Nuno Felix
This is true: Federalism is built on the work of everyone who wants it as a future. After its built and cemented we can robustly argue all that divides us in our political beliefs and interests

My dream is for European Federalism to become so pervasive in our general discourse that it gets entirely depoliticized and turns into an unquestioned consensus upon which all actual politics builds; like happened with the idea of democracy or the nation state.

I believe nobody should be denied the right to advocate for a more federal Europe, as long as they do it in good faith. That includes the political left, right and center; religious groups, business interests, worker collectives, political radicals and anything else you can think of.

It's a project that is far too big and important to allow it to become a partisan issue and I will always be thrilled to support anyone who is willing to throw their weight behind the federalist project, independent of who they are or where they come from. - Europe Defender 🇪🇺🇺🇦
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Nuno Felix
RT @BrettErickson28: Today, I will be providing and examining four timelines from four separate sources on the timeline until Iran is forced to shut-in their oil wells. Each source has very different viewpoints... but one clear timeline.

We'll start with myself. I have been a very vocal counterweight to the infamous 13 day timeline. This will not come as a shock to you. However, the reality is... at least on this? I've been right. A broken clock...

Per my own assessment, I have set forth the following estimate:
Current Length of Blockade: 26 Days
Available On Shore Storage: 5-15 Days
Total Tanker Storage: 21-35 Days
Additional Extension via Trucking, Un-Mothballing, Rail (Conservatively): 7 Days
Total BEST CASE Estimated Timeline: 57-81 Days

Now, lets examine the timeline of Miad Maleki from Foundation For Defense of Democracies, which was what he put forth to Fox News during a recent Bret Baier Special Report. It will come as no surprise that Miad and I have heavily disagreed on this exact topic, which is why I find including his updated assessment to be particularly damning:

"Iran has about 13 days worth of storage onshore available, and they have around 15-18 tankers in the Persian Gulf that will take about 30-45 days to fill up."

This statement was delivered to Fox News from Miad on May 4th. I have updated the timeline to reflect today, May 9th:

Current Length of Blockade: 26 Days
Available On Shore Storage: 10 Days
Available Tanker Storage: 27-42 Days
Total Timeline: 64-79 Days

Again, it should be reiterated that my timeline, published on May 2nd, falls almost perfectly in line with Miad's delivered on May 4th. 57-81 days, 64-79 days.
Total timeline from today:
Myself: 31-55 days
Miad: 38-53 days

Lastly, I want to present reporting from @farnazfassihi at The New York Times, which cites two sources: Homayoun Falakshahi, Head of Oil Analysis at Kpler, and an anonymous Iranian oil official.

Per reporting from Farnaz, Falakshahi assesses a timeline of 25-30 days from May 6th. Updated for today, that is a remaining timeline of 22-27 days. This is the most aggressively optimistic of the four.

The unnamed Iranian oil official puts the remaining timeline at 40-45 days. Updated for today, 37-42 days.

Taken together, the timelines are as follows:
Kpler: 22-27 Days Remaining
Brett Erickson: 31-55 Days Remaining
Miad Maleki: 38-53 Days Remaining
Iranian Oil Official: 37-42 Days Remaining
Average between the four: 32-44 Days Remaining
Total Average Projected Timeline from Blockade Imposition to Shut-In: 58-70 Days
(... I did pretty good)

I will add this one last, and very large caveat: Iran still has substantial options to further extend this timeline. Dumping oil, burning oil, mass-infiltrating the blockade, and other creative measures that desperate times call for as this timeline begins to lessen. With that said... Iran has twice shut-in previously in 2012 and 2019, and did so without "exploding their oil infrastructure".
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OSINTdefender
Russia’s Victory Day parade took place earlier today without a hitch but absent of armored vehicles and other mobile platforms. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2053134354700779760/video/1
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WarMonitor
RT @covie_93: Trying to get you to focus on the aliens so you forget about the predators.
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WarMonitor
Probably got stood up... again.

Both Rubio and Trump said they expected Iran to respond to their latest peace proposal by the end of the day yesterday. Did Iran ghost them? There’s been no word of a response today - Aaron Rupar
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WarTranslated
Ukraine destroyed 15 air defense targets in 9 days of May including 6 radars and 9 missile systems, DroneBomber reports. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/2053140146007011621/photo/1
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WarMonitor
RT @ProjectLincoln: As gas prices skyrocket and some are resorting to public transit to get to and from work.... the Transportation Secretary took a road trip to film a reality tv show... during a government shutdown. https://twitter.com/ProjectLincoln/status/2053135503218651180/video/1
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WarTranslated
Zelensky is ready to meet Putin anywhere but not in Moscow because it's the capital of the aggressor state, advisor Serhiy Leshchenko says.

