Monitoring The Situation
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Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

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("world economy can bear any shock". fyi it absolutely cannot.

Powell during his last pres conference:

"we're in an unusually difficult situation so we've really had four supply shocks. You can -- actually, you can say more than four, but, at a minimum, we've -- we had the pandemic, we had the invasion of Ukraine, we had tariffs, and now we have Iran and the oil -- you know, the oil spike. So those -- every -- every supply shock has the capability of, right, driving inflation up and unemployment up. And what do you do? You know, you're -- it's -- the central bank has a really hard time knowing what to do"......."(Different views in fed) function of the extraordinarily challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with now for five, six years"....
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US NATIONAL DEBT SURPASSES SIZE OF THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GDP FOR FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II

By itself, the milestone doesn’t mean much. There isn’t a special level where debt goes from problematic to catastrophic. And the ratio might bounce around in coming quarters as tax receipts come in, tariff refunds go out and GDP fluctuates in response to inflation and revisions.

Still, the triple-digit mark is a potent symbol of the fiscal stresses on the U.S. that have been building for decades.

Without changes, the U.S. is headed toward debt ratios already reached in France, Italy, Greece and Japan, which have faced varying degrees of economic stress as a result. That said, the U.S. has more room to borrow than those countries because it controls the world’s reserve currency, and because of Treasury debt’s position as a haven for investors. (But that cushion isn’t unlimited)
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A senior UAE official said on Friday Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the Iran war remained at an impasse: reuters
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IRAN DELIVERED ITS LATEST PROPOSAL TO PAKISTAN LAST NIGHT

(How many proposals before something happens?)
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KASHKARI WARNS: OIL SHOCK COULD FORCE RATE HIKES

(No shit)
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Monitoring The Situation
IRAN DELIVERED ITS LATEST PROPOSAL TO PAKISTAN LAST NIGHT (How many proposals before something happens?)
(now axios and others reporting this as well (repeating it)

With ofc flashing red emojis everywhere)

But this means anything? Nope, absolutely nothing, just repeating same thing every week hoping for something)
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BRENT, WTI CRUDE FUTURES FALL AFTER (LATE) REPORT THAT IRAN HAS SENT ANOTHER PROPOSAL TO PAKISTAN FOR THE 4TH TIME IN A ROW FOR THE 4TH WEEK: COMMON SENSE NEWS TERMINAL
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the nuclear negotiations will not succeed under these circumstances, and it is likely that the focus will be on ending the war: Aljazeera Bureau Chief sources
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Pakistani officials say Iran's latest response to U.S. terms for a peace deal delivered to American officials

(So, flow is like this: iran > pakistan> U.S. > Trump > rejects (so far) > Iran starts again sending proposal next week)

Now trump probably going to truth nuke with we tried, we really tried but it just not enough, Iran has no leader...blah blah and starts or he announces iran really have leaders and they sent us a good proposal, this time so in return I'm removing the blockade)
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And The Axios Returns as Market Opens

On Monday, White House envoy Steve Witkoff sent Iran, through Pakistani intermediaries, a list of amendments focused on returning the nuclear issue to the agreement's text, according to a source familiar with the details

The source said that one of the amendments included a demand that Iran commit to not conducting any activity at its nuclear facilities that were bombed and not to attempt to touch any part of its enriched uranium stockpile as long as negotiations on these issues continue
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Majority of US military sites in Middle East damaged by Iran, CNN investigation reveals

At least 16 American military sites have been damaged in Iranian strikes, making up the majority of US positions in the Middle East, a new CNN investigation can reveal. The damage includes high-value targets, raising questions about America’s footprint in the region.
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Monitoring The Situation
BRENT, WTI CRUDE FUTURES FALL AFTER (LATE) REPORT THAT IRAN HAS SENT ANOTHER PROPOSAL TO PAKISTAN FOR THE 4TH TIME IN A ROW FOR THE 4TH WEEK: COMMON SENSE NEWS TERMINAL
One Iranian source told CNN that Tehran could see talks restarting if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz

The source said that Iran remains deeply distrustful of the US and did not understand why the US abandoned talks in Pakistan in the last round.

(Just like other 3, the 4th proposal is also same and depends on if mr crypto president wants to compromise or not)
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I AM PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE THAT, BASED ON THE FACT THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT COMPLYING WITH OUR FULLY AGREED TO TRADE DEAL, NEXT WEEK I WILL BE INCREASING TARIFFS CHARGED TO THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR CARS AND TRUCKS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES. THE TARIFF WILL BE INCREASED TO 25%. IT IS FULLY UNDERSTOOD AND AGREED THAT, IF THEY PRODUCE CARS AND TRUCKS IN U.S.A. PLANTS, THERE WILL BE NO TARIFF. MANY AUTOMOBILE AND TRUCK PLANTS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION, WITH OVER 100 BILLION DOLLARS BEING INVESTED, A RECORD IN THE HISTORY OF CAR AND TRUCK MANUFACTURING. THESE PLANTS, STAFFED WITH AMERICAN WORKERS, WILL BE OPENING SOON — THERE HAS NEVER BEEN ANYTHING LIKE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN AMERICA TODAY! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER: REALDONALDTRUMP
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TRUMP ON IRAN: NOT SATISFIED WITH LATEST PROPOSAL
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TRUMP: NOT SURE WE'RE GOING TO GET TO A DEAL
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" I DO NOT AGREE AT ALL WITH THE NEW IRANIAN AGREEMENT. I DON'T THINK WE'LL MAKE IT, THERE ARE TOO MANY DISAGREEMENTS" - DONALD TRUMP
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TRUMP: [IRAN] HAS MADE STRIVES [TOWARDS A DEAL], BUT I'M NOT SURE THEY'LL EVER GET THERE. IRAN HAS 2-3 GROUPS, MAYBE 4, ITS A VERY DISJOINTED LEADERSHIP
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TRUMP: HORMUZ STRAIT IS 100% SHUT DOWN
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TRUMP ON POTENTIAL IRAN STRIKES : WHY WOULD I TELL YOU
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