
Total Position: $44.4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, three suspicious new accounts have wagered $44k in the past 24 hours that the total subscription for the Ranger public sale on MetaDAO will exceed $40M, $60M, and $80M. Currently, the probabilities for these three options are 81%, 64%, and 50% respectively—marking varying increases since yesterday's report.
The ICO round began on January 6, 2026, and will run until January 10. The minimum fundraising goal is $6 million, offering 10 million RNGR tokens, which represents approximately 39% of the total token supply.
It is worth noting that in such fundraising volume markets, there is precedent for whales or project teams front-running "Yes" bets before depositing large sums of capital. Holders of "No" positions should be aware of the associated risks.
Accounts:
0x13195fb71a894748255205605aeaeb157113d7db
0x87ef2f040420aa8ea1ef1ce7593ae59e8c066c47
0xbbec7b4ffb7c41fac84ed587835c578d3b59dcbd
Total Position: $44.4k
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5 of Top 6 Holders in Israel-Iran Conflict Market Are New Accounts
On the prediction market Polymarket, five new accounts have placed bets within the last 24 hours that an Israel-Iran conflict will occur this month. These accounts currently hold five of the top six positions in the market, with three of them showing no prior on-chain activity. The probability for this outcome currently stands at 31%.
Amidst escalating domestic protests, the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Army has warned of preemptive measures against "threatening rhetoric" from the U.S. and Israel. This follows yesterday's announcement of the execution of a man accused of spying for Mossad and receiving payments in cryptocurrency.
Concurrently, Russia has begun evacuating families of diplomatic personnel from both Israel and Iran, with three flights completed in the past 24 hours. Australia has also urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately.
Accounts: 0xb049216dc1fb94e32ecb6ca628065830c05d7489 0xad26ed572b684589dda70cc5a2c7aed665657310 0x7decf1dca8debb35c52ad23e144f1479e918c06a 0x48e1ac59693bde26d01c7c89d9f680edf90510cf 0xe0d17c4991be60b4c6cef6ad302a0f3d7552e44f
Total Position: $35.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, five new accounts have placed bets within the last 24 hours that an Israel-Iran conflict will occur this month. These accounts currently hold five of the top six positions in the market, with three of them showing no prior on-chain activity. The probability for this outcome currently stands at 31%.
Amidst escalating domestic protests, the Commander-in-Chief of the Iranian Army has warned of preemptive measures against "threatening rhetoric" from the U.S. and Israel. This follows yesterday's announcement of the execution of a man accused of spying for Mossad and receiving payments in cryptocurrency.
Concurrently, Russia has begun evacuating families of diplomatic personnel from both Israel and Iran, with three flights completed in the past 24 hours. Australia has also urged its citizens to leave Iran immediately.
Accounts: 0xb049216dc1fb94e32ecb6ca628065830c05d7489 0xad26ed572b684589dda70cc5a2c7aed665657310 0x7decf1dca8debb35c52ad23e144f1479e918c06a 0x48e1ac59693bde26d01c7c89d9f680edf90510cf 0xe0d17c4991be60b4c6cef6ad302a0f3d7552e44f
Total Position: $35.8k
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❤2
Suspicious New Address Bets $10k on US Strike Against Iran by End of January
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious new address wagered $9.9k in the past 12 hours that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The probability for this outcome sits at 16%, while the odds of a strike before March 31 have risen 7% to 33%, and the odds for before June 30 now stand at 39%.
Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated significantly over the past week, with Trump stating that the US is "standing by." Social media reports also suggest US military deployments are moving toward the Middle East.
Account: 0x3b0b209443465d662eb6f70cddbbc3169c042a9d
Position: $9.9k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious new address wagered $9.9k in the past 12 hours that the US will strike Iran before January 31. The probability for this outcome sits at 16%, while the odds of a strike before March 31 have risen 7% to 33%, and the odds for before June 30 now stand at 39%.
