๐Ÿณ WhalePool Traders Journal
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Evening Update: Todayโ€™s headlines from The Straits Times on Aug 14, 2026
Published Aug 14, 2026, 06:00 PM
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https://str.sg/uq9G
#Soloway
Retail Sales Shock, Signal No September Rate Hike, Markets Keep Surging, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin

Retail sales are usually a non-event. This one was a shocker: minus 0.6% against plus 0.1% expected. FedWatch responded immediately โ€” odds of no September hike jumped to nearly 70%, and October flipped to no hike too. Gareth Soloway has been the skeptic on hikes all along and the data keeps proving him right. But he flags the one number saying cheap money is not coming back.

๐Ÿ“ TODAY'S GAME PLAN

๐Ÿ”ต RETAIL SALES โ€” Online sales fell 2.2%, autos dropped 1.8%, groceries slipped 0.1%, and gasoline spending spiked on cost.
๐Ÿ”ต THE FED โ€” Nearly 70% odds of no September move, up from 55โ€“60% yesterday, and October flipped to 57% no hike. Gareth's call stands: no hikes this year, cuts in 2027.
๐ŸŸข SPY โ€” The sideways chop after the run into resistance was a bull flag, and it resolved up yesterday. Mid-to-late August favors upside on light volume. His target stays 8,100โ€“8,200, a potential cycle high where a 10โ€“20% drawdown lives.
๐Ÿ”ด DXY / YIELDS โ€” The dollar is falling and may be breaking support, which the market likes, but yields are flat to higher anyway. The tell: yesterday's $25 billion 30-year auction cleared at 5.216%, the highest in 25 years, with US debt just hitting $40 trillion.
๐Ÿ”ต AMAT โ€” Earnings were very good, but the stock had run too far for good to be good enough. Coming into $500, Gareth eyes a day trade at the $481.75 pivot low and a swing near $458โ€“$460 โ€” a fourth trend-line hit, and those break more often.
๐ŸŸข RDDT / NU โ€” Reddit surges on its S&P 500 addition. A gap fill at $178 approaches and should be major resistance; through it, $186 is the better level. Nu Holdings pops on earnings but sits at its pivot, so the $16.65 gap fill is the trade.
๐ŸŸข DELL โ€” Yesterday's game-plan trade. He called $505โ€“$510 shortable and took it in the day trading room; the high pierced $514 before closing at $494, near $490 today.
๐Ÿ”ด MDB โ€” One of his favorite shorts. A vertical move is a rubber band pulled tight, and MongoDB ran into a longer-term trend line through prior pivots. He took the swing short with Smart Money: Stocks and ETFs.
๐Ÿ”ด XLF / JPM / BAC โ€” Every time the financials pierce the upper trend line of their parallel, a bigger pullback follows โ€” and price is there now. Still an uptrend, so he shorts resistance, buys support.
๐Ÿ”ต GOLD / SILVER / OIL / NATGAS โ€” Gold bounces on the weak dollar, caught between a bull flag and a deeper pullback; silver consolidates at resistance. Oil is flat with the wedge too tight to trade after he banked both sides. Natural gas cannot burst $2.83, but Europe's inventory shortfall could drive a move as winter approaches.
๐ŸŸข BITCOIN โ€” Inching lower on another Clarity Act delay, but still above the major trend line, keeping the chart a net positive. Gareth is accumulating down here while the breakouts hold, despite palpable bearish sentiment, and expects something firm by the midterms. XRP support sits at 95โ€“96 cents.

๐Ÿ”‘ KEY TAKEAWAY: No hike is not the same as cheap money. The front end is pricing the Fed standing pat while the 30-year just cleared at a 25-year high โ€” long money wants paid more, not less. That is why Gareth is bullish near term and still shorts the most extended charts.

โฑ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00โ€‹ Retail Sales Shock: Minus 0.6%
04:00โ€‹ FedWatch Jumps to 70% No Hike
08:00โ€‹ S&P: The Bull Flag Resolves
13:00โ€‹ The 8,100โ€“8,200 Cycle High
17:00โ€‹ The 30-Year Auction at 5.216%
26:00โ€‹ AMAT: Good Is Not Good Enough
30:00โ€‹ Reddit Joins the S&P 500
34:00โ€‹ The Dell Short That Paid
37:00โ€‹ MongoDB and the Rubber Band
41:00โ€‹ Shorting the Financials
46:00โ€‹ Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas

#StockMarketโ€‹ #Tradingโ€‹ #RetailSalesโ€‹ #Fedโ€‹ #SP500โ€‹ #Redditโ€‹ #Dellโ€‹ #MongoDBโ€‹ #Goldโ€‹ #Silverโ€‹ #Bitcoinโ€‹ #DayTradingโ€‹ #Investingโ€‹

https://www.youtube.com/live/gc7nJ_1_wrY?is=tBHAByTq0a2XkzJd
โค1
#USMarketUpdate
S&P 500 ends lower as investors weigh data, Middle East tensions | Reuters

SUMMARY
July retail sales unexpectedly fall
Reddit soars on S&P 500 inclusion announcement
Drone makers gain after Trump plans tariffs on drone, component imports
S&P 500 -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.28%, Dow -0.20%

Aug 14 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday, dipping from a record high and weighed down by Applied Materials, while investors โ€‹digested weaker-than-expected retail sales data.

