Open Source Intel
Iraq's Chief of Staff visited the Najaf desert site where a secret Israeli base reportedly operated during the Iran war, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Iraq's Defense Ministry says the area is now under full Iraqi military control and surveillance. The base went undetected by Iraqi forces for the duration of the conflict.
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Iraq's Chief of Staff visited the Najaf desert site where a secret Israeli base reportedly operated during the Iran war, according to a Wall Street Journal report. Iraq's Defense Ministry says the area is now under full Iraqi military control and surveillance. The base went undetected by Iraqi forces for the duration of the conflict.
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OSINTdefender
U.S. President Donald J. Trump is set to leave the White House soon for Joint Base Andrews for his trip to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2054257525327855727/video/1
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U.S. President Donald J. Trump is set to leave the White House soon for Joint Base Andrews for his trip to meet with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing, China. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2054257525327855727/video/1
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Visioner
🇫🇷🇰🇪 French President Emmanuel Macron in Nairobi:
Whoever ignores Africa today is mistaken and is giving up on their own future. Africa is here, present, and strong.
All those who do not work with the African continent, all those who continue to take resources from it to value them elsewhere, and all those who neglect them in situations of imbalance or distress—all of this simply hinders their own future.
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🇫🇷🇰🇪 French President Emmanuel Macron in Nairobi:
Whoever ignores Africa today is mistaken and is giving up on their own future. Africa is here, present, and strong.
All those who do not work with the African continent, all those who continue to take resources from it to value them elsewhere, and all those who neglect them in situations of imbalance or distress—all of this simply hinders their own future.
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Visioner
French President Emmanuel Macron vibing to "Jerusalema" at the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi. https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2054259889124323492/video/1
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French President Emmanuel Macron vibing to "Jerusalema" at the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi. https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2054259889124323492/video/1
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Open Source Intel
The UAE struck Iranian targets multiple times before and after the ceasefire, Bloomberg reports. One April 8 strike knocked an oil refinery on Lavan Island offline for months. Abu Dhabi also coordinated with Israel on an April 6 hit on the South Pars Petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh, which produces roughly 50% of Iran's petrochemicals, in response to Tehran's attack on the Borouge plant.
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The UAE struck Iranian targets multiple times before and after the ceasefire, Bloomberg reports. One April 8 strike knocked an oil refinery on Lavan Island offline for months. Abu Dhabi also coordinated with Israel on an April 6 hit on the South Pars Petrochemical complex in Asaluyeh, which produces roughly 50% of Iran's petrochemicals, in response to Tehran's attack on the Borouge plant.
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OSINTdefender
Speaking to press outside the White House, U.S. President Trump said both he and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, are looking forward to the meeting in Beijing, China and that he has spoken to President Xi in preparation for the meeting. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2054260265617588265/video/1
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Speaking to press outside the White House, U.S. President Trump said both he and his Chinese counterpart, Xi Jinping, are looking forward to the meeting in Beijing, China and that he has spoken to President Xi in preparation for the meeting. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2054260265617588265/video/1
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OSINT
Video
Nuno Felix
RT @BrettErickson28: Ok. Let’s set the record straight here once and for all…
Russia is NOT earning +$4B per month PURELY as a result of the sanctions being lifted. It’s ~$2.58B… but the TOTAL revenues they’re making now per month are up $9.42B per MONTH.
To be clear, I think the lifting of sanctions on Russia was/is insane, but let’s actually do our best to reasonably calculate the increased revenue flows as a result of the unsanctioning of Russian oil over the past 2 months.
The most useful data for this comes from Bloomberg and Reuters.
Prior to the start of the Iran War, and resultant unsanctioning of Russian energy products, Russian Urals was trading at a ~$10-$13 DISCOUNT to Brent Crude.
After GL-133, GL-134A, and GL-134B, we have seen Russian Urals trading at a $5-$15 PREMIUM to Brent Crude.
Assuming that ~240M barrels of Russian oil fell under GL-133, GL-134A, and GL-134B, and using the midpoints of each of these price points, we can calculate a swing of:
240M/2(months) x ($10 - -$11.50) = $2.58B per month in additional revenues.
Now, you can CERTAINLY argue that you should also include the rapid increase in global energy prices that resulted from the Iran War.
While May numbers obviously have not been released, we can reasonably estimate the oil and gas tax revenues due to the price allocated by the Russian economic ministry. This basis rose to $98.32, from previously $77/barrel in March. This is an increase of 27.69%.
Published data on Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues tell a damning story:
January: $5.3B
February: $5.83B
March: $8.32B
April: $11.53B
May (Projected): $14.72B
So while the cleanest data we can produce to examine the “sanctions premium” is $2.58B/month, the overall revenues Russia will receive from their oil and gas tax revenues will have increased a whopping 177.74%… in 4 months…
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RT @BrettErickson28: Ok. Let’s set the record straight here once and for all…
Russia is NOT earning +$4B per month PURELY as a result of the sanctions being lifted. It’s ~$2.58B… but the TOTAL revenues they’re making now per month are up $9.42B per MONTH.
To be clear, I think the lifting of sanctions on Russia was/is insane, but let’s actually do our best to reasonably calculate the increased revenue flows as a result of the unsanctioning of Russian oil over the past 2 months.
The most useful data for this comes from Bloomberg and Reuters.
Prior to the start of the Iran War, and resultant unsanctioning of Russian energy products, Russian Urals was trading at a ~$10-$13 DISCOUNT to Brent Crude.
After GL-133, GL-134A, and GL-134B, we have seen Russian Urals trading at a $5-$15 PREMIUM to Brent Crude.