Tensions between the US and Iran have escalated significantly over the past week, with Trump stating that the US is "standing by." Social media reports also suggest US military deployments are moving toward the Middle East.
Account: 0x3b0b209443465d662eb6f70cddbbc3169c042a9d
Position: $9.9k
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NFP Data Tomorrow: Federal Job Cuts >200k Hits 100% Probability
US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is set for release tomorrow (January 9, 2026). Often viewed as a critical barometer for economic health, this print could sway Fed interest rate decisions, US equity trends, and the dollar exchange rate.
Currently, the probability that 2025 federal job cuts will exceed 200k stands at 100%, effectively locking in the outcome before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases December figures. Official data shows a reduction of 271k federal jobs between January and November 2025, with the market betting firmly against a recovery exceeding 71k in December.
Conversely, the "December 2025 Unemployment Rate" market remains divided: 4.5% is trading at 38%, 4.6% at 26%, and ≤4.4% at 22%. Given recent volatility—4.4% in September, 4.6% in November, and missing October data due to the government shutdown—market expectations regarding economic cooling versus labor recovery remain split.
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US Non-Farm Payrolls (NFP) data is set for release tomorrow (January 9, 2026). Often viewed as a critical barometer for economic health, this print could sway Fed interest rate decisions, US equity trends, and the dollar exchange rate.
Currently, the probability that 2025 federal job cuts will exceed 200k stands at 100%, effectively locking in the outcome before the Bureau of Labor Statistics releases December figures. Official data shows a reduction of 271k federal jobs between January and November 2025, with the market betting firmly against a recovery exceeding 71k in December.
Conversely, the "December 2025 Unemployment Rate" market remains divided: 4.5% is trading at 38%, 4.6% at 26%, and ≤4.4% at 22%. Given recent volatility—4.4% in September, 4.6% in November, and missing October data due to the government shutdown—market expectations regarding economic cooling versus labor recovery remain split.
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Multiple Suspicious Accounts Bet Gemini 3 Will Set Record on AI Math Benchmark
On the prediction market Polymarket, three suspicious accounts have placed bets that Gemini 3 will score above 50% on FrontierMath. The market probability currently stands at 37%.
FrontierMath is an AI model evaluation benchmark where GPT-5.2 currently holds the top score (40.3%), with Gemini 3 Pro Preview trailing at 37.6%. Due to the extreme difficulty of the benchmark and the tedious testing process, the prevailing market sentiment is that this milestone will not be reached before the market closes on January 31, 2026.
Notably, the probability sat at just 7% two days ago. A key driver for the surge is the wide circulation of positions held by the suspicious account "beepboopzyx." Their history consists of only 10 trades—all Google-related—resulting in nearly $40,000 in total profit, with two trades exceeding 10x returns.
Accounts (first is beepboopzyx): 0x59d59ae47618f3b340482d175dfc8cf13b2ba273 0x8c0eee609bea22ed5558c897f6f618e56c3c0c15 0x1bede7f78ec054d6a6e533e4c54641adbf316afa
Total Position: $5.2k
----------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, three suspicious accounts have placed bets that Gemini 3 will score above 50% on FrontierMath. The market probability currently stands at 37%.
FrontierMath is an AI model evaluation benchmark where GPT-5.2 currently holds the top score (40.3%), with Gemini 3 Pro Preview trailing at 37.6%. Due to the extreme difficulty of the benchmark and the tedious testing process, the prevailing market sentiment is that this milestone will not be reached before the market closes on January 31, 2026.
Notably, the probability sat at just 7% two days ago. A key driver for the surge is the wide circulation of positions held by the suspicious account "beepboopzyx." Their history consists of only 10 trades—all Google-related—resulting in nearly $40,000 in total profit, with two trades exceeding 10x returns.
