🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

#Soloway

A weak jobs report sent the market higher, and the reason is rates. Payrolls came in at minus 23,000 against roughly 83,000 expected, with prior months revised down another 103,000 and the slowest wage growth in years. September hike odds collapsed, and cheaper money is what buyers want. On this Weekly Wrap-Up, Gareth Soloway maps the trend lines that decide how far this rally runs, why the VIX has him watching complacency, and his favorite trade right now.

📐 THIS WEEK'S WRAP-UP

🟢 SPY — Up 0.6%, just off Wednesday's all-time high. Near-term resistance is the trend line off the COVID low near 7,800; break it and little stands in the way until 8,100, where Gareth would short heavily.
🔵 JOBS AND THE FED — Participation at 61.4%, down 0.7% since January, means a shrinking labor pool masks real weakness. FedWatch shows 58.1% odds of no move on September 16 versus 41.9% for a hike, a huge swing from roughly 70% days ago.
🔴 VIX — The complacency gauge. Below 15 Gareth gets nervous: it can stay low for months, but it always pops eventually to 20, 25, or higher. In the 12s to 14s he starts a small core short.
🔵 DXY / 10-YR YIELD — The dollar fell but held support rather than breaking it. Yields dipped then rallied off the lows, because the inflation bug is still embedded — capping how far rates can fall.
🟢 ORCL — The chart Gareth likes most: a beautiful rounded cup now building its handle. If it holds into mid next week, he looks for the move up.
🟢 NVDA — A great bounce off a trend line built from three successive low pivots. He sees a little more upside, with a no-brainer short level far above if it keeps running.
🟢 SPACEX — Up 15%-plus, recovering after collapsing from a $225 post-IPO high to about $105. Bullish sentiment is returning.
🔴 MSFT — Kissed a gap fill and printed a topping tail, a bearish reversal signal, right as Oracle sets up bullish. Which side wins says a lot about the tech trade.
🟢 GOLD — Continued its wedge breakout right into the $4,375 first resistance Gareth called. That level must break for the next leg. He expects a fade into the inflation data.
🔴 SILVER — Rallied straight to $64, exactly the level he named. Until it clears and confirms above it he does not believe the breakout — just a retrace to the level that keeps rejecting it.
🔵 US OIL / NATGAS — Oil slips with all eyes on the Strait of Hormuz; natural gas inched up 1.4%.
🟢 BITCOIN — His favorite trade right now. It has broken out without making its big move yet, so the risk is clean: lose the level and it is a failed breakout. Clear $67K and he wants $71K–$72K, tracking gold with a lag.

🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Complacency is a slow fuse. The VIX under 15 does not call a top — it can sit there for months — but fear always returns with a spike. That is why Gareth stays bullish near term while planning his short.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 Weak Jobs, Strong Rally: Why Rates Rule
04:00 Inside the Report and the Revisions
07:30 FedWatch Swings to No Hike
10:30 S&P: The 7,800 and 8,100 Trend Lines
15:00 Dollar Holds Support, Yields Bounce
18:30 The VIX and Building Complacency
23:00 Oracle's Cup and Handle
26:00 Nvidia and SpaceX Recover
30:00 Microsoft's Topping Tail
32:00 Gold and Silver Hit Their Levels
38:00 Oil, Natural Gas, and Bitcoin
42:00 Wrap-Up

#StockMarket #Trading #JobsReport #Gold #Silver #Bitcoin #Oracle #Nvidia #SpaceX #VIX #Fed #DayTrading #Investing

https://www.youtube.com/live/VixcxkFQync?is=0cBiGJ3s2Fpy2qKs

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🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

Watching Singapore's #NDP2026 fireworks tonight? Here are eight free spots around Kallang, plus the nearest MRT stations and crowd tips.
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🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

Every Singaporean priced out of a condo has had this thought: just move to JB, right? Cheaper rent, more space, same SGD paycheck.

But talk to anyone doing the commute, and it's not that simple. Your parents, your gym, your favourite hawker stall, your kid's school, all still an hour away. The RTS Link helps, but it doesn't shrink the emotional distance.

So is the trade worth it, or does the math only work on paper?
https://drwealth.com/singapore-properties-are-too-expensive-can-living-in-malaysia-work/

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Singapore Properties Are Too Expensive. Can Living in Malaysia Work? | Dr Wealth

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🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

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Tong Ren Tang (同仁堂).

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🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

What happened in China this week

1. The US Federal Communications Commission is drafting a ban on imports of new Chinese optical transceivers.

2. Innolight and Eoptolink are the top Chinese suppliers of optical transceivers globally, and US companies can't easily wean off them.

3. Despite the ban news, both stocks actually rose this week.

4. WuXi AppTec is another good example of US pressure not working.

5. Despite being added to the Pentagon's blacklist, WuXi AppTec reported that revenue from the United States rose more than 56% year on year, and the stock is up almost 20% this week.

6. But insurers (AIA, Prudential) and banks (HSBC, StanChart) were not so lucky. China imposed a 20% tax on offshore insurance policy returns, and their share prices fell on fears of losing mainland business.

7. Same story with EV makers. China phased out older tax breaks and added a new tax on EVs, and BYD, Geely, Chery and other EV stocks fell this week as a result.

8. Haidilao launched a new burger chain called Fresh Burger. We think it's a mistake.

For more insights, read [Premium]: https://growthdragons.substack.com/p/growth-dragons-weekly-us-restrictions

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🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

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