Vice President Vance is meeting now with the Prime Minister of Qatar to discuss the negotiations with Iran. The Qataris are a key back channel between the U.S. and Iran in the negotiations on the agreement to end the war, U.S. official says: Axios
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A majority of investors said they expect traffic on the strait to return to normal by the end of July or later, the Goldman Sachs Marquee MarketView poll found. Four in 10 of the institutional clients surveyed said they don’t expect traffic through the Hormuz to return to normal until after July.
Some 18% of those surveyed said they expect Brent crude prices to be $100 a barrel—or higher—by the end of the year. About one quarter said they projected prices to be between $90 and $100 by the end of 2026, and 33% estimated oil would be between $80 and $90. On Thursday, futures for Brent crude settled at $100.06 a barrel. The poll surveyed 837 institutional clients of Goldman Sachs from May 4 to May 6.
Some 18% of those surveyed said they expect Brent crude prices to be $100 a barrel—or higher—by the end of the year. About one quarter said they projected prices to be between $90 and $100 by the end of 2026, and 33% estimated oil would be between $80 and $90. On Thursday, futures for Brent crude settled at $100.06 a barrel. The poll surveyed 837 institutional clients of Goldman Sachs from May 4 to May 6.
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24hr old: Executives across retail, restaurants and packaged goods are increasingly worried about US shoppers with tighter budgets amid surging gas prices caused by the conflict in the Middle East.
'They're literally running out of money at the end of the month," Kraft Heinz Co. Chief Executive Officer Steve Cahillane said in an interview this week. "We're seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they're dipping into savings.
The company Whirlpool Sinks After Slashing Earnings Forecast in Half (1) the resulting 15% hit to industry demand as similar to the global financial crisis in the aughts.
Whirlpool announced a 10% price hike in April, its largest in a decade, and said that a separate 4% price increase will happen in July to address “multiyear inflationary cost pressures”.
Marc Bitzer, the CEO, said on Thursday that the North American slide in sales has a precedent.
“This level of industry decline is similar to what we have observed during the global financial crisis and even higher than during other recessionary periods,” he said during a conference call.
'They're literally running out of money at the end of the month," Kraft Heinz Co. Chief Executive Officer Steve Cahillane said in an interview this week. "We're seeing negative cash flows in the lower-income brackets where they're dipping into savings.
The company Whirlpool Sinks After Slashing Earnings Forecast in Half (1) the resulting 15% hit to industry demand as similar to the global financial crisis in the aughts.
Whirlpool announced a 10% price hike in April, its largest in a decade, and said that a separate 4% price increase will happen in July to address “multiyear inflationary cost pressures”.
Marc Bitzer, the CEO, said on Thursday that the North American slide in sales has a precedent.
“This level of industry decline is similar to what we have observed during the global financial crisis and even higher than during other recessionary periods,” he said during a conference call.
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Financiers at the Beverly Hills gathering brush aside concerns over Iran conflict and private market strains...
...The outward-facing optimism was belied by private comments from financial executives and investors who described the “weird” schism between the record-setting stock market and broader consumer sentiment. “The stock market doesn’t care about the war,” said one executive based in the Middle East. Another conference attendee described the tone as “blissful ignorance”...
...“Does anyone really care if the Strait of Hormuz is open?” one high-powered banker posited.
(Btw The cheapest sponsor package costs roughly $300k this year)
“People are glossing over the war with Iran,” the head of one private credit firm said. “They’ve become desensitised to it. For some reason, people are saying, ‘Yeah, so what?’”... (More like Pam Bondi's DOW at 50k vibe)
...The outward-facing optimism was belied by private comments from financial executives and investors who described the “weird” schism between the record-setting stock market and broader consumer sentiment. “The stock market doesn’t care about the war,” said one executive based in the Middle East. Another conference attendee described the tone as “blissful ignorance”...
...“Does anyone really care if the Strait of Hormuz is open?” one high-powered banker posited.
