Solana Co-Founder Hints at Backpack TGE via Avatar Change
On Polymarket, two focused addresses bet $3.2k on a Backpack token launch before April, with "Yes" odds currently at 69%.
Speculation surged 4 hours ago after Solana co-founder Toly changed his X avatar to a backpack-wearing Moonbird. The community views this as a deliberate hint, similar to his actions before Moonbird's own token announcement. Backpack has confirmed 25% of the total supply will unlock at TGE.
Account:
0x699c137a49c4cb669758be15970eea06c22b50fd 0xaed9e6da63d25693cda408c02ca2ac1907c936bc
Position: $3.2k
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On Polymarket, two focused addresses bet $3.2k on a Backpack token launch before April, with "Yes" odds currently at 69%.
Speculation surged 4 hours ago after Solana co-founder Toly changed his X avatar to a backpack-wearing Moonbird. The community views this as a deliberate hint, similar to his actions before Moonbird's own token announcement. Backpack has confirmed 25% of the total supply will unlock at TGE.
Account:
0x699c137a49c4cb669758be15970eea06c22b50fd 0xaed9e6da63d25693cda408c02ca2ac1907c936bc
Position: $3.2k
--------------------------
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New Address Bets $4k on Russia-Ukraine Ceasefire by Mar 31
On Polymarket, a fresh wallet wagered $4k on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31. The position was opened at an average price of 12¢, matching the current market rate.
Ukraine and its allies recently proposed a "multi-level ceasefire plan" with talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi. However, Russia launched major airstrikes on energy infrastructure ahead of negotiations, violating temporary truce pledges. While diplomatic channels remain open, battlefield escalation weighs heavily on the outlook.
Account: 0x2ec4659467828e49efdf31bbdfb676c3c70b0235
Position: $4k
--------------------------
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On Polymarket, a fresh wallet wagered $4k on a Russia-Ukraine ceasefire by March 31. The position was opened at an average price of 12¢, matching the current market rate.
Ukraine and its allies recently proposed a "multi-level ceasefire plan" with talks scheduled in Abu Dhabi. However, Russia launched major airstrikes on energy infrastructure ahead of negotiations, violating temporary truce pledges. While diplomatic channels remain open, battlefield escalation weighs heavily on the outlook.
Account: 0x2ec4659467828e49efdf31bbdfb676c3c70b0235
Position: $4k
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New Wallet Bets $3.4k on GPT-5.3 Launch in 10 Days Despite Silence
On Polymarket, a new address wagered $3.4k hours ago that GPT-5.3 will launch by Feb 14. The position was opened at an average price of 66¢, with "Yes" odds currently sitting at 66%.
Rumors stem from the December 2025 "Garlic leak," where internal documents identified "Garlic" as the codename for a high-density GPT-5.3 model. While CEO Sam Altman has teased imminent "major breakthroughs," OpenAI has officially only promoted GPT-4.5 Turbo and GPT-5.2, with no mention of GPT-5.3.
Account: 0x4a5102288e33e76738c0e9960d253b15c2102e50
Position: $3.4k
--------------------------
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On Polymarket, a new address wagered $3.4k hours ago that GPT-5.3 will launch by Feb 14. The position was opened at an average price of 66¢, with "Yes" odds currently sitting at 66%.
Rumors stem from the December 2025 "Garlic leak," where internal documents identified "Garlic" as the codename for a high-density GPT-5.3 model. While CEO Sam Altman has teased imminent "major breakthroughs," OpenAI has officially only promoted GPT-4.5 Turbo and GPT-5.2, with no mention of GPT-5.3.
Account: 0x4a5102288e33e76738c0e9960d253b15c2102e50
Position: $3.4k
--------------------------
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Five Suspicious Addresses Bet $13.4k on US/Israel Striking Iran
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, three new addresses wagered $6k that the US or Israel will strike Iran before Feb 28. Additionally, two high-win-rate accounts wagered $7.4k that the US will strike Iran before Feb 28.
