Russia and Ukraine dispute control of key city as military analysis shows smart money unusually investing on actual controller of the area
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor bought "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by this year?" Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by this year?, with the current "Yes" probability at 48.5%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor bought "Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by this year?" Will Russia capture all of Kostyantynivka by this year?, with the current "Yes" probability at 48.5%.
Account 1's best correlated sector in this market is Ukraine Map, with a sector net profit of $119k. It has a win rate of 310/387 (80%) across 387 settled trades in this sector, among which 61 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. This investment is 15.0x the median historical investment amount within its similar cost-price range.
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Musk's Starship aborts at T-minus one second; smart money invests on successful splashdown in next test flight
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $2.7k on "Yes" in "《Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?》", with an average buy probability of 71.3%; the current "Yes" probability is 71.5%.
SpaceX's 13th Starship test flight aborted less than a second before liftoff. Live data on the 16th showed that 4 of the 33 Raptor engines on Super Heavy failed to ignite normally, and the automated system shut down the remaining engines to prevent the rocket from launching with insufficient thrust. Since the rocket did not leave the pad, this abort does not count as an official Flight 13, and the related Polymarket market remains open.
Flight 13 plans to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites for the first time and have the upper-stage Starship complete a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean after testing engines, heat shield, and guidance systems. This launch encountered a last-second fault, but the automated abort system worked correctly; Musk said on the 16th that to improve reliability for the next flight, SpaceX will remove and replace two Raptor engines, with the most likely retry attempt early next week.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at some point after opening a position.
Account:
0x0b34b69b3acfcf19e589179e0c5894f78261f5a6
Total invested: $2.7k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $2.7k on "Yes" in "《Will the Starship for SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 achieve a successful splashdown?》", with an average buy probability of 71.3%; the current "Yes" probability is 71.5%.
0x0b34b69b invested $2.7k; the most relevant sector for this market is SpaceX, with a net sector profit of $2.3k. Across this sector, they have 39 settled trades with a win rate of 26/39 (67%), of which 8 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), their historical median investment was $26, and this investment is 102.7 times that median.
SpaceX's 13th Starship test flight aborted less than a second before liftoff. Live data on the 16th showed that 4 of the 33 Raptor engines on Super Heavy failed to ignite normally, and the automated system shut down the remaining engines to prevent the rocket from launching with insufficient thrust. Since the rocket did not leave the pad, this abort does not count as an official Flight 13, and the related Polymarket market remains open.
Flight 13 plans to deploy 20 Starlink V3 satellites for the first time and have the upper-stage Starship complete a controlled splashdown in the Indian Ocean after testing engines, heat shield, and guidance systems. This launch encountered a last-second fault, but the automated abort system worked correctly; Musk said on the 16th that to improve reliability for the next flight, SpaceX will remove and replace two Raptor engines, with the most likely retry attempt early next week.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at some point after opening a position.
Account:
0x0b34b69b3acfcf19e589179e0c5894f78261f5a6
Total invested: $2.7k
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1 smart money invests in “Will the next Claude Opus model be released before July 24, 2026?”
In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $10.8k “Yes” in “Will the next Claude Opus model be released before July 24, 2026?”, with an average buy probability of 70.7% and a current “Yes” probability of 54.5%.
Note: Based on the trader’s past trade profile, this trader is not simply investing on whether the event actually occurs; instead, they engage in take‑profit or stop‑loss actions at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x34893b25463a36d8b7dc31b16a352847925a7935
Total invested: $10.8k
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In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $10.8k “Yes” in “Will the next Claude Opus model be released before July 24, 2026?”, with an average buy probability of 70.7% and a current “Yes” probability of 54.5%.
0x34893b25 invested $10.8k, with the best correlated sector in this market being Claude, and the sector net profit is $1.5k. In that sector, the trader has 7 settled trades with a win rate of 5/7 (71%), and among them there is 1 trade where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price was above $0.95.
Note: Based on the trader’s past trade profile, this trader is not simply investing on whether the event actually occurs; instead, they engage in take‑profit or stop‑loss actions at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x34893b25463a36d8b7dc31b16a352847925a7935
Total invested: $10.8k
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1 Smart Money invests in “Will the next Claude Opus model be released before July 24, 2026?”
In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $2.1k on “Will the next Claude Opus model be released before July 24, 2026?” with “No”, an average buy probability of 27.7%, and the current “Yes” probability at 53.0%.
Note: Based on the trader’s past trade profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, but instead opens positions and then takes profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0x75a27d0cc95b3586297c1e6b5417269332cd6992
Total investment: $2.1k
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In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested $2.1k on “Will the next Claude Opus model be released before July 24, 2026?” with “No”, an average buy probability of 27.7%, and the current “Yes” probability at 53.0%.
