Open Source Intel
ICYMI: Earlier this month, AFRICOM Commander Gen. Dagvin Anderson warned that al-Qaeda is reemerging as a major threat in Africa.
He said JNIM, al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate, had launched complex attacks across Mali and publicly declared its intent to seize Bamako.
“That should give people chills,” Anderson said, comparing the tactic to ISIS’s takeover of Mosul.
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ICYMI: Earlier this month, AFRICOM Commander Gen. Dagvin Anderson warned that al-Qaeda is reemerging as a major threat in Africa.
He said JNIM, al-Qaeda’s Sahel affiliate, had launched complex attacks across Mali and publicly declared its intent to seize Bamako.
“That should give people chills,” Anderson said, comparing the tactic to ISIS’s takeover of Mosul.
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Disclose.tv
NEW - WHO declares the epidemic of Ebola-Bundibgyo strain in Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, a PHEIC, public health emergency of international concern. https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2055980816010740130/photo/1
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NEW - WHO declares the epidemic of Ebola-Bundibgyo strain in Democratic Republic of the Congo and Uganda, a PHEIC, public health emergency of international concern. https://twitter.com/disclosetv/status/2055980816010740130/photo/1
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Open Source Intel
Israel established two covert military bases in Iraq's western desert, operating them intermittently for well over a year before the June 2025 war with Iran, the New York Times reports. The bases were set up to support Israeli military operations during the 12-day conflict.
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Israel established two covert military bases in Iraq's western desert, operating them intermittently for well over a year before the June 2025 war with Iran, the New York Times reports. The bases were set up to support Israeli military operations during the 12-day conflict.
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Visioner
🇺🇸🇮🇷 US vs Iranian demands, as per Fars News:
US demands:
- No compensation for war damages,
- Transfer of Iran's 400kg uranium to the US,
- Iran to maintain just a single nuclear facility in the entire country,
- No release of Iran's frozen assets,
- Ceasefire conditional on the success of US-Iran talks, a permanent ceasefire is not guaranteed.
Iranian demands:
- Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon,
- Lifting of all sanctions on Iran,
- Release of all frozen assets tied to the Iranian state,
- War damages compensation,
- Recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 US vs Iranian demands, as per Fars News:
US demands:
- No compensation for war damages,
- Transfer of Iran's 400kg uranium to the US,
- Iran to maintain just a single nuclear facility in the entire country,
- No release of Iran's frozen assets,
- Ceasefire conditional on the success of US-Iran talks, a permanent ceasefire is not guaranteed.
Iranian demands:
- Ceasefire on all fronts, including Lebanon,
- Lifting of all sanctions on Iran,
- Release of all frozen assets tied to the Iranian state,
- War damages compensation,
- Recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz.
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Open Source Intel
Abu Dhabi, drone strike near the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant.
So the question is, who launched the drone?
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Abu Dhabi, drone strike near the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant.
So the question is, who launched the drone?
BREAKING: UAE: A drone strike sparked a fire in an electrical generator outside the secured perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhafra region. Officials said no injuries were reported and radiation levels remained normal. tweet
X (formerly Twitter)
Open Source Intel (@Osint613) on X
BREAKING: UAE: A drone strike sparked a fire in an electrical generator outside the secured perimeter of the Barakah Nuclear Power Plant in Abu Dhabi’s Al Dhafra region. Officials said no injuries were reported and radiation levels remained normal.
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Visioner
🇮🇱🇱🇧 The aftermath of Israeli strikes on the town Jabchit, southern Lebanon. https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2055986123684417991/video/1
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🇮🇱🇱🇧 The aftermath of Israeli strikes on the town Jabchit, southern Lebanon. https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2055986123684417991/video/1
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Visioner
🇮🇷🇦🇪 Satellite images of the damage from the May 6 attack on facilities in Fujairah, UAE
It's reported that one of the two terminals is out of action https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2055986641013977399/video/1
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🇮🇷🇦🇪 Satellite images of the damage from the May 6 attack on facilities in Fujairah, UAE
It's reported that one of the two terminals is out of action https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2055986641013977399/video/1
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Open Source Intel
Trump: “Bad Congressman Tom Massie voted against Tax Cuts, the Border Wall, our Military and Law Enforcement. Actually, he voted against almost everything that is good. The Worst Republican Congressman in History. Kentucky, vote the bum out on Tuesday. We can’t live with this troublemaker for another two years. He is a true negative force!!! President DJT”
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Trump: “Bad Congressman Tom Massie voted against Tax Cuts, the Border Wall, our Military and Law Enforcement. Actually, he voted against almost everything that is good. The Worst Republican Congressman in History. Kentucky, vote the bum out on Tuesday. We can’t live with this troublemaker for another two years. He is a true negative force!!! President DJT”
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Open Source Intel
Advisers within Trump's inner circle are concerned the China summit's most consequential result could be heightening the probability that Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan before 2030. - Axios https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2055987002030379123/photo/1
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Advisers within Trump's inner circle are concerned the China summit's most consequential result could be heightening the probability that Xi Jinping moves on Taiwan before 2030. - Axios https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2055987002030379123/photo/1
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Open Source Intel
Iranian media publishing what it says are Trump's five conditions for a deal: no compensation, enriched uranium handed to the U.S., one nuclear facility allowed, less than 25% of frozen assets freed, and ceasefire tied to negotiations.