Russia and Ukraine are working on prisoner exchange lists today and may start swapping if they agree.

🤡 Russia and US held two-day ceasefire talks for Victory Day. Putin is ready to receive Zelensky in Moscow, Ushakov claims. - WarTranslated
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WarTranslated
Russian activists crashed Barcelona's Immortal Regiment march with "No to Putin's fascism" signs. After getting attacked, they blocked the parade and forced it to end early. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/2053145830048084285/video/1
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WarMonitor
Hantavirus was identified decades before Covid-19 even existed.

Fun fact: Hantavirus is literally a side effect of the covid 19 shots! - Michelle LA🇨🇦
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WarTranslated
The Alabuga drone factory expanded by 340 hectares in one year with 19 air defense towers and a new Pantsir system, Radio Svoboda reports. https://twitter.com/wartranslated/status/2053154071691800680/video/1
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OSINTtechnical
Russia is shipping drone components and other goods to Iran via the Caspian Sea, bypassing the US blockade -US officials to the NYT https://twitter.com/Osinttechnical/status/2053157185384026385/photo/1
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WarMonitor
Trump keeps sending negotiators while threatening Iran if no deal is reached, while Iran’s repeated delays and “no-shows” seem aimed at showing they think Trump wants the deal more than they do.

The bigger issue is credibility. Tehran has watched Trump back away from threats several times already, so they likely see this more as politics than a real ultimatum. He may launch a limited strike now and then to save face, but Iran clearly doesn’t seem intimidated or to be taking his threats seriously.

Trump: I expect to receive a response from Iran very soon. - EndGameWW3 🇺🇸
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WarMonitor
A CDC official said the federal government does not plan to quarantine the repatriated American cruise ship passengers when they arrive in Nebraska. (ABC) https://twitter.com/TheWarMonitor/status/2053162963180175732/photo/1
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Nuno Felix
This is absolutely amazing post on Europe day!

Today is Europe Day.
So here is a thread about Europe’s most underrated achievement:
Not that it became perfect.
But that it turned centuries of war, borders and rival empires into one of the most functional civilizational networks on Earth.
A lot of Europe’s miracles became boring.
🧵 - MagellanQuest 🇪🇺/acc
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OSINTdefender
According to the New York Times, citing officials with knowledge on the matter, in addition to shipments of drone components to Iran, via the Caspian Sea, Russia is shipping additional goods to Iran that would normally be delivered via the Strait of Hormuz. The increase in trans-Caspian trade between the two nations is due to two main factors, Ukrainian operations against shipping in the Black Sea and the more recent U.S. blockade of vessels traveling to and from Iranian ports.
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Nuno Felix
RT @KampfmitKette: Hab beide lieb 🫶 https://twitter.com/KampfmitKette/status/2053052984251068637/photo/1
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OSINTdefender
Following on from the previous post, we covered reports from the Financial Times back in March when news that Russia was sending drone components to Iran broke.

According to the Financial Times, citing officials briefed on the matter, Russia is preparing to send a phased shipment of drones, medicine, and food to its embattled ally Iran. The deliveries began in early March and were in the process of being completed. https://twitter.com/sentdefender/status/2036933661891690993/photo/1 - OSINTdefender
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Nuno Felix
Say the author of that banger: “13 days to total collapse” on day 26…..

Intelligence leaks of national security information are political warfare by unelected bureaucrats. I'm very confident based on my first-hand experience, that the leaks on Iran cherry picks a partial assessment that fits whatever narrative the leaker wants to convey, and buries the confidence caveats.

People who leak classified intelligence are not civil servants, they are politically motivated operatives selectively feeding reporters partial assessments. - Miad Maleki
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OSINTdefender
More context, including Israel’s strikes on the key Iranian Caspian Sea port of Bandar Anzali during joint U.S.-Israeli combat operations against Iran.

This is notable, as earlier today, news broke that Israel struck a key node for Russo-Iranian trade networks, the Bandar Anzali port on the Caspian Sea, striking C2 hubs, warships, and shipyard infrastructure.

Additionally, to those who think that Russia sending drones back to Iran is foolish due to Iran being the original producer, Russia has onshored production for much of its Shahed supply during the ongoing Russo-Ukrainian War, and such measures have allowed them to produce and field Shaheds at scale in a LSCO environment. - John M. Larrier
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Michael A. Horowitz
RT @JavierBlas: Notable shipping movement in the Strait of Hormuz.

Qatar is sending a laden LNG tanker (if sucesfull, it would be 1st crossing for Qatar since the start of the war).

Crucially, the Al Kharaitiyat tanker is following the new Iranian shipping lanes. Her destination is Pakistan. https://twitter.com/JavierBlas/status/2053134189701079312/photo/1
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