0x75a27d0c invested $2.1k, with the best correlated sector being Anthropology, where the sector net profit is $10.2k. In that sector, the trader’s 13 settled trades have a win rate of 10/13 (77%), with 9 trades having a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.301-$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $1.0k.
Note: Based on the trader’s past trade profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, but instead opens positions and then takes profit or loss at a certain point.
Account:
0x75a27d0cc95b3586297c1e6b5417269332cd6992
Total investment: $2.1k
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James’ daughter’s alleged school transfer list exposed as fake, but smart money still bets on him joining the 76ers
On the prediction platform Polymarket, a smart investor placed a $2,000 bet on "Yes" to the question "Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2026-27 season?" 11 minutes ago. The average purchase probability was 11.0%, briefly pushing the "Yes" probability from 6.5% to 11.6%, before settling at 8.1%. The total trading volume for the "James’ next stop" event is approximately $28.65 million, with the 76ers sub-market accounting for around $1.70 million.
A few days ago, a supposed list of James’ daughter Zhuri’s transfer to Blenheim School in Pennsylvania circulated on X, which was interpreted as a potential sign of his move to the 76ers. However, the image has been debunked by the X community and several media outlets as a fake, with an unredacted version revealing a fictitious phone number starting with "555".
There is currently no publicly available technical verification to determine which tool generated the image. However, it is confirmed that neither the school nor James’ team has verified the transfer news.
The only credible clue related to Philadelphia comes from the team’s recruitment efforts. James has confirmed through his agent Rich Paul that he will leave the Lakers, but when he appeared at the Fanatics Fest in New York on July 16, he did not announce his next team. He only stated that he would consider factors such as basketball, personal life, happiness, and family, and that he would not keep the public waiting too long. ESPN reports that Terrence Ross, Joel Embiid, and Jalen Brown are all in communication with James, and the 76ers are actively pursuing his recruitment. Team owner Josh Harris also had a brief conversation with James during the event.
Note: Based on his past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, but rather opening positions and then taking profits or losses at a specific point in time.
Account:
0xbc26352dac6b2cc9274dae39f73269192caa15f9
Total investment: $2,000
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On the prediction platform Polymarket, a smart investor placed a $2,000 bet on "Yes" to the question "Will LeBron James play for the Philadelphia 76ers in the 2026-27 season?" 11 minutes ago. The average purchase probability was 11.0%, briefly pushing the "Yes" probability from 6.5% to 11.6%, before settling at 8.1%. The total trading volume for the "James’ next stop" event is approximately $28.65 million, with the 76ers sub-market accounting for around $1.70 million.
0xbc26352d invested $2,000, with the best-performing related category being Sports, which has generated a net profit of $27,500. His win rate in 18 settled transactions in this category is 3/18 (17%), with one transaction having a purchase price below $0.8 and a selling price above $0.95. In the similar cost price range ($0.051-$0.2), his historical median investment amount is $2,100.
A few days ago, a supposed list of James’ daughter Zhuri’s transfer to Blenheim School in Pennsylvania circulated on X, which was interpreted as a potential sign of his move to the 76ers. However, the image has been debunked by the X community and several media outlets as a fake, with an unredacted version revealing a fictitious phone number starting with "555".
There is currently no publicly available technical verification to determine which tool generated the image. However, it is confirmed that neither the school nor James’ team has verified the transfer news.
The only credible clue related to Philadelphia comes from the team’s recruitment efforts. James has confirmed through his agent Rich Paul that he will leave the Lakers, but when he appeared at the Fanatics Fest in New York on July 16, he did not announce his next team. He only stated that he would consider factors such as basketball, personal life, happiness, and family, and that he would not keep the public waiting too long. ESPN reports that Terrence Ross, Joel Embiid, and Jalen Brown are all in communication with James, and the 76ers are actively pursuing his recruitment. Team owner Josh Harris also had a brief conversation with James during the event.
Note: Based on his past trading behavior, this trader is not betting on whether the event will actually occur, but rather opening positions and then taking profits or losses at a specific point in time.
Account:
0xbc26352dac6b2cc9274dae39f73269192caa15f9
Total investment: $2,000
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US‑Iran ceasefire breaks down, 3 smart‑money investors predict whether the ceasefire will hold this month
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors invested in the proposition “Will the Israel‑Iran ceasefire continue until July 31?", and the probability of “Yes” is currently 60.5%.
Subscribing to BlockBeats membership allows you to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock comprehensive account profiles, abnormal split operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and upon successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart‑money investors invested in the proposition “Will the Israel‑Iran ceasefire continue until July 31?", and the probability of “Yes” is currently 60.5%.
Account 1 is most correlated with the Iran sector in this market, with a net profit of $354k. In that sector, it has 312 settled trades with a win rate of 135/312 (43%), of which 64 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.
