The situation remains fluid, with developments shifting almost daily.
The initial 48-hour ultimatum from Donald Trump was set to expire on Monday, but was extended by five more days.
With around three days left, markets are closely watching the next move.

👉 The key demand remains the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz.
The news flow, however, is mixed:
• Trump signaled a potential deal with Iran
• Iran denied it, accusing him of attempting to influence financial markets

📊 What else is in focus:
• Pakistan has offered to host negotiations
• United Arab Emirates is reportedly considering involvement alongside Israel
• China is said to be pressuring Tehran, as stable energy supply remains critical

📈 What it means for markets:
Right now, headlines are driving price action.

👉 Any new development could shift sentiment:
• toward escalation
• or de-escalation

💵 Market impact:
• escalation → USD strengthens
• easing tensions → USD weakens, flows rotate into risk assets

📌 Bottom line:
Markets are in a high-uncertainty phase, where geopolitics outweighs macro data.

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☀️ FOREX NEWS: MARKETS NEAR PEAK VOLATILITY

Global markets remain under pressure as sharp price moves and a repricing of rate expectations continue to drive flows.

📊 What’s driving the market:

• oil continues to push higher, trading above $100–104 per barrel
• March gains have exceeded +40%
• rising commodity prices are reinforcing inflation risks

• the bond market remains under stress
→ Treasury volatility is approaching yearly highs
→ spreads have widened by roughly 30%

• the US dollar remains firm
→ supported by expectations of tighter-for-longer policy

📉 Equities:

• Asian indices are lower
→ Nikkei −0.7%, Hang Seng −1.7%

• global risk sentiment remains fragile

💵 FX market:

• USD holds firm
• EUR/USD remains under pressure (around 1.14)
• USD/JPY continues to grind higher on rate differentials

The market is in a phase where rising commodity prices are feeding into inflation, reinforcing “higher for longer” expectations. This dynamic continues to support the USD while capping upside in risk assets.

Volatility remains elevated, and markets are shifting into a regime where macro conditions and energy prices are the primary drivers of FX.

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🚀 MACRO CONTEXT: WHY ARE ALL MARKETS CONNECTED?

Many beginner traders focus on a single pair, like EUR/USD, trying to understand price action in isolation. But markets don’t work that way — they function as a unified system where all assets are interconnected.

Currencies, commodities, equities, bonds, and interest rates constantly influence each other because capital is always moving. Money flows to where conditions are more attractive or perceived as safer.

📊 How does this connection work?

Rising oil prices push inflation higher. This forces central banks to keep rates elevated for longer, which supports the US dollar. As a result, pressure builds on other currencies, as well as equities and gold — one move can trigger a chain reaction across the entire system.

Similarly, when equity markets decline, investors reduce risk and rotate into safe-haven assets. This increases demand for USD, JPY, and CHF, even in the absence of direct news.

📌 Three key market drivers:

• interest rates
• inflation
• risk sentiment (risk-on / risk-off)

Understanding which factor is dominant at any given time already gives you an edge.

💡How to use it?

Before entering a trade, ask yourself: what is actually driving the market right now — rates, commodities, or risk sentiment?
This helps you understand the context behind the move. The chart shows the outcome, while macro context explains the cause. Markets are not a collection of isolated instruments, but a connected system where capital flows shape price action.

Understanding macro doesn’t make trading easier — but it makes it more logical.

What do you think is the main market driver right now?

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🧠 SATURDAY PSYCHOLOGY: WHERE THE MARKET PAID

This week, the key move was the rally in oil and the strengthening of the USD.

• March 24–25 — initial impulse driven by news
• oil rallied from ~$78–80 to $100+ (peaking at around +25–30% within the move)
• the week closed near $100–104
• the dollar index held above 104–105
• USD/JPY stabilized above 157

A classic chain reaction played out:
rising commodities → inflation → “higher for longer” expectations → demand for the dollar

📌 Best approach:
Avoid entering during the impulse. The optimal setup was to wait for the pullback on March 26 and enter in line with the trend.

