Two sources with knowledge also claimed Iran would agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country

(No way Lmaoo)

So tldr: U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet

14-point or something MOU:

1. End of war declaration, Start of 30d negotiation window (✅)
2. Iran commits to a long-term halt on uranium enrichment (under negotiation: U.S. demands 20y, Iran proposed 5y (allegedl); sources expect 12–15yrs). Low-level enrichment after moratorium – Once the moratorium expires, Iran would be limited to enriching at 3.67%. Any Iranian breach of the enrichment freeze would automatically extend the moratorium period (iran rejected this multiple times in public, and seems very unacceptable ❌).
3. No nuclear weapons pledge by Iran (✅)
4. No underground nuclear facilities (✅)
5. Iran agrees to a strengthened inspections, including snap UN inspections (✅)
6. Removal of highly enriched uranium from Iran to some other country (china/russia? But unlikely)
7. Lifting of U.S. sanctions (✅)
8. Release of frozen Iranian assets (✅)
9. Both sides would lift restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade, phased in during the 30-day period (possible)
13. Snapback safeguard – If negotiations collapse, the U.S. can restore the blockade or resume military action

More here about what's acceptable and what's not for new members of the channel: https://t.me/MonitoringSituation/4204

Core Point Nuclear is still in unacceptable range

IRGC Navy: With the end of threats, passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured

We thank the cooperation of captains and ship owners based in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman for passage through the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with Iran's regulations and the favorable participation of vessels in the security of regional navigation.

With the end of the aggressors' threats and under new procedures, safe and sustainable passage through the strait will be possible.

(they will allow ships to pass, but only in accordance with their rules and procedures ("new protocols in place"), it seems which are like pay toll, Israel not allowed and other conditions shared publicly but can wait for better clarity)

WTI DROPS BELOW 90
BRENT BELOW 100

IF the Axios report about a the US expecting a one-page MOU with Iran to end the war is true...

And IF Iran confirms...

And IF it is indeed signed...

And IF it is honoured...

And IF negotiations to reopen SoH succeed in the 30-day period...

And IF the agreement works to indeed reopen it..

And IF nothing derails the process again...

We MIGHT see some more oil starting to come out of the Persian Gulf in several weeks.

See how far we are?:

H/t VandanaHari_SG

(This is real progress by mr president these people are just jealous and refusing to accept it bc oil is dumping, go Mr crypto president Pakistan sources, AXIOS, TRUMP & 🍔 are with You)

Trump: Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.

TRUMP: IF IRAN DOESN'T AGREE TO DEAL, THE BOMBING STARTS AND IT WILL BE, SADLY, AT A MUCH HIGHER LEVEL AND INTENSITY THAN IT WAS BEFORE

FRENCH AIRCRAFT CARRIER GROUP MOVING INTO THE RED SEA IN PREPARATION FOR A POSSIBLE FUTURE MISSION AS PART OF THE FRANCO-BRITISH HORMUZ PLANNING - FRENCH ARMED FORCES MINISTRY

IRAN'S REZAEI (MILITARY ADVISER TO SUPREME LEADER?): AXIOS TEXT IS A WISHLIST OF THE AMERICANS RATHER THAN A REALITY

(He is very hardline leader so take with 🧂)

1hr ago: An email sent by Persian Gulf Strait Authority to several shipping companies whose ships are stranded in the Gulf:

Instructions for passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Ships intending to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must email info@PGSAdotir.

The most important points considered in the transit mechanism:

1) Priority of payment in Iran's national currency

2) Issuance of guarantees in Iranian banks

3) If a country caused damage to Iran in the recent war, it must first pay the damages before obtaining a passage permit. Countries that have sanctioned Iran or blocked Iran's money are not allowed passage.

4) The correct title "Persian Gulf" must be written in all documents.

5) Non-compliance with the above will result in seizure and a fine of 20% of the cargo value.

H/t https://x.com/Alihashem/status/2051982730745827445

IRAN STATE MEDIA: INFORMED SOURCE: IRAN HAS NOT YET GIVEN AN OFFICIAL RESPONSE TO THE LATEST U.S PROPOSAL

FRENCH AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN THE RED SEA IS READY TO HELP ESCORT SHIPS

And SPX ATH AS EXPECTED

The state of the Iran MOU talks according to WSJ:

1) Collate multiple docs into one-page, 14-point MOU

2) MOU would guide further talks, maybe in Islamabad

3) Iran showed more openness to discuss nuclear issues in ways closer to US position

4) Uranium enrichment remains sticking point (but both sides are negotiating on length)

5) Both sides are also discussing the possible removal of some of the high-enriched stockpiles abroad, though Iran remains opposed to any such transfer to the U.S., the Iranian official said.

Reports of an Israeli strike in Beirut. This would be the first IDF attack in this area since the ceasefire started: FN

With the authorization of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, the IDF has just carried out a strike in Beirut against the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force in order to neutralize him.

The White House wants a diplomatic breakthrough in Iran Talks by the time Trump wraps his China trip next Friday, officials say. If no deal is in hand by then, the president could again consider ordering military action: Axios

IRAN ISSUES MESSAGE TO COMMERCIAL VESSELS IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ SAYING IRAN'S PORTS FULLY PREPARED TO PROVIDE GENERAL MARITIME SERVICES AND SUPPORT TO THE VESSELS -IRNA

GHALIBAF: OPERATION TRUST ME BRO FAILED. NOW BACK TO ROUTINE WITH OPERATION FAUXIOS

https://x.com/i/status/2052153078426567170

Imo: Barak is right Axios memes are good and fun, but cmon at the end of the day, this guy is a journalist for Axios and CNN. Why are people trusting some random fake engagement account that regularly posts fake news? How stupid. And why is Barak even responding to such nonsense posts directed at Elon bucks?

FYI, oil started dumping like 1hr before the headline, the reason could be anything from 'trump post' some hrs before axios headline to hegseth saying operation is over to ceasefire is not over to Iran denying attacking UAE', etc. So many headlines are flying everywhere right now, it could literally be anything. And if the market has already decided that Axios is fake, then why did the market react to it at all??

If multiple people are engaged in a discussion this big, maybe it could get leaked, again not very surprising. But blaming a journalist for that is just crazy. Blame Trump or Pakistan sources, they probably leaked it, not Axios.

Article clearly said "U.S. expect a response from Tehran in the next 24-48 hours. "We are not far, but there is no deal yet" like discussions are taking place but can happen or not depending on Iran obv or trump not like axios declared SOH opened or declared war is over or something

things leak like "we expect this might happen"- not like "this is definitely happening." And "axios releasing article get ready" Oil was weak the whole time after Trump anyway. This is the exact same timeline as last time, when everyone was crying over the oil dump 20minutes before the Trump announcement about ceasefire But you know what happened, maybe there was some headline on some terminal, who knows. But please don't trash a journalist over some fake copy-pasta from a so-called "citizen journalist" working for Elon bucks. (And yes real deal and discussions takes time maybe trump administration is lying to Axios who knows but how could axios know about this? Maybe pakistan, Bloomberg, WSJ, Trump officials and Trump all are planning this theatre and even iran bc they also said we have received the new 14 point plan so maybe everyone is insider trading but yeah just blame a journalist and we all should trust a fking engagement fake account yeah right? Get your shit together guys don't spread such nonsense

Major Problem: people just don't read beyond headlines and then trust such baseless engagement baits over reading the articles, pls start reading long form text

Ref1: https://t.me/MonitoringSituation/4336

Ref2: https://t.me/MonitoringSituation/4482

Thank You