Not a trader ENG
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Technical Analyst

The main rule: Safety.
The primary goal is to preserve and, if possible, to earn.

https://t.me/notatraderengchat - chat

Not financial advice

DM: @exerato
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In my opinion, many still don’t fully understand why most altcoins are struggling right now, and why almost nothing is happening in the majority of projects.

The reason is simple and not a mystery. If we set aside the majors (which have their own dynamics and indeed might be influenced by the so-called "invisible hand"), the rest of the market consists of hundreds and thousands of participants, founders, and teams, not connected with each other, but rather competing. Like everyone else, they focus on what’s happening with BTC and are waiting for favorable market conditions.

They also fully understand that any marketing efforts and budget injections only make sense and have lasting impact with development potential that the market can support, but only when BTC is strong and stable.

As soon as that happens, we will witness how selected projects with strong teams, which seemed lifeless just yesterday, will suddenly turn into pump machines at the snap of a finger.
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EIGHT ETFs sold BTC worth hundreds of MILLIONS of dollars in the past 48 hours.

Except for BlackRock.

BlackRock sold 0.

That’s who you need to watch. That’s where the β€œbig families” are grazing πŸ’°
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πŸ” XO:

$BTC ...

3 times price has traded below the yearly mid level without any real continuation lower...

Daily and weekly stochs at the lows..

50/52k demand zone holding up...

Sentiment fairly bearish into support...
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πŸ‘€ North Korean hacker group has developed a new method to steal funds from cryptocurrency wallets. They are using malware capable of recognizing seed phrases even from photos or images stored on your device.

❗️ What to do? Never store your seed phrases as pictures or photos on your phone, even in protected folders.

Not your keys, not your coins
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🐹 Hamster Kombat x Binance

Trading starts on September 26, 2024, at 12:00 (UTC)

β€’ Token name: Hamster Kombat (#HMSTR)
β€’ Total token supply: 100,000,000,000 HMSTR

Hamster Kombat $HMSTR has been added to Binance Launchpool and Super Earn (just like TON)!
β€’ Launchpool rewards: 3,000,000,000 HMSTR (3.00% of the total supply)

Right after the tokenomics announcement, the price on the pre-market took a diveβ€”congrats to everyone who shorted. So, how many tokens do you have? πŸ’°
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πŸ€‘ Lost Dogs or how FOMO is knocking at the door!

The first season of our beloved pups has come to an end. 43 days ago, Lost Dogs, a game created in collaboration with Notcoin, was launched. It’s a simple yet engaging game with straightforward mechanics: every day, you choose a card and place your bet on one of them.

The game consisted of 42 rounds β€” one round per day. I won 24 out of 42 rounds, giving me a win rate of around 58%. Considering the 33% chance of winning with three card choices, I’m still in profit with $NOT and even made it into the top 100 players for $WOOF.

Is this a casino? No. With a thoughtful approach, analyzing clues, reviewing their impact on previous rounds, and understanding the crowd’s mindset, you can win more than 50% of the time. I’ve regularly demonstrated this in the chat.

Most of the time, it was easy to identify the underdog or the favorite card. With proper risk management, you could avoid losing $NOT while accumulating $WOOF. Sometimes, I even placed bets on two cards at once, especially in the later rounds when the outcomes were harder to predict. It’s like telling the hut, β€œTurn to me frontwards and turn to the forest backwards.” Multipliers played a key role in boosting the winnings.

The most important thing to note is that the Lost Dogs team has announced that 85% of the total $WOOF supply (8 billion tokens) has already been mined. The total supply is about 9.41 billion, and the remaining 15% will be distributed through various events over the next month. For comparison, $WOOF has just 10 billion tokens (rounded), which is 55 times less than $DOGS (whose market cap peaked at $840 million!).

Now, I'm curious to see what utility the team will come up with for $WOOF, and what their plans are for the future. Of course, I’m looking forward to listings on major exchanges, including Binance. Even with a minimum market cap of $100 million (which seems pretty achievable for this project), the price of 1 $WOOF token would be around $0.01. I know people who farmed over 10 million $WOOF, which could bring them over $100,000 in profit. If you missed out, you can only watch as opportunities shoot to the moon!

How’s your farming going? How many $WOOF have you gathered? Dog season LFG 😑
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🐢 Will $DOGS Repeat $NOT's Pump?

Finally, even if it's on the back of BTC's rise to $60,000, DOGS are starting to show strength.

After a long period of consecutive lower highs (LH) and lower lows (LL), there's been a trend reversal: higher lows (HL) and higher highs (HH) have formed. Additionally, the price has broken through the zone of maximum volume accumulation, indicating the beginning of an upward trend reversal.

