Monitoring The Situation
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Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

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In addition to the Al Kharaitiyat, Pakistan expects three other vessels with Qatari LNG to attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, according to people familiar with Islamabad’s planning. One such ship, the Mihzem, approached the strait on Sunday: FT

But still this is happening meanwhile:
- Iranian drones over the UAE, and Kuwait.
- Cargo ship targeted off the coast of Qatar.
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TRUMP: I DID NOT SAY THAT COMBAT OPERATIONS AGAINST IRAN HAVE ENDED, BUT I SAID THEY WERE DEFEATED
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TRUMP: WE WILL OBTAIN THE ENRICHED URANIUM. IF ANYONE TRIES TO GET CLOSE THERE - WE WILL BLOW THEM UP
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TRUMP: WE CAN MOVE AGAINST IRAN MILITARILY FOR AN ADDITIONAL TWO WEEKS AND STRIKE EVERY SPECIFIED TARGET
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A DIPLOMATIC SOURCE TELLS AL-MAYADEEN:

IRANIAN RESPONSE INCLUDES THESE DEMANDS:
- END TO U.S. BLOCKADE
- CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON
- LIFTING OF RESTRICTIONS ON OIL EXPORTS
- REMOVAL OF SANCTIONS
- THAWING OF FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS
- CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

THE PROPOSAL INCLUDES NEGOTIATIONS FOR 30 DAYS AFTER THE END OF THE WAR TO DISCUSS THE DETAILS OF THE DEAL
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Nuclear issues would be negotiated over the next 30 days, they said. Iran proposes to have some of its highly enriched uranium diluted and the rest transferred to a third country, the people said: WSJ
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Iran is proposing an end to the fighting and a gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic as the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian ships and ports, the people said.

Iran also said it was willing to suspend enrichment of uranium but for a shorter period than the 20-year moratorium proposed by the U.S., they said. Iran rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities, they said.
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Iran's response to 30d negotiations proposal:

demands:
- End to U.S. blockade (easy)
- Ceasefire in Lebanon (easy)
- Removal of sanctions (easy)
- Thawing of frozen Iranian assets (easy)
- Control over SOH (red line for U.S)
- guarantees against renewed aggression
- no dismantling of nuclear facilities (red line ?)

In return iran will:
- gradually open SOH (easy but control?)
- dilute some of highly enriched uranium & transfer rest to a 3rd country (can be done & china??)
- suspend enrichment of uranium for (5y vs 20y?) (probably not?)
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*INFORMED SOURCE TO TASNIM NEWS SAYS WSJ CLAIMS ON NUCLEAR MATERIALS NOT TRUE

*IRAN TEXT DEMANDS GUARANTEES AGAINST RENEWED AGGRESSION, LIFTING OF US SANCTIONS, AND IRANIAN MANAGEMENT OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ
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TRUMP: I HAVE JUST READ THE RESPONSE FROM IRAN’S SO-CALLED “REPRESENTATIVES.” I DON’T LIKE IT — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!
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IRAN REJECTED THE US PROPOSAL: IRIB
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BRENT CRUDE RISES AS MUCH AS 3.5% TO $104.80/BARREL AT OPEN
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TRUMP WILL PRESSURE BEIJING TO HELP REACH AN AGREEMENT THAT ENDS THE CONFLICT WITH IRAN
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TRUMP WILL URGE XI TO CURB CHINA’S SUPPORT FOR IRAN
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PM asks citizens to work from home, limit gold purchases and stop travelling abroad to conserve foreign exchange

PM of India has called on Indians to avoid buying gold for at least a year to preserve foreign-exchange reserves, “For a year, be it any function, we shouldn’t buy gold jewelry,” Modi said on Sunday, as he also asked citizens to cut fuel use and unnecessary overseas travel. India spends a lot on importing gold into the country, and people should refrain from non-essential purchases

The unusual request underscores how the war in the Middle East and the resulting energy shortages are widening India’s trade deficit and weakening the rupee. Gold constitutes the largest share in India’s import bill after oil, and the country is the world’s second-largest importer of bullion.

Modi’s call marked the first time that the leader of the world’s most populous nation had appealed to citizens to tighten their belts since the US attacked Iran

.....now that the elections are over, Modi can be more realistic about the economic issues” from the Iran war. This meant preparing citizens for rises in fuel prices, which have so far been absorbed by the government and state-owned oil companies.
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Oil's Deep Backwardation Is Almost Gone

The cost of a real-world oil cargo is dropping fast as buyers back away, in a dramatic reversal from last month’s bidding frenzy despite the ongoing closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

....Dubai crude market, trading has shifted to dates so prompt that typical benchmark-setting mechanisms for supplies two months ahead have become devoid of activity — adding to the appearance of depressed prices even as the market is still dealing with unprecedented scarcity.

Europe’s spring maintenance season is due to wrap up soon, potentially reviving demand for June cargoes, according to the traders...

“We’ve drilled a hole, a billion barrels worth of a hole, and we’re going deeper and deeper"
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AN IT EMPLOYEES’ BODY HAS ASKED THE INDIAN GOVERNMENT TO MANDATE WORK-FROM-HOME FOR INDIA’S 5.8 MILLION TECH WORKFORCE FOLLOWING THE PRIME MINISTER’S MESSAGE: ECONOMIC TIMES

LETTER CITES COVID-19 PANDEMIC AS PROOF OF SEAMLESS WFH OPERATIONS
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