🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal
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Bad trading habits make trading like gambling. This channel is for proactive and decerning investors and traders
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🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal
US.Day.Ahead-2026.08.12-Wed.pdf
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PPI beat expectations a day after CPI landed in line, and the door to no September hike keeps opening. Gareth Soloway ties it together: the S&P is building a bull flag under resistance, the dollar may be building the inverse, and oil and yields are falling together. Then he goes stock by stock through the earnings damage and the setups worth trading β€” under one rule. Be the casino, not the gambler.

πŸ“ TODAY'S GAME PLAN

πŸ”΅ PPI AND THE FED β€” Headline PPI printed 0.0% against +0.2% expected, 4.7% yearly versus 4.9%, and core monthly came in a tenth better. Only core yearly was merely in line. The rotation away from a September 16 hike continues.
🟒 SPY β€” Futures sit near session highs. The daily is a tight bull flag under a resistance trend line, and Jake, one of the desk's top options traders, flagged in the 8am meeting that options were heavily skewed to an upside day. Support beneath is the big parallel off the COVID lows and 2021 highs. That 8am meeting goes live on YouTube starting mid-September.
πŸ”΄ DXY / 10-YR YIELD β€” The dollar holds a trend line from January through the May pivot low and may be building a bear flag β€” the mirror of the S&P. Yields ease with oil lower, and both falling together is a tailwind for stocks.
πŸ”΄ CSCO β€” Good numbers, but guidance showed margins contracting, and a half-trillion-dollar company up 150% in a year cannot afford that. The weekly is striking: a parallel off the dot-com bubble high tagged the recent high and printed a topping tail, so Gareth sees it lower for months. Day trade only, $107.50–$109.
πŸ”΅ COHR / CBRS β€” Coherent's after-hours low at $327 was the exact daily gap fill, making a double bottom there a possible day trade, with $315 beneath. Cerebras, an AI chip name that IPO'd May 14, is getting hammered; first day-trade level is the $204 pivot low.
πŸ”΄ SPACEX β€” Back to the scene of the crime. The $150 IPO open held as support three times before breaking, and price has now retraced into it from below, making it resistance. It is already fading pre-market, and probability favors rejection.
🟒 DELL β€” At all-time highs, barely pulling back while other AI names collapsed. A long-term ascending trend line should cap it near $505.
πŸ”΅ US OIL / NATGAS β€” Gareth is out of the short he took off the high pivot and sidelined: the wedge is too tight for the risk-reward, and the stalemate may last past the midterms. Natural gas is down nearly 2%, rejecting former support turned resistance.
🟒 GOLD / SILVER β€” Gold stalls at the long-term trend line, with major resistance between $4,400 and $4,500 and a retrace expected; he would buy near $3,900 spot. Silver rejected at its line, but a pullback into it is a swing long.
🟒 BITCOIN β€” Still holding the breakout, and still dead while gold, silver, and stocks rip. Gareth reads that as the calm before the storm, and the negativity makes him more bullish near term.

πŸ”‘ KEY TAKEAWAY: Be the casino, not the gambler. The casino does not win every hand, it just wins more than it loses β€” that is the point of trading technicals. Emotion is the tool institutions use against retail, so stripping it out is how you end up on their side of the trade.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00​ PPI Beats Expectations
03:00​ The September Hike Door Opens Wider
06:00​ S&P Bull Flag and the Options Skew
13:00​ Dollar's Bear Flag, Yields Easing
17:00​ Cisco: Margins and the Topping Tail
24:00​ Coherent's Gap Fill and Cerebras
30:00​ SpaceX and the Scene of the Crime
34:00​ Dell at All-Time Highs
37:00​ Oil's Stalemate, Natural Gas
40:00​ Gold, Silver, Bitcoin's Calm

https://www.youtube.com/live/UCsrErLf6w4?is=3myHIcVOXmY-XbWC