Account 2 is most correlated with the Geopolitics sector, with a net profit of $36.0k. In that sector, it has 277 settled trades with a win rate of 182/277 (66%), of which 48 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. The investment in this trade is 10.2 times the median historical investment amount within its comparable cost‑price range.
Account 3 is most correlated with the Israel sector, with a net profit of $7.8k. In that sector, it has 22 settled trades with a win rate of 21/22 (95%), of which 3 trades had a purchase price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.
Subscribing to BlockBeats membership allows you to view the full prediction‑market news content, unlock comprehensive account profiles, abnormal split operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
To subscribe to BlockBeats membership, add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and upon successful payment the channel link will be sent automatically
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Still not the favorite to lift the World Cup? 3 smart money investors bet against Yamal winning the Ballon d'Or
On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have put $5.8k on "No" for "Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?", with an average purchase probability of 58.5%, while the current "Yes" probability stands at 32.8%.
This market predicts the annual Ballon d'Or hosted by France's *France Football*, which evaluates overall performance throughout the 2025-2026 season, including club, national team, individual data, and championship achievements. Spain defeated Argentina in the World Cup final, making 19-year-old Lamine Yamal the youngest player to win both the Euros and the World Cup. Despite this, the final was not a highlight of his individual performance.
During the match, Spain held an absolute advantage in shots, leading 20 to 2, but it wasn't until the 106th minute of extra time that substitute Ferran Torres broke the deadlock. Nico Williams' substitution changed the offensive rhythm, while Yamal was not involved in organizing or completing the winning goal during the critical stages. Reuters noted that he lacked a decisive performance in this championship-deciding match.
In contrast, Harry Kane maintained extremely high scoring efficiency during the 2025-2026 season, scoring 61 goals for Bayern Munich across all competitions and helping the team win the Bundesliga, the German Cup, and the German Super Cup. In the World Cup, he also scored 6 goals for England, leading them to a third-place finish. The Ballon d'Or selection typically prioritizes individual performance, with team honors considered secondarily. Although Yamal won the World Cup and the Euros with his team, his statistical performance in key matches and his individual statistics throughout the entire season still show a significant gap compared to Kane.
Note: Based on their past trading profiles, these investors are not necessarily investing on whether the event actually occurs, as they exhibit behaviors such as taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x56f4f054e92ced8fa7accfebcad73251afe49ec5
0x0164c35d78f87db2658044c2c64d92254c309ed6
0xc7fbd006f27cb9bfc1edd7d90d3b26dda139e5fd
Total investment: $5.8k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 3 smart money investors have put $5.8k on "No" for "Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?", with an average purchase probability of 58.5%, while the current "Yes" probability stands at 32.8%.
0x56f4f054 has invested $2.6k, with the most relevant sector for this market being Football, with a net profit in this sector of $52.6k. Their win rate across 923 settled trades in this sector is 452/923 (49%), including 193 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost price range ($0.551-$0.7), their median historical investment amount is $1000.
0x0164c35d has invested $2.2k. With 933 settled trades, the total profit is $7.1k. This trade is 21.6 times their historical median trade.
0xc7fbd006 has invested $1.0k, with the most relevant sector for this market being Football, with a net profit in this sector of $13.1k. Their win rate across 287 settled trades in this sector is 161/287 (56%), including 139 trades where the buy price was less than $0.8 and the sell price was greater than $0.95. Within a similar cost price range ($0.451-$0.6), their median historical investment amount is $590.
This market predicts the annual Ballon d'Or hosted by France's *France Football*, which evaluates overall performance throughout the 2025-2026 season, including club, national team, individual data, and championship achievements. Spain defeated Argentina in the World Cup final, making 19-year-old Lamine Yamal the youngest player to win both the Euros and the World Cup. Despite this, the final was not a highlight of his individual performance.
During the match, Spain held an absolute advantage in shots, leading 20 to 2, but it wasn't until the 106th minute of extra time that substitute Ferran Torres broke the deadlock. Nico Williams' substitution changed the offensive rhythm, while Yamal was not involved in organizing or completing the winning goal during the critical stages. Reuters noted that he lacked a decisive performance in this championship-deciding match.
In contrast, Harry Kane maintained extremely high scoring efficiency during the 2025-2026 season, scoring 61 goals for Bayern Munich across all competitions and helping the team win the Bundesliga, the German Cup, and the German Super Cup. In the World Cup, he also scored 6 goals for England, leading them to a third-place finish. The Ballon d'Or selection typically prioritizes individual performance, with team honors considered secondarily. Although Yamal won the World Cup and the Euros with his team, his statistical performance in key matches and his individual statistics throughout the entire season still show a significant gap compared to Kane.