As part of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate ongoing tensions, the US and Iran have agreed to hold nuclear talks this week in Muscat, Oman. Iran seeks to limit the agenda to its nuclear program, while the US insists on expanding the scope to include missile programs and regional proxy groups. These talks reportedly nearly collapsed due to disagreements over the venue and agenda. Separately, Trump held a "long and comprehensive phone call" with Xi Jinping to discuss multiple international issues, including Iran. During the call, the US pressured allies and partners to further isolate Tehran, while both leaders also discussed other major diplomatic and security matters.
Accounts: 0x994a53691e6aed4fda55f1a722b0c5c6f2f6dfac 0xea59f59d3cff472ad0277983af911fa7ab46e4fc 0x543c2ceb1fbd08f3836e6b10832a74c3cdb17d90 0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292 0x6a8328b1ae11569f7b27600073558879885e4c59
Total Position: $13.4k
--------------------------
See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, three new addresses wagered $6k that the US or Israel will strike Iran before Feb 28. Additionally, two high-win-rate accounts wagered $7.4k that the US will strike Iran before Feb 28.
As part of diplomatic efforts to de-escalate ongoing tensions, the US and Iran have agreed to hold nuclear talks this week in Muscat, Oman. Iran seeks to limit the agenda to its nuclear program, while the US insists on expanding the scope to include missile programs and regional proxy groups. These talks reportedly nearly collapsed due to disagreements over the venue and agenda. Separately, Trump held a "long and comprehensive phone call" with Xi Jinping to discuss multiple international issues, including Iran. During the call, the US pressured allies and partners to further isolate Tehran, while both leaders also discussed other major diplomatic and security matters.
Accounts: 0x994a53691e6aed4fda55f1a722b0c5c6f2f6dfac 0xea59f59d3cff472ad0277983af911fa7ab46e4fc 0x543c2ceb1fbd08f3836e6b10832a74c3cdb17d90 0x6bab41a0dc40d6dd4c1a915b8c01969479fd1292 0x6a8328b1ae11569f7b27600073558879885e4c59
Total Position: $13.4k
--------------------------
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Address That Bet on Khamenei Ouster by Jan 31 Wagers Additional $27.1k on Feb 28 Exit
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, the address previously reported for betting on Ayatollah Khamenei's ouster by Jan 31 has opened a new position of $27.1k, betting that Khamenei will step down before Feb 28. The position was entered at an average price of 8¢, which remains the current market price.
The Khamenei regime remains firm despite facing mass protests and international pressure. The Supreme Leader has labeled the protests a "coup" and utilized security forces for forceful suppression, while continuing to represent Iran in international negotiations. Despite persistent domestic discontent and external pressure, there are currently no authoritative reports indicating that Khamenei or the core leadership are on the verge of stepping down or losing control.
Account: 0x2e29fc8a478a458d63028c88f3bc1e89bfa66572
Position: $67.1k
----------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, the address previously reported for betting on Ayatollah Khamenei's ouster by Jan 31 has opened a new position of $27.1k, betting that Khamenei will step down before Feb 28. The position was entered at an average price of 8¢, which remains the current market price.
The Khamenei regime remains firm despite facing mass protests and international pressure. The Supreme Leader has labeled the protests a "coup" and utilized security forces for forceful suppression, while continuing to represent Iran in international negotiations. Despite persistent domestic discontent and external pressure, there are currently no authoritative reports indicating that Khamenei or the core leadership are on the verge of stepping down or losing control.
Account: 0x2e29fc8a478a458d63028c88f3bc1e89bfa66572
Position: $67.1k
----------------------
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Suspicious Address Bets $120k on Emerging FinTech Project ICO Raising $1M–$20M
On the prediction market Polymarket, over the past week, an address with only one historical transaction has wagered a total of over $120k on the event "Hurupay public sale exceeds ___," spreading bets across different amount brackets. The account's largest position—nearly $40k—is placed on the outcome that the raise will be ">$3M." The current probability of the public sale exceeding $3M stands at 42%.
