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#MarketMind
#TradingDay: The only way is up | Reuters

Aug 3 (Reuters) - World stocks leaped to record highs on Tuesday, boosted by a relentless stream of strong U.S. and global earnings, with another slump in oil prices on Middle East peace hopes pushing down on bond yields and boosting investor sentiment also.

In my column today, I dig deeper into America's unprecedented currency market intervention last ​week. Washington's commitment to help Japan prop up the yen should not be doubted, but there is a fair degree of self-interest at play ‌too, especially regarding the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market...

Today's Talking Points:

Dollar drift?
The U.S.'s historic intervention in the yen last week may mark an inflection point for the dollar, not just against ​Japan's flailing currency, but more broadly. If dollar/yen has topped out, and the threat of more intervention forces traders to cover their massive short yen position, the spillover to other dollar/Asia crosses is not difficult to imagine.

Does this ease some of the 'beggar thy neighbor' approach to FX policy across Asia? Again, it's a plausible scenario, especially if peace breaks out in the Middle East and the slump in oil prices continues to pull Treasury yields down from their recent highs...

Reaction (mall)function
A 20% slump in oil prices over the last 10 days has taken the heat off the Treasury market, at least at the short end, and by extension, the Fed. ‌But debate continues ⁠to swirl around what the Kevin Warsh Fed's reaction function will be. Warsh refuses to tell us what his is, so investors are taking their cue from others...

Block ​rockin' BEATS
Investors by now know just how ⁠strong U.S. earnings growth is, but some of the numbers bear repeating. According to SocGen earlier on Tuesday, six out of 10 firms have reported, 70% of market cap, and only 9% have missed estimates, the lowest reading ever, while 86% of firms have ​beaten estimates. Both S&P 500 and ex-tech margins have hit record highs. Q2 y/y earnings growth will be over 30%, according ​to UBS, and even ⁠approaching 50%, according to LSEG estimates...

What could move markets tomorrow?
India interest rate decision
Brazil interest rate decision
U.S. ⁠services ISM ​index (July)
U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak — Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
U.S. earnings, including ​Eli Lilly, Sandisk, Western Digital, Disney, Uber

https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-08-04/

Start Understanding Your Own Financial Scorecard: Kiyosaki
https://www.singsaver.com.sg/blog/robert-kiyosaki-advice-on-financial-statement

💴 Japan and the US have joined forces to support the yen after it hit decades-low levels. But why is the US helping Japan prop it up?

Here's why it matters, and what it means for travellers, investors and the global economy: https://cna.asia/4pTO03z

Drivers, heads up: Drink-driving limits will be lowered in Singapore under a new law that also increases penalties for dangerous driving causing grievous hurt.

Read more: https://cna.asia/3S8b02t

Gold extends gains on lower oil and softer greenback, markets await US jobs data
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/energy-commodities/gold-extends-gains-lower-oil-and-softer-greenback-markets-await-us-jobs-data

Can Seatrium build on its robust H1 earnings? UOBKH and DBS analysts have divided views https://bt.sg/KNNi

#HKMarketUpdate
<Full-day Takeaway>HSI Closes at 25,915, Up 62 pts; HSTI Closes at 4,933, Up 47 pts; CMOC Up over 8%; TECHTRONIC IND, CH MODERN D, TCL ELECTRONICS, LEE & MAN PAPER Hit New Highs; Market Turnover Rises
2026/08/05 16:12 GMT+08

At close, HSI rose 62 pts or 0.2% to 25,915. HSTI rose 47 pts or 1.0% to 4,933. HSCEI gained 29 pts or 0.3% to 8,603. Market turnover reached $278.04 billion

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1536732/top-news/AAFN

#HKMarketUpdate
<H Shrs>HSI Ends Up 62 pts; Gold Mining and PCB Stocks Soar; HSBC HOLDINGS Drifts Lower by 2%+
2026/08/05 16:42 GMT+08

The HSI, opening up 38 pts before trading narrowly, closed at 25,915, up 62 pts or 0.24%, with main board turnover at HKD278.043 billion. The HSTECH closed at 4,933, up 47 pts or 0.97%, while the HSCEI closed at 8,603, up 29 pts or 0.34%.

https://www.aastocks.com/en/stocks/news/aafn-con/NOW.1536742/top-news/AAFN

#SgMarketUpdate
Singapore shares fall as local banks end lower; STI down 0.6%

https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/companies-markets/capital-markets-currencies/singapore-shares-fall-local-banks-end-lower-sti-down-0-6

QEvening Update: Today’s headlines from The Straits Times on Aug 5, 2026

https://str.sg/vikx

Stocks making the biggest moves premarket: SpaceX, AMD, Eli Lilly & more

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/stocks-making-the-biggest-moves-premarket-spcx-amd-lly-dis-more.html?__source=androidappshare

