🐳 WhalePool Traders Journal

Semiconductor Crash: When To Buy Micron, SanDisk As Major Reset Unfolds

Gareth #Soloway breaks down the semiconductor sell-off and reveals exactly where he plans to go long on Micron (MU), SanDisk (SNDK), and other beaten-down chip names. With SanDisk down over 50% from its highs, Gareth walks through why the selling is happening and where the real bounce opportunities are setting up.

Gareth explains the cyclical nature of semiconductors that most investors miss. When margins sit at 80% or 90%, competition is inevitable, and China is now mass-producing DRAM and lithography technology that threatens those margins. He covers why low P/E ratios on semiconductors historically signal tops, not bargains, and why the smart money buys these names when the P/E looks high.

On the charts, Gareth details his nibble-and-accumulate approach: starting a small long on SanDisk near $11.80, with add levels at the converging trend lines, the 50% Fibonacci retrace, and the gap fill. He also flags the major gap fill on Micron and a key zone on Marvell (MRVL) around $170. Greed drove the top. Fear will drive the bottom. Gareth's goal is to buy the extreme fear and unload at fair value.

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Chapters:
0:00 Semiconductor Sell-Off Begins
0:59 Why The Selling Is Happening: China & Margins
4:56 Nasdaq Levels & The Bigger Bounce Zone
5:53 SanDisk Buy Levels & The Nibble Approach
9:17 Micron & Marvell Gap Fills
10:41 Rumble Wallet
12:03 Final Thoughts

https://youtu.be/qnEdn9SAffY?is=k0UrMFCWiDBicFMj

105 viewsedited 15:16

#anastasi

Timestamps:
00:00 - Chinese EUV Efforts
09:00 - How It Works
11:34 - Last Missing Piece
15:30 - Outlook

This video examines China's ambitious strategic effort to develop a domestic Extreme Ultraviolet (EUV) lithography machine, a critical technology for producing advanced semiconductors. The creator breaks down the primary technical and supply chain hurdles China faces in trying to replicate technology dominated by the Dutch company ASML.

Key Challenges & Developments:
Light Source (0:57 - 5:33): ASML uses a complex laser-produced plasma (LPP) method. China is pursuing this while also exploring Laser Induced Discharge Plasma (LDP)—a simpler but historically difficult approach—in an attempt to find a different path to the same 13.5nm wavelength.
Precision Optics (6:18 - 11:33): EUV lithography requires mirrors smoothed to atomic precision. China is utilizing institutes like the Changchun Optics Institute to develop domestic mirror systems. The massive size of China's prototype compared to ASML's suggests they may be compensating for lower precision with larger physical scales.
Invisible Dependencies (11:34 - 14:43): Even with hardware, high-volume production requires vast amounts of Helium, a resource China currently imports, making its supply chain vulnerable.
Human Capital (14:44 - 15:30): China has focused on recruiting talent with prior experience in international firms to help bridge the knowledge gap.

Outlook (15:30 - 18:08):
While China's current prototype output (approx. 100W) remains significantly lower than ASML's latest systems (up to 700W), the goal is not immediate commercial parity. Instead, the objective is to build a domestic system capable of replacing less efficient manufacturing methods like quadruple-patterning DUV, providing China with greater strategic control over its semiconductor supply chain.

https://youtu.be/YiPgSm62fiM?is=k7iAjN8gV2VqoHT5

#QuarterChart
https://vt.tiktok.com/ZS4NaRYbd/

YouTube

China Just Built What ASML Feared Most

Check out ChatLLM from Abacus.AI: https://chatllm.abacus.ai/alt

Timestamps:
00:00 - Chinese EUV Efforts
09:00 - How It Works
11:34 - Last Missing Piece
15:30 - Outlook

My Podcast on Apple: https://podcasts.apple.com/at/podcast/deep-in-tech/id1829970978…

101 viewsedited 15:56