In short, America’s selling while China ain’t buying
US exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been shielding the world from the supply shock. The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels a day, the 6.8mn net contraction of seaborne export supply estimated by Morgan Stanley,
Can China maintain import flows at the current low levels for as long as the Strait remains closed? Morgan Stanley says maybe (lack of data cited)
And can the US maintain the current pace of exports? Morgan Stanley says possibly not
(Looks like even MS not expecting SOH opening before June)
The "Buffer" is Working (For Now) BUT Clock Is Ticking
And If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into late June, then U.S. will have to stop exporting to protect its own supply, and China will eventually run out of stored oil
US exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been shielding the world from the supply shock. The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels a day, the 6.8mn net contraction of seaborne export supply estimated by Morgan Stanley,
Can China maintain import flows at the current low levels for as long as the Strait remains closed? Morgan Stanley says maybe (lack of data cited)
And can the US maintain the current pace of exports? Morgan Stanley says possibly not
(Looks like even MS not expecting SOH opening before June)
The "Buffer" is Working (For Now) BUT Clock Is Ticking
And If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into late June, then U.S. will have to stop exporting to protect its own supply, and China will eventually run out of stored oil
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TRUMP MEETING WITH NATIONAL SECURITY TEAM ON IRAN MONDAY - AXIOS
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TRUMP CONSIDERING TWO OPTIONS, EITHER RESUMING PROJECT FREEDOM OR RESUME THE BOMBING CAMPAIGN & STRIKE THE 25% OF TARGETS THE U.S. MILITARY IDENTIFIED BUT HAS YET TO STRIKE
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old but interesting: The United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes on Iran in early April around the time Trump was announcing a cease-fire. Iran said at the time that the refinery had been struck in an enemy attack and launched a barrage of missile and drone strikes against the U.A.E. and Kuwait in response.
(Iran knew so don't think this news gonna change current situation in any way)
(Iran knew so don't think this news gonna change current situation in any way)
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Iran said it has significantly expanded its definition of the Strait of Hormuz and now considers the waterway to encompass a much larger area than before the war.
An official with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces said Iran would “not allow any kind of encroachment upon its waters and interests.”
An official with the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps naval forces said Iran would “not allow any kind of encroachment upon its waters and interests.”
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Monitoring The Situation
In short, America’s selling while China ain’t buying US exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been shielding the world from the supply shock. The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels…
JP Morgan's argument is essentially that the strait of Hormuz will reopen because it has to. (Not just JPM but Morgan Stanley, Goldman Sachs also) (All three are expecting SOH to reopen in June at All cost)
Says who?
Most would have never imagined we'd be in mid-May, with little to no prospect of an imminent reopening.
These are unprecedented times. Expect the unexpected
cc Nader Itayim
Says who?
Most would have never imagined we'd be in mid-May, with little to no prospect of an imminent reopening.
These are unprecedented times. Expect the unexpected
cc Nader Itayim
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Monitoring The Situation
old but interesting: The United Arab Emirates has carried out military strikes on Iran in early April around the time Trump was announcing a cease-fire. Iran said at the time that the refinery had been struck in an enemy attack and launched a barrage of missile…
Old but interesting: Saudi Arabia carried out unpublicized retaliatory strikes on Iran during the war, According to four people familiar with the matter
(so it's gulf war, everyone attacked each other in the end)
(so it's gulf war, everyone attacked each other in the end)
An informed source to Fars: Iran will not enter the second round of negotiations with the US without fulfilling 5 confidence-building conditions
Iran's five preconditions:
- ending the war on all fronts
- lifting sanctions
- releasing Iran's blocked funds
- compensating for war damages
- accepting Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
- ending the war on all fronts
- lifting sanctions
- releasing Iran's blocked funds
- compensating for war damages
- accepting Iran's sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz
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PENTAGON CONSIDERING RE-NAMING IRAN WAR 'SLEDGEHAMMER' IF CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES - NBC
U.S. MILITARY MAY LAUNCH "OPERATION SLEDGEHAMMER" AGAINST IRAN, BYPASSING CONGRESSIONAL 60-DAY WAR POWER LIMITS
U.S. MILITARY MAY LAUNCH "OPERATION SLEDGEHAMMER" AGAINST IRAN, BYPASSING CONGRESSIONAL 60-DAY WAR POWER LIMITS
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Monitoring The Situation
(60day deadline ended on may1 and trump legally cannot continue war so now this new twist, and If Iran attacks, Iran starts the new conflict not trump and then U.S. can respond with full force and it will trigger a new 60day deadline (?) and he also added…
. (fyi iran did attack US warships (for making a case)
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Monitoring The Situation
PENTAGON CONSIDERING RE-NAMING IRAN WAR 'SLEDGEHAMMER' IF CEASEFIRE COLLAPSES - NBC U.S. MILITARY MAY LAUNCH "OPERATION SLEDGEHAMMER" AGAINST IRAN, BYPASSING CONGRESSIONAL 60-DAY WAR POWER LIMITS
The discussions about possibly replacing “Operation Epic Fury” with “Operation Sledgehammer” underscore how seriously the administration is considering resuming the war started on Feb. 28, and could allow Trump to argue that it restarts the 60-day clock that requires congressional authorization for war.
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Monitoring The Situation
The discussions about possibly replacing “Operation Epic Fury” with “Operation Sledgehammer” underscore how seriously the administration is considering resuming the war started on Feb. 28, and could allow Trump to argue that it restarts the 60-day clock that…
NEW NAME NEW 60 DAYS
- TRUMPONOMICS
- TRUMPONOMICS
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