Hurupay is a global fintech platform positioned for cross-border payments and collections, focusing on solving issues such as high international transfer costs, slow settlements, and difficulties in obtaining accounts. It is not a traditional bank but leverages blockchain and stablecoin architecture to provide users with bank-like functionalities.
The project officially announced plans to launch its ICO on February 3 with a minimum fundraising target of $3M. Currently, it has raised $296,330, approximately 10% of the minimum goal.
Account: 0xdc5be20ac0556fc2c5df79bcd46e145aac0ec677
Position: $120.5k
--------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, over the past week, an address with only one historical transaction has wagered a total of over $120k on the event "Hurupay public sale exceeds ___," spreading bets across different amount brackets. The account's largest position—nearly $40k—is placed on the outcome that the raise will be ">$3M." The current probability of the public sale exceeding $3M stands at 42%.
Hurupay is a global fintech platform positioned for cross-border payments and collections, focusing on solving issues such as high international transfer costs, slow settlements, and difficulties in obtaining accounts. It is not a traditional bank but leverages blockchain and stablecoin architecture to provide users with bank-like functionalities.
The project officially announced plans to launch its ICO on February 3 with a minimum fundraising target of $3M. Currently, it has raised $296,330, approximately 10% of the minimum goal.
Account: 0xdc5be20ac0556fc2c5df79bcd46e145aac0ec677
Position: $120.5k
--------------------
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"5u Warrior" Bets $11k on Iranian Regime Collapse Before 2027
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last two hours, a suspicious address wagered $11k that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027. This brings the account's total position on this outcome to $20.2k. Previously, this address typically made trades of under 10 USDC, focusing almost exclusively on 15-minute Bitcoin price fluctuation markets.
The US State Department, via its "Virtual Embassy Tehran," issued a security alert citing intensified security controls and high tensions throughout Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has flown to Oman with a delegation to prepare for negotiations with the US. While Tehran emphasizes the need for a "fair, dignified, and responsible" negotiation environment, Washington continues to display military force in the Middle East to maintain pressure.
Account: 0x42f0e27766726310e48ed96afb63fd313558fec3
Position: $20.2k
-------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last two hours, a suspicious address wagered $11k that the Iranian regime will fall before 2027. This brings the account's total position on this outcome to $20.2k. Previously, this address typically made trades of under 10 USDC, focusing almost exclusively on 15-minute Bitcoin price fluctuation markets.
The US State Department, via its "Virtual Embassy Tehran," issued a security alert citing intensified security controls and high tensions throughout Iran. Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi has flown to Oman with a delegation to prepare for negotiations with the US. While Tehran emphasizes the need for a "fair, dignified, and responsible" negotiation environment, Washington continues to display military force in the Middle East to maintain pressure.
Account: 0x42f0e27766726310e48ed96afb63fd313558fec3
Position: $20.2k
-------------------------------
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OpenAI Officially Releases GPT-5.3-Codex; Market Resolves to 'Yes'
On the prediction market Polymarket, the market "GPT-5.3 released by Feb 14?" has resolved as "Yes." A new address, reported two days ago, secured a 50% profit within 48 hours by betting on this outcome.
OpenAI officially launched GPT-5.3-Codex on February 5, making it available to ChatGPT Plus and Team users on the same day, which satisfied the market's criteria for being "released to the public." The new model's key features include agentic capabilities, performance iterations, and a novel "aerial refueling" interaction style designed to prevent context loss.
Account: 0x4a5102288e33e76738c0e9960d253b15c2102e50
Total Position: $5k
--------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the market "GPT-5.3 released by Feb 14?" has resolved as "Yes." A new address, reported two days ago, secured a 50% profit within 48 hours by betting on this outcome.
OpenAI officially launched GPT-5.3-Codex on February 5, making it available to ChatGPT Plus and Team users on the same day, which satisfied the market's criteria for being "released to the public." The new model's key features include agentic capabilities, performance iterations, and a novel "aerial refueling" interaction style designed to prevent context loss.
