PSIR Optional Political Science and International Relation
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📝India-Pakistan Relations A Framework:Dialogue-Disruption-Dialogue ( Part 1 )

🔶 The relations between India and Pakistan are marked by divergent narratives starting with the very beginning of these countries as independent nations in 1947 in the backdrop of the colonial rule, the two nation theory and the partition of India. This had made it difficult to reconcile positions on issues ranging from territory (J&K), boundaries (Sir Creek and Siachen) and Security (Terrorism).

🔶The foundational apprehensions of Pakistan against India and its quest for defining itself as the opposite has led to its intransigence on many issues.

🔶The structure of this relation has been conflict prone and marked by asymmetry.

🔶 The pattern in the decades since independence has shown a cycle of Disruption-Dialogue- Disruption. This means cooperation and peace have often taken place parallel to the threats of war or have been disrupted by violent episodes of terrorism.
📝India-Pakistan Relations A Framework:Dialogue-Disruption-Dialogue ( Part 2 )

🔶Though there had been sporadic agreements and treaties signed between India and Pakistan such as the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, the Tashkent Agreement of 1966, and theShimla Agreement of 1972, a systematic peace-process between the two adversarial neighbours had never taken off till the Composite Dialogue Process (CDP) in the late 1990s’

🔶 Idea of a “composite dialogue process” (CDP) was articulated at the 1997 Male meeting between Indian Prime Minister I.K. Gujral and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

🔶However the composite dialogue process has also been disrupted by events such as the Kargil war of 1999, the attack on India parliament in 2001 and the 26/11 attack in Mumbai
in 2008.

🔶When the two countries again started engaging in 2010 it the name of CDP was changed to the ‘Resumed Dialogue’, with some changes in the content, including progress on Mumbai trial.
📝India-Pakistan Relations A Framework:Dialogue-Disruption-Dialogue ( Part 2 )

🔶Though there had been sporadic agreements and treaties signed between India and Pakistan such as the Indus Water Treaty of 1960, the Tashkent Agreement of 1966, and theShimla Agreement of 1972, a systematic peace-process between the two adversarial neighbours had never taken off till the Composite Dialogue Process (CDP) in the late 1990s’

🔶 Idea of a “composite dialogue process” (CDP) was articulated at the 1997 Male meeting between Indian Prime Minister I.K. Gujral and Pakistani Prime Minister Nawaz Sharif.

🔶However the composite dialogue process has also been disrupted by events such as the Kargil war of 1999, the attack on India parliament in 2001 and the 26/11 attack in Mumbai
in 2008.

🔶When the two countries again started engaging in 2010 it the name of CDP was changed to the ‘Resumed Dialogue’, with some changes in the content, including progress on Mumbai trial.
📝Key Issues Between India and Pakistan

🔶The India-Pakistan joint statement on 23 September 1998, following the meeting of the two Foreign Secretaries in New York, identified the issues to be included in the CDP between the two countries and the levels at which they were to be addressed.

1. Peace and Security including Confidence Building Measures (CBMs) — Foreign Secretaries

2. Jammu and Kashmir — Foreign Secretaries

3. Siachen — Defence Secretaries

4. Wullar Barrage/Tulbul Navigation Project Secretaries, Water & Power

5. Sir Creek — Additional Secretary (Defence)/Surveyors General

6. Terrorism and Drug Trafficking — Home/Interior Secretaries

7. Economic and Commercial Cooperation — Commerce Secretaries.

8. Promotion of Friendly exchanges in various fields — Secretaries, Culture.
📝The Indus Water Treaty

🔶The Indus Waters Treaty was signed in 1960 after nine years of negotiations between India and Pakistan with the help of the World Bank, which is also a signatory. Signed by India’s Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru and the then President of Pakistan, Ayub Khan.

🔶 The treaty pertains to most complete and satisfactory utilisation of the waters of the Indus system comprising of the six rivers running across the Indus basin.

🔶The negotiations were the initiative of former World Bank President Eugene Black.

🔶 Former U.S. President Dwight Eisenhower described it as "one bright spot ... in a very depressing world picture that we see so often."
📝 Significance of The Indus Water Treaty

🔶 It is Seen as one of the most successful international treaties,

🔶It has survived frequent tensions, including conflict, and

🔶It has provided a framework for irrigation and hydropower development for more than
half a century.

🔶 It is a generous treaty in terms of both the sharing ratio (80.52 per cent of the aggregate water flows in the Indus system reserved for Pakistan) and the total volume of basin waters for the downstream state.

🔶 It is the first and only treaty that goes beyond water sharing to partitioning rivers.
📝Important Provisions of Indus Water Treaty

🔶 The three western rivers (Jhelum, Chenab and Indus) were made available to Pakistan for unrestricted use.