Accounts (first is beepboopzyx): 0x59d59ae47618f3b340482d175dfc8cf13b2ba273 0x8c0eee609bea22ed5558c897f6f618e56c3c0c15 0x1bede7f78ec054d6a6e533e4c54641adbf316afa
Total Position: $5.2k
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5-Year Active Wallet Funds New Bet: DOGE-1 Mission to Launch This Year
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account executed market buy orders one hour ago betting that the DOGE-1 moon mission will launch this year, causing the probability to spike instantly from 13% to 33%. On-chain analysis reveals the account was funded by "zezima.eth," a wallet active for nearly five years with historical peak on-chain assets exceeding $2 million.
DOGE-1 is the first satellite mission fully funded by Dogecoin, announced by Elon Musk in 2021. According to the market rules, the bet resolves to "Yes" as long as the satellite successfully lifts off from the launchpad by December 31, 2026.
Account: 0x4cf1dadec438189822d20105098f222ce786ee98
Position: $2.7k
---------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account executed market buy orders one hour ago betting that the DOGE-1 moon mission will launch this year, causing the probability to spike instantly from 13% to 33%. On-chain analysis reveals the account was funded by "zezima.eth," a wallet active for nearly five years with historical peak on-chain assets exceeding $2 million.
DOGE-1 is the first satellite mission fully funded by Dogecoin, announced by Elon Musk in 2021. According to the market rules, the bet resolves to "Yes" as long as the satellite successfully lifts off from the launchpad by December 31, 2026.
Account: 0x4cf1dadec438189822d20105098f222ce786ee98
Position: $2.7k
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Probability of Venezuela Supplying Oil to US by Jan 31 Hits 73%
Over the past 24 hours, the "Yes" side of the market "Will Venezuela supply oil to the US by Jan 31?" has surged from a low of 46% to 74%.
Yesterday, Reuters reported that the U.S. and Venezuelan interim authorities reached an agreement to transfer approximately 30 to 50 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. in the near future—a volume estimated to be worth billions of dollars.
The Trump administration has confirmed that market sales for the crude have commenced, with proceeds to be managed within the U.S. banking system. Simultaneously, discussions are underway with major U.S. oil companies to support crude production and exports.
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Over the past 24 hours, the "Yes" side of the market "Will Venezuela supply oil to the US by Jan 31?" has surged from a low of 46% to 74%.
Yesterday, Reuters reported that the U.S. and Venezuelan interim authorities reached an agreement to transfer approximately 30 to 50 million barrels of crude oil to the U.S. in the near future—a volume estimated to be worth billions of dollars.
The Trump administration has confirmed that market sales for the crude have commenced, with proceeds to be managed within the U.S. banking system. Simultaneously, discussions are underway with major U.S. oil companies to support crude production and exports.
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Two New Accounts Bet on Trump Acquiring Greenland by 2027
On the prediction market Polymarket, two new accounts have placed bets within the last 15 hours that Trump will acquire Greenland before 2027. Notably, one of the new accounts goes by the nickname "AmericanImperialism."
Currently, the probabilities for both the "Acquire Part of Greenland" and "Acquire Greenland" markets hover around 15%.
Recent news reveals that U.S. officials are discussing issuing one-time payments to Greenlanders—ranging from $10,000 to $100,000 per person—to persuade them to separate from Denmark and join the U.S. Greenlandic officials and lawmakers continue to firmly reject the idea, declaring that "Greenland is not for sale" and expressing concern over threats from the U.S.
Accounts: 0xb5f2551214d3fea100dbd21b1cc70e3b9af59432 0xf01f35edd8d416297d6efda6800da0477835e3a3
Total Position: $16.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, two new accounts have placed bets within the last 15 hours that Trump will acquire Greenland before 2027. Notably, one of the new accounts goes by the nickname "AmericanImperialism."
Currently, the probabilities for both the "Acquire Part of Greenland" and "Acquire Greenland" markets hover around 15%.
Recent news reveals that U.S. officials are discussing issuing one-time payments to Greenlanders—ranging from $10,000 to $100,000 per person—to persuade them to separate from Denmark and join the U.S. Greenlandic officials and lawmakers continue to firmly reject the idea, declaring that "Greenland is not for sale" and expressing concern over threats from the U.S.