Account: 0x4a5102288e33e76738c0e9960d253b15c2102e50
Total Position: $5k
--------------------------
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Claude 5 'No-Show' Crashes Feb Odds; New Account Bets $10k on Release Before April
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $10.5k that Claude 5 will be released by March 31. The position was entered at a cost of 93¢, and the current probability for "Yes" stands at 85%.
Four days ago, a user posted about discovering a "claude-sonnet-5@20260203" tag in Google Vertex AI logs, sparking rumors of an imminent February 3 release.
However, yesterday saw the release of Claude Opus 4.6 instead. While the update delivered broad performance enhancements, it lacked any information regarding Claude 5, causing the probabilities for February 14 and February 28 release deadlines to plummet. The probability of a release before Feb 28 dropped from 95% yesterday to 52% today.
Community consensus has shifted, with widespread speculation that Claude 5 may be delayed until late Q1 or Q2 to further refine agentic capabilities, multimodality, and safety alignment.
Account: 0xbb6f5414a957402a12180706f7dcc1ea551b56b7
Total Position: $10.5k
----------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new account wagered $10.5k that Claude 5 will be released by March 31. The position was entered at a cost of 93¢, and the current probability for "Yes" stands at 85%.
Four days ago, a user posted about discovering a "claude-sonnet-5@20260203" tag in Google Vertex AI logs, sparking rumors of an imminent February 3 release.
However, yesterday saw the release of Claude Opus 4.6 instead. While the update delivered broad performance enhancements, it lacked any information regarding Claude 5, causing the probabilities for February 14 and February 28 release deadlines to plummet. The probability of a release before Feb 28 dropped from 95% yesterday to 52% today.
Community consensus has shifted, with widespread speculation that Claude 5 may be delayed until late Q1 or Q2 to further refine agentic capabilities, multimodality, and safety alignment.
Account: 0xbb6f5414a957402a12180706f7dcc1ea551b56b7
Total Position: $10.5k
----------------------------
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"Ethereum MicroStrategy" Bitmine 73% Likely to Announce ETH Buy Within 3 Days
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Bitmine to announce ETH buy Feb 3-9" currently stands at 73%.
Bitmine is replicating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin reserve playbook, earning it the moniker "the Ethereum version of MicroStrategy." The company has aggressively accumulated ETH through equity financing and currently holds over 4.2 million tokens, with unrealized losses exceeding $6.6 billion.
Bitmine CEO Tom Lee repeatedly predicted last year that Ethereum would surpass $10,000 by the end of 2025. However, Fundstrat—the financial research firm co-founded by Lee—indicated in its "2026 Crypto Outlook" (available only to paid subscribers) that the crypto market is poised for a significant correction in the first half of this year, setting target ranges of $60k–$65k for BTC and $1,800–$2,000 for ETH.
-------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Bitmine to announce ETH buy Feb 3-9" currently stands at 73%.
Bitmine is replicating MicroStrategy's Bitcoin reserve playbook, earning it the moniker "the Ethereum version of MicroStrategy." The company has aggressively accumulated ETH through equity financing and currently holds over 4.2 million tokens, with unrealized losses exceeding $6.6 billion.
Bitmine CEO Tom Lee repeatedly predicted last year that Ethereum would surpass $10,000 by the end of 2025. However, Fundstrat—the financial research firm co-founded by Lee—indicated in its "2026 Crypto Outlook" (available only to paid subscribers) that the crypto market is poised for a significant correction in the first half of this year, setting target ranges of $60k–$65k for BTC and $1,800–$2,000 for ETH.
-------------------------------
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AI Arms Race Intensifies; Gemini 3.5 Likely to Launch in H1
On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Gemini 3.5 release by ___?" went live yesterday. The current probability of a release within the first half of the year stands at 85%, while the odds of a launch before March 31 are 27%.
