In short, America’s selling while China ain’t buying


US exports and China-led cautious buying patterns among importers have, in effect, been shielding the world from the supply shock. The actions of cautious buyers have therefore exceeded, by 4.1mn barrels a day, the 6.8mn net contraction of seaborne export supply estimated by Morgan Stanley,

Can China maintain import flows at the current low levels for as long as the Strait remains closed? Morgan Stanley says maybe (lack of data cited)

And can the US maintain the current pace of exports? Morgan Stanley says possibly not

(Looks like even MS not expecting SOH opening before June)

The "Buffer" is Working (For Now) BUT Clock Is Ticking

And If the Strait of Hormuz stays closed into late June, then U.S. will have to stop exporting to protect its own supply, and China will eventually run out of stored oil