Open Source Intel
Kuwait exported no crude oil in April 2026, marking the first month of zero exports since the end of Gulf War I.
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Open Source Intel
CENTCOM:

U.S. forces continue to patrol international waters and enforce the ongoing naval blockade against Iran. As of now, 45 commercial vessels have been directed to turn around or return to port to ensure compliance. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050908902510784775/video/1
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Open Source Intel
PM Netanyahu: Our pilots can reach any place in Iran's skies
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Open Source Intel
Israeli PM Netanyahu:

"Israel is stronger than ever, and must always remain far stronger than our enemies.

I hold to two principles: growing stronger and independence.

On growing stronger, we are purchasing two squadrons of advanced aircraft: F-35s and F-15IAs. These reinforce Israel's overwhelming air superiority, proven in Operation 'Lion's Den' and now in 'Lion's Roar.'

Our pilots can reach anywhere in Iranian skies, and they are ready to do so if asked. We have incredible aircraft and outstanding pilots.

On independence, I have directed investment in domestic munitions production. Over the next decade, we will add 350 billion shekels to the defense budget to produce these munitions domestically and reduce dependence on foreign supply. Alongside this, we will develop cutting-edge 'blue and white' aircraft. This will change the picture entirely.

On drones: weeks ago I ordered a special project to counter the drone threat. Today I will be briefed on progress. It will take time, but we are working on it.

We will continue to ensure Israel's superiority on every front."
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Open Source Intel
President Trump on the possibility of renewed strikes on Iran: “This is an option that could happen.”
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Open Source Intel
Orlando International Airport after Spirit Airlines shuts down operations. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050912045134917924/video/1
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Open Source Intel
CENTCOM says they have redirected at least 48 Iranian linked ships in and out of the Hormuz so far
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WarTranslated
According to information from monitoring channels, all reservoirs with a volume of 50,000 m³ each were destroyed on the territory of the "Perm" linear production and dispatch station. Each reservoir contained approximately 314,000 barrels of oil or petroleum products. Additionally, a significant portion of the technological pipelines at the station burned out due to the oil spill. The technological process at the station has been disabled for an indefinite period.
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Open Source Intel
Secretary of State Rubio DJing at a family wedding.

@danscavino https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050914301729214607/video/1
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Open Source Intel
REPORTER: "Why is the US removing troops from Germany?"

PRESIDENT TRUMP: "We're going to cut way down, and we're cutting a lot further than 5,000." https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050914919587959097/video/1
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OSINTdefender
Two U.S. service members have been reported missing while participating in exercise African Lion 2026 in Morocco, according to a release from U.S. Africa Command. The service members were last known to be in the area of Cap Draa Training Area, near the city of Tan Tan, Morocco when they were reported missing yesterday. U.S. & allied assets immediately launched a multi domain search that is still ongoing. An investigation into the circumstances surrounding this incident is ongoing.
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Open Source Intel
Hezbollah published footage claiming to show the downing of an IDF Hermes 450 drone this week. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050916051353739701/video/1
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Open Source Intel
IRGC threatens that the Strait of Hormuz will become a “graveyard” for U.S. “pirates.” https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050917091708969315/photo/1
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Open Source Intel
NEW 🔴

AFRICOM: Two U.S. service members participating in African Lion 2026 are reported missing near the Cap Draa Training Area, near the city of Tan Tan, Morocco, May 2, 2026.
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Nuno Felix
This is important Sunday reading. A mammoth piece on all the issues regarding oil shut ins and the blockade of Hormuz. Its bad. Read folks.

A new MONSTER article by Bloomberg today addresses the hot-button debate surrounding Iran's oil well shut-ins, but more importantly, the TIMELINE until these shut-ins occur.

This piece brings together just an absolutely all-star team of editors and reporters.

@BenBartenstein is, in my opinion, the GOAT when it comes to Iranian sanctions evasion.

@CGorrivan was behind the viral article that utilized Kpler data to show a timeline of at least 12-22 days before Iran is forced to shut-in.

@soonweilun has been on an absolute publishing TEAR throughout this conflict. Pretty sure he doesn't sleep.

@pat_syk is the Middle East's Breaking News Editor... that says it all. (Sorry Anthony Di Paola, I can't find your X)

In this piece, myself, @miadmaleki, and @claire_jungman help to address and frame the debate surrounding the timeline until Iran is forced to shut-in their oil wells, and some of the key aspects as it relates to both the ability for the Iranian regime to extend this timeline, and also some of the core constraints that may make this time different than previous shut-ins by Iran.

As I told Bloomberg today:

“Washington is operating on a status-quo assumption that Iran will sit idly by and absorb this pressure and move toward collapse on a predictable timeline. That fundamentally misunderstands how regimes behave under sustained economic warfare. They do not fold, they adapt.”

Again, I want to reiterate:

While Miad and I may have our differences as it relates to the timeline and conclusions as it pertains to the efficacy of the U.S. blockade of Iran, Miad IS incredibly smart, incredibly well-researched, and I have the utmost respect for his work despite disagreement on the end conclusion and timeline.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-02/iran-juggles-oil-cuts-and-storage-strain-to-resist-us-blockade - Brett Erickson
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Open Source Intel
PM Netanyahu says Israel is moving ahead with a major military buildup:

▪️ 2 new squadrons of F-35 Lightning II and F-15IA aircraft

▪️ ₪350B (~$110B) plan to scale domestic munitions production over 10 years

▪️ Push for locally built “blue and white” defense systems

▪️ New initiative focused on countering drone threats
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Open Source Intel
Iran's oil storage is maxed out and tanker exports are frozen under the U.S. naval blockade. The regime's solution: hundreds of pickup trucks smuggling subsidized fuel into Pakistan at the Pir Kor border crossing. The government isn't stopping them. https://twitter.com/Osint613/status/2050920359789047814/video/1
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Nuno Felix
RT @BrettErickson28: Appreciate you taking the time to share this. Bloomberg really pulled out their all-star team on this one. Some of THE most educated people in the world on Iran. Ben Bartenstein, in particular, has singlehandedly devastated the Iranian shadow fleet network tied to Shamkhani, and has personally uncovered hundreds of millions of assets owned by Mojtaba inside the United Kingdom. Myself, as well as best-in-class experts (which to clarify, I do not consider myself), were able to elucidate the flaws in the current economic warfare strategy. To Bloomberg's credit, they also brought in Miad Maleki, who is a key advocate for the implementation of the blockade and economic warfare campaign, to offer a counter-argument, which I feel is important as well.
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