Google's development of the Gemini series has established a cadence of "one major annual version plus a semi-annual iteration." With the Gemini 3.0 series released in November–December 2025, the market widely consensus is that Google will not let it stand alone for a full year, necessitating the rollout of an enhanced version 3.5 in the first half of 2026 to maintain competitiveness.
Beyond official actions often interpreted as precursors to a launch—such as the deprecation of old models and preparations for Google I/O—the community recently discovered a model codenamed "snow bunny." Featuring a parameter scale distinct from Gemini 3.0, it is widely speculated to be the 3.5 version currently under testing.
----------------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, a new market titled "Gemini 3.5 release by ___?" went live yesterday. The current probability of a release within the first half of the year stands at 85%, while the odds of a launch before March 31 are 27%.
Google's development of the Gemini series has established a cadence of "one major annual version plus a semi-annual iteration." With the Gemini 3.0 series released in November–December 2025, the market widely consensus is that Google will not let it stand alone for a full year, necessitating the rollout of an enhanced version 3.5 in the first half of 2026 to maintain competitiveness.
Beyond official actions often interpreted as precursors to a launch—such as the deprecation of old models and preparations for Google I/O—the community recently discovered a model codenamed "snow bunny." Featuring a parameter scale distinct from Gemini 3.0, it is widely speculated to be the 3.5 version currently under testing.
----------------------------------------
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Trump Seeks Control of Local Elections; Impeachment Risk Looms if House Lost
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Trump admin to federalize elections this year?" stands at 15%.
The current US election system is federalist, with states responsible for management—including voter registration, polling stations, counting, and certification—while the federal government offers only guidance and limited oversight. Trump's proposed "federalization" implies direct federal takeover of administrative control, such as appointing federal officials to handle counting or verification, effectively replacing state agencies to ensure "fairness."
On February 2, Trump stated on a podcast that "the Republican Party should federalize voting" and "we should take over the elections in at least 15 places," comments interpreted as an intent to intervene in "corrupt" states. However, the Constitution delegates election management to the states; a federal takeover would require legislation or executive action and is likely unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Polymarket currently shows an 82% probability that Democrats will retake the House of Representatives in the midterm elections—a body that holds the power to impeach the President.
------------------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Trump admin to federalize elections this year?" stands at 15%.
The current US election system is federalist, with states responsible for management—including voter registration, polling stations, counting, and certification—while the federal government offers only guidance and limited oversight. Trump's proposed "federalization" implies direct federal takeover of administrative control, such as appointing federal officials to handle counting or verification, effectively replacing state agencies to ensure "fairness."
On February 2, Trump stated on a podcast that "the Republican Party should federalize voting" and "we should take over the elections in at least 15 places," comments interpreted as an intent to intervene in "corrupt" states. However, the Constitution delegates election management to the states; a federal takeover would require legislation or executive action and is likely unconstitutional. Meanwhile, Polymarket currently shows an 82% probability that Democrats will retake the House of Representatives in the midterm elections—a body that holds the power to impeach the President.
------------------------------------------
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81% Win Rate Political Bettor Wagers $11.1k on US Gov Shutdown Before Feb 14
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 8 hours, an address with an 81% historical win rate in political markets wagered $11.1k that the US government will shut down again before Feb 14. The position was opened at an average price of 69¢, with the current price standing at 70¢.
As temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is set to expire this Friday (after Feb 13), significant partisan disagreements over budget details remain. Democrats have proposed multiple reforms regarding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which Republicans oppose. The two sides have yet to reach an agreement on a new funding deal, and failure to resolve this deadlock could result in a lapse of DHS funding, triggering another partial government shutdown.
Account: 0x791976e861822c1f6d13f719d2c80e8deb9b72b2
Position: $11.1k
---------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last 8 hours, an address with an 81% historical win rate in political markets wagered $11.1k that the US government will shut down again before Feb 14. The position was opened at an average price of 69¢, with the current price standing at 70¢.