Iran's counter-demands: full ceasefire first, sanctions lifted, all frozen funds released, war damages paid, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz recognized.
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Iranian media publishing what it says are Trump's five conditions for a deal: no compensation, enriched uranium handed to the U.S., one nuclear facility allowed, less than 25% of frozen assets freed, and ceasefire tied to negotiations.
Iran's counter-demands: full ceasefire first, sanctions lifted, all frozen funds released, war damages paid, and sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz recognized.
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Visioner
❗️ 🇷🇺 Su-57 with a external targeting pod https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2055988685728862212/video/1
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❗️ 🇷🇺 Su-57 with a external targeting pod https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2055988685728862212/video/1
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OSINT
Video
Visioner
🇺🇦💪 The SBU reports on a joint operation conducted together with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during which strikes were carried out on military-industrial complex factories and several oil facilities in the Moscow region, as well as on the Belbek airbase located in Crimea.
🗣️"The SBU and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue high-precision special operations aimed at destroying the enemy's military resources," said the head of the SBU, Evhen Khmar.
Damaged in the Moscow region:
• The "Angstrem" factory, which supplies semiconductors to Russia's military-industrial complex and is under U.S. sanctions;
• Moscow oil refinery;
• "Solnechnogorskaya" oil pumping station;
• "Volodarskoye" oil pumping station.
Damaged in temporarily occupied Crimea:
• The "Pantsir-S2" anti-aircraft missile system;
• Radar hangar of the S-400 system;
• Control system of the "Orion" type drone and the ground control station of the "Forpost";
• Data transmission point "land–air";
• Belbek dispatch tower and hangar.
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🇺🇦💪 The SBU reports on a joint operation conducted together with the Armed Forces of Ukraine, during which strikes were carried out on military-industrial complex factories and several oil facilities in the Moscow region, as well as on the Belbek airbase located in Crimea.
🗣️"The SBU and the Armed Forces of Ukraine will continue high-precision special operations aimed at destroying the enemy's military resources," said the head of the SBU, Evhen Khmar.
Damaged in the Moscow region:
• The "Angstrem" factory, which supplies semiconductors to Russia's military-industrial complex and is under U.S. sanctions;
• Moscow oil refinery;
• "Solnechnogorskaya" oil pumping station;
• "Volodarskoye" oil pumping station.
Damaged in temporarily occupied Crimea:
• The "Pantsir-S2" anti-aircraft missile system;
• Radar hangar of the S-400 system;
• Control system of the "Orion" type drone and the ground control station of the "Forpost";
• Data transmission point "land–air";
• Belbek dispatch tower and hangar.
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Open Source Intel
Fars reports: Iran is working to circumvent the U.S. maritime blockade through Pakistani land routes. A letter from Iran's Chamber of Commerce deputy, based on data from the Iranian embassy in Pakistan, flags the Karachi-to-Iran border corridor as an emerging workaround.
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Fars reports: Iran is working to circumvent the U.S. maritime blockade through Pakistani land routes. A letter from Iran's Chamber of Commerce deputy, based on data from the Iranian embassy in Pakistan, flags the Karachi-to-Iran border corridor as an emerging workaround.
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OSINT
Photo
Open Source Intel
Calm Before the Storm: Trump Signals Military Option as US Iran Talks Stall
Trump and Iran traded fresh warnings over the weekend. talks to turn the already fragile ceasefire into a broader settlement remain deadlocked over Tehran's nuclear stockpile, sanctions relief, and compensation demands.
Saturday afternoon (May 16), Trump posted an AI generated image on Truth Social showing himself alongside US and Iranian warships under dark skies. The caption: "It was the calm before the storm."
The post signaled military action is still on the table and fueled speculation Washington could resume strikes if diplomacy collapses.