Note: Based on their past trading profiles, these investors are not necessarily investing on whether the event actually occurs, as they exhibit behaviors such as taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x56f4f054e92ced8fa7accfebcad73251afe49ec5
0x0164c35d78f87db2658044c2c64d92254c309ed6
0xc7fbd006f27cb9bfc1edd7d90d3b26dda139e5fd
Total investment: $5.8k
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New York Governor Signs Moratorium on Large Data Centers, but the Probability of a State-Level Moratorium Remains Only 79%
In the prediction market Polymarket, the current market probability for the event “Will any state enact a data center moratorium this year?” is 79%.
On July 14, Governor Hochul signed an executive order suspending permits for data centers over 50 megawatts. Reuters immediately reported that New York became the first state to implement a data center moratorium, causing the event probability to surge close to 100%, but it fell back to about 79% today. The event did not settle early because New York had already paused large projects; the market only recognizes legislation passed by the state legislature and enacted by law. Governor orders, county or city bans, and bills not yet signed do not count.
Governor Kathy Hochul’s EO 62 executive order has suspended state environmental permits for data centers over 50 megawatts for up to one year; however, this remains an administrative measure. The state legislature’s earlier “Responsible Data Center Development Act” covers projects over 20 megawatts, but it has not yet been formally submitted to the governor or signed. Only after the act is enacted under New York’s legal procedures will it meet the event criteria. New York’s construction trade groups and Republicans have begun opposing the moratorium, warning that it could shift AI investment, jobs, and tax revenue to other states.
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In the prediction market Polymarket, the current market probability for the event “Will any state enact a data center moratorium this year?” is 79%.
On July 14, Governor Hochul signed an executive order suspending permits for data centers over 50 megawatts. Reuters immediately reported that New York became the first state to implement a data center moratorium, causing the event probability to surge close to 100%, but it fell back to about 79% today. The event did not settle early because New York had already paused large projects; the market only recognizes legislation passed by the state legislature and enacted by law. Governor orders, county or city bans, and bills not yet signed do not count.
Governor Kathy Hochul’s EO 62 executive order has suspended state environmental permits for data centers over 50 megawatts for up to one year; however, this remains an administrative measure. The state legislature’s earlier “Responsible Data Center Development Act” covers projects over 20 megawatts, but it has not yet been formally submitted to the governor or signed. Only after the act is enacted under New York’s legal procedures will it meet the event criteria. New York’s construction trade groups and Republicans have begun opposing the moratorium, warning that it could shift AI investment, jobs, and tax revenue to other states.
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[Prediction Success] Spain clinches victory against Argentina in extra time; new account that invested before the match earns over $1 million
The new account that confidently predicted Spain would win the championship on the prediction market Polymarket yesterday—following the official "Yes" settlement for "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"—has ultimately realized a profit of $1.136 million.
In this final, Spain maintained continuous possession and besieged Argentina but repeatedly failed to bypass goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, who made 11 saves throughout the match. The team failed to complete a single shot during regulation time, becoming the first team in World Cup final history to record zero shots in the first 90 minutes.
In the 106th minute, Spain broke the deadlock when substitute Ferran Torres struck the ball into the upper part of the net. Spain ultimately defeated Argentina 1-0 thanks to that single goal, securing their second World Cup title in 16 years.
After the final whistle, Spanish substitutes rushed onto the pitch to celebrate, leading to a confrontation with Argentine players. Players, substitutes, and staff from both sides quickly swarmed together, resulting in shoving and punching. Argentine head coach Lionel Scaloni and others subsequently entered the crowd to defuse the conflict.
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The new account that confidently predicted Spain would win the championship on the prediction market Polymarket yesterday—following the official "Yes" settlement for "Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?"—has ultimately realized a profit of $1.136 million.
In this final, Spain maintained continuous possession and besieged Argentina but repeatedly failed to bypass goalkeeper Emiliano Martínez, who made 11 saves throughout the match. The team failed to complete a single shot during regulation time, becoming the first team in World Cup final history to record zero shots in the first 90 minutes.
In the 106th minute, Spain broke the deadlock when substitute Ferran Torres struck the ball into the upper part of the net. Spain ultimately defeated Argentina 1-0 thanks to that single goal, securing their second World Cup title in 16 years.
After the final whistle, Spanish substitutes rushed onto the pitch to celebrate, leading to a confrontation with Argentine players. Players, substitutes, and staff from both sides quickly swarmed together, resulting in shoving and punching. Argentine head coach Lionel Scaloni and others subsequently entered the crowd to defuse the conflict.