Accounts: 0xb5f2551214d3fea100dbd21b1cc70e3b9af59432 0xf01f35edd8d416297d6efda6800da0477835e3a3
Total Position: $16.6k
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Suspicious New Accounts Bet $23k on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by End of January
On the prediction market Polymarket, two suspicious new addresses have wagered $23k that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire before the end of January. The current "Yes" probability for this market sits at just 4%.
Over the past week, new developments have emerged regarding a potential ceasefire by January 31, 2026. For the first time, the U.S. explicitly supported a European-led security guarantee plan for Ukraine, making commitments at the Paris summit to provide assurances to Kyiv in the event of a ceasefire. Despite these diplomatic signals, key issues—including territorial disputes and the status of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—remained unresolved.
Accounts: 0xfcab5f23db3c53b7df0939deb7ce99adeb56e010 0x4d4cd7f3bef94103d712836976d9e09d623e324d
Total Position: $23k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, two suspicious new addresses have wagered $23k that Russia and Ukraine will reach a ceasefire before the end of January. The current "Yes" probability for this market sits at just 4%.
Over the past week, new developments have emerged regarding a potential ceasefire by January 31, 2026. For the first time, the U.S. explicitly supported a European-led security guarantee plan for Ukraine, making commitments at the Paris summit to provide assurances to Kyiv in the event of a ceasefire. Despite these diplomatic signals, key issues—including territorial disputes and the status of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant—remained unresolved.
Accounts: 0xfcab5f23db3c53b7df0939deb7ce99adeb56e010 0x4d4cd7f3bef94103d712836976d9e09d623e324d
Total Position: $23k
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Suspicious New Account Bets on MrBeast's New Show; Volume Far Exceeds Market Norms
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account deposited funds half an hour ago and wagered that contestant #152 will not win Season 2 of Beast Games. Consequently, the implied probability of the contestant winning plummeted from 64% to 36%. Prior to this bet, trading volume for all options in this market was less than $500.
Beast Games is a reality competition series hosted by MrBeast, featuring contestants facing extreme challenges for a massive cash prize. Season 2, themed "Strong vs. Smart," sees 200 competitors fighting for $5 million.
The season premiered on January 7, 2026, and consists of 10 episodes. The first three were released as a batch, with new episodes airing weekly on Wednesdays until the finale on February 25.
Account: 0xd44fcb370c3af706ba76b170cea624db6af21f1a
Total Position: $5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account deposited funds half an hour ago and wagered that contestant #152 will not win Season 2 of Beast Games. Consequently, the implied probability of the contestant winning plummeted from 64% to 36%. Prior to this bet, trading volume for all options in this market was less than $500.
Beast Games is a reality competition series hosted by MrBeast, featuring contestants facing extreme challenges for a massive cash prize. Season 2, themed "Strong vs. Smart," sees 200 competitors fighting for $5 million.
The season premiered on January 7, 2026, and consists of 10 episodes. The first three were released as a batch, with new episodes airing weekly on Wednesdays until the finale on February 25.
Account: 0xd44fcb370c3af706ba76b170cea624db6af21f1a
Total Position: $5k
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Suspicious Account Bets on Hassett for Fed Chair After 11x Return on Maduro Ouster
On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account began wagering a week ago that Trump will nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Hassett's odds of selection currently stand at 37%.
After suffering a loss betting on Maduro's ouster on New Year's Eve, the account placed a fresh bet—just one day before Trump's operation to capture Maduro—that the leader would be removed this month. Following Maduro's extradition to the U.S., this trade yielded an 11x return.
In an interview following the night raid in Venezuela, Trump stated that the operation was originally scheduled for late 2025 but was delayed due to weather. Had weather not interfered, the account's New Year's Eve wager would have realized a profit exceeding 140x.
Trump previously stated he would announce his nominee for Fed Chair this month. In an interview with The New York Times yesterday, he revealed he has made his decision—though he has not disclosed the name—noting that Hassett is one of his preferred candidates.