The message landed with US and Iranian officials still far apart on terms for ending the conflict that began February 28. That's when joint US and Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear and military facilities, in what Washington described as an effort to cripple Tehran's ability to rapidly produce a nuclear weapon.
Iran's semi official Fars News Agency reported Washington's latest response rejected Tehran's war reparations demand and insisted Iran transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium out of the country. Fars also said the US refused Iran's request to release 25% of its frozen overseas assets.
The Wall Street Journal reported Tehran's counter offer: dilute part of its enriched uranium stockpile and transfer the rest to a third country, not directly to the US, with guarantees the material would be returned if Washington withdrew from the agreement.
Trump said earlier this month he'd accept a deal where Iran suspends enrichment for 20 years, but only if the commitment is "real" and verifiable.
Iran has publicly maintained that enrichment is non negotiable, even as officials signal flexibility over what to do with some of the existing stockpile.
In Iran, outlets are now publishing the five conditions Trump reportedly set for a deal:
1. Washington will not pay any compensation for damages caused to Iran
2. Iran's enriched uranium must be transferred to the US
3. Only one nuclear facility will be allowed to remain operational inside Iran
4. Less than a quarter of Iran's frozen assets will be released
5. A halt to fighting on all fronts is conditional on negotiations taking place
Against those, Iran has put forward it's own five "confidence conditions" for entering talks:
1. End the war on every front
2. Full lifting of sanctions
3. Release of all frozen Iranian funds
4. Compensation for damages caused by the war
5. Recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of Iran's parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said releasing blocked Iranian funds and lifting sanctions are prerequisites for any negotiations with Washington.
Compensation is the other major sticking point. Iranian officials want the US to help pay for damage inflicted during the war. Washington has flatly rejected that condition, per Fars.
The current ceasefire was brokered in part by Pakistan, after weeks of fighting. The war included US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian missile attacks on US bases in the Gulf, and sustained Israeli operations against military and infrastructure targets across Iran.
The ceasefire has largely held, but military movements haven't stopped. Open source analysts have tracked increased USAF C17 transport flights between Europe and the Middle East in recent days. The pattern looks similar to the buildup that preceded the February 28 strikes.
Tehran's rhetoric sharpened over the weekend.
Iranian Armed Forces spokesman General Abolfazl Shekarchi said any new US attack would bring "even harsher and more powerful blows."
Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, said if war resumed, Iran's enemies would suffer "far more damage than Iran."
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki also warned Bahrain against backing what he called an anti Iran move at t[...]
Calm Before the Storm: Trump Signals Military Option as US Iran Talks Stall
Trump and Iran traded fresh warnings over the weekend. talks to turn the already fragile ceasefire into a broader settlement remain deadlocked over Tehran's nuclear stockpile, sanctions relief, and compensation demands.
Saturday afternoon (May 16), Trump posted an AI generated image on Truth Social showing himself alongside US and Iranian warships under dark skies. The caption: "It was the calm before the storm."
The post signaled military action is still on the table and fueled speculation Washington could resume strikes if diplomacy collapses.
The message landed with US and Iranian officials still far apart on terms for ending the conflict that began February 28. That's when joint US and Israeli strikes hit Iranian nuclear and military facilities, in what Washington described as an effort to cripple Tehran's ability to rapidly produce a nuclear weapon.
Iran's semi official Fars News Agency reported Washington's latest response rejected Tehran's war reparations demand and insisted Iran transfer its stockpile of highly enriched uranium out of the country. Fars also said the US refused Iran's request to release 25% of its frozen overseas assets.
The Wall Street Journal reported Tehran's counter offer: dilute part of its enriched uranium stockpile and transfer the rest to a third country, not directly to the US, with guarantees the material would be returned if Washington withdrew from the agreement.
Trump said earlier this month he'd accept a deal where Iran suspends enrichment for 20 years, but only if the commitment is "real" and verifiable.
Iran has publicly maintained that enrichment is non negotiable, even as officials signal flexibility over what to do with some of the existing stockpile.
In Iran, outlets are now publishing the five conditions Trump reportedly set for a deal:
1. Washington will not pay any compensation for damages caused to Iran
2. Iran's enriched uranium must be transferred to the US
3. Only one nuclear facility will be allowed to remain operational inside Iran
4. Less than a quarter of Iran's frozen assets will be released
5. A halt to fighting on all fronts is conditional on negotiations taking place
Against those, Iran has put forward it's own five "confidence conditions" for entering talks:
1. End the war on every front
2. Full lifting of sanctions
3. Release of all frozen Iranian funds
4. Compensation for damages caused by the war
5. Recognition of Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
Alaeddin Boroujerdi, a member of Iran's parliament National Security and Foreign Policy Commission, said releasing blocked Iranian funds and lifting sanctions are prerequisites for any negotiations with Washington.