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Account that earned $200,000 from the US‑Israel ceasefire returns after 3 months of silence, predicts Israel's next prime minister
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account that previously earned $200,000 from predicting the US-Iran ceasefire returned after 3 months of silence, bought "‘Will Netanyahu become Israel's next prime minister?’", currently the probability of "yes" is 34.5%.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view complete prediction market news content, unlock full account profile, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content, so you can observe global news developments faster than others.
If you need to subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 account that previously earned $200,000 from predicting the US-Iran ceasefire returned after 3 months of silence, bought "‘Will Netanyahu become Israel's next prime minister?’", currently the probability of "yes" is 34.5%.
Account 1's most relevant market sector is Middle East, with sector net profit of $201k. In this sector, it has 1 settled trade with a win rate of 1/1 (100%), among which there is 1 trade with purchase price less than $0.8 and selling price greater than $0.95.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view complete prediction market news content, unlock full account profile, abnormal position operations, sector profit analysis, on-chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news content, so you can observe global news developments faster than others.
If you need to subscribe to BlockBeats membership, please add @PolyBeatsVip_Bot, and the channel link will be sent automatically after successful payment
---------------------------------
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This Year's World No.1 Company Market Cap Battle: With Only 0.7% Gap, 2 Accounts with 100% Win Rate Predict Nvidia as No.1 by Market Cap
On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money accounts invested $3.0k on "Yes" in "<Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026?>", with an average buy probability of 58.1%; the current "Yes" probability is 54.5%.
As of now, Nvidia's market cap is about $4.947t, and Apple's is about $4.915t. On a static basis, Apple would need to rise about 0.65% while Nvidia stays flat to catch up. On July 17, Apple briefly surpassed Nvidia intraday; that day Nvidia closed down 2.21%, while Apple edged up 0.14%.
Nvidia's latest earnings show that revenue for Q1 of FY2027 was about $81.6b, up 85% YoY; data center revenue was about $75.2b, up 92% YoY, with next-quarter revenue guidance of $91b±2%. More importantly, this guidance does not assume China data center business revenue; recently, H200 export licenses to China have begun to loosen, and if actual shipments scale up, it could become an additional upside factor.
Apple's latest quarterly revenue was about $111.2b, up 17% YoY, with an additional $100b buyback authorization; the market has recently begun to recognize its asset-light AI strategy and the resilience of its services business. With only a $32b market cap gap at present, one better-than-expected earnings report, AI product progress, or a pullback in Nvidia's semiconductor segment would be enough to retake the top spot.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, these investors are not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x14a977225232c3599fdd55e412ed2aa02b5298b0
0x7d3e8164c0e39cad7c720a9996d1390229573074
Total investment: $3.0k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 2 smart money accounts invested $3.0k on "Yes" in "<Will Nvidia be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31, 2026?>", with an average buy probability of 58.1%; the current "Yes" probability is 54.5%.
0x14a97722 invested $1000, with the best correlated sector for this market being Tech, and a sector net profit of $1.2k. Its win rate across 9 settled trades in this sector is 9/9 (100%), of which 2 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95.
0x7d3e8164 invested $2.0k, with the best correlated sector for this market being Tech, and a sector net profit of $1.8k. Its win rate across 11 settled trades in this sector is 11/11 (100%), of which 4 trades had a buy price below $0.8 and a sell price above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.501-$0.55), its historical median investment amount is $100, and this investment is 20.0x that median.
As of now, Nvidia's market cap is about $4.947t, and Apple's is about $4.915t. On a static basis, Apple would need to rise about 0.65% while Nvidia stays flat to catch up. On July 17, Apple briefly surpassed Nvidia intraday; that day Nvidia closed down 2.21%, while Apple edged up 0.14%.
Nvidia's latest earnings show that revenue for Q1 of FY2027 was about $81.6b, up 85% YoY; data center revenue was about $75.2b, up 92% YoY, with next-quarter revenue guidance of $91b±2%. More importantly, this guidance does not assume China data center business revenue; recently, H200 export licenses to China have begun to loosen, and if actual shipments scale up, it could become an additional upside factor.
Apple's latest quarterly revenue was about $111.2b, up 17% YoY, with an additional $100b buyback authorization; the market has recently begun to recognize its asset-light AI strategy and the resilience of its services business. With only a $32b market cap gap at present, one better-than-expected earnings report, AI product progress, or a pullback in Nvidia's semiconductor segment would be enough to retake the top spot.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, these investors are not wagering on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Accounts:
0x14a977225232c3599fdd55e412ed2aa02b5298b0
0x7d3e8164c0e39cad7c720a9996d1390229573074
Total investment: $3.0k
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PolyBeats' self-developed prediction market is here!
The new prediction market launched today, 「What aspect of PolyBeats needs the most improvement right now ___?」, investors who predict correctly can receive 7 days of PolyBeats Pro worth 20u!