Account: 0xf70ff98d103ef06a8d9f05938f47ea1989c044dd Total Position: $5k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a suspicious account began wagering a week ago that Trump will nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Federal Reserve Chairman. Hassett's odds of selection currently stand at 37%.
After suffering a loss betting on Maduro's ouster on New Year's Eve, the account placed a fresh bet—just one day before Trump's operation to capture Maduro—that the leader would be removed this month. Following Maduro's extradition to the U.S., this trade yielded an 11x return.
In an interview following the night raid in Venezuela, Trump stated that the operation was originally scheduled for late 2025 but was delayed due to weather. Had weather not interfered, the account's New Year's Eve wager would have realized a profit exceeding 140x.
Trump previously stated he would announce his nominee for Fed Chair this month. In an interview with The New York Times yesterday, he revealed he has made his decision—though he has not disclosed the name—noting that Hassett is one of his preferred candidates.
Account: 0xf70ff98d103ef06a8d9f05938f47ea1989c044dd Total Position: $5k
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New Account Bets Israel Strikes Lebanon Today; Top Trader Capitulates
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has been continuously placing market orders over the past 14 hours, betting that Israel will strike Lebanon on January 9. The probability surged from 31% at entry to a high of 78% and currently sits at 64%.
Opposing this move was a high-conviction "No" bettor (Account: 0x9eb1f9602242b2218f55275fbab16e7eb239fc21) active since last November. With 20 historical positions focused solely on strike dates, they boasted an 85% win rate and over $10,000 in profit.
However, following the new account's aggressive entry, this veteran trader has spent the last 10 hours selling off their "No" positions at a loss, realizing a deficit exceeding $6,000.
Israel has launched multiple airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas targets in recent days, with Polymarket markets from January 2 to January 8 all settling as "Yes."
Account: 0x1998e5baac96c7443c9f53da52619d395c9216ef
Total Position: $4k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has been continuously placing market orders over the past 14 hours, betting that Israel will strike Lebanon on January 9. The probability surged from 31% at entry to a high of 78% and currently sits at 64%.
Opposing this move was a high-conviction "No" bettor (Account: 0x9eb1f9602242b2218f55275fbab16e7eb239fc21) active since last November. With 20 historical positions focused solely on strike dates, they boasted an 85% win rate and over $10,000 in profit.
However, following the new account's aggressive entry, this veteran trader has spent the last 10 hours selling off their "No" positions at a loss, realizing a deficit exceeding $6,000.
Israel has launched multiple airstrikes against Hezbollah and Hamas targets in recent days, with Polymarket markets from January 2 to January 8 all settling as "Yes."
Account: 0x1998e5baac96c7443c9f53da52619d395c9216ef
Total Position: $4k
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Three New Accounts Bet Nearly $30k on Khamenei's Ouster This Month
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new accounts have placed bets over the past day that Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei will cease to be in power this month. Notably, three of these new accounts have accumulated positions large enough to make them the top three holders of "Yes" shares. The market probability has risen from 12% just 12 hours ago to 18% currently.
A key driver behind this surge is Trump's recent interview remark that "Khamenei is planning to flee," alongside his reiteration that the U.S. will take action if the Iranian regime violently suppresses protesters.
Top 3 Accounts: 0x4128be7113dbca57dd75e7cd2cd508dd9feddc3c 0xc57fc933d39aa1c7607606512393ce407b268423 0x1f7eac1d28137fcaa7dbb80ad41bc95c371d5675
Total Position: $29.3k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new accounts have placed bets over the past day that Iranian leader Ayatollah Khamenei will cease to be in power this month. Notably, three of these new accounts have accumulated positions large enough to make them the top three holders of "Yes" shares. The market probability has risen from 12% just 12 hours ago to 18% currently.
A key driver behind this surge is Trump's recent interview remark that "Khamenei is planning to flee," alongside his reiteration that the U.S. will take action if the Iranian regime violently suppresses protesters.