As temporary funding for the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) is set to expire this Friday (after Feb 13), significant partisan disagreements over budget details remain. Democrats have proposed multiple reforms regarding Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE), which Republicans oppose. The two sides have yet to reach an agreement on a new funding deal, and failure to resolve this deadlock could result in a lapse of DHS funding, triggering another partial government shutdown.
Account: 0x791976e861822c1f6d13f719d2c80e8deb9b72b2
Position: $11.1k
---------------------
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82% Win Rate Political Bettor Wagers $7.5k on Fed Rate Cut in March
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, an address with an 82% historical win rate in political markets wagered $8k that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The position was opened at an average price of 15¢, with the current price standing at 16¢.
US President Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, expected to succeed current Chair Powell upon the expiration of his term. Warsh is viewed by some analysts as favoring lower interest rates, and given that both he and Trump have historically advocated for cuts, the market is reassessing the future rate path as potentially more "accommodative." However, analysts also note that he may not necessarily push for extreme or rapid cuts, but could instead act prudently to maintain independence.
Account: 0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101
Position: $7.5k
------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, an address with an 82% historical win rate in political markets wagered $8k that the Federal Reserve will cut interest rates in March. The position was opened at an average price of 15¢, with the current price standing at 16¢.
US President Trump has officially nominated Kevin Warsh as the candidate for the next Federal Reserve Chair, expected to succeed current Chair Powell upon the expiration of his term. Warsh is viewed by some analysts as favoring lower interest rates, and given that both he and Trump have historically advocated for cuts, the market is reassessing the future rate path as potentially more "accommodative." However, analysts also note that he may not necessarily push for extreme or rapid cuts, but could instead act prudently to maintain independence.
Account: 0xaf3909f0123a907b22d7add2cd1a59a072013101
Position: $7.5k
------------------------
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New Address Bets $3.2k on US Strike on Iran Before Feb 28
On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $1.3k that the US will strike Iran before Feb 20, and $1.9k that the US will strike before Feb 28, bringing the total position to $3.2k.
Driven by ongoing nationwide protests, the Iranian government has escalated its crackdown on domestic reformists, arresting numerous prominent figures. This internal political pressure, combined with external diplomatic tensions, has further complicated the situation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the US this week to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations and broader regional security issues—including Iran's ballistic missile program and support for proxy militias—with President Trump.
Account: 0xf4e5684d2a62ed12e76df37c0c7c39d2394bf012
Position: $3.2k
-------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, within the last day, a new address wagered $1.3k that the US will strike Iran before Feb 20, and $1.9k that the US will strike before Feb 28, bringing the total position to $3.2k.
Driven by ongoing nationwide protests, the Iranian government has escalated its crackdown on domestic reformists, arresting numerous prominent figures. This internal political pressure, combined with external diplomatic tensions, has further complicated the situation. Israeli Prime Minister Netanyahu is visiting the US this week to discuss Iran nuclear negotiations and broader regional security issues—including Iran's ballistic missile program and support for proxy militias—with President Trump.
Account: 0xf4e5684d2a62ed12e76df37c0c7c39d2394bf012
Position: $3.2k
-------------------------
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5 High-Win-Rate Accounts Bet $48.2k on US Gov Shutdown Before Feb 14
On the prediction market Polymarket, over the past day, five high-win-rate accounts have wagered a total of $48.2k that the US government will shut down again before the 14th. The average entry price was approximately 71¢, with the current price standing at 74¢.
Senate Democrats have rejected the White House's DHS/ICE reform proposal, labeling it "incomplete and insufficient," which increases the difficulty of reaching an agreement before the funding deadline. While the two parties remain deadlocked over ICE reform provisions, leadership continues to state that a "deal is possible." However, the DHS funding expiration is imminent, and failure to reach an accord would disrupt the operations of DHS-related agencies.