Anthropic's Mythos created fake identities to fool humans in new cyber incident

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/05/anthropic-mythos-openai-security-breaches.html?__source=androidappshare

Daily Debrief: What Happened Today (Aug 5)
https://www.businesstimes.com.sg/singapore/daily-debrief-what-happened-today-aug-52

Nvidia stock rises, as Musk says SpaceX will exclusively use company's chips
https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/article/nvidia-stock-rises-as-musk-says-spacex-will-exclusively-use-companys-chips-211803293.html

Tech stocks today: SpaceX, AMD top quarterly results, but fail to impress Wall Street. Shares sink
https://finance.yahoo.com/technology/live/tech-stocks-today-spacex-amd-top-quarterly-results-but-fail-to-impress-wall-street-shares-sink-140419479.html

S&P 500 and Dow futures tick higher after record day on Wall Street

https://www.cnbc.com/2026/08/04/stock-market-today-live-updates.html?__source=androidappshare

Gold just broke out, Bitcoin is hammering on the door, and the S&P is grinding toward Gareth's next resistance target near 7,810. The Nasdaq 100 has ripped 10% in a single week off last Wednesday's low — that does not happen often. But not everything is celebrating: AMD is down 8% on guidance and SpaceX is getting pounded into the exact measured-move target Gareth called before earnings. On today's Trading Game Plan, he maps the levels on all of it, plus the three supports he'd watch if the S&P finally pulls back.

📐 TODAY'S GAME PLAN

🟢 SPY — Broke out of the wedge after holding the line three times. Next resistance is the 2024 trend line just above 7,810. On a pullback, first support is the former all-time high at 7,620, then the down-sloping trend line, then a third level below.
🟢 QQQ — Up 10% in one week on a Magnificent Seven bid. Gareth flags $737–$738 as massive resistance, where a gap fill and the 0.886 fib retrace stack up — about 1.5% away.
🔵 10-YR YIELD / DXY — Yields flat after a big two-day drop, taking pressure off a September hike. Gareth remains skeptical the Fed actually raises, and wonders if Warsh is talking hawkish to get the effect without the action. Dollar easing back toward a key trend-line retest.
🔴 AMD — Down about 8% on guidance and margins after barely correcting while names like SanDisk fell 50–60%. Day trade only: Gareth's trend line sits just below the $450 round number.
🔴 SPACEX — Getting pounded into the $95–$97 measured move he called ahead of earnings, driven by the huge insider lockup expiry. That's the zone where he would consider a swing buy.
🟢 SHOP — Monster earnings surge that already pierced the $156 gap fill. Next day-trade level is $171 on an extreme extension move.
🔴 SEDG — SolarEdge trounced from about $48 down to $40. Scalp level at $38–$39 on the pivot low; swing interest only near $34.50 and $32.
🟢 ANET / DIS — Arista pops on earnings off recent highs. Disney bounces into a trend line near $106.50 — shortable there, but a confirmed break flips it and Gareth would buy the retrace instead.
🔴 UBER — Down 5–6%. A long-term trend line near $66 is a possible day trade, but it has been hit five times and a sixth makes a break a coin flip, so Gareth would rather wait.
🟢 GOLD — A resounding breakout candle. A close here confirms the wedge break. He is a long-term bull, though he would not be shocked by a run to $4,500 followed by a retrace later this year.
🔵 SILVER — Strong rally, but tons of resistance near $64. Until it clears that, the chart stays troublesome.
🟢 BITCOIN — On the verge of a breakout, hammering a trend line off multiple high pivots. With gold breaking out, Gareth sees reasonable odds it follows: first target $71K–$72K, then as high as $77K.

🔑 KEY TAKEAWAY: Day trades and swing trades need different levels. Gareth will scalp a decent trend line for a few minutes, but a swing hold takes a phenomenal multi-factor level — which is why AMD and Shopify are day trades today and SpaceX only becomes interesting near $95.

⏱ TIMESTAMPS (estimated)
00:00 ADP Miss and the Setup Into Payrolls
02:00 S&P: The 7,810 Target and Three Supports
06:30 Nasdaq Up 10% in One Week
10:00 Yields, the Dollar, and Fed Skepticism
13:00 AMD Drops 8% on Guidance
16:30 SpaceX: The Measured Move Hits
20:00 Shopify, SolarEdge, Arista, Disney
26:00 Uber and the Six-Touch Trend Line
29:00 Gold Breaks Out
32:00 Silver, Oil, and Natural Gas
34:30 Bitcoin About to Surge
36:30 Wrap-Up

#StockMarket #Trading #Gold #Bitcoin #AMD #SpaceX #Shopify #Disney #Uber #Silver #Earnings #DayTrading #Investing

https://www.youtube.com/live/lGSExjfFPew?is=l47xEvoS96C3n1Iw