Top 3 Accounts: 0x4128be7113dbca57dd75e7cd2cd508dd9feddc3c 0xc57fc933d39aa1c7607606512393ce407b268423 0x1f7eac1d28137fcaa7dbb80ad41bc95c371d5675
Total Position: $29.3k
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PolyBeats（EN）
New Account Bets Israel Strikes Lebanon Today; Top Trader Capitulates On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account has been continuously placing market orders over the past 14 hours, betting that Israel will strike Lebanon on January 9. The probability…
UPDATE: Israel Suspected Strike on Lebanon; Suspicious Account Up 175%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the "Israel strikes Lebanon on Jan 9" market surged to 99% following our report four hours ago. The suspicious account mentioned previously now sits on a paper profit of nearly $7,000.
Half an hour ago, IDF Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted on X stating that the IDF is currently attacking Hezbollah terror targets in multiple areas of southern Lebanon. As of now, no mainstream media has reported on the strike.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the "Israel strikes Lebanon on Jan 9" market surged to 99% following our report four hours ago. The suspicious account mentioned previously now sits on a paper profit of nearly $7,000.
Half an hour ago, IDF Arabic spokesperson Avichay Adraee posted on X stating that the IDF is currently attacking Hezbollah terror targets in multiple areas of southern Lebanon. As of now, no mainstream media has reported on the strike.
------------------------
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Suspected Insider Uses Tornado Cash to Bet on US Strike Against Colombia
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account funded via the privacy protocol Tornado Cash deposited $12,000 one hour ago and executed market buys betting that the US will strike Colombia before April. This activity caused the probability to briefly spike from 7% to 42%; it currently settles at 9%.
Tornado Cash is an Ethereum-based mixing protocol used to anonymize cryptocurrency transactions. While used for privacy, it is often associated with illicit activities and has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury.
Following the U.S. raid on Venezuela, Trump criticized Colombian President Petro, stating he "loves making cocaine to sell to the U.S.," and responded "sounds good" to questions regarding potential military action. However, on January 8—following a phone call with Petro—Trump posted that the two would meet at the White House, describing the call as a "great honor," a complete reversal from his previous hostility.
Fund Trail: Mixer -> New Address 1 -> New Address 2 -> Polymarket
Account: 0x1693866a4bca598e29d5391cc55d5454f53ca6ad
Total Position: $4.2k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account funded via the privacy protocol Tornado Cash deposited $12,000 one hour ago and executed market buys betting that the US will strike Colombia before April. This activity caused the probability to briefly spike from 7% to 42%; it currently settles at 9%.
Tornado Cash is an Ethereum-based mixing protocol used to anonymize cryptocurrency transactions. While used for privacy, it is often associated with illicit activities and has been sanctioned by the U.S. Treasury.
Following the U.S. raid on Venezuela, Trump criticized Colombian President Petro, stating he "loves making cocaine to sell to the U.S.," and responded "sounds good" to questions regarding potential military action. However, on January 8—following a phone call with Petro—Trump posted that the two would meet at the White House, describing the call as a "great honor," a complete reversal from his previous hostility.
Fund Trail: Mixer -> New Address 1 -> New Address 2 -> Polymarket
Account: 0x1693866a4bca598e29d5391cc55d5454f53ca6ad
Total Position: $4.2k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Multiple New Addresses Bet $123k on Khamenei Ouster by Jan 31
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new addresses have placed bets that Ayatollah Khamenei will cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before the end of January. The probability for this specific outcome has risen 13% and currently stands at 22%.
Massive anti-government protests have erupted across Iran, posing the most severe internal challenge to the theocratic regime in recent years. The Supreme Leader has refused to make concessions, labeling protesters as agents of foreign powers and signaling a hardline crackdown. Meanwhile, authorities have implemented an internet blackout as the situation escalates further.
