🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal
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Evening Update: Today’s headlines from The Straits Times on Aug 12, 2026

https://str.sg/maLE
#Soloway.

CPI came in exactly in line β€” every number matched estimates β€” and the market is relieved. Gareth Soloway goes straight to what matters: the dollar is falling into major trend-line support, the 10-Year is coming in, and FedWatch flipped back to favoring no hike in September. Add blowout AI earnings from CoreWeave, SMCI, and NBIS, and the question is whether the S&P breaks out.

πŸ“ TODAY'S GAME PLAN

πŸ”΅ CPI BREAKDOWN β€” Headline +0.1% monthly and +3.4% yearly, core +0.2% and +2.5%, all in line. Shelter's one-tenth uptick was two-thirds of the gain, and airline fares jumped 2.2%.
πŸ”΅ THE FED β€” FedWatch flipped from a coin flip to 55.9% no hike versus 44.1% hike on September 16. Gareth's view has not moved: no hikes. Hiking into a softening labor market is a tough sell, and he sees cuts in 2027.
πŸ”΄ DXY / 10-YR YIELD β€” The dollar is falling into the daily trend line he has flagged for several videos. Break it and he calls it a slippery slope β€” smart money voting no hike. The 10-Year sits at 4.656%, already falling before the print.
🟒 SPY β€” The move off support into resistance and the chop that followed, even with oil in the mid-$80s, reads as bullish consolidation. Falling yields, a falling dollar, and hot AI earnings may trigger the breakout. If it goes, 8,100–8,200 is possible within a couple of months β€” and he believes that is where the major top forms.
🟒 CRWV β€” Up nearly 20% and the big level of the day. A three-factor pivot at $122 stacks a descending trend line, a pivot high, and the 0.618 fib. Trading near $107, so it is a ways off, but he likes it a lot.
🟒 SMCI β€” Guidance came in roughly 35–40% above consensus and the stock is ripping. First day-trade level near $36.75, then $38.15, with the big one at $40.50.
🟒 CAVA / NBIS β€” Cava's guidance points to middle-income customers returning; aggressive traders can eye the $74.40 pivot top, though Gareth watches $76.75. NBIS is up almost 20%; he prefers $240–241 as a day trade, with the $240–$275 gap as the swing level.
🟒 GOLD / GDX / SILVER β€” Gold pushes into a thick band of resistance and GDX runs hard, with resistance near $94. Silver is up but below yesterday's highs and broke its descending trend line β€” a retrace to that line would be a return to the scene of the crime.
πŸ”΅ US OIL / NATGAS β€” Iran and the US are no closer to a deal, and the wedge tells the same story as the news: a holding pattern tightening until something resolves it. Natural gas keeps failing $2.83; a daily close above opens $3.00.
🟒 BITCOIN β€” Two down days after Strategy sold some Bitcoin on Monday, now inching off the lows with risk assets. Gareth stays bullish for one reason: the breakout still holds. Lose the trend line and probability flips.

πŸ”‘ KEY TAKEAWAY: The chart beats the narrative. Gareth is blunt that when he trades the news, emotion takes over and he loses. Charts do not win every time β€” he puts it near 75% β€” but that edge is why the trend line, not the headline, decides his stance.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00​ CPI Hits: Every Number In Line
02:00​ Shelter, Airfares, and Gas
06:00​ FedWatch Flips to No Hike
10:00​ Dollar at Trend-Line Support
14:00​ The 10-Year Was Already Falling
17:00​ S&P Breakout and the 8,200 Top
22:00​ CoreWeave's Three-Factor Pivot
26:00​ SMCI, Cava, NBIS Levels
33:00​ Gold, GDX, Silver's Retrace
37:00​ Oil and Natural Gas
41:00​ Bitcoin: Charts Over News
45:00​ Wrap-Up

#StockMarket​ #Trading​ #CPI​ #Inflation​ #Fed​ #SP500​ #Gold​ #Silver​ #Bitcoin​ #CoreWeave​ #SMCI​ #DayTrading​ #Investing​

https://www.youtube.com/live/rjdPCLf3thQ?is=RtmIKaOH194e4OwI
😁1
#USMarketUpdate
S&P 500 ends higher as
CoreWeave results fuel AI optimism

SUMMARY
CoreWeave jumps after lifting annual capex forecast
US consumer prices rise as expected in July
Super Micro Computer surges on strong forecast
S&P 500 +0.26%, Nasdaq +0.54%, Dow -0.04%

Aug 12 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Nasdaq ended higher on ​Wednesday, lifted by upbeat quarterly results from CoreWeave and other AI infrastructure firms, while mild inflation data reinforced bets β€Œthat the U.S. Federal Reserve will hold interest rates steady in September.

U.S. consumer prices barely increased in July as the cost of gasoline declined for a second straight month, while underlying inflation was benign, further reducing expectations of an interest rate hike from the Federal Reserve next month...

Data center operators also rose, with IREN (IREN.O), opens new tab gaining almost 10% and Applied Digital (APLD.O), opens new tab β€‹up 4.9%. Data center company Nebius Group (NBIS.O), opens new tab jumped 34%, helped by second-quarter results that beat expectations.

Super Micro Computer (SMCI.O), opens new tab surged 19% after the AI server maker forecast fiscal 2027 revenue above Wall Street expectations.

Chipmakers gained, with Nvidia (NVDA.O), opens new tab rising 3% and Micron Technology (MU.O), opens new tab adding 4.9%. The PHLX Semiconductor Index (.SOX), opens new tab advanced about 2.5%. It remains ​down about 15% from its record-high close on June 22..


Traders are now pricing in a 62% chance of the Fed holding rates at its September meeting, according to CME's FedWatch Tool. Before the July inflation data ​was released, bets were split between ​a hike and no change.

The ⁠conflict between the U.S. and Iran remained volatile as a senior Iranian source said there had been no progress in talks to revive the interim deal reached in June and define a time frame ​to implement it, while shipping attacks continued.

Cava Group (CAVA.N), opens new tab advanced 14.2% after the restaurant chain beat Wall ​Street expectations for second-quarter ⁠sales and core profit.

Lumentum Holdings (LITE.O), opens new tab surged 13.6% after the photonic product maker forecast first-quarter revenue above analysts' expectations and beat fourth-quarter estimates.

https://www.reuters.com/business/wall-st-futures-tick-up-heading-into-july-inflation-data-2026-08-12/


S&P 500 ends higher as CoreWeave results fuel AI optimism
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/sp-500-ends-higher-as-coreweave-results-fuel-ai-optimism
#MarketMind
#TradingDay: AI cheer, new highs near

Aug 12 (Reuters) - Upbeat tech earnings pushed the Nasdaq, S&P 500 and MSCI All Country indices to within a whisker of their all-time highs on Wednesday, while stocks and bonds also welcomed U.S. inflation figures that appeared to reduce the chances of the Federal Reserve raising interest rates next month.

In my column today, I look at the recent surge in U.S. hyperscalers' CDS ​spreads, which reflect concern that these companies' increased borrowings and deteriorating free cash flows could trigger default or a "credit event". The CDS moves are eye-catching, but β€Œoverstate the risks



https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-08-12/