Assuming that ~240M barrels of Russian oil fell under GL-133, GL-134A, and GL-134B, and using the midpoints of each of these price points, we can calculate a swing of:
240M/2(months) x ($10 - -$11.50) = $2.58B per month in additional revenues.
Now, you can CERTAINLY argue that you should also include the rapid increase in global energy prices that resulted from the Iran War.
While May numbers obviously have not been released, we can reasonably estimate the oil and gas tax revenues due to the price allocated by the Russian economic ministry. This basis rose to $98.32, from previously $77/barrel in March. This is an increase of 27.69%.
Published data on Russia’s oil and gas tax revenues tell a damning story:
January: $5.3B
February: $5.83B
March: $8.32B
April: $11.53B
May (Projected): $14.72B
So while the cleanest data we can produce to examine the “sanctions premium” is $2.58B/month, the overall revenues Russia will receive from their oil and gas tax revenues will have increased a whopping 177.74%… in 4 months…
HEGSETH: We know Russia is a nefarious actor and account for tha--
SHAHEEN: All evidence to the contrary. We're not accounting for that if we're giving Russia the opportunity to earn $4 billion a month by leaving sanctions lifted https://twitter.com/atrupar/status/2054236617070510224/video/1 tweet
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Visioner
🇮🇱🇱🇧 The Israeli military says it has killed around 15 Hezbollah operatives "who posed a threat to troops" in southern Lebanon over the past day.
Several rocket launchers were struck as well. https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2054260693247963411/video/1
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🇮🇱🇱🇧 The Israeli military says it has killed around 15 Hezbollah operatives "who posed a threat to troops" in southern Lebanon over the past day.
Several rocket launchers were struck as well. https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2054260693247963411/video/1
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Nuno Felix
RT @tom_nuttall: Bardella again makes it clear no love lost btwn the National Rally & the AfD in this FAZ interview. "Many AfD positions are incompatible with our principles...The AfD has a strong anti-European wing that demands EU withdrawal. That's not our position."
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/jordan-bardella-im-f-a-z-interview-ueber-migration-merz-und-die-afd-accg-200822399.html
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RT @tom_nuttall: Bardella again makes it clear no love lost btwn the National Rally & the AfD in this FAZ interview. "Many AfD positions are incompatible with our principles...The AfD has a strong anti-European wing that demands EU withdrawal. That's not our position."
https://www.faz.net/aktuell/politik/ausland/jordan-bardella-im-f-a-z-interview-ueber-migration-merz-und-die-afd-accg-200822399.html
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WarTranslated
Putin stated that today Russia conducted a launch of the "Sarmat" - the world’s most powerful missile system. The missile can travel up to 35,000 km and can be equipped with a nuclear warhead. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/2054261138376765825/video/1
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Putin stated that today Russia conducted a launch of the "Sarmat" - the world’s most powerful missile system. The missile can travel up to 35,000 km and can be equipped with a nuclear warhead. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/2054261138376765825/video/1
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OSINTdefender
Speaking to press outside the White House, U.S. President Donald J. Trump said that Chinese President Xi Jinping will come to the U.S. for a state visit later this year. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2054262380025057362/photo/1
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Speaking to press outside the White House, U.S. President Donald J. Trump said that Chinese President Xi Jinping will come to the U.S. for a state visit later this year. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2054262380025057362/photo/1
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Visioner
🇺🇸🇮🇷 Reporter: At what point are you done negotiating with Iran?
Trump: We're going to see what happens. We're only making a good deal.
I believe that one way or the other, it's going to be very good for the American people, and I think actually very good for the Iranian people.
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🇺🇸🇮🇷 Reporter: At what point are you done negotiating with Iran?
Trump: We're going to see what happens. We're only making a good deal.
I believe that one way or the other, it's going to be very good for the American people, and I think actually very good for the Iranian people.
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Visioner
🇺🇸🇵🇰🇮🇷 Reporter: Are you reconsidering the Pakistanis as mediators?
Trump: No, they are great. The field marshal and the prime minister of Pakistan have been absolutely great. https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2054262985216987518/video/1
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🇺🇸🇵🇰🇮🇷 Reporter: Are you reconsidering the Pakistanis as mediators?
Trump: No, they are great. The field marshal and the prime minister of Pakistan have been absolutely great. https://twitter.com/visionergeo/status/2054262985216987518/video/1
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OSINTdefender
U.S. President Donald J. Trump had two key messages for embattled UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer: Open up oil in the North Sea and deal with the UK’s immigration problem. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2054263006486241490/photo/1
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U.S. President Donald J. Trump had two key messages for embattled UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer: Open up oil in the North Sea and deal with the UK’s immigration problem. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2054263006486241490/photo/1
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Visioner
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Reporter: What is your message to President Xi as it relates to the Iran war?
Trump: I think number one, we're going to have a long talk about it. I think he's been relatively good, to be honest with you. We've had no problem. And he's been a friend of mine.
I think you're going to see that good things are going to happen. This is going to be a very exciting trip.
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🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Reporter: What is your message to President Xi as it relates to the Iran war?
Trump: I think number one, we're going to have a long talk about it. I think he's been relatively good, to be honest with you. We've had no problem. And he's been a friend of mine.
I think you're going to see that good things are going to happen. This is going to be a very exciting trip.
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Visioner
🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Reporter: Do you think Xi needs to intervene at all with the Iranians? Do you think he can help in any way?
Trump: I don't think we need any help with Iran. We'll win it one way or the other. We'll win it peacefully or otherwise. Every single element of their war machine is gone.
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🇺🇸🇨🇳🇮🇷 Reporter: Do you think Xi needs to intervene at all with the Iranians? Do you think he can help in any way?
Trump: I don't think we need any help with Iran. We'll win it one way or the other. We'll win it peacefully or otherwise. Every single element of their war machine is gone.
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