Accounts: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f 0xee324b84546110f1fa5d4b2558edb179c3a4463a 0xe899b5ea69afb161da7a35597b6fe70398860899 0xffc49504efd8126650580438d4b22b1e7316a9f2
Total Position: $48.2k
---------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, over the past day, five high-win-rate accounts have wagered a total of $48.2k that the US government will shut down again before the 14th. The average entry price was approximately 71¢, with the current price standing at 74¢.
Senate Democrats have rejected the White House's DHS/ICE reform proposal, labeling it "incomplete and insufficient," which increases the difficulty of reaching an agreement before the funding deadline. While the two parties remain deadlocked over ICE reform provisions, leadership continues to state that a "deal is possible." However, the DHS funding expiration is imminent, and failure to reach an accord would disrupt the operations of DHS-related agencies.
Accounts: 0x05e26c775ecfe91b897d47f134c1bf5900ca6e12 0xc6dd722558dbfbd8fa780efcbe819ed8c6604b9f 0xee324b84546110f1fa5d4b2558edb179c3a4463a 0xe899b5ea69afb161da7a35597b6fe70398860899 0xffc49504efd8126650580438d4b22b1e7316a9f2
Total Position: $48.2k
---------------------------
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Vast Majority of Top 50 Holders Betting on Judy Shelton for Fed Chair Show Abnormal Trading Behavior
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Kevin Warsh being selected in the "Who will Trump nominate as the next Fed Chair?" market surged to nearly 100% following Trump's social media nomination and White House confirmation. However, attempts to resolve the market as "Yes" were rejected because official congressional documents confirming the appointment have not yet been released.
On January 30, after Judy Shelton posted a screenshot of this event on X, new addresses began placing large bets on her selection. Her probability rose from 0.1% at the time of the post to 4% currently. Analysis of the top 50 holders for Shelton reveals that 42 accounts have wagered amounts exceeding their median position size by ten times or more. Of these, 17 accounts have no other positions at all, totaling $113k. Among the remaining 8 accounts, 5 appear normal only because they hold similarly large positions betting against Warsh (buying "No"), totaling $58k.
Accounts: 0xa229ff58bdf32a763d5fc3b2a6323dd73b51cbf1 0x47b5d2d7eff10aecabc749ed41ccff97e9c9a045 0x6be8864913b5be44611706abc696cad0814808e4 0x0b03ea04dbc340f9c76ab8874c0121a45352787d
Total Position: Over $200k
---------------------------------
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability of Kevin Warsh being selected in the "Who will Trump nominate as the next Fed Chair?" market surged to nearly 100% following Trump's social media nomination and White House confirmation. However, attempts to resolve the market as "Yes" were rejected because official congressional documents confirming the appointment have not yet been released.
On January 30, after Judy Shelton posted a screenshot of this event on X, new addresses began placing large bets on her selection. Her probability rose from 0.1% at the time of the post to 4% currently. Analysis of the top 50 holders for Shelton reveals that 42 accounts have wagered amounts exceeding their median position size by ten times or more. Of these, 17 accounts have no other positions at all, totaling $113k. Among the remaining 8 accounts, 5 appear normal only because they hold similarly large positions betting against Warsh (buying "No"), totaling $58k.
Accounts: 0xa229ff58bdf32a763d5fc3b2a6323dd73b51cbf1 0x47b5d2d7eff10aecabc749ed41ccff97e9c9a045 0x6be8864913b5be44611706abc696cad0814808e4 0x0b03ea04dbc340f9c76ab8874c0121a45352787d
Total Position: Over $200k
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MrBeast's "Million Dollar Mystery" Super Bowl Ad Hunt; 30% Chance of Winner by Feb 15
On the prediction market Polymarket, the new market "Winner found for MrBeast's million dollar mystery by Feb 15?" currently stands at a 30% probability.
