Monitoring The Situation
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Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

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I THINK WE ALL KNOW WHERE THIS IS GOING: U.S. OFFICIAL
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TRUMP CONSIDERING TWO OPTIONS, EITHER RESUMING PROJECT FREEDOM OR RESUME THE BOMBING CAMPAIGN & STRIKE THE 25% OF TARGETS THE U.S. MILITARY IDENTIFIED BUT HAS YET TO STRIKE
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old but interesting: The United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes on Iran in early April around the time Trump was announcing a cease-fire. Iran said at the time that the refinery had been struck in an enemy attack and launched a barrage of missile and drone strikes against the U.A.E. and Kuwait in response.

(Iran knew so don't think this news gonna change current situation in any way)
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Iran said it has significantly expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz and now considers the waterway to encompass a much larger area than before the war.

An official with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces said Iran would “not allow any kind of encroachment upon its waters and interests.”
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Monitoring The Situation
In short, America’s selling while China ain’t buying US exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been shielding the world from the supply shock. The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels…
JP Morgan's argument is essentially that the strait of Hormuz will reopen because it has to. (Not just JPM but Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs also) (All three are expecting SOH to reopen in June at All cost)

Says who?

Most would have never imagined we'd be in mid-May, with little to no prospect of an imminent reopening.

These are unprecedented times. Expect the unexpected

cc Nader Itayim
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Monitoring The Situation
old but interesting: The United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes on Iran in early April around the time Trump was announcing a cease-fire. Iran said at the time that the refinery had been struck in an enemy attack and launched a barrage of missile…
Old but interesting: Saudi Arabia carried out unpublicized retaliatory strikes on Iran during the war, According to four people familiar with the matter

(so it's gulf war, everyone attacked each other in the end)
An informed source to Fars: Iran will not enter the second round of negotiations with the US without fulfilling 5 confidence-building conditions
Iran's five preconditions:
- ending the war on all fronts
- lifting sanctions
- releasing Iran's blocked funds
- compensating for war damages
- accepting Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
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PENTAGON CONSIDERING RE-NAMING IRAN WAR 'SLEDGEHAMMER' IF CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES - NBC

U.S. MILITARY MAY LAUNCH "OPERATION SLEDGEHAMMER" AGAINST IRAN, BYPASSING CONGRESSIONAL 60-DAY WAR POWER LIMITS
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Monitoring The Situation
PENTAGON CONSIDERING RE-NAMING IRAN WAR 'SLEDGEHAMMER' IF CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES - NBC U.S. MILITARY MAY LAUNCH "OPERATION SLEDGEHAMMER" AGAINST IRAN, BYPASSING CONGRESSIONAL 60-DAY WAR POWER LIMITS
The discussions about possibly replacing “Operation Epic Fury” with “Operation Sledgehammer” underscore how seriously the administration is considering resuming the war started on Feb. 28, and could allow Trump to argue that it restarts the 60-day clock that requires congressional authorization for war.
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Mossad Chief Visited U.A.E. During Iran Bombing Campaign to Help Coordinate War: WSJ

Spy chief David Barnea secretly visited the U.A.E. on at least two separate occasions, in March and April, the people said

Also Israel sent the U.A.E. Iron Dome batteries and dozens of military personnel to operate them to defend against Iranian projectiles, as the U.A.E. carried out military strikes in Iran, including an attack on a refinery on Iran’s Lavan Island in the Persian Gulf

(that's why Iran was attacking UAE hard in comparison to others)
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THREE ISRAELI AIRSTRIKES ON COASTAL HIGHWAY KILL EIGHT INCLUDING TWO CHILDREN: LEBANON HEALTH MINISTRY
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Chinese Supertanker Crosses Strait Without Paying Tolls

A Cosco official told The Wall Street Journal that the tanker crossed without paying tolls at Larak, a move seen by the company as a gesture of goodwill by Iran before the summit in Beijing, where the Iran war will be high on the agenda

Ships crossing through Larak pay an average of $2 million each, according to brokers.
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Trump Arrives in Beijing
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SPX UP
OIL DOWN
BTC DOWN
SOH CLOSED
TRUMP IN CHINA
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Iran FM: In clear attempt to sow discord, Kuwait has unlawfully attacked an Iranian boat and detained 4 of our citizens in the Persian Gulf. This illegal act took place near island used by the U.S. to attack Iran.

We demand immediate release of our nationals and reserve right to respond
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UAE: Denies Reports Regarding Visit by Israeli Prime Minister or Receiving Any Israeli Military Delegation

Fyi: Iran FM posted this minutes before UAE statement

"Netanyahu has now publicly revealed what Iran's security services long ago conveyed to our leadership. Those colluding with Israel to sow division will be held to account"
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ISRAEL: Netanyahu visited UAE

UAE: Israel is lying

(I'm confused how both countries are officially contradicting each other openly???)
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