We hope our investors will share more suggestions for improvement and actively make predictions. We will work hard to bring our investors better quality content! 🫡
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The new prediction market launched today, 「What aspect of PolyBeats needs the most improvement right now ___?」, investors who predict correctly can receive 7 days of PolyBeats Pro worth 20u!
We hope our investors will share more suggestions for improvement and actively make predictions. We will work hard to bring our investors better quality content! 🫡
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Oil price returns to $90, macro sector account with 78% win rate predicts ECB will not change rates in September
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 hour ago, 1 smart money invested $680 in "Yes" on 「Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?」 at an average buy probability of 32.9%, causing the "Yes" probability to rise from 12.0% to 17.0%.
Eurozone inflation in June retreated from 3.2% in May to 2.8%, with services inflation falling from 3.5% to 3.2%, and the core measure also dropping from 2.6% to 2.4%. This provides room for the ECB to wait and see at the July 23 meeting and await more data.
Even so, market expectations for a rate hike remain high. A Reuters survey of 74 economists on July 16 showed all respondents expect the ECB to hold at 2.25% in July, but 52, or about 70%, still expect at least one more hike this year, most likely in September.
A more tricky new variable comes from energy. Reuters reported on July 20 that after the US-Iran conflict escalated and Hormuz shipping risks rose, Brent crude briefly rose to $90.87 per barrel, up 3.14% on the day and 15.9% cumulatively over the previous week.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x49ae18c82dab9fd3a2bb84d0a96c3ded503ff3ba
Total invested: $680
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 hour ago, 1 smart money invested $680 in "Yes" on 「Will the ECB announce no change at the September 2026 meeting?」 at an average buy probability of 32.9%, causing the "Yes" probability to rise from 12.0% to 17.0%.
0x49ae18c8 invested $680, with the best correlated sector of this market being Macro, with a net profit of $8.4k in the sector. Across 77 settled trades in this sector, the win rate is 60/77 (78%), of which 5 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.251-$0.4), the median historical investment amount is $191.
Eurozone inflation in June retreated from 3.2% in May to 2.8%, with services inflation falling from 3.5% to 3.2%, and the core measure also dropping from 2.6% to 2.4%. This provides room for the ECB to wait and see at the July 23 meeting and await more data.
Even so, market expectations for a rate hike remain high. A Reuters survey of 74 economists on July 16 showed all respondents expect the ECB to hold at 2.25% in July, but 52, or about 70%, still expect at least one more hike this year, most likely in September.
A more tricky new variable comes from energy. Reuters reported on July 20 that after the US-Iran conflict escalated and Hormuz shipping risks rose, Brent crude briefly rose to $90.87 per barrel, up 3.14% on the day and 15.9% cumulatively over the previous week.
Note: Based on their past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x49ae18c82dab9fd3a2bb84d0a96c3ded503ff3ba
Total invested: $680
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Continuous airstrikes, naval blockade, Iran ceasefire 78% win rate smart money predicts when the US will announce halt to offensive against Iran
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested in "Will the US announce a halt to offensive operations against Iran by August 31?" Will the US announce a halt to offensive operations against Iran by August 31?, currently the probability of "Yes" is 60.0%.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money invested in "Will the US announce a halt to offensive operations against Iran by August 31?" Will the US announce a halt to offensive operations against Iran by August 31?, currently the probability of "Yes" is 60.0%.
Account 1's best correlated sector in this market is Iran Ceasefire, with a net profit of $96.1k in the sector. It has a win rate of 86/110 (78%) across 110 settled trades in this sector, of which 53 trades were bought at a price below $0.8 and sold at a price above $0.95.
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Cursor rumored to have leaked new Claude model; 77%-win-rate account believes next "Opus" will not launch within 5 days
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart-money investor invested $2.1k in "No" on "<Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?", with an average buy probability of 27.7%; the current probability for "Yes" is 53.0%.
The most concrete recent positive signal is that the developer community reported Cursor's model selector briefly showed "Claude Honeycomb EAP" on July 8–9. This was interpreted by some as a preview of Anthropic's next-generation flagship, but neither Anthropic nor Cursor has confirmed its identity; no corresponding model appears in public APIs, system cards, or product documentation.
There is also an easily misread official date on July 24: Anthropic will remove Opus 4.7's fast mode on that day, but officially recommends developers migrate to the already-existing Opus 4.8, not a teaser for a new Opus launch.
Note: Based on its past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x75a27d0cc95b3586297c1e6b5417269332cd6992
Total invested: $2.1k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart-money investor invested $2.1k in "No" on "<Will the next Claude Opus model be released by July 24, 2026?", with an average buy probability of 27.7%; the current probability for "Yes" is 53.0%.
