🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

#Soloway
Retail Sales Shock, Signal No September Rate Hike, Markets Keep Surging, Gold, Silver, Bitcoin

Retail sales are usually a non-event. This one was a shocker: minus 0.6% against plus 0.1% expected. FedWatch responded immediately — odds of no September hike jumped to nearly 70%, and October flipped to no hike too. Gareth Soloway has been the skeptic on hikes all along and the data keeps proving him right. But he flags the one number saying cheap money is not coming back.

📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN

🔵 RETAIL SALES — Online sales fell 2.2%, autos dropped 1.8%, groceries slipped 0.1%, and gasoline spending spiked on cost.
🔵 THE FED — Nearly 70% odds of no September move, up from 55–60% yesterday, and October flipped to 57% no hike. Gareth's call stands: no hikes this year, cuts in 2027.
🟢 SPY — The sideways chop after the run into resistance was a bull flag, and it resolved up yesterday. Mid-to-late August favors upside on light volume. His target stays 8,100–8,200, a potential cycle high where a 10–20% drawdown lives.
🔴 DXY / YIELDS — The dollar is falling and may be breaking support, which the market likes, but yields are flat to higher anyway. The tell: yesterday's $25 billion 30-year auction cleared at 5.216%, the highest in 25 years, with US debt just hitting $40 trillion.
🔵 AMAT — Earnings were very good, but the stock had run too far for good to be good enough. Coming into $500, Gareth eyes a day trade at the $481.75 pivot low and a swing near $458–$460 — a fourth trend-line hit, and those break more often.
🟢 RDDT / NU — Reddit surges on its S&P 500 addition. A gap fill at $178 approaches and should be major resistance; through it, $186 is the better level. Nu Holdings pops on earnings but sits at its pivot, so the $16.65 gap fill is the trade.
🟢 DELL — Yesterday's game-plan trade. He called $505–$510 shortable and took it in the day trading room; the high pierced $514 before closing at $494, near $490 today.
🔴 MDB — One of his favorite shorts. A vertical move is a rubber band pulled tight, and MongoDB ran into a longer-term trend line through prior pivots. He took the swing short with Smart Money: Stocks and ETFs.
🔴 XLF / JPM / BAC — Every time the financials pierce the upper trend line of their parallel, a bigger pullback follows — and price is there now. Still an uptrend, so he shorts resistance, buys support.
🔵 GOLD / SILVER / OIL / NATGAS — Gold bounces on the weak dollar, caught between a bull flag and a deeper pullback; silver consolidates at resistance. Oil is flat with the wedge too tight to trade after he banked both sides. Natural gas cannot burst $2.83, but Europe's inventory shortfall could drive a move as winter approaches.
🟢 BITCOIN — Inching lower on another Clarity Act delay, but still above the major trend line, keeping the chart a net positive. Gareth is accumulating down here while the breakouts hold, despite palpable bearish sentiment, and expects something firm by the midterms. XRP support sits at 95–96 cents.

🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: No hike is not the same as cheap money. The front end is pricing the Fed standing pat while the 30-year just cleared at a 25-year high — long money wants paid more, not less. That is why Gareth is bullish near term and still shorts the most extended charts.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Retail Sales Shock: Minus 0.6%
04:00 FedWatch Jumps to 70% No Hike
08:00 S&P: The Bull Flag Resolves
13:00 The 8,100–8,200 Cycle High
17:00 The 30-Year Auction at 5.216%
26:00 AMAT: Good Is Not Good Enough
30:00 Reddit Joins the S&P 500
34:00 The Dell Short That Paid
37:00 MongoDB and the Rubber Band
41:00 Shorting the Financials
46:00 Gold, Silver, Oil, Natural Gas

#StockMarket #Trading #RetailSales #Fed #SP500 #Reddit #Dell #MongoDB #Gold #Silver #Bitcoin #DayTrading #Investing

https://www.youtube.com/live/gc7nJ_1_wrY?is=tBHAByTq0a2XkzJd

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116 viewsedited 16:21

🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

Sandisk stock surges as Wall Street cheers flash memory maker's bullish outlook
https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/stocks/article/sandisk-stock-surges-as-wall-street-cheers-flash-memory-makers-bullish-outlook-131502540.html

Yahoo Finance

Sandisk stock surges as Wall Street cheers flash memory maker's bullish outlook

Sandisk stock surged as Wall Street digested the flash memory maker's bullish long-term growth targets.

