(translation: Project Freedom failed and we obv cannot escort ships so back to war of attrition)

and NACHO

Some of the reasons why operation failed:

Reason1: A cargo ship in the Gulf region was hit by a possible land-attack cruise missile, causing several injuries among the ship's Filipino crew, two U.S. officials told CBS News (one of many attacks happened in the last 48hrs)

Reason2: most shipping companies do not trust the administration's assurances that a lane is now open https://t.me/MonitoringSituation/4850

Reason3: IRGC launched missiles at U.S. Warships https://t.me/MonitoringSituation/4861

Global oil stocks are now approaching their lowest level in eight years, according to Goldman Sachs. The bank added that there is only 45 days’ supply of refined products, such as gasoline, diesel and jet fuel left worldwide, noting particularly large declines across Asia and Africa.

In total, the oil market has lost 1bn barrels of crude due to the Iran war so far and while demand is falling fast, it is being “outstripped by the loss of supply”....

In northern Europe, stocks of jet fuel fell to a six-year low in April, according to pricing agency Argus, while in the US stocks of gasoline are on course to hit their lowest-ever level in summer, during the key driving season.

according to Morgan Stanley. The bank estimates that one in every 11 barrels of oil is used by American motorists and forecasts that US inventories could fall below 200mn barrels by the end of August, the equivalent of roughly one week of demand: FT

The announcement of the Project Freedom’ pause only exacerbates Trump’s dilemma.

“If he settles for a narrow deal on the strait and postpone[s] the nuclear talks, the US gives up the leverage generated by blockading Iranian ports. If he holds out for a more comprehensive deal, the global economic damage continues. If he returns to bombardment, he has to bet that [it] will bring Iran back to the negotiating table in a more concessionary way,” said Richard Fontaine, president of the Center for a New American Security think-tank. “That’s the dilemma.”

One former US Navy official said “the use of ships, aircraft and other capabilities did not deter Iran from attacks” and “adding more US or coalition forces to protect commercial shipping would not seem to decrease the risk to transiting the straits”: FT

"America Will Pay for Its Energy Arrogance": NYT

"But in the medium to long term, this crisis will create greater uncertainty over the stability of these energy sources. More countries will pursue alternatives, including clean energy technologies where China has a decisive edge. The United States could see its export market diminish as demand for oil and gas slows, threatening a trillion-dollar domestic industry and the thousands of jobs it provides. American consumers could also be stuck with polluting fuels prone to price spikes while the rest of the world moves on"

https://www.nytimes.com/2026/05/02/opinion/trump-us-oil-crisis-strait-of-hormuz.html

Global Flights

US GASOLINE TOPS $4.50/GALLON FOR FIRST TIME SINCE JULY 2022

ON A SEASONAL BASIS, PRICES ARE ALREADY AT AN ALL-TIME HIGH FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR

WTI DROPS BELOW 100

IRAN EMBASSY DENIES LINK TO KOREAN VESSEL DAMAGE IN HORMUZ - YTN

(who is attacking everyone on the behalf of Iran 😂)

Netanyahu bro dis u?

U.S. and Iran closing in on one-page memo to end war, officials say: Axios

The U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet, but the sources said this was the closest the parties had been to an agreement since the war began.

The one-page, 14-point memorandum of understanding (MOU) is being negotiated between Trump's envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner and several Iranian officials, both directly and through mediators.

In its current form, the MOU would declare an end to the war in the region and the start of a 30-day period of negotiations on a detailed agreement to open the strait, limit Iran's nuclear program and lift U.S. sanctions.

Those negotiations could happen in Islamabad or Geneva, two sources said.

Iran's restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade would be gradually lifted during that 30-day period, according to a U.S. official.

If the negotiations collapse, U.S. forces would be able to restore the blockade or resume military action, the U.S. official said.

Two sources with knowledge also claimed Iran would agree to remove its highly enriched uranium from the country

(No way Lmaoo)

So tldr: U.S. expects Iranian responses on several key points in the next 48 hours. Nothing has been agreed yet

14-point or something MOU:

1. End of war declaration, Start of 30d negotiation window (✅)
2. Iran commits to a long-term halt on uranium enrichment (under negotiation: U.S. demands 20y, Iran proposed 5y (allegedl); sources expect 12–15yrs). Low-level enrichment after moratorium – Once the moratorium expires, Iran would be limited to enriching at 3.67%. Any Iranian breach of the enrichment freeze would automatically extend the moratorium period (iran rejected this multiple times in public, and seems very unacceptable ❌).
3. No nuclear weapons pledge by Iran (✅)
4. No underground nuclear facilities (✅)
5. Iran agrees to a strengthened inspections, including snap UN inspections (✅)
6. Removal of highly enriched uranium from Iran to some other country (china/russia? But unlikely)
7. Lifting of U.S. sanctions (✅)
8. Release of frozen Iranian assets (✅)
9. Both sides would lift restrictions on shipping through the strait and the U.S. naval blockade, phased in during the 30-day period (possible)
13. Snapback safeguard – If negotiations collapse, the U.S. can restore the blockade or resume military action

More here about what's acceptable and what's not for new members of the channel: https://t.me/MonitoringSituation/4204

Core Point Nuclear is still in unacceptable range

IRGC Navy: With the end of threats, passage through the Strait of Hormuz will be ensured

We thank the cooperation of captains and ship owners based in the Persian Gulf and the Sea of Oman for passage through the Strait of Hormuz in accordance with Iran's regulations and the favorable participation of vessels in the security of regional navigation.

With the end of the aggressors' threats and under new procedures, safe and sustainable passage through the strait will be possible.

(they will allow ships to pass, but only in accordance with their rules and procedures ("new protocols in place"), it seems which are like pay toll, Israel not allowed and other conditions shared publicly but can wait for better clarity)

WTI DROPS BELOW 90
BRENT BELOW 100

IF the Axios report about a the US expecting a one-page MOU with Iran to end the war is true...

And IF Iran confirms...

And IF it is indeed signed...

And IF it is honoured...

And IF negotiations to reopen SoH succeed in the 30-day period...

And IF the agreement works to indeed reopen it..

And IF nothing derails the process again...

We MIGHT see some more oil starting to come out of the Persian Gulf in several weeks.

See how far we are?:

H/t VandanaHari_SG

(This is real progress by mr president these people are just jealous and refusing to accept it bc oil is dumping, go Mr crypto president Pakistan sources, AXIOS, TRUMP & 🍔 are with You)

Trump: Assuming Iran agrees to give what has been agreed to, which is, perhaps, a big assumption, the already legendary Epic Fury will be at an end, and the highly effective Blockade will allow the Hormuz Strait to be OPEN TO ALL, including Iran. If they don’t agree, the bombing starts, and it will be, sadly, at a much higher level and intensity than it was before.

TRUMP: IF IRAN DOESN'T AGREE TO DEAL, THE BOMBING STARTS AND IT WILL BE, SADLY, AT A MUCH HIGHER LEVEL AND INTENSITY THAN IT WAS BEFORE