Monitoring The Situation
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Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

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Monitoring The Situation
trump's weekend action plan ?
Q: Are you attending your son's wedding this weekend?

TRUMP: Uhhhh. He'd like me to go. I'm gonna try and make it. I said, 'This is not good timing for me. I have a thing called Iran and other things.'
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(random account reporting based on a very prominent news source but the source itself not reporting it lol when the source already have large accounts everywhere so why not Al Arabiya reported on their own big channels ?? Why some others are reporting based on it ? Where is the original source? And again even Al Arabiya has reported fake headlines

(It could be true just like maybe aliens exist but who knows)

(Maybe source really got dragons here but the amount of fake headlines we have already seen recently so imo base case is most likely not true)

Make no sense to me)

And it says claims not like even the op knows anything here

Context: IRAN'S AL-ARABIYA TV CLAIMS FINAL DRAFT OS US-IRAN AGREEMENT REACHED
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(fyi: mr president likes spotlight, and he definitely not giving it to some random sources)
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Verified these so far:

Al Arabiya TV (x account) not reported this

'Al Arabiya brk' another account also did not report this

Atleast not in the last hour)

If you know any other Al Arabiya source please comment 👇
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Time to Learn some basics

Red flags for headlines:
- pakistan sources
- Al Arabiya sources
- Axios sources
- IRGC
- reuters iran sources
- Trump's interview/press yapping
- Iran's President (wen diverting from irgc view)
- iranian Media
- random copy pasta headline relaying accounts

Good flags:
- NYT (goat)
- FT (good)
- BBG (good)
- INFINITYHEDGE (ofc)
- MonitoringSituation (this channel) (but not always check pin msg)
- CNN (works okayish)
- WaPo (works i think)
- Truth Social (trump)
- IRGC or Iran state media for only news related to talks and SOH

And many more for both list but I don't remember all names right now so
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PAKISTANI ARMY CHIEF WILL NOT TRAVEL TO TEHRAN TONIGHT: ALARABIYA
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A Senior White House official told Diana Nerozzi (politico) that the major sticking points are still:

1. no nuclear weapons
2. opening the Strait of Hormuz

(Effectively means everything about negotiations)
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SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCE TO REUTERS: NO DEAL HAS BEEN REACHED YET, BUT GAPS HAVE NARROWED
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AL ARABIYA NETWORK: WHAT IRANIAN MEDIA REPORTED ABOUT REACHING AN AGREEMENT ATTRIBUTED TO AL ARABIYA IS FABRICATED
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Monitoring The Situation
AL ARABIYA NETWORK: WHAT IRANIAN MEDIA REPORTED ABOUT REACHING AN AGREEMENT ATTRIBUTED TO AL ARABIYA IS FABRICATED
(essentially it means I was right and market was wrong,

Dis fake headline fked my productive well planned day 😡, so gn or whatever)
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Pakistan says China and Pakistan have jointly proposed a five-point initiative to end the war

The Five Points 😁 probably are:
1/ negotiate with Washington.
2/ negotiate with Tehran
3/ negotiate with the mediators
4/ negotiate with each other
5/ keep negotiating.

H/t laurence norman (WSJ)
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TRUMP: NEW STOCK MARKET RECORD!
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IRNA SOURCE: PAKISTANI ARMY CHIEF MUNIR HEADED TO TEHRAN
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AL ARABIYA SOURCES: THE PAKISTANI ARMY CHIEF IS ON HIS WAY TO TEHRAN
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El Niño and Strait of Hormuz exposed commodities

Inflation pressures peak between four and eight months after El Niño’s first hit, so whatever the effects are, they will be felt towards the end of the year and into 2027...

The central message is straightforward. El Niño is not a binary event; it is a spectrum, and the macroeconomic consequences depend critically on where along that spectrum the economy lands. A mild episode would be manageable. A strong or very strong El Niño, by contrast, would generate a meaningful inflation shock across Latin America, with the largest effects concentrated in the Andean region and more persistent dynamics in Brazil.
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QATAR HAS SENT A NEGOTIATING TEAM TO TEHRAN, IN COORDINATION WITH THE U.S., TO HELP SECURE A DEAL TO END THE IRAN WAR, SOURCE WITH KNOWLEDGE
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Dozens of US warplanes are stationed at Israel’s main civilian airport alongside Israeli military aircraft following a build-up that has continued despite the ceasefire in the two countries’ war with Iran..

By early March roughly 36 tankers were parked at the airport, according to the satellite imagery. During the ceasefire that came into effect in early April, the number rose to 47. As of this week, the FT identified 52 military aircraft parked at the airport.

The much smaller civilian Ramon airport, near the southern tip of the country, has also been used to park military aircraft. Analysis by the FT suggests the airport remained empty in February and March, but since the early April ceasefire at least 10 tankers have been spotted on the tarmac there.

Israel’s Channel 12 News reported this week that there were ongoing talks to allow the refuelling aircraft to remain at Ben Gurion airport until at least the end of 2027
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