U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say: Axios

The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.

The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) is being negotiated between Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.

In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran's nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions.

Those negotiations could happen in Islamabad or Geneva, two sources said.

Iran's restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period, according to a U.S. official.

If the negotiations collapse, U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, the U.S. official said.

Two sources with knowledge also claimed Iran would agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country

(No way Lmaoo)

So tldr: U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet

14-point or something MOU:

1. End of war declaration, Start of 30d negotiation window (✅)
2. Iran commits to a long-term halt on uranium enrichment (under negotiation: U.S. demands 20y, Iran proposed 5y (allegedl); sources expect 12–15yrs). Low-level enrichment after moratorium – Once the moratorium expires, Iran would be limited to enriching at 3.67%. Any Iranian breach of the enrichment freeze would automatically extend the moratorium period (iran rejected this multiple times in public, and seems very unacceptable ❌).
3. No nuclear weapons pledge by Iran (✅)
4. No underground nuclear facilities (✅)
5. Iran agrees to a strengthened inspections, including snap UN inspections (✅)
6. Removal of highly enriched uranium from Iran to some other country (china/russia? But unlikely)
7. Lifting of U.S. sanctions (✅)
8. Release of frozen Iranian assets (✅)
9. Both sides would lift restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade, phased in during the 30-day period (possible)
13. Snapback safeguard – If negotiations collapse, the U.S. can restore the blockade or resume military action

More here about what's acceptable and what's not for new members of the channel: https://t.me/MonitoringSituation/4204

Core Point Nuclear is still in unacceptable range

IRGC Navy: With the end of threats, passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured

We thank the cooperation of captains and ship owners based in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman for passage through the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with Iran's regulations and the favorable participation of vessels in the security of regional navigation.

With the end of the aggressors' threats and under new procedures, safe and sustainable passage through the strait will be possible.

(they will allow ships to pass, but only in accordance with their rules and procedures ("new protocols in place"), it seems which are like pay toll, Israel not allowed and other conditions shared publicly but can wait for better clarity)

WTI DROPS BELOW 90
BRENT BELOW 100

IF the Axios report about a the US expecting a one-page MOU with Iran to end the war is true...

And IF Iran confirms...

And IF it is indeed signed...

And IF it is honoured...

And IF negotiations to reopen SoH succeed in the 30-day period...

And IF the agreement works to indeed reopen it..

And IF nothing derails the process again...

We MIGHT see some more oil starting to come out of the Persian Gulf in several weeks.

See how far we are?:

H/t VandanaHari_SG

(This is real progress by mr president these people are just jealous and refusing to accept it bc oil is dumping, go Mr crypto president Pakistan sources, AXIOS, TRUMP & 🍔 are with You)

Trump: Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.

TRUMP: IF IRAN DOESN'T AGREE TO DEAL, THE BOMBING STARTS AND IT WILL BE, SADLY, AT A MUCH HIGHER LEVEL AND INTENSITY THAN IT WAS BEFORE

FRENCH AIRCRAFT CARRIER GROUP MOVING INTO THE RED SEA IN PREPARATION FOR A POSSIBLE FUTURE MISSION AS PART OF THE FRANCO-BRITISH HORMUZ PLANNING - FRENCH ARMED FORCES MINISTRY

IRAN'S REZAEI (MILITARY ADVISER TO SUPREME LEADER?): AXIOS TEXT IS A WISHLIST OF THE AMERICANS RATHER THAN A REALITY

(He is very hardline leader so take with 🧂)

1hr ago: An email sent by Persian Gulf Strait Authority to several shipping companies whose ships are stranded in the Gulf:

Instructions for passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

Ships intending to pass through the Strait of Hormuz must email info@PGSAdotir.

The most important points considered in the transit mechanism:

1) Priority of payment in Iran's national currency

2) Issuance of guarantees in Iranian banks

3) If a country caused damage to Iran in the recent war, it must first pay the damages before obtaining a passage permit. Countries that have sanctioned Iran or blocked Iran's money are not allowed passage.

4) The correct title "Persian Gulf" must be written in all documents.

5) Non-compliance with the above will result in seizure and a fine of 20% of the cargo value.

H/t https://x.com/Alihashem/status/2051982730745827445

IRAN STATE MEDIA: INFORMED SOURCE: IRAN HAS NOT YET GIVEN AN OFFICIAL RESPONSE TO THE LATEST U.S PROPOSAL

FRENCH AIRCRAFT CARRIER IN THE RED SEA IS READY TO HELP ESCORT SHIPS

And SPX ATH AS EXPECTED

The state of the Iran MOU talks according to WSJ:

1) Collate multiple docs into one-page, 14-point MOU

2) MOU would guide further talks, maybe in Islamabad

3) Iran showed more openness to discuss nuclear issues in ways closer to US position

4) Uranium enrichment remains sticking point (but both sides are negotiating on length)

5) Both sides are also discussing the possible removal of some of the high-enriched stockpiles abroad, though Iran remains opposed to any such transfer to the U.S., the Iranian official said.

Reports of an Israeli strike in Beirut. This would be the first IDF attack in this area since the ceasefire started: FN

With the authorization of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and Defense Minister Israel Katz, the IDF has just carried out a strike in Beirut against the commander of Hezbollah’s Radwan Force in order to neutralize him.