0x75a27d0c invested $2.1k; the most relevant sector for this market is Claude, with a net sector profit of $10.2k. Across this sector, it has a win rate of 10/13 (77%) over 13 settled trades, of which 9 trades were bought below $0.8 and sold above $0.95. Within a similar cost range ($0.301–$0.35), the median historical investment amount is $1.0k.
The most concrete recent positive signal is that the developer community reported Cursor's model selector briefly showed "Claude Honeycomb EAP" on July 8–9. This was interpreted by some as a preview of Anthropic's next-generation flagship, but neither Anthropic nor Cursor has confirmed its identity; no corresponding model appears in public APIs, system cards, or product documentation.
There is also an easily misread official date on July 24: Anthropic will remove Opus 4.7's fast mode on that day, but officially recommends developers migrate to the already-existing Opus 4.8, not a teaser for a new Opus launch.
Note: Based on its past trading profile, this trader is not investing on whether the event actually occurs, and may take profit or cut losses at a certain point after opening a position.
Account:
0x75a27d0cc95b3586297c1e6b5417269332cd6992
Total invested: $2.1k
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Ten-Day Ceasefire Proposal Aims to Save Negotiations, US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal Still Stalled on Enriched Uranium and IAEA Verification
On prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor invested $6.2k on "no" in the question "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by the end of this year?", with an average buy-in probability of 70.4%, currently showing a "yes" probability of 32.5%.
This is not a "ceasefire" or "negotiation resumption" market. The market settlement requires both US and Iranian sides to sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic agreement within this year, and be recognized as the "final agreement" envisioned in the June understanding. The document must also include at least one quantifiable and verifiable nuclear restriction, such as an enriched uranium purity cap, or commitments to transfer, destroy, or dilute enriched uranium stockpiles.
June's understanding only established a 60-day extendable negotiation window, leaving core issues like enriched uranium stockpiles, frameworks, and verification to a second phase. Reuters reported on July 20 that mediators have delivered a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran, aiming to create space to restart last month's temporary arrangement; however, on the same day, US forces conducted their ninth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, and Iran continued regional attacks, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz still significantly disrupted.
Axios reported on the 21st that neither side has accepted the proposal as of the time of writing.
Note: Based on the trader's historical trading profile, this investment does not appear to be a wager on whether the event actually occurs; rather, it involves taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening positions.
Account:
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Total investment: $6.2k
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On prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart money investor invested $6.2k on "no" in the question "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal by the end of this year?", with an average buy-in probability of 70.4%, currently showing a "yes" probability of 32.5%.
Mr-Krabs invested $6.2k, with the best-related market category being Geopolitics, generating a net profit of $73.1k in that category. Across 420 settled trades in this category, the win rate is 329/420 (78%), with 67 trades where the buy-in price was below $0.8 and sell price above $0.95. Within the similar cost range ($0.651-$0.8), the median historical investment amount is $4.1k.
This is not a "ceasefire" or "negotiation resumption" market. The market settlement requires both US and Iranian sides to sign or formally adopt a written diplomatic agreement within this year, and be recognized as the "final agreement" envisioned in the June understanding. The document must also include at least one quantifiable and verifiable nuclear restriction, such as an enriched uranium purity cap, or commitments to transfer, destroy, or dilute enriched uranium stockpiles.
June's understanding only established a 60-day extendable negotiation window, leaving core issues like enriched uranium stockpiles, frameworks, and verification to a second phase. Reuters reported on July 20 that mediators have delivered a 10-day ceasefire proposal to Iran, aiming to create space to restart last month's temporary arrangement; however, on the same day, US forces conducted their ninth consecutive night of airstrikes on Iran, and Iran continued regional attacks, with shipping in the Strait of Hormuz still significantly disrupted.
Axios reported on the 21st that neither side has accepted the proposal as of the time of writing.
Note: Based on the trader's historical trading profile, this investment does not appear to be a wager on whether the event actually occurs; rather, it involves taking profits or cutting losses at certain points after opening positions.
Account:
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Total investment: $6.2k
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Commercial Activity Index Hits New Low, Smart Money Predicts $1.5k Russian Central Bank Rate Cut in July On the prediction market Polymarket, one smart money investor put $1.5k on "Yes" for the question "Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the July meeting?", with an average buy probability of 39.3%. Currently, the "Yes" probability stands at 53.5%.
