Nuno Felix
This is important Sunday reading. A mammoth piece on all the issues regarding oil shut ins and the blockade of Hormuz. Its bad. Read folks.

A new MONSTER article by Bloomberg today addresses the hot-button debate surrounding Iran's oil well shut-ins, but more importantly, the TIMELINE until these shut-ins occur.

This piece brings together just an absolutely all-star team of editors and reporters.

@BenBartenstein is, in my opinion, the GOAT when it comes to Iranian sanctions evasion.

@CGorrivan was behind the viral article that utilized Kpler data to show a timeline of at least 12-22 days before Iran is forced to shut-in.

@soonweilun has been on an absolute publishing TEAR throughout this conflict. Pretty sure he doesn't sleep.

@pat_syk is the Middle East's Breaking News Editor... that says it all. (Sorry Anthony Di Paola, I can't find your X)

In this piece, myself, @miadmaleki, and @claire_jungman help to address and frame the debate surrounding the timeline until Iran is forced to shut-in their oil wells, and some of the key aspects as it relates to both the ability for the Iranian regime to extend this timeline, and also some of the core constraints that may make this time different than previous shut-ins by Iran.

As I told Bloomberg today:

“Washington is operating on a status-quo assumption that Iran will sit idly by and absorb this pressure and move toward collapse on a predictable timeline. That fundamentally misunderstands how regimes behave under sustained economic warfare. They do not fold, they adapt.”

Again, I want to reiterate:

While Miad and I may have our differences as it relates to the timeline and conclusions as it pertains to the efficacy of the U.S. blockade of Iran, Miad IS incredibly smart, incredibly well-researched, and I have the utmost respect for his work despite disagreement on the end conclusion and timeline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-02/iran-juggles-oil-cuts-and-storage-strain-to-resist-us-blockade - Brett Erickson
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Open Source Intel
PM Netanyahu says Israel is moving ahead with a major military buildup:

▪️ 2 new squadrons of F-35 Lightning II and F-15IA aircraft

▪️ ₪350B (~$110B) plan to scale domestic munitions production over 10 years

▪️ Push for locally built “blue and white” defense systems

▪️ New initiative focused on countering drone threats
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Open Source Intel
Iran's oil storage is maxed out and tanker exports are frozen under the U.S. naval blockade. The regime's solution: hundreds of pickup trucks smuggling subsidized fuel into Pakistan at the Pir Kor border crossing. The government isn't stopping them. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050920359789047814/video/1
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Nuno Felix
RT @BrettErickson28: Appreciate you taking the time to share this. Bloomberg really pulled out their all-star team on this one. Some of THE most educated people in the world on Iran. Ben Bartenstein, in particular, has singlehandedly devastated the Iranian shadow fleet network tied to Shamkhani, and has personally uncovered hundreds of millions of assets owned by Mojtaba inside the United Kingdom. Myself, as well as best-in-class experts (which to clarify, I do not consider myself), were able to elucidate the flaws in the current economic warfare strategy. To Bloomberg's credit, they also brought in Miad Maleki, who is a key advocate for the implementation of the blockade and economic warfare campaign, to offer a counter-argument, which I feel is important as well.
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Open Source Intel
Trump on the remaining 15% of Iran's missile-making capabilities:

"I'd like to eliminate it... It'd be a start for them to build up again, and yeah, I would like to eliminate it." https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050921257869136026/video/1
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Open Source Intel
PM Netanyahu: Israel will develop its own “groundbreaking” aircraft – a future “game-changer”

“…At the same time, we will develop ‘blue-and-white’ groundbreaking aircraft. This will change the entire picture.”
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Open Source Intel
IDF says 401st Brigade forces discovered over 100 Hezbollah weapons caches in southern Lebanon in the past week. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050923558382031030/video/1
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Nuno Felix
Its collapse week by Brexit media !!!

We’re now four weeks out from an insane energy shock. It will likely lead to the collapse of several European governments. 🛢️⏳ https://twitter.com/philippilk/status/2050536628607713347/photo/1 - Philip Pilkington
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Open Source Intel
U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio is expected to travel to Italy this week to meet with Pope Leo, according to a Vatican source. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050927004006924478/photo/1
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Open Source Intel
IDF: Israeli Air Force eliminated Hezbollah operatives moving weapons near IDF forces in Lebanon. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050927742590312573/video/1
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Open Source Intel
Ali Akbar Velayati, advisor to Iran's Supreme Leader:

"Trump's nonsense and provocative behavior cannot obscure the existing geopolitical reality. The withdrawal of American forces from Germany, the weakening of NATO, and the recurring technical malfunctions in U.S. Navy vessels are signs of the disintegration of the White House's illusion."
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Open Source Intel
Todd Blanche:

President Trump is doing something that the past 5 presidents did not do. They promised to do it. They promised, 'We'll stop Iran. Iran can never have a nuclear weapon.' President Trump is DOING what others have promised, but failed to do." https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050931033785188822/video/1
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Open Source Intel
Reuters: Iran’s proposal clashes with U.S. demands, as Tehran wants to delay nuclear talks while Washington insists Iran first give up its 400 kg+ of highly enriched uranium to end the war. Iran instead prioritizes reopening the Strait of Hormuz and addressing broader issues before nuclear negotiations.

The 14 point proposal includes lifting the blockade and sanctions, removing U.S. forces from the region, releasing frozen assets, compensation payments, ending fighting across all fronts including Lebanon, and creating a new mechanism for the strait. Iran frames delaying nuclear talks as a way to ease negotiations, while the U.S. faces pressure as the strait disruption impacts about 20% of global oil and gas flows and drives up prices.
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WarTranslated
It’s very difficult to "defend Russia" by invading a neighboring country, killing everyone there, and destroying cities. A Russian man is complaining that those "evil and scary" Ukrainians are finishing off the miserable Russians. Right there in their own country, on their own land. So, maybe you shouldn't have invaded them in the first place?
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Open Source Intel
IDF: 205th Brigade wraps northern Gaza operation. Eight tunnels destroyed, dozens of terrorists killed. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050935239220899969/video/1
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Open Source Intel
Footage: A Hezbollah explosive drone crashed intact near an IDF unit in the buffer zone in Lebanon today and did not detonate.

The drone carried an optical fiber spool for direct control by the operator, an RPG warhead payload, and a battery pack. It landed near the force, no injuries reported. (Kan 11)
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Disclose.tv
NEW - Trump admin brings nearly 165 U.S. onshore wind projects to a halt citing national security concerns — FT
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Open Source Intel
An Israeli court in Ashkelon has extended the detention of two flotilla activists by two days following their interception by the navy, with authorities citing security-related suspicions including aiding the enemy and links to a terrorist group.

No formal charges have been filed, while legal proceedings continue.

Two flotilla operatives arrested en route to Gaza have arrived in Israel. They will be interrogated for ties to a terrorist organization and illegal activity.

- Israeli Ministry of Foreign Affairs. - Open Source Intel
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