Accounts: 0x276b5e1b8bdab89c7ac6f53096a2fd374134e8b8 0xf95846967c9093e4881506162077ec8f7049db13 0x6d067111d46203099d548019e376f940706694c6 0x2e29fc8a478a458d63028c88f3bc1e89bfa66572 0xc57fc933d39aa1c7607606512393ce407b268423 0xbe482cd6e5183be8767f03b48ebc3ff35769683f 0x0e0a24f20fdee0594ebb359c20b9873ab4f3578f 0x8944ed4cdfe92111907e796bbb9920368537c3fd
Total Position: $123.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, multiple new addresses have placed bets that Ayatollah Khamenei will cease to be the Supreme Leader of Iran before the end of January. The probability for this specific outcome has risen 13% and currently stands at 22%.
Massive anti-government protests have erupted across Iran, posing the most severe internal challenge to the theocratic regime in recent years. The Supreme Leader has refused to make concessions, labeling protesters as agents of foreign powers and signaling a hardline crackdown. Meanwhile, authorities have implemented an internet blackout as the situation escalates further.
Accounts: 0x276b5e1b8bdab89c7ac6f53096a2fd374134e8b8 0xf95846967c9093e4881506162077ec8f7049db13 0x6d067111d46203099d548019e376f940706694c6 0x2e29fc8a478a458d63028c88f3bc1e89bfa66572 0xc57fc933d39aa1c7607606512393ce407b268423 0xbe482cd6e5183be8767f03b48ebc3ff35769683f 0x0e0a24f20fdee0594ebb359c20b9873ab4f3578f 0x8944ed4cdfe92111907e796bbb9920368537c3fd
Total Position: $123.5k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Trump Reaffirms Importance of Greenland; Multiple New Addresses Bet on US Acquisition
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new accounts have placed bets over the last 3 days that the US will acquire part or all of Greenland. Currently, the probability for a full acquisition stands at 17%, with partial acquisition at 23%. Among these four, account 0x0cf2 holds additional positions betting that "Trump will not visit Greenland before April" and that the "US will invade Greenland this year."
In the "US Acquires All of Greenland This Year" market, three accounts with no other trading history hold 15% of the total "Yes" shares: 0xb5f2551214d3fea100dbd21b1cc70e3b9af59432 0x75ad66469cc4fde680829c9d8e943242bd4cf6b9 0xceecb2ecc91e32ebcc6bdee532e3d90055a34ad9
On January 9, Trump stated that "ownership, not leasing, is required to ensure defense." The Danish government has formally urged EU member states to deploy troops to the island to serve as a deterrent against potential U.S. military action.
Four New Accounts: 0x13a000e6e8fe81f2dfd6f1f5ecd32bbd1deb100d 0x0f6399f3d5f152a7679d148c765363d896c1b385 0x0cf2310a5895488db7d00aef07a2cca7bbe2bd92 0xd74e6cacaf565cb0732c48f44a0020defd8ede26
Total Position: $116.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new accounts have placed bets over the last 3 days that the US will acquire part or all of Greenland. Currently, the probability for a full acquisition stands at 17%, with partial acquisition at 23%. Among these four, account 0x0cf2 holds additional positions betting that "Trump will not visit Greenland before April" and that the "US will invade Greenland this year."
In the "US Acquires All of Greenland This Year" market, three accounts with no other trading history hold 15% of the total "Yes" shares: 0xb5f2551214d3fea100dbd21b1cc70e3b9af59432 0x75ad66469cc4fde680829c9d8e943242bd4cf6b9 0xceecb2ecc91e32ebcc6bdee532e3d90055a34ad9
On January 9, Trump stated that "ownership, not leasing, is required to ensure defense." The Danish government has formally urged EU member states to deploy troops to the island to serve as a deterrent against potential U.S. military action.
Four New Accounts: 0x13a000e6e8fe81f2dfd6f1f5ecd32bbd1deb100d 0x0f6399f3d5f152a7679d148c765363d896c1b385 0x0cf2310a5895488db7d00aef07a2cca7bbe2bd92 0xd74e6cacaf565cb0732c48f44a0020defd8ede26
Total Position: $116.6k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
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