⚠️ Common mistakes:
• entering at the top of the move
• emotional trading
• lack of a clear RR
• moving or not placing a stop loss

🕯 The market rewards patience. The best trades come after the impulse, not during it.

How did you trade this move — did you enter the impulse or wait for a pullback?

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⚡️ECONOMIC CALENDAR (March 30 — April 3)

The week is driven by US macro data and labor market signals. The main focus is on the dollar and interest rate expectations.

🌐 ASIA

📍 Monday–Tuesday
PMI (Japan, China) — 01:30–02:00 GMT
Reflect overall business activity

📍 Wednesday
Inflation (Australia CPI) — 01:30 GMT
Impacts RBA rate expectations

💵 USA

📍 Monday
Powell speech — key signal for Fed policy

📍 Wednesday
ADP (labor market) — 12:15 GMT
GDP (final reading) — 12:30 GMT
ISM Manufacturing / Services — 14:00 GMT
Retail Sales — 12:30 GMT
This data block may significantly increase USD volatility

📍 Thursday
Initial Jobless Claims — 12:30 GMT
Reflect current labor market conditions

📍Friday
NFP (Non-Farm Payrolls) — 12:30 GMT
ISM — 14:00 GMT
The main driver of the week for USD and global FX

💸 EUROPE
PMI (Germany, Eurozone) — 07:00–08:00 GMT
Weak readings are expected, increasing pressure on EUR
ECB rate decision — 12:15 GMT
A key factor for EUR dynamics

🕯 UNITED KINGDOM
PMI — 08:30 GMT
Weak data may put pressure on GBP

The market is focused on US data. Strong figures will reinforce expectations of tighter Fed policy and support the dollar, while weak data may trigger a correction and a recovery in risk assets

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❓ What is drawdown (DD)?

In trading, it’s important not only to make profits, but also to understand how much you can lose along the way, since even a profitable strategy goes through periods of decline.

Drawdown (DD) is the drop in your account balance from its peak to the lowest point that follows.
Simply put, it’s the difference between your highest balance and the decline that comes after.

For example, if your balance was $1000 and then drops to $800, the drawdown is 20%.

🕯Why drawdown occurs:

• a series of losing trades
• changing market conditions
• mistakes in risk management
• position sizes that are too large

🔥What’s important to understand:
Drawdown is a normal part of trading, and every strategy experiences it at some point.
What really matters is not the drawdown itself, but how well it is controlled.

ℹ️ What levels are considered normal:

• up to 10% is generally considered low
• 10–20% is considered moderate
• above 20% is considered high risk

At the same time, it all depends on the strategy and the risk approach.

⚠️ When to be cautious:

• if drawdown keeps increasing without stabilizing
• if there is no clear risk control
• if there is a strong urge to recover losses quickly
• if position size increases after losses

Drawdown does not indicate a weak strategy, but rather the level of risk control.
A trader who manages drawdown well preserves capital and stays in the market over the long term.

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📊TRADING SCHEDULE

Please note that in the coming days, a number of holidays will affect the trading schedule (trading terminal server time EET).

✨Maundy Thursday
April 2, 2026
ASX200 - early close 16:00
HK50 - early close 22:00
DAX40, CAC40, EuroStoxx50 - early close 23:00

✨Good Friday
April 3, 2026
Metals, Brent, WTI, NGAS, ASX200, DAX40, CAC40, EuroStoxx50, HK50, IBEX35, FTSE100, N25, CFD Shares US, CFD Shares DE, CFD Shares Asia - trading off.
DowJones30, Nasdaq100, S&P500, Nikkei225, Russell2000 - early close 16:15.

✨Easter Monday 
April 6, 2026
ASX200, DAX40, CAC40, EuroStoxx50, HK50, IBEX35, FTSE100, N25, CFD Shares DE, XALUSD, CFD Shares Asia - trading off.