🔶 Three eastern rivers (Ravi, Beas and Sutlej), were made available to India for unrestricted use.
📝Indus, Jhelum and Chenab: Western Rivers and India

🔶Under the treaty obligation India shall not permit any interference with these waters
except for the following uses defined under the treaty:

🔶 Domestic Use;

🔶 Non-Consumptive Use;

🔶 Agricultural Use, as set out in Annexure C; and

🔶 Generation of hydro-electric power, as set out in Annexure D.

🔶Except as provided in Annexure D and E, India shall not store any water of, or construct any storage works on, the Western Rivers.

🔶 Thus, while India could use the western rivers, restrictions were placed on building of storage systems.
📝Working of the Indus treaty:

🔶 Treaty sets out a mechanism for cooperation and information exchange between the two countries regarding their use of the rivers, known as the Permanent Indus Commission, which has a commissioner from each country.

🔶The Treaty also sets forth distinct procedures to handle issues which may arise:

🔶“questions” are handled by the Commission;

🔶“differences” are to be resolved by a Neutral Expert; and

🔶“disputes” are to be referred to a seven-member arbitral tribunal called the “Court of
Arbitration.”

🔶 The World Bank’s role in relation to “differences” and “disputes” is limited to the designation of people to fulfill certain roles when requested by either or both of the parties.
📝Recent Disagreements on Indus Water Treaty

🔶India and Pakistan disagree about the construction of the Kishenganga (330 megawatts)
and Ratle (850 megawatts) hydroelectric power plants being built by India.

🔶 The two countries disagree over whether the technical design features of the two hydroelectric plants contravene the Treaty.

🔶 The plants are on respectively a tributary of the Jhelum and the Chenab Rivers.

🔶 The Treaty designates these two rivers as well as the Indus as the “Western Rivers” to which Pakistan has unrestricted use.

🔶Among other uses, under the Treaty, India is permitted to construct hydroelectric power
facilities on these rivers subject to constraints specified in Annexures to the Treaty.
📝What are Indian Concerns in Recent Times?

🔶 From the Indian point of view, the basic dissatisfaction with the treaty arises from the fact that it prevents the country from building any storage systems on the western rivers. Even though the treaty lays out that under certain exceptional circumstances storage systems can be built, the complaint raised by India is that Pakistan deliberately stops any such effort due to the political rivalry it shares with India.

🔶The Treaty has too many engineering provisions and gives Pakistan undue right to vet the designs of the Indian projects. India has been attempting to construct run of the river projects on the western rivers. Run-of-the-river projects are permitted by the Indus treaty within defined limits. But Pakistan wants no Indian works on the three “western rivers” and seeks international intercession by invoking the treaty’s dispute-settlement provisions.
📝Increasing Questions on the Treaty

🔶 In the context of terrorism being used as an instrument of state policy by Pakistan questions have been raised about the treat

🔶In 1960, India accepted the treaty as a goodwill gesture trading water for peace. Within five years of the treaty’s entry into force, Pakistan launched a war to grab the Indian part of J&K in 1965.

🔶 Pakistan insists on rights without responsibilities. Many argue, that use of state-reared terrorist groups can be invoked by India, under Article 62 of the Vienna Convention on the Law of Treaties, as constituting reasonable grounds for withdrawal from the Indus treaty.

🔶The International Court of Justice has upheld the principle that a treaty may be dissolved by reason of a fundamental change of circumstances.
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📝 India’s Options

🔶Utilizing the eastern river waters optimally.

🔶Ensure that the infrastructure which needs to be developed to fully exploit the capacity as
provisioned as part of the IWT with respect to both western and eastern rivers should be
completed expeditiously in a time bound manner.

🔶Utilizing the existing dispute resolution mechanism judiciously.

🔶 India needs to continue its engagement with Afghanistan and assist in dam construction,
not withstanding protestations by Pakistan.
📝Sir Creek Dispute

🔶 The 96-km estuary between India and Pakistan, cutting through where Gujarat State and Sindh province meet, has had a dramatic impact on Indian security, though it’s always been seen to be relatively simple to resolve.

🔶It was one of the subjects in the India-Pakistan composite dialogue that resumed under Atal Bihari Vajpayee’s government in 2004.

🔶Six rounds of talks have taken place, the two sides have conducted a joint survey of the creek and exchanged maps showing their respective positions.

🔶 The issue remains unresolved.
📝The Sir Creek Issue: Significance

🔶 Over the years, the creek has also changed its course considerably. If one country agrees to the other’s traditional position, then the former will end up losing a vast amount of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

🔶 A vital reason for two countries locking horns over this creek is the possible presence of great oil and gas concentration under the sea, which are currently unexploited thanks to the impending deadlock on the issue.