The price broke through the descending resistance line. After the breakout, it pulled back and is currently testing this level as support (retest).

It's also encouraging to see the increase in volume on the recent candles, indicating support for the current bullish momentum.

The technical picture looks bullish, but what do the metrics say?
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DOGS and NOT: On-Chain Dynamics Comparison

For market cap growth, you don't need many buyers; a simple refusal of sellers to sell can be enough. Has this moment arrived? Let's compare.

Based on data from IntoTheBlock and the Active Addresses Ratio metrics, here’s an analysis of NOT during its all-time low (May 16–29, 2024):

πŸ’Ž NOT (May 2024):

During this period, address activity began to surge, peaking at 121.34% on May 16, indicating a high level of network activity. By the end of May, activity had decreased to 8.29%, while the price had already risen to $0.01049 and formed a bottom. This suggests that active addresses were taking profits or distributing tokens, signaling an upcoming rally.

The peak in activity coincided with the lowest price level, and following the sharp decline in activity, the token began to rise (also coinciding with a favorable market phase). This behavior is typical for accumulation phases.

🐢 DOGS (August–September 2024):

On August 26, the activity of DOGS addresses peaked at 143.73% with a price of $0.001218, similar to NOT's behavior after its drop. By September 12, activity had dropped to 3.88%, and the price fell to $0.000977.

DOGS, like NOT, shows high initial address activity, followed by a decline, which may indicate the completion of post-drop selling. Notably, the airdrop is set to be completed by September 26. When active addresses stop sending tokens to exchanges en masse, the market may be poised for a new rally. In the case of NOT, this behavior preceded its 550% pump, and the current dynamics of DOGS are showing similar signs.
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πŸ’° BTC > $61,000

Although its growth is eating up the dominance and barely letting the alts breathe, the targets for dominance have already been reached. Ready to get rich πŸ’Έ
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#Notcoin

Just look at the chart. Who's buying up all these market sell-offs?

If you look at the volumes, it’s clear that it’s not us with our $100-$1,000...

➑️ Patience πŸ’Ž
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β˜€οΈ $63,000 Bitcoin
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Claim the ByBit promotion:

ByBit has been generous in the past, and this time is no exception. Catizen is currently on a hype wave, and you can earn $CATI tokens worth $50 at the current rate 🐱

How to participate?

- Register on ByBit and complete verification.
- Go to the promo page.
- Deposit at least $100 within 7 days of receiving the task.

If you qualify, you can claim your rewards in the Rewards Hub within 14 days. For new users only
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Half an hour until the much-anticipated $CATI token listing!

Meanwhile, OKX has already launched an auction with an average price of $1 per token. What do you think the listing price will be? πŸšΆβ€β™€οΈ
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πŸ’° Earn crypto by watching videos!

A new project has just launched in collaboration with Notcoin. We already spend hours watching short videos, but now Coub has created Reels right in Telegram, and they’ve also launched a standalone app for IOS / ANDROID.

I personally liked the project and the content. Some of the videos I uploaded even made it to the recommendations.

Connect your wallet, and for your activity, you'll earn future COUB tokens.

The project has just started, so don’t miss your chance to be one of the first 🀴

Jump into COUB!
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As George Bernard Shaw once said:
"The secret of success is to not only rise, but to stay on top."

The listing of Notcoin took place in May, and since then, it has confidently held the title of the top-1 token in the TON ecosystem πŸ’Ž

- Despite the fact that it was a huge airdrop for the community (over 95% of the total supply for 11.5 million people).
- Despite the situation with Pavel Durov's arrest and the listings of new tokens from major projects.
- Despite the boring and even quite challenging summer for the market, Notcoin continues to hold its position.

At this point, much has changed: everyone who wanted to sell has already done so β€” this applies not only to Notcoin, but also to all other projects that launched with big airdrops. The first wave of distribution, redistribution, and profit-taking has passed. Now, a new phase begins 🌱

Notcoin is heading towards an exciting future that is hard to predict. A breakout event could happen at any moment πŸš€
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🐸 Telegram has updated its search algorithm β€” Durov announced that Telegram now utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) to improve the functionality of the messenger. He also emphasized that if you violate Telegram's rules, your IP and phone number may be shared with law enforcement upon request.

Regular users like us have nothing to worry about, but scammers, drug dealers, and other shady characters might already be nervously smoking on the sidelines 🚬

In any case, the era of total freedom in Telegram has come to an end.
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