94 views17:24

🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

US consumers sour on economy as inflation concerns remain in focus, UMich survey says
https://finance.yahoo.com/economy/article/us-consumers-sour-on-economy-as-inflation-concerns-remain-in-focus-umich-survey-says-144047259.html

Yahoo Finance

US consumers sour on economy as inflation concerns remain in focus, UMich survey says

UMich's Index of Consumer Sentiment fell to 51 from July's 55.2 reading, ending two consecutive months of improvement in the metric.

103 views17:24

🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

#USMarketUpdate
Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq slip after stocks hit record high, consumer sentiment declines

Live updates

https://finance.yahoo.com/markets/live/stock-market-today-friday-august-14-dow-sp-500-nasdaq-102635519.html

Yahoo Finance

Stock market today: Dow, S&P 500, Nasdaq futures waver after stocks hit record high

The S&P 500 was on track for a weekly gain after the broad-based index posted a record high on Thursday.

190 viewsedited 17:28

🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

#USMarketUpdate
S&P 500 ends lower as investors weigh data, Middle East tensions | Reuters

SUMMARY
July retail sales unexpectedly fall
Reddit soars on S&P 500 inclusion announcement
Drone makers gain after Trump plans tariffs on drone, component imports
S&P 500 -0.17%, Nasdaq -0.28%, Dow -0.20%

Aug 14 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 closed lower on Friday, dipping from a record high and weighed down by Applied Materials, while investors digested weaker-than-expected retail sales data.

Applied Materials (AMAT.O), opens new tab fell 5.1% after its upbeat quarterly forecast failed to impress investors. The chip equipment maker's shares have ‌doubled in 2026 due to strong demand related to the buildout of AI data centers.

https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-muted-higher-oil-prices-temper-risk-appetite-after-sp-record-2026-08-14/

S&P 500 ends lower as investors weigh data, Middle East tensions
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-ends-lower-as-investors-weigh-data-middle-east-tensions

105 viewsedited 00:27

🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

While You Were Sleeping: 5 stories you might have missed, Aug 15, 2026
https://www.straitstimes.com/world/while-you-were-sleeping-5-stories-you-might-have-missed-aug-15-2026

The Straits Times

While You Were Sleeping: 5 stories you might have missed, Aug 15, 2026

While You Were Sleeping: 5 stories you might have missed, Aug 15, 2026. Read more at straitstimes.com. Read more at straitstimes.com.

78 views00:30

🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

Wall St #WeekAhead:
With Fed mum on next move, investors look to earnings to keep stocks afloat | Reuters

SUMMARY

Investors remain alert to geopolitical and inflation risks
But with limited Fed guidance, they are looking to earnings for market direction
They see Jackson Hole symposium as next chance for Fed policy clarity

Aug 14 (Reuters) - Investors head into next week weighing familiar concerns over interest rates, inflation and geopolitical tensions against another robust earnings season that continues to keep stocks supported.

With little fresh guidance from policymakers and uncertainty brewing over the U.S. Federal Reserve's next move, many investors are increasingly ‌looking to corporate earnings — fueled in part by spending on AI infrastructure — to validate bullish assumptions and offset macroeconomic risks.

https://www.reuters.com/legal/transactional/wall-st-week-ahead-with-fed-mum-next-move-investors-look-earnings-keep-stocks-2026-08-14/

82 viewsedited 00:31