✨Post-Easter market reopening
April 7, 2026
CAC40 - late open 09:00
HK50 - trading off.
Post-Easter market reopening
April 8, 2026
EuroStoxx50, DAX40 - late open 03:15
ASX200 - late open 02:50
FTSE100 - late open 03:00
HK50 - late open 04:15

✨Tiradentes Day
April 21, 2026
USDBRL - trading off.
Labour Day Eve
April 30, 2026
DAX40, CAC40, EuroStoxx50 - early close 23:00
HK50 - early close 22:00

We recommend taking these changes into account when planning your trades.

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⚠️ EUR/USD: Eurozone inflation and what’s driving the market

📉 The latest inflation data from the eurozone came in mixed and did not provide strong support for the euro.

• CPI (YoY): 2.5% (forecast 2.6%)
• Core CPI: 2.3% (below expectations of 2.4%)

👀 Headline inflation increased, but the growth was mainly driven by energy rather than domestic demand.

• energy prices: +4.9% after −3.1% a month earlier
• services slowed to 3.2% from 3.4%
• goods and food also showed weaker growth

This suggests that underlying inflation pressure in the economy is easing.

💬 Market reaction:

EUR/USD showed a limited reaction, as this scenario had largely been priced in. The release reduced expectations of an ECB rate hike in the near term, which is limiting the euro’s upside.

What is actually driving the market now:

• geopolitical developments in the Middle East
• news around possible de-escalation
• comments from Jerome Powell signaling a wait-and-see approach

The current move higher in EUR/USD looks unstable and is driven more by news than by fundamentals. If tensions rise again, demand for the dollar could return quickly. For now, the pair remains in an uncertain zone, and the upside looks more like a correction.

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📊 Macro context: where does money flow during a crisis?

When uncertainty increases in the market, money does not disappear but shifts into assets that are perceived as more reliable. Investors gradually reduce risk and move away from instruments that are most dependent on economic conditions, as these are usually the first to come under pressure. This often includes equities, high-yield assets, and emerging market currencies.

❓ Where does the money go?

Freed-up capital moves into more stable instruments that help preserve value during periods of instability. Demand first shifts toward the US dollar, as it remains the main reserve currency and offers high liquidity.
At the same time, interest in gold increases, since it is traditionally used as a safe-haven asset during turbulent periods.

Demand for government bonds also rises, especially US Treasuries, as they are considered among the safest instruments in the market.

These capital flows are directly reflected in price movements, as a stronger dollar puts pressure on other currencies, increased demand for gold supports its price, and stock markets often decline during such periods.

❓ What should a trader keep in mind?

During a crisis, the market is driven not only by economic data but also by the desire to preserve capital, which is why it is important to track not just the news, but also the direction of money flows. The key idea is that the market is a system of capital movement, and understanding these processes provides a more stable edge than trying to predict short-term price direction.

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📉 ECONOMIC CALENDAR

Last week, US macro data supported the dollar: the ISM index increased, while March Nonfarm Payrolls showed job growth and a decline in unemployment. However, contradictory statements by Donald Trump regarding Iran, along with the deadline on the Strait of Hormuz, increased market uncertainty.

🗓 Monday, 06.04.2026
In Europe and Canada — Easter Monday (banks closed).
The key release is the US ISM Services PMI. According to preliminary forecasts, the index will remain in expansion territory but may decline to 55 points. Such a result could support the greenback, especially following the rise in the manufacturing ISM index, which reached a near four-year high.

🗓 Tuesday, 07.04.2026
Tuesday will mostly feature secondary reports.
Markets will focus on the deadline of Trump’s ultimatum to Iran.

Key points of the ultimatum:
• Iran must reopen the Strait of Hormuz or reach an agreement
• otherwise, Trump threatens strikes on infrastructure (energy, bridges, etc.)

If the deadline is extended again, the dollar may come under pressure.