Applied Materials (AMAT.O), opens new tab fell 5.1% after its upbeat quarterly forecast failed to impress investors. The chip equipment maker's shares have โ€Œdoubled in 2026 due to strong demand related to the buildout of AI data centers.

https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-muted-higher-oil-prices-temper-risk-appetite-after-sp-record-2026-08-14/

S&P 500 ends lower as investors weigh data, Middle East tensions
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-ends-lower-as-investors-weigh-data-middle-east-tensions
Wall St #WeekAhead:
With Fed mum on next move, investors look to earnings to keep stocks afloat | Reuters

SUMMARY

Investors remain alert to geopolitical and inflation risks
But with limited Fed guidance, they are looking to earnings for market direction
They see Jackson Hole symposium as next chance for Fed policy clarity

Aug 14 (Reuters) - Investors head into next week weighing familiar concerns over interest rates, inflation and geopolitical tensions against another robust earnings season โ€‹that continues to keep stocks supported.

With little fresh guidance from policymakers and uncertainty brewing over the U.S. Federal Reserve's next move, many investors are increasingly โ€Œlooking to corporate earnings โ€” fueled in part by spending on AI infrastructure โ€” to validate bullish assumptions and offset macroeconomic risks.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/wall-st-week-ahead-with-fed-mum-next-move-investors-look-earnings-keep-stocks-2026-08-14/
In this Verified Investing weekly wrap-up (0:15), Chief Market Strategist Gareth #Soloway analyzes current market trends and potential long-term economic risks.

Key Market Insights:
Rising Yields: Despite expectations of no Fed rate hikes in September, yields on the 10-year and 30-year bonds are rising (0:36, 3:08). Soloway views this as a sign that the market is losing confidence in the Federal Reserve, potentially signaling future economic trouble (0:55, 1:32).
US Debt & Economy: Soloway notes that the 30-year yield is at its highest levels since 2007 (3:13). With US debt now at $40 trillion, he warns that current interest payments are becoming increasingly unsustainable (3:41, 4:03).
Stock Market Outlook: Despite macro concerns, Soloway remains near-term bullish on the S&P 500, expecting potential gains through the end of the year (1:45, 14:13). He discusses technical chart patterns for major stocks like Apple (6:04), Tesla (7:16), Amazon (8:17), and Microsoft (11:31).
Commodities & Crypto: Soloway shares his long-term bullish view on Gold with a $13,000 target by 2029-2031 (17:05). He remains cautious but disciplined with Bitcoin trading, holding a near-term bullish stance as long as it respects key support levels (19:13, 19:49).

Soloway emphasizes the importance of chart disciplineโ€”letting market patterns guide trades rather than emotional reactions (9:13, 15:56). He encourages viewers to utilize the free resources and calculators available on the Verified Investing website (20:36).

https://www.youtube.com/live/q0sihxTa2RY?is=ongdB1NMmAlArLT1
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No B.S. Just Charts. Gareth #Soloway, Chief Market Strategist at VerifiedInvesting.com, breaks down the S&P 500 and lays out a near-term target of $8,100 to $8,200 before year end, then walks through the M2 money supply chart that has him concerned about what comes after.

Gareth shows how the S&P measured against M2 money supply lines up with a parallel channel running back to 1982 and the dot-com high, and what a max-out at that level could mean for the years that follow. He draws the parallel off the COVID low, points out the breakout-test-and-hold sequence that got the market here, and names the failed-breakout level that would flip his whole thesis.

From there Gareth turns to gold, which has confirmed its wedge breakout and, by his charts and his gold calculator, is still headed toward $13,000 long term. He covers the possible retrace to the scene of the crime, the fresh $40 trillion U.S. debt milestone, and where the Verified Investing gold calculator lets viewers run their own inputs. He then flips to silver into resistance, the retrace and breakout levels he is monitoring, and finishes on Bitcoin, which continues to hold its breakout trend line while Clarity Act headlines panic retail and, in Gareth's read, smart money accumulates.

Trade the chart, not the emotion.

Chapters
0:00โ€‹ โ€“ Intro: S&P, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin On Deck
0:43โ€‹ โ€“ Rumble Wallet Crypto Swing Trading
1:20โ€‹ โ€“ S&P 500 Bullish Setup And $8,200 Target
2:08โ€‹ โ€“ S&P vs M2 Money Supply: The Dot-Com Warning
3:17โ€‹ โ€“ COVID-Low Parallel Channel And Failed-Breakout Level
5:31โ€‹ โ€“ Gareth's Top Squad Membership
6:30โ€‹ โ€“ Gold Wedge Breakout And $13,000 Target
7:55โ€‹ โ€“ Silver Into Resistance: Retrace And Breakout Levels
8:19โ€‹ โ€“ Bitcoin Holds The Breakout As Retail Panics
9:54โ€‹ โ€“ Final Thoughts

https://youtu.be/3lR9ps6IIRk?is=C7bmlhzMAPrIFgjG
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