(Btw The cheapest sponsor package costs roughly $300k this year)
“People are glossing over the war with Iran,” the head of one private credit firm said. “They’ve become desensitised to it. For some reason, people are saying, ‘Yeah, so what?’”... (More like Pam Bondi's DOW at 50k vibe)
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16hrs ago: A large oil slick is spreading in the Persian Gulf off Kharg Island, Iran’s primary crude oil export terminal, satellite images show, raising concerns about the state of Iranian oil infrastructure straining under a U.S.-imposed naval blockade.
apparent spill had spread over an area of more than 20 sq miles as of Thursday. A rupture in an undersea pipeline connecting the hub with the Abuzar oil field, a major offshore field west of Kharg Island, was another possible source....As of midday on Thursday, the oil was drifting southward toward Saudi waters.
A spill near Kharg Island could affect fisheries, coastal communities, desalination plants, marine habitats and sensitive Persian Gulf ecosystems
apparent spill had spread over an area of more than 20 sq miles as of Thursday. A rupture in an undersea pipeline connecting the hub with the Abuzar oil field, a major offshore field west of Kharg Island, was another possible source....As of midday on Thursday, the oil was drifting southward toward Saudi waters.
A spill near Kharg Island could affect fisheries, coastal communities, desalination plants, marine habitats and sensitive Persian Gulf ecosystems
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IRAN SAYS STRAIT OF HORMUZ SUBMARINE CABLE PASSAGE MUST BE DONE WITH PERMISSION AND PAYMENT OF FEES UNDER PROPOSED GOVERNANCE MODEL: FARS
(Take with 🧂maybe just doing propaganda but surely expanding reach here)
(Take with 🧂maybe just doing propaganda but surely expanding reach here)
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Pakistan is back looking to buy LNG from the spot market to help its gas shortage
Earlier Pakistan cancelled plans to buy cargoes on spot market because it expected Gulf shipments to resume but now they are buying again
Earlier Pakistan cancelled plans to buy cargoes on spot market because it expected Gulf shipments to resume but now they are buying again
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JPMorgan’s Kaneva warns that inventories in the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development could reach “operational stress levels” early next month, if the strait doesn’t reopen, and then “operational minimum” floors by September. That’s the point when the world hits the bare minimum amounts of oil needed for pipelines, storage tanks and export terminals to function properly.
US distillate stockpiles were at their lowest point since 2005 at the end of last week, while gasoline stockpiles were hovering near their lowest seasonal levels since 2014.
If the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen by early June, some Asian countries will face a macroeconomic shock because of the shortage of gasoil, he predicted, while Europe may have one more month before the situation becomes difficult to manage.
US distillate stockpiles were at their lowest point since 2005 at the end of last week, while gasoline stockpiles were hovering near their lowest seasonal levels since 2014.
If the Strait of Hormuz doesn’t reopen by early June, some Asian countries will face a macroeconomic shock because of the shortage of gasoil, he predicted, while Europe may have one more month before the situation becomes difficult to manage.
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$110 of Brent oil is only available on a Bloomberg terminal. I know you can't buy that barrel. That barrel of Brent oil is selling for 115, 145 some days. Hundred and 55, even 177. Right. Because it's only paper. If people on Wall Street, the real market, the real market right now is that there is no not enough oil. We're in a demand destruction in certain countries, but they're poor countries first, so stock market doesn't care....
Iran is a very good engineering country. They have remarkable engineering talent. They've been in the oil business 100 years. Yeah, they know what they're doing.....
.....This is I mean, they can handle the pain. I'm just saying they can handle the pain. And their view is how long can you handle the pain? And I'll tell you this, we're going towards a cliff on oil and oil products....
https://youtu.be/tOqBuGxULiU
Iran is a very good engineering country. They have remarkable engineering talent. They've been in the oil business 100 years. Yeah, they know what they're doing.....