Compensation is the other major sticking point. Iranian officials want the US to help pay for damage inflicted during the war. Washington has flatly rejected that condition, per Fars.
The current ceasefire was brokered in part by Pakistan, after weeks of fighting. The war included US strikes on Iranian nuclear facilities, Iranian missile attacks on US bases in the Gulf, and sustained Israeli operations against military and infrastructure targets across Iran.
The ceasefire has largely held, but military movements haven't stopped. Open source analysts have tracked increased USAF C17 transport flights between Europe and the Middle East in recent days. The pattern looks similar to the buildup that preceded the February 28 strikes.
Tehran's rhetoric sharpened over the weekend.
Iranian Armed Forces spokesman General Abolfazl Shekarchi said any new US attack would bring "even harsher and more powerful blows."
Ebrahim Rezaei, spokesman for the Iranian Parliament's National Security Committee, said if war resumed, Iran's enemies would suffer "far more damage than Iran."
Former Iranian Foreign Minister Manouchehr Mottaki also warned Bahrain against backing what he called an anti Iran move at t[...]
OSINT
Open Source Intel Calm Before the Storm: Trump Signals Military Option as US Iran Talks Stall Trump and Iran traded fresh warnings over the weekend. talks to turn the already fragile ceasefire into a broader settlement remain deadlocked over Tehran's nuclear…
he United Nations, saying Manama was acting on Washington's behalf and would end up with the same result as previous failed efforts.
israeli officials have also signaled their patience is limited.
PM Netanyahu was scheduled to convene a limited security consultation at 18:00 local time Sunday (May 17) to review the state of negotiations and assess military options, according to Israeli officials..
Netanyahu has said any agreement must ensure Iran cannot retain the capacity to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program. Israeli officials have consistently argued that Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium has to be removed from the country as part of any lasting settlement.
Israeli security officials remain skeptical that Tehran is prepared to accept Washington's core demands.
Reuters has reported Washington's broader conditions include an end to Iranian support for regional proxy groups, and strict verification measures so Tehran can't quickly restore its nuclear activities.
Iran wants guarantees that sanctions will be lifted, oil exports can resume, and frozen assets held abroad will be released.
Inside Iran, the government continues to face significant domestic strain.
Internet monitoring group NetBlocks said Iran's nationwide internet blackout has now entered its 79th day, extending one of the longest communications shutdowns in the country's history and severely limiting independent reporting.
The prolonged disruption has made the conflict's economic impact hard to assess. Analysts say Iran's oil exports and financial system remain under heavy pressure.
According to our read, the widening gap between the two sides makes a renewed round of hostilities more likely then not, unless one party softens its core demands.
Any new escalation could begin with a US led maritime operation to ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade passes each day.
For now the diplomacy is still alive. But the balance is tilting toward more confrontation than compromise.
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israeli officials have also signaled their patience is limited.
PM Netanyahu was scheduled to convene a limited security consultation at 18:00 local time Sunday (May 17) to review the state of negotiations and assess military options, according to Israeli officials..
Netanyahu has said any agreement must ensure Iran cannot retain the capacity to rapidly rebuild its nuclear program. Israeli officials have consistently argued that Tehran's stockpile of highly enriched uranium has to be removed from the country as part of any lasting settlement.
Israeli security officials remain skeptical that Tehran is prepared to accept Washington's core demands.
Reuters has reported Washington's broader conditions include an end to Iranian support for regional proxy groups, and strict verification measures so Tehran can't quickly restore its nuclear activities.
Iran wants guarantees that sanctions will be lifted, oil exports can resume, and frozen assets held abroad will be released.
Inside Iran, the government continues to face significant domestic strain.
Internet monitoring group NetBlocks said Iran's nationwide internet blackout has now entered its 79th day, extending one of the longest communications shutdowns in the country's history and severely limiting independent reporting.
The prolonged disruption has made the conflict's economic impact hard to assess. Analysts say Iran's oil exports and financial system remain under heavy pressure.
According to our read, the widening gap between the two sides makes a renewed round of hostilities more likely then not, unless one party softens its core demands.
Any new escalation could begin with a US led maritime operation to ensure freedom of navigation through the Strait of Hormuz, where roughly 20% of the world's seaborne oil trade passes each day.
For now the diplomacy is still alive. But the balance is tilting toward more confrontation than compromise.
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