Monitoring The Situation
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Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

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US total crude inventories fell last week ~17.8 million barrels (that's commercial and SPR stocks combined). On that basis, it's the largest weekly fall since data is available starting in 1982: JB

(Can take 30% impact discount bc world is less dependent on oil but still huge)
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Monitoring The Situation
Video
Fresh New Exclusive from Trump:

"We're in final stages of Iran. We'll see what happens. Either have a deal or we're going to do some things that are a little bit nasty, but hopefully that won't happen."

(President of United States for the first time speaking on Iran War)
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TRUMP: WE MAY HAVE TO HIT IRAN EVEN HARDER, BUT MAYBE NOT
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TRUMP: THERE'S MORE FIGHTING TO COME UNLESS IRAN GETS SMART
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U.S. MILITARY: U.S. MARINES BOARDED AN IRANIAN-FLAGGED COMMERCIAL OIL TANKER ON WEDNESDAY
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IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SPOKESPERSON SAYS IRAN READY TO DEVELOP PROTOCOLS FOR SAFE SHIPPING TRAFFIC IN COOPERATION WITH OTHER COASTAL STATES
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Israel's N12: Trump told Netanyahu during the conversation that the mediators were working on what he called a "letter of intent" that both the US and Iran would sign (in yesterday's call btw trump and netanyahu)

American source: Netanyahu left the conversation worried
NETANYAHU'S "HAIR WAS ON FIRE" AFTER THE CALL
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The goal of the new effort is to get more tangible commitments from the Iranians over steps regarding their nuclear program
All three sources stressed it's unclear whether the Iranians will agree to the new draft or to shift their positions significantly: Axios
IRAN'S TASNIM: US HAS SENT A NEW TEXT TO IRAN
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IRAN IS REVIEWING THE TEXT AND HAS NOT YET RESPONDED
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TRUMP ON OIL SANCTIONS RELIEF FOR IRAN: NOT DOING ANY
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TRUMP ON IRAN: NOT DOING ANY RELIEF UNTIL DEAL IS REACHED
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TRUMP ON IRAN: WILL END SOON, ONE WAY OR THE OTHER
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Monitoring The Situation
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=fWF0ZwzGoho
(tldr: so how long can Iran afford to keep fighting?

Years, at least in current phase of war)
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Persian Gulf Strait Authority: Iran has defined the monitoring scope of the Strait of Hormuz management as follows

(Iran Control SOH map, Latest, )
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China is reportedly refusing to approve a Pentagon official's Beijing visit until Trump decides whether to proceed with a $14 billion arms package for Taiwan
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IRAN'S SUPREME LEADER HAS ORDERED THAT NEAR-WEAPONS-GRADE URANIUM MUST STAY IN IRAN, TWO SENIOR IRANIAN SOURCES SAY: RTRS
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