.....This is I mean, they can handle the pain. I'm just saying they can handle the pain. And their view is how long can you handle the pain? And I'll tell you this, we're going towards a cliff on oil and oil products....
https://youtu.be/tOqBuGxULiU
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Thailand is one of the first ag countries to enter a planting season since the Iran war. We (WaPo) went to document the impact of supply shocks to fuel/fertilizer — It was worse than we anticipated: Rebecca Tan
Farmers are leaving huge tracts of land barren bc they can’t afford to plant.
In effect, 30 percent of the world’s urea has been “wiped out,” said Pranshi Goyal, senior analyst at the market intelligence firm CRU Group. China, a major fertilizer producer, has restricted exports to ensure its farmers have enough. Russia, another big manufacturer, is seeing demand soar, potentially boosting its economy and aiding its war in Ukraine. On what is known as the spot market, urea prices are up 40 percent since February.
In June, India and Brazil, two of the world’s biggest agricultural producers, will ramp up orders for urea. If, by then, vessels carrying urea are not sailing, there will be “significant yield loss” across many countries, Torero said. Commodity prices will climb, stoking inflation. The hit to economic growth, he said, will be “very close to what happened in covid-19.”
To make matters worse, scientists say the planet is likely to be hit with a super El Niño climate pattern this year, which could result in extreme heat and drought that will deal another blow to harvests.
Farmers are leaving huge tracts of land barren bc they can’t afford to plant.
In effect, 30 percent of the world’s urea has been “wiped out,” said Pranshi Goyal, senior analyst at the market intelligence firm CRU Group. China, a major fertilizer producer, has restricted exports to ensure its farmers have enough. Russia, another big manufacturer, is seeing demand soar, potentially boosting its economy and aiding its war in Ukraine. On what is known as the spot market, urea prices are up 40 percent since February.
In June, India and Brazil, two of the world’s biggest agricultural producers, will ramp up orders for urea. If, by then, vessels carrying urea are not sailing, there will be “significant yield loss” across many countries, Torero said. Commodity prices will climb, stoking inflation. The hit to economic growth, he said, will be “very close to what happened in covid-19.”
To make matters worse, scientists say the planet is likely to be hit with a super El Niño climate pattern this year, which could result in extreme heat and drought that will deal another blow to harvests.
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*OIL REBALANCING TO TAKE MONTHS EVEN IF HORMUZ OPENS NOW: ARAMCO
*OIL MARKET TO NORMALIZE IN 2027 IF HORMUZ HALTED FEW MORE WEEKS
*OIL MARKET TO NORMALIZE IN 2027 IF HORMUZ HALTED FEW MORE WEEKS
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IRAN'S RESPONSE TO U.S. PROPOSAL TO END WAR HAS BEEN SENT THROUGH PAKISTAN: IRNA
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ACCORDING TO THE PROPOSED PLAN, AT THIS STAGE, NEGOTIATIONS WILL FOCUS ON THE ISSUE OF ENDING THE WAR IN THE REGION.
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In addition to the Al Kharaitiyat, Pakistan expects three other vessels with Qatari LNG to attempt to transit the Strait of Hormuz in the coming days, according to people familiar with Islamabad’s planning. One such ship, the Mihzem, approached the strait on Sunday: FT
But still this is happening meanwhile:
- Iranian drones over the UAE, and Kuwait.
- Cargo ship targeted off the coast of Qatar.
But still this is happening meanwhile:
- Iranian drones over the UAE, and Kuwait.
- Cargo ship targeted off the coast of Qatar.
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TRUMP: I DID NOT SAY THAT COMBAT OPERATIONS AGAINST IRAN HAVE ENDED, BUT I SAID THEY WERE DEFEATED
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TRUMP: WE WILL OBTAIN THE ENRICHED URANIUM. IF ANYONE TRIES TO GET CLOSE THERE - WE WILL BLOW THEM UP
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TRUMP: WE CAN MOVE AGAINST IRAN MILITARILY FOR AN ADDITIONAL TWO WEEKS AND STRIKE EVERY SPECIFIED TARGET
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