🗓 Wednesday, 08.04.2026
Three key events will be in focus:
• RBNZ interest rate decision. The regulator is expected to keep policy unchanged, so attention will be on the statement.
• Eurozone retail sales. The indicator is expected to slow to 1.8% YoY.
• FOMC meeting minutes. At the last press conference, Jerome Powell stated that rates will remain unchanged until inflation shows устойчивое замедление. If the tone is cautious, the dollar may weaken.

🗓 Thursday, 09.04.2026
Final estimate of US GDP for Q4 2025.
Key release — Core PCE, one of the main inflation indicators. After rising to 3.1% in January, it is expected to ease slightly to 3%.

🗓 Friday, 10.04.2026
The key event is US CPI. All components are expected to accelerate.
Headline CPI: from 2.4% to 3.4% (highest since May 2024).
The main driver is oil, with gasoline prices reaching a near four-year high.
Core CPI is also expected to rise from 2.5% to 2.7%.

The week ahead is expected to be насыщенной and volatile. Key releases may support the dollar, unless the US and Iran move toward de-escalation.

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👀 What are currency pairs?

In the Forex market, trading always takes place between two currencies, because one currency is bought while another is sold at the same time. That is why currency pairs are the main instrument in trading.

A currency pair shows the value relationship between one currency and another. For example, in the EUR/USD pair, the first currency is called the base currency, and the second is the quote currency.
If EUR/USD is trading at 1.10, it means that 1 euro equals 1.10 US dollars. One unit of the first currency equals the stated amount of the second currency.

📊 How many currency pairs are there?

In theory, there are many possible currency combinations, since almost every world currency can be paired with another. In practice, most brokers offer between 50 and 100 currency pairs.

They are usually divided into:
• major pairs — the most popular and liquid pairs
• cross pairs — pairs without the US dollar
• exotic pairs — pairs involving currencies from developing countries

Although many pairs are available, most global trading volume is concentrated in just a few of the most popular instruments.

New pairs may appear when interest in a particular currency grows, international trade expands, or trader demand increases.
For example, if a country’s economy develops rapidly, its currency may begin to be used more often in international markets and become part of new trading instruments.

⚠️ What is important to consider?
When a trader opens a trade, they are predicting how the value of the first currency will change relative to the second.
If the first currency is expected to rise, the trader buys the pair. If it is expected to fall, the trader sells it.

Currency pair movements are influenced by interest rates, inflation, economic data, political events, and overall market sentiment.

Understanding how currency pairs work is the foundation of Forex, because this is how traders view the market and make decisions.

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ECONOMIC CALENDAR 📉

The week started with a sharp strengthening of the US dollar — most instruments opened with a gap. The reason was the failed negotiations between the US and Iran, which increased geopolitical tensions. Against this backdrop, demand for safe-haven assets rose, and the dollar once again acted as a “safe haven.” Investors began moving away from risk, reallocating capital in favor of the US currency. Additional pressure comes from expectations of potential escalation from the US side. All this supports the dollar and drives its growth at the beginning of the week.

An additional factor is that, starting April 13, the US announced the beginning of a naval blockade of all vessels entering and leaving Iranian ports.

🗓 Monday, April 13, 2026
The economic calendar is empty. Only US existing home sales data may attract attention.

🗓 Tuesday, April 14, 2026
The key release of the week is the Producer Price Index (PPI).
12:00 PM (UTC) — Speech by Bank of England Governor Andrew Bailey
05:00 PM (UTC) — Speech by ECB President Christine Lagarde

🗓 Wednesday, April 15, 2026
11:50 AM (UTC) — Andrew Bailey
03:30 PM (UTC) — Christine Lagarde

🗓 Thursday, April 16, 2026
Pacific session — Australia labor market data
Asian session — A large block of data from China. GDP growth is expected to increase both YoY and QoQ, which may indirectly weaken the dollar and support NZD and AUD.
However, retail sales and industrial production may decline.

