🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal
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Dow, S&P 500 close at record on AI-linked earnings, Mideast deal hopes | Reuters

SUMMARY
US job openings drop in June, hiring increasesPalantir jumps after raising annual revenue forecastCaterpillar rises after reporting higher Q2 profitIndexes up: Dow 1.71%, S&P 500 1.79%, Nasdaq 2.59%

NEW YORK, Aug 4 (Reuters) - The S&P 500 and the Dow closed at record highs on Tuesday, powered by ​the latest batch of earnings from AI-related companies such as Caterpillar and Palantir that assuaged demand concerns, while crude prices and Treasury yields ‌dropped on hopes for a deal in the Iran war.

Palantir Technologies (PLTR.O), opens new tab soared 29.5% and recorded its biggest daily percentage gain since February 2024, after raising its annual revenue forecast.

https://www.reuters.com/business/nasdaq-futures-underpinned-by-strong-ai-forecasts-focus-earnings-data-2026-08-04/

Dow, S&P 500 close at record on AI-linked earnings, Middle East deal hopes
https://www.straitstimes.com/business/companies-markets/dow-sp-500-close-at-record-on-ai-linked-earnings-middle-east-deal-hopes
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#TradingDay: The only way is up | Reuters

Aug 3 (Reuters) - World stocks leaped to record highs on Tuesday, boosted by a relentless stream of strong U.S. and global earnings, with another slump in oil prices on Middle East peace hopes pushing down on bond yields and boosting investor sentiment also.

In my column today, I dig deeper into America's unprecedented currency market intervention last ​week. Washington's commitment to help Japan prop up the yen should not be doubted, but there is a fair degree of self-interest at play ‌too, especially regarding the $29 trillion U.S. Treasury market...

Today's Talking Points:

Dollar drift?
The U.S.'s historic intervention in the yen last week may mark an inflection point for the dollar, not just against ​Japan's flailing currency, but more broadly. If dollar/yen has topped out, and the threat of more intervention forces traders to cover their massive short yen position, the spillover to other dollar/Asia crosses is not difficult to imagine.

Does this ease some of the 'beggar thy neighbor' approach to FX policy across Asia? Again, it's a plausible scenario, especially if peace breaks out in the Middle East and the slump in oil prices continues to pull Treasury yields down from their recent highs...

Reaction (mall)function
A 20% slump in oil prices over the last 10 days has taken the heat off the Treasury market, at least at the short end, and by extension, the Fed. ‌But debate continues ⁠to swirl around what the Kevin Warsh Fed's reaction function will be. Warsh refuses to tell us what his is, so investors are taking their cue from others...

Block ​rockin' BEATS
Investors by now know just how ⁠strong U.S. earnings growth is, but some of the numbers bear repeating. According to SocGen earlier on Tuesday, six out of 10 firms have reported, 70% of market cap, and only 9% have missed estimates, the lowest reading ever, while 86% of firms have ​beaten estimates. Both S&P 500 and ex-tech margins have hit record highs. Q2 y/y earnings growth will be over 30%, according ​to UBS, and even ⁠approaching 50%, according to LSEG estimates...

What could move markets tomorrow?
India interest rate decision
Brazil interest rate decision
U.S. ⁠services ISM ​index (July)
U.S. Federal Reserve officials scheduled to speak — Governor Lisa Cook, San Francisco Fed President Mary Daly
U.S. earnings, including ​Eli Lilly, Sandisk, Western Digital, Disney, Uber


https://www.reuters.com/commentary/reuters-open-interest/global-markets-trading-day-graphic-2026-08-04/