🔶Because of various factors, the Sir Creek area is also a great fishing destination for hundreds of fishermen from both India and Pakistan. Sir Creek is considered to be among the largest fishing grounds in Asia. In the desperation for a great catch, many of their boats stray across the perceived boundaries, and they end up being arrested by the other side.

🔶 Maritime security concerns were heightened since November 2008, when 10 terrorists from the Lashkar-e-Taiba left in a Pakistani boat for Mumbai.
📝The Sir Creek Issue: Significance

🔶 Over the years, the creek has also changed its course considerably. If one country agrees to the other’s traditional position, then the former will end up losing a vast amount of Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ).

🔶 A vital reason for two countries locking horns over this creek is the possible presence of great oil and gas concentration under the sea, which are currently unexploited thanks to the impending deadlock on the issue.

🔶Because of various factors, the Sir Creek area is also a great fishing destination for hundreds of fishermen from both India and Pakistan. Sir Creek is considered to be among the largest fishing grounds in Asia. In the desperation for a great catch, many of their boats stray across the perceived boundaries, and they end up being arrested by the other side.

🔶 Maritime security concerns were heightened since November 2008, when 10 terrorists from the Lashkar-e-Taiba left in a Pakistani boat for Mumbai.
📝 Siachen

🔶 The Siachen dispute is a direct result of the ambiguity that exists in the Karachi ceasefire agreement of July 1949. The agreement, which established the ceasefire line, the positions of the two militaries at the end of the 1947-1948 war, did not delineate beyond grid reference NJ 9842, which falls south of the Siachen glacier,

🔶The 1972 Simla Agreement mentions the boundary after this point to extend “north to the glaciers”.

🔶 India established its ground position in 1984, a response to Pakistan’s Oropolitics, through the Operation Meghdoot in 1984 and remains in control of the glacier

🔶 Divergent positions held by India and Pakistan on the dispute is one of the primary reasons why the negotiations on demilitarising the Siachen glacier and the adjoining areas have not progressed much.
📝The China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC)

🔶 The China Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC) is part of the larger OBOR or the Belt and Road(BRI) project of China.

🔶It aims to connect Kasgar in the Xinxiang province of China to the warm water port of Gwadar in the Baluchistan province of Pakistan. It involves multiple infrastructure projects including, highways, railroads, waterways and pipelines. The Project investment estimates
range from US$ 40 billion to 60 billion.

🔶 Gwadar deep sea port, a culmination point of the ambitious China-Pakistan Economic Corridor (CPEC), which will be able to handle 13 million tonnes of cargo annually within five years — and an astounding 400 million tonnes annually by 2030 to be transported to landlocked Central Asia and to western China.
What was the Ottoman Empire?

An empire created by Turkish tribes in Anatolia (Asia Minor) that grew to be one of the most powerful states in the world during the 15th and 16th centuries.

The Ottoman period spanned more than 600 years and came to an end only in 1922, when it was replaced by the Turkish Republic and various successor states in southeastern Europe and the Middle East.

At its height the empire encompassed most of southeastern Europe to the gates of Vienna, including present-day Hungary, the Balkan region, Greece, and parts of Ukraine; portions of the Middle East now occupied by Iraq, Syria, Israel, and Egypt; North Africa as far west as Algeria; and large parts of the Arabian Peninsula.
📝The Kulbhushan Jadhav Issue

🔶 Pakistan claimed to have arrested Jadhav from Balochistan on March 3, 2016. India maintains that Jadhav was kidnapped from Iran where he was involved in business activities after retiring from the Indian Navy in 2002.

🔶 In April 2017 Pakistan's military establishment announced that Jadhav would be hanged.

🔶 Shortly after India approached the International Court of Justice (ICJ. As India was denied Consular access to Jadhav. India has accused Pakistan of violating the Vienna Convention.

🔶 Pakistan contended that the Vienna Convention provisions on consular access were not intended for a "spy" involved in subversive activities.

🔶 India believes the ICJ can look into Jadhav’s case as both the countries are signatories to the optional protocol of the Vienna convention on consular relations (VCCR). The protocol says any dispute arising out of the interpretation or application of VCCR shall lie within the jurisdiction of the ICJ.

🔶On 18 May 2017 International Court of Justice stays death sentence given to Kulbhushan Jadhav by Pakistani military court until further notice.

🔶 This is the first time after 1971 that India has turned to the ICJ in a dispute with Pakistan.

🔶 In September 1974, India spelt out the matters over which it would accept the jurisdiction of the ICJ, replacing a similar declaration made in 1959.

🔶 Among the matters over which India does not accept the ICJ jurisdiction are: “Disputes with the government of any state which is or has been a member of the Commonwealth of Nations”.

🔶Moving the ICJ amounts to taking disputes with Pakistan to a multilateral forum, which New Delhi tends to avoid.