The event originates from an interactive Super Bowl commercial aired by MrBeast. Viewers are challenged to spot clues within the ad, follow them to solve online puzzles, and piece together the final answer. The format resembles a "national treasure hunt," requiring the audience to re-watch the footage repeatedly and analyze it frame-by-frame to connect hidden Easter eggs. According to a post by MrBeast, the associated website had received 70 million visits as of yesterday, though no winner has yet emerged.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the new market "Winner found for MrBeast's million dollar mystery by Feb 15?" currently stands at a 30% probability.
The event originates from an interactive Super Bowl commercial aired by MrBeast. Viewers are challenged to spot clues within the ad, follow them to solve online puzzles, and piece together the final answer. The format resembles a "national treasure hunt," requiring the audience to re-watch the footage repeatedly and analyze it frame-by-frame to connect hidden Easter eggs. According to a post by MrBeast, the associated website had received 70 million visits as of yesterday, though no winner has yet emerged.
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Apple iPhone 17e Release by Month-End? Probability at 51%
On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Apple announces iPhone 17e by Feb 28" currently stands at 51%.
According to renowned Bloomberg tech reporter Mark Gurman, Apple is expected to release the iPhone 17e around February 19. As the successor to the iPhone 16e, the new model is expected to maintain the starting price of $599, positioning it as a high-value entry in the lineup.
Notably, the previous generation iPhone 16e was also released during this same period last year (February 2025), suggesting a consistent update cycle for the series. As of press time, Apple has not issued any official announcements regarding the iPhone 17e or a spring event.
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On the prediction market Polymarket, the probability for the new market "Apple announces iPhone 17e by Feb 28" currently stands at 51%.
According to renowned Bloomberg tech reporter Mark Gurman, Apple is expected to release the iPhone 17e around February 19. As the successor to the iPhone 16e, the new model is expected to maintain the starting price of $599, positioning it as a high-value entry in the lineup.
Notably, the previous generation iPhone 16e was also released during this same period last year (February 2025), suggesting a consistent update cycle for the series. As of press time, Apple has not issued any official announcements regarding the iPhone 17e or a spring event.
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
Four New Addresses Bet $17k on EdgeX FDV Exceeding $2B Within One Day
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses have wagered a combined $17k on "Yes" in the market "EdgeX FDV > $2B within 1 day?". The positions were opened at an average price range of 35¢–39¢, with the current price standing at 31¢.
EdgeX is a Web3 project focused on trading and financial infrastructure, positioning itself as a foundational architecture for trading systems. It centers on high-performance matching, derivatives trading, and exchange-grade infrastructure, aiming to provide a highly efficient on-chain or hybrid trading environment. Market analysis notes that new project launches often feature low circulating supply and high opening prices, factors which can easily drive up Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) amidst limited early liquidity.
Accounts: 0xe4c61d2f0b77d7d5381b9cf409d184c4e1da91db 0xbb181d42d1973345f0db83e7d168ce17397cb519 0xae6a7c4bcfe1b99194021f3addfc263968825e59 0x30dec867b8f9dfb71663a7b2121a20e09bd0fa1f
Total Position: $17k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN
On the prediction market Polymarket, four new addresses have wagered a combined $17k on "Yes" in the market "EdgeX FDV > $2B within 1 day?". The positions were opened at an average price range of 35¢–39¢, with the current price standing at 31¢.
EdgeX is a Web3 project focused on trading and financial infrastructure, positioning itself as a foundational architecture for trading systems. It centers on high-performance matching, derivatives trading, and exchange-grade infrastructure, aiming to provide a highly efficient on-chain or hybrid trading environment. Market analysis notes that new project launches often feature low circulating supply and high opening prices, factors which can easily drive up Fully Diluted Valuation (FDV) amidst limited early liquidity.
Accounts: 0xe4c61d2f0b77d7d5381b9cf409d184c4e1da91db 0xbb181d42d1973345f0db83e7d168ce17397cb519 0xae6a7c4bcfe1b99194021f3addfc263968825e59 0x30dec867b8f9dfb71663a7b2121a20e09bd0fa1f
Total Position: $17k
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See tomorrow, today. Follow @PolyBeatsEN