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0x88a132c7 invested $1.5k, with the most correlated sector being Global Interest Rates, which has a net profit of $15.9k. Their win rate in this sector across 8 settled trades is 7/8 (88%), including 2 trades where the buy price was below $0.8 and the sell price above $0.95.The Bank of Russia has cut the key rate nine times since launching its easing cycle in 2025, gradually lowering the benchmark rate to the current 14.25%. The most recent adjustment occurred in June, with only a 25 basis point reduction, indicating a noticeable slowdown in policy pace. Amid stagflation with inflation temporarily rising and economic growth weakening, the central bank faces a trade-off between curbing price pressures and supporting the economy. Markets are closely watching whether the Bank of Russia will continue its rate-cutting cycle in the July meeting or choose to pause temporarily. On the 20th, Banki cited analyst views stating that fuel price hikes mainly stem from supply shocks, with core inflation not yet worsening. Analysts believe that a strong ruble and tight financial conditions are still suppressing the economy. If inflation expectations do not significantly worsen, the central bank might cut another 25 basis points while sending stronger signals to prepare for a pause in autumn. Another view notes that the June rate cut was only slight, indicating the central bank is slowing its easing pace. Additionally, the July commercial activity index dropped to -3.6, the lowest since 2022. Note: Based on the trader's past transaction profile, this investor is not betting on whether the event will actually occur but may be taking profits or cutting losses at certain points. Account: 0x88a132c7b2d1901d783ce3307adb36c78428618d Total investment: $1.5k
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1 new account buys into “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch before August 31?”
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $2.6k “No” in “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch before August 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 13.6%, and the current “Yes” probability is 93.0%.
Account:
0xd5a6ba5f902af11044070bdb4a5e57322162d4f0
Total invested: $2.6k
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 new account invested $2.6k “No” in “SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 will launch before August 31?”, with an average purchase probability of 13.6%, and the current “Yes” probability is 93.0%.
Account:
0xd5a6ba5f902af11044070bdb4a5e57322162d4f0
Total invested: $2.6k
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1 savvy investor buys into "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal this year?"
In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 savvy investor invested $6.2k in "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal this year?" with a "No" position, averaging a purchase probability of 70.4%, and the current probability of "Yes" is 32.5%.
Note: Based on his past trade profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event actually occurs; he engages in taking profits or losses at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Total investment: $6.2k
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In the prediction market Polymarket, 1 savvy investor invested $6.2k in "Will the US and Iran reach a final nuclear deal this year?" with a "No" position, averaging a purchase probability of 70.4%, and the current probability of "Yes" is 32.5%.
Mr-Krabs invested $6.2k, and the best correlated sector in this market is Geopolitics, with sector net profit of $73.1k. In that sector, among 420 settled trades, the win rate is 329/420 (78%), of which 67 trades had purchase price below $0.8 and sale price above $0.95. Within the similar cost price range ($0.651-$0.8), the median of his historical investment amounts is $4.1k.
Note: Based on his past trade profile, this trader is not simply betting on whether the event actually occurs; he engages in taking profits or losses at certain points after opening a position.
Account:
0x8597ca63e722d6216bfc3057591fdc67ec49daee
Total investment: $6.2k
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Starship Launch Countdown Stopped One Second Before Takeoff, New Account All In Details of Next Test Flight
On the prediction market Polymarket, one new account invested in "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Will Launch Before August 31?", with the current probability of "yes" at 93.0%. In addition to this trade, the account also predicted whether the Starship booster would explode, with a total investment of $8k.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, one new account invested in "SpaceX Starship Flight Test 13 Will Launch Before August 31?", with the current probability of "yes" at 93.0%. In addition to this trade, the account also predicted whether the Starship booster would explode, with a total investment of $8k.
Subscribe to BlockBeats membership to view the full prediction market news, unlock complete account profiles, abnormal split‑position operations, sector profit analysis, on‑chain fund tracking, and exclusive related news, giving you a step ahead in monitoring global news.
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1 smart investor invests in 'Will NATO and Russia have a military conflict between September 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025?'
On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart investor invests $51.7k 'No' in Will NATO and Russia have a military conflict between September 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025?, average purchase probability is 78.6%, current 'Yes' probability is 16.5%.
0xfaf98181c44636998a194aa7660bcae1b977f4c4 Total investment: $51.7k
Note: According to his past transaction profile, the investor is not investing on whether the event actually occurs; there is behavior of taking profit and stop loss after opening a position at some point.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, 1 smart investor invests $51.7k 'No' in Will NATO and Russia have a military conflict between September 23, 2025 and December 31, 2025?, average purchase probability is 78.6%, current 'Yes' probability is 16.5%.
0xfaf98181 invests $51.7k, is most closely related to the top sector in this market Russia, sector net profit $10.8k. It has a win rate of 7/7 (100%) on the 7 settled transactions in that sector, and there are 0 transactions where the purchase price is less than $0.8 and the sell price is greater than $0.95.
0xfaf98181c44636998a194aa7660bcae1b977f4c4 Total investment: $51.7k
Note: According to his past transaction profile, the investor is not investing on whether the event actually occurs; there is behavior of taking profit and stop loss after opening a position at some point.
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