🗓 Friday, April 17, 2026
The calendar contains only secondary events.

🔎 Conclusion
Geopolitics remains the key driver. The market is shifting toward safe-haven assets, which may increase volatility — trade cautiously and keep the news background in mind.

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💱 What is Swap in Forex?

A swap is a fee or a credit applied for holding a trade overnight. If a position remains open overnight, the broker either charges a small amount or, in some cases, credits it.

💵 Why does a swap occur?

A swap arises due to the difference in interest rates between the two currencies in a pair. Each currency has its own rate. When you open a trade, you are essentially “borrowing” one currency and “holding” the other. The difference between these rates forms the swap.

If the interest rate of the currency you are buying is higher than that of the currency you are selling, the swap can be positive. If the rate is lower, the swap will be negative. This means that for holding a position, you either pay or receive a small amount.

ℹ️ When is the swap applied?

A swap is applied for holding a position overnight. It is usually calculated once per day, but in the middle of the week (most often on Wednesday), it can be applied in triple size to account for the weekend.

⚠️ What is important to consider?

A swap may seem insignificant, but when holding a position for a longer period, it accumulates and begins to affect the result. It is important to take it into account in advance, especially if you plan to keep a trade open for several days.
A swap is not a hidden fee, but a normal part of the market related to interest rates. Understanding swaps helps you better control costs and plan your trades more accurately.

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📊 EUR/USD: the market continues to ignore escalation

EUR/USD is gradually moving toward the 1.1800 area, despite rising geopolitical pressure and new statements around the Strait of Hormuz. Market reaction remains surprisingly calm, risk appetite is still present, and the dollar is not gaining a stable safe-haven advantage.

Investors are increasingly pricing in a scenario of de-escalation and a possible return to negotiations, which supports the euro.

➡️ An additional factor is the political situation in the US: inflation and fuel prices are becoming a critical issue ahead of elections.

The current situation supports further growth in EUR/USD. Pullbacks can be considered as opportunities to open long positions. The next key upside target is the 1.1800 area (upper boundary of the Kumo cloud on the daily timeframe).

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💡The dollar is gaining strength again

While the market is watching the negotiations between the United States and Iran, a classic reaction is taking place — a shift into safe-haven assets.
According to Reuters, the sides have indeed partially narrowed their differences during indirect contacts, but key disagreements over the nuclear program and control of uranium enrichment remain unresolved.

👉 In other words, dialogue exists, but clarity is still lacking.

At the same time, risks around the Strait of Hormuz are increasing, which is putting additional pressure on the oil market and fueling inflation expectations.

📊 Summary:

— uncertainty remains
— tensions persist
— the market is moving into protection

In such an environment, the dollar gains support as the main safe-haven asset. Until there is clarity, uncertainty remains the key driver of the market.

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📊 Weekly anomaly: GBP/JPY and a false impulse without continuation

One of the most notable episodes of this week occurred on GBP/JPY — a pair that often shows sharp and “uneven” movements.
The scenario looked quite standard: price approached a local resistance zone after an impulsive rise and started showing signs of a potential reversal.

📉 The initial logic was simple:

— strong upward move
— test of the resistance zone
— signs of momentum slowing
— expectation of a pullback

Against this background, short positions started to appear based on a classic reversal setup.
But then the market behaved differently.

📈 First, there was a sharp false breakout to the upside — a move without confirmation that wiped out short positions and took liquidity above the level. It looked like a typical “stop hunt”.

However, this was followed by neither continuation upward nor a full reversal downward.
Instead, price returned to the previous range and started consolidating, completely invalidating the idea of a directional move.

⚖️ Result of the move:

— short entries were premature
— stops were taken out on the impulse
— the market failed to trend in either direction
— the move turned into a sideways liquidity redistribution

GBP/JPY showed neither a reversal nor a continuation trend, but a classic “liquidity hunt”. First, the market creates an illusion of structure, then uses it to collect positions and return to balance.

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