IRAN SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ SUBMARINE CABLE PASSAGE MUST BE DONE WITH PERMISSION AND PAYMENT OF FEES UNDER PROPOSED GOVERNANCE MODEL: FARS

(Take with 🧂maybe just doing propaganda but surely expanding reach here)

Pakistan is back looking to buy LNG from the spot market to help its gas shortage

Earlier Pakistan cancelled plans to buy cargoes on spot market because it expected Gulf shipments to resume but now they are buying again

JPMorgan’s Kaneva warns that inventories in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development could reach “operational stress levels” early next month, if the strait doesn’t reopen, and then “operational minimum” floors by September. That’s the point when the world hits the bare minimum amounts of oil needed for pipelines, storage tanks and export terminals to function properly.

US distillate stockpiles were at their lowest point since 2005 at the end of last week, while gasoline stockpiles were hovering near their lowest seasonal levels since 2014.

If the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen by early June, some Asian countries will face a macroeconomic shock because of the shortage of gasoil, he predicted, while Europe may have one more month before the situation becomes difficult to manage.

$110 of Brent oil is only available on a Bloomberg terminal. I know you can't buy that barrel. That barrel of Brent oil is selling for 115, 145 some days. Hundred and 55, even 177. Right. Because it's only paper. If people on Wall Street, the real market, the real market right now is that there is no not enough oil. We're in a demand destruction in certain countries, but they're poor countries first, so stock market doesn't care....

Iran is a very good engineering country. They have remarkable engineering talent. They've been in the oil business 100 years. Yeah, they know what they're doing.....

.....This is I mean, they can handle the pain. I'm just saying they can handle the pain. And their view is how long can you handle the pain? And I'll tell you this, we're going towards a cliff on oil and oil products....

https://youtu.be/tOqBuGxULiU

Thailand is one of the first ag countries to enter a planting season since the Iran war. We (WaPo) went to document the impact of supply shocks to fuel/fertilizer — It was worse than we anticipated: Rebecca Tan

Farmers are leaving huge tracts of land barren bc they can’t afford to plant.

In effect, 30 percent of the world’s urea has been “wiped out,” said Pranshi Goyal, senior analyst at the market intelligence firm CRU Group. China, a major fertilizer producer, has restricted exports to ensure its farmers have enough. Russia, another big manufacturer, is seeing demand soar, potentially boosting its economy and aiding its war in Ukraine. On what is known as the spot market, urea prices are up 40 percent since February.

In June, India and Brazil, two of the world’s biggest agricultural producers, will ramp up orders for urea. If, by then, vessels carrying urea are not sailing, there will be “significant yield loss” across many countries, Torero said. Commodity prices will climb, stoking inflation. The hit to economic growth, he said, will be “very close to what happened in covid-19.”

To make matters worse, scientists say the planet is likely to be hit with a super El Niño climate pattern this year, which could result in extreme heat and drought that will deal another blow to harvests.

*OIL REBALANCING TO TAKE MONTHS EVEN IF HORMUZ OPENS NOW: ARAMCO

*OIL MARKET TO NORMALIZE IN 2027 IF HORMUZ HALTED FEW MORE WEEKS

IRAN'S RESPONSE TO U.S. PROPOSAL TO END WAR HAS BEEN SENT THROUGH PAKISTAN: IRNA

ACCORDING TO THE PROPOSED PLAN, AT THIS STAGE, NEGOTIATIONS WILL FOCUS ON THE ISSUE OF ENDING THE WAR IN THE REGION.

In addition to the Al Kharaitiyat, Pakistan expects three other vessels with Qatari LNG to attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, according to people familiar with Islamabad’s planning. One such ship, the Mihzem, approached the strait on Sunday: FT

But still this is happening meanwhile:
- Iranian drones over the UAE, and Kuwait.
- Cargo ship targeted off the coast of Qatar.

TRUMP: I DID NOT SAY THAT COMBAT OPERATIONS AGAINST IRAN HAVE ENDED, BUT I SAID THEY WERE DEFEATED

TRUMP: WE WILL OBTAIN THE ENRICHED URANIUM. IF ANYONE TRIES TO GET CLOSE THERE - WE WILL BLOW THEM UP

TRUMP: WE CAN MOVE AGAINST IRAN MILITARILY FOR AN ADDITIONAL TWO WEEKS AND STRIKE EVERY SPECIFIED TARGET

A DIPLOMATIC SOURCE TELLS AL-MAYADEEN:

IRANIAN RESPONSE INCLUDES THESE DEMANDS:
- END TO U.S. BLOCKADE
- CEASEFIRE IN LEBANON
- LIFTING OF RESTRICTIONS ON OIL EXPORTS
- REMOVAL OF SANCTIONS
- THAWING OF FROZEN IRANIAN ASSETS
- CONTROL OVER THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ

THE PROPOSAL INCLUDES NEGOTIATIONS FOR 30 DAYS AFTER THE END OF THE WAR TO DISCUSS THE DETAILS OF THE DEAL

Nuclear issues would be negotiated over the next 30 days, they said. Iran proposes to have some of its highly enriched uranium diluted and the rest transferred to a third country, the people said: WSJ

Iran is proposing an end to the fighting and a gradual opening of the Strait of Hormuz to commercial traffic as the U.S. lifts its blockade on Iranian ships and ports, the people said.

Iran also said it was willing to suspend enrichment of uranium but for a shorter period than the 20-year moratorium proposed by the U.S., they said. Iran rejected dismantling its nuclear facilities, they said.

Iran's response to 30d negotiations proposal:

demands:
- End to U.S. blockade (easy)
- Ceasefire in Lebanon (easy)
- Removal of sanctions (easy)
- Thawing of frozen Iranian assets (easy)
- Control over SOH (red line for U.S)
- no dismantling of nuclear facilities (red line ?)

In return iran will:
- gradually open SOH (easy but control?)
- dilute some of highly enriched uranium & transfer rest to a 3rd country (can be done & china??)
- suspend enrichment of uranium for (5y vs 20y?) (probably not?)

· IRANIAN INFORMED SOURCE TO TASNIM NEWS DENIES WSJ REPORT, CALLS DETAILS ON PROPOSED TEXT LARGELY INACCURATE

· INFORMED SOURCE SAYS WSJ CLAIMS ON NUCLEAR MATERIALS NOT TRUE

· IRAN TEXT DEMANDS IMMEDIATE END TO WAR, GUARANTEES AGAINST RENEWED AGGRESSION, LIFTING OF US SANCTIONS, AND IRANIAN MANAGEMENT OF STRAIT OF HORMUZ UPON US COMMITMENTS

· IRAN INSISTS ON ENDING MARITIME BLOCKADE IMMEDIATELY AFTER INITIAL UNDERSTANDING

· IRAN TEXT REQUIRES OFAC SANCTIONS ON OIL SALES LIFTED WITHIN 30 DAYS

· IRAN DEMANDS RELEASE OF FROZEN ASSETS UPON INITIAL UNDERSTANDING PLUS SPECIFIC US ACTIONS DURING 30 DAYS

TRUMP: I HAVE JUST READ THE RESPONSE FROM IRAN’S SO-CALLED “REPRESENTATIVES.” I DON’T LIKE IT — TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE!