Do I think Japan will intervene in the Oil futures? No. It would open a can of worms, with oil exporters then looking to do the opposite and intervene to take the other side making it a broken market and no longer a useful hedging tool. But unfortunately we can't rule anything out in the modern era!
....we won't know until they make it public via comments or the data (can be said for oil as well)
Just few minutes ago looks like boj again Intervened in JPY (oil also dumped similarly so...🥁)
https://x.com/i/status/2050110198061367386
....we won't know until they make it public via comments or the data (can be said for oil as well)
Just few minutes ago looks like boj again Intervened in JPY (oil also dumped similarly so...🥁)
https://x.com/i/status/2050110198061367386
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8hrs ago: Japan’s top currency official said authorities in Tokyo are maintaining readiness to intervene in the crude oil futures market, where speculative moves have been affecting the currency
“Generally speaking, we are always ready to act regarding crude oil futures transactions,” Atsushi Mimura, vice finance minister for international affairs, said Friday.
Japan stepped into the currency market on Thursday to buy yen and bolster the currency, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Economic officials in the US were notified ahead of the intervention, according to another person familiar with the matter: Bloomberg
(And looks like it's happening/happened or will)
“Generally speaking, we are always ready to act regarding crude oil futures transactions,” Atsushi Mimura, vice finance minister for international affairs, said Friday.
Japan stepped into the currency market on Thursday to buy yen and bolster the currency, according to a person familiar with the matter.
Economic officials in the US were notified ahead of the intervention, according to another person familiar with the matter: Bloomberg
(And looks like it's happening/happened or will)
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BOJ DATA POINT TO FX INTERVENTION OF ABOUT 5.4 TRILLION YEN
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Oil markets are still in La La land: economist
.....traders must believe three things are true: that America and Iran will soon strike a peace deal; that their agreement will reopen Hormuz; and that, soon after the strait is clear, petrol and jet fuel will once again be plentiful. All those are in doubt....
The Economist is loth to second-guess those who have the facts to hand and billions of dollars at stake. However, markets have a poor record of pricing geopolitical risk. And with oil, they struggle to assess the complexities of the physical trade.
Even if a deal is in both countries’ interest, it could be hard to nail down. Each side may be underestimating the other. Mr Trump seems to think he holds all the cards. But Iran has endured long disruptions to its oil exports before, at the onset of Mr Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign in 2018. Iran is not a democracy and the regime can survive while its people suffer. It has an incentive to hold out in the hope of a good offer for as long as it can. Mr Trump can resume the bombing, but that is as likely to delay a deal as catalyse one.
Likewise, with midterm elections looming in America, Iran’s leaders may think that Mr Trump cannot tolerate a high oil price. Yet Mr Trump is selfish. He may try to constrain price rises at home by limiting exports of refined products. The midterms are already lost, in the House at least, he may think. He is surely less bothered about the careers of Republican politicians than his own humiliation if he strikes a nuclear deal with Iran that looks worse than Barack Obama’s in 2015. His latest signal to Iran is that he is hunkering down for a long blockade.
Even if a deal is struck, the strait may not completely re-open. For one thing, the fearsome details of a nuclear pact will take months to negotiate. Now that Iran has discovered that it has leverage, it may be tempted to apply pressure with threats to close the strait again. And threats can lead to attacks. Perhaps Mr Trump will put the eradication of the nuclear programme before the complete re-opening of the strait—after all, America is an energy exporter. Supposing that America agreed to let Iran treat Hormuz as a tollgate, what then?
And even if the strait is open in principle, getting fuel into fuel tanks in practice will remain vulnerable to many unknowable delays. You can expect a rush of oil as waiting tankers escape fully laden into the Indian Ocean. But for empty tankers to return to the Persian Gulf will be more complicated. Many will have taken up bookings on other routes. The strait will need demining, which could take months. Insurance rates could be prohibitive, so governments may need to organise a scheme to cover extreme risks. Shutting down production could have damaged oil wells. Restoring output will also take time. Partially mothballed refineries won’t immediately return to full capacity.
Bullish investors could be in for a nasty shock, too. The recovery from covid, Europe’s adaptation to the loss of most Russian gas and Mr Trump’s moderation of his tariffs have all led traders to trust that things always work themselves out. Amid strong corporate profits in America it may seem as if the world economy can bear any shock—and that Mr Trump will obviously back down before a catastrophe. The pain of a scenario that oil analysts have feared for decades is approaching. It will not be pretty. Get ready.
.....traders must believe three things are true: that America and Iran will soon strike a peace deal; that their agreement will reopen Hormuz; and that, soon after the strait is clear, petrol and jet fuel will once again be plentiful. All those are in doubt....
The Economist is loth to second-guess those who have the facts to hand and billions of dollars at stake. However, markets have a poor record of pricing geopolitical risk. And with oil, they struggle to assess the complexities of the physical trade.
Even if a deal is in both countries’ interest, it could be hard to nail down. Each side may be underestimating the other. Mr Trump seems to think he holds all the cards. But Iran has endured long disruptions to its oil exports before, at the onset of Mr Trump’s “maximum pressure” sanctions campaign in 2018. Iran is not a democracy and the regime can survive while its people suffer. It has an incentive to hold out in the hope of a good offer for as long as it can. Mr Trump can resume the bombing, but that is as likely to delay a deal as catalyse one.
Likewise, with midterm elections looming in America, Iran’s leaders may think that Mr Trump cannot tolerate a high oil price. Yet Mr Trump is selfish. He may try to constrain price rises at home by limiting exports of refined products. The midterms are already lost, in the House at least, he may think. He is surely less bothered about the careers of Republican politicians than his own humiliation if he strikes a nuclear deal with Iran that looks worse than Barack Obama’s in 2015. His latest signal to Iran is that he is hunkering down for a long blockade.
Even if a deal is struck, the strait may not completely re-open. For one thing, the fearsome details of a nuclear pact will take months to negotiate. Now that Iran has discovered that it has leverage, it may be tempted to apply pressure with threats to close the strait again. And threats can lead to attacks. Perhaps Mr Trump will put the eradication of the nuclear programme before the complete re-opening of the strait—after all, America is an energy exporter. Supposing that America agreed to let Iran treat Hormuz as a tollgate, what then?
And even if the strait is open in principle, getting fuel into fuel tanks in practice will remain vulnerable to many unknowable delays. You can expect a rush of oil as waiting tankers escape fully laden into the Indian Ocean. But for empty tankers to return to the Persian Gulf will be more complicated. Many will have taken up bookings on other routes. The strait will need demining, which could take months. Insurance rates could be prohibitive, so governments may need to organise a scheme to cover extreme risks. Shutting down production could have damaged oil wells. Restoring output will also take time. Partially mothballed refineries won’t immediately return to full capacity.
Bullish investors could be in for a nasty shock, too. The recovery from covid, Europe’s adaptation to the loss of most Russian gas and Mr Trump’s moderation of his tariffs have all led traders to trust that things always work themselves out. Amid strong corporate profits in America it may seem as if the world economy can bear any shock—and that Mr Trump will obviously back down before a catastrophe. The pain of a scenario that oil analysts have feared for decades is approaching. It will not be pretty. Get ready.
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("world economy can bear any shock". fyi it absolutely cannot.
Powell during his last pres conference:
"we're in an unusually difficult situation so we've really had four supply shocks. You can -- actually, you can say more than four, but, at a minimum, we've -- we had the pandemic, we had the invasion of Ukraine, we had tariffs, and now we have Iran and the oil -- you know, the oil spike. So those -- every -- every supply shock has the capability of, right, driving inflation up and unemployment up. And what do you do? You know, you're -- it's -- the central bank has a really hard time knowing what to do"......."(Different views in fed) function of the extraordinarily challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with now for five, six years"....
Powell during his last pres conference:
"we're in an unusually difficult situation so we've really had four supply shocks. You can -- actually, you can say more than four, but, at a minimum, we've -- we had the pandemic, we had the invasion of Ukraine, we had tariffs, and now we have Iran and the oil -- you know, the oil spike. So those -- every -- every supply shock has the capability of, right, driving inflation up and unemployment up. And what do you do? You know, you're -- it's -- the central bank has a really hard time knowing what to do"......."(Different views in fed) function of the extraordinarily challenging set of supply shocks that we've been dealing with now for five, six years"....
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US NATIONAL DEBT SURPASSES SIZE OF THE ENTIRE UNITED STATES GDP FOR FIRST TIME SINCE WORLD WAR II
By itself, the milestone doesn’t mean much. There isn’t a special level where debt goes from problematic to catastrophic. And the ratio might bounce around in coming quarters as tax receipts come in, tariff refunds go out and GDP fluctuates in response to inflation and revisions.
Still, the triple-digit mark is a potent symbol of the fiscal stresses on the U.S. that have been building for decades.
Without changes, the U.S. is headed toward debt ratios already reached in France, Italy, Greece and Japan, which have faced varying degrees of economic stress as a result. That said, the U.S. has more room to borrow than those countries because it controls the world’s reserve currency, and because of Treasury debt’s position as a haven for investors. (But that cushion isn’t unlimited)
By itself, the milestone doesn’t mean much. There isn’t a special level where debt goes from problematic to catastrophic. And the ratio might bounce around in coming quarters as tax receipts come in, tariff refunds go out and GDP fluctuates in response to inflation and revisions.
Still, the triple-digit mark is a potent symbol of the fiscal stresses on the U.S. that have been building for decades.
Without changes, the U.S. is headed toward debt ratios already reached in France, Italy, Greece and Japan, which have faced varying degrees of economic stress as a result. That said, the U.S. has more room to borrow than those countries because it controls the world’s reserve currency, and because of Treasury debt’s position as a haven for investors. (But that cushion isn’t unlimited)
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A senior UAE official said on Friday Tehran could not be trusted over any unilateral arrangements it makes for the Strait of Hormuz, in a sign of deep mistrust on all sides as efforts to end the Iran war remained at an impasse: reuters
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IRAN DELIVERED ITS LATEST PROPOSAL TO PAKISTAN LAST NIGHT
(How many proposals before something happens?)
(How many proposals before something happens?)
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KASHKARI WARNS: OIL SHOCK COULD FORCE RATE HIKES
(No shit)
(No shit)
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Monitoring The Situation
IRAN DELIVERED ITS LATEST PROPOSAL TO PAKISTAN LAST NIGHT (How many proposals before something happens?)
(now axios and others reporting this as well (repeating it)
With ofc flashing red emojis everywhere)
But this means anything? Nope, absolutely nothing, just repeating same thing every week hoping for something)
With ofc flashing red emojis everywhere)
But this means anything? Nope, absolutely nothing, just repeating same thing every week hoping for something)
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BRENT, WTI CRUDE FUTURES FALL AFTER (LATE) REPORT THAT IRAN HAS SENT ANOTHER PROPOSAL TO PAKISTAN FOR THE 4TH TIME IN A ROW FOR THE 4TH WEEK: COMMON SENSE NEWS TERMINAL
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the nuclear negotiations will not succeed under these circumstances, and it is likely that the focus will be on ending the war: Aljazeera Bureau Chief sources
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Monitoring The Situation
In less than 2 weeks Saudi Arabia has: - Pulled funding from LIV Golf - Withdrawn from $200M deal with Metropolitan Opera In large part, both moves reflect strain from Iran war. But hard to separate from geopolitics, mainly Saudi frustrations with Trump…
Middle East Updated Map of Friends and Enemies
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Pakistani officials say Iran's latest response to U.S. terms for a peace deal delivered to American officials
(So, flow is like this: iran > pakistan> U.S. > Trump > rejects (so far) > Iran starts again sending proposal next week)
Now trump probably going to truth nuke with we tried, we really tried but it just not enough, Iran has no leader...blah blah and starts or he announces iran really have leaders and they sent us a good proposal, this time so in return I'm removing the blockade)
(So, flow is like this: iran > pakistan> U.S. > Trump > rejects (so far) > Iran starts again sending proposal next week)
Now trump probably going to truth nuke with we tried, we really tried but it just not enough, Iran has no leader...blah blah and starts or he announces iran really have leaders and they sent us a good proposal, this time so in return I'm removing the blockade)
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And The Axios Returns as Market Opens
On Monday, White House envoy Steve Witkoff sent Iran, through Pakistani intermediaries, a list of amendments focused on returning the nuclear issue to the agreement's text, according to a source familiar with the details
The source said that one of the amendments included a demand that Iran commit to not conducting any activity at its nuclear facilities that were bombed and not to attempt to touch any part of its enriched uranium stockpile as long as negotiations on these issues continue
On Monday, White House envoy Steve Witkoff sent Iran, through Pakistani intermediaries, a list of amendments focused on returning the nuclear issue to the agreement's text, according to a source familiar with the details
The source said that one of the amendments included a demand that Iran commit to not conducting any activity at its nuclear facilities that were bombed and not to attempt to touch any part of its enriched uranium stockpile as long as negotiations on these issues continue
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Majority of US military sites in Middle East damaged by Iran, CNN investigation reveals
At least 16 American military sites have been damaged in Iranian strikes, making up the majority of US positions in the Middle East, a new CNN investigation can reveal. The damage includes high-value targets, raising questions about America’s footprint in the region.
At least 16 American military sites have been damaged in Iranian strikes, making up the majority of US positions in the Middle East, a new CNN investigation can reveal. The damage includes high-value targets, raising questions about America’s footprint in the region.
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Monitoring The Situation
BRENT, WTI CRUDE FUTURES FALL AFTER (LATE) REPORT THAT IRAN HAS SENT ANOTHER PROPOSAL TO PAKISTAN FOR THE 4TH TIME IN A ROW FOR THE 4TH WEEK: COMMON SENSE NEWS TERMINAL
One Iranian source told CNN that Tehran could see talks restarting if the US lifts its blockade of Iranian ports and Iran fully reopens the Strait of Hormuz
The source said that Iran remains deeply distrustful of the US and did not understand why the US abandoned talks in Pakistan in the last round.
(Just like other 3, the 4th proposal is also same and depends on if mr crypto president wants to compromise or not)
The source said that Iran remains deeply distrustful of the US and did not understand why the US abandoned talks in Pakistan in the last round.
(Just like other 3, the 4th proposal is also same and depends on if mr crypto president wants to compromise or not)
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I AM PLEASED TO ANNOUNCE THAT, BASED ON THE FACT THE EUROPEAN UNION IS NOT COMPLYING WITH OUR FULLY AGREED TO TRADE DEAL, NEXT WEEK I WILL BE INCREASING TARIFFS CHARGED TO THE EUROPEAN UNION FOR CARS AND TRUCKS COMING INTO THE UNITED STATES. THE TARIFF WILL BE INCREASED TO 25%. IT IS FULLY UNDERSTOOD AND AGREED THAT, IF THEY PRODUCE CARS AND TRUCKS IN U.S.A. PLANTS, THERE WILL BE NO TARIFF. MANY AUTOMOBILE AND TRUCK PLANTS ARE CURRENTLY UNDER CONSTRUCTION, WITH OVER 100 BILLION DOLLARS BEING INVESTED, A RECORD IN THE HISTORY OF CAR AND TRUCK MANUFACTURING. THESE PLANTS, STAFFED WITH AMERICAN WORKERS, WILL BE OPENING SOON — THERE HAS NEVER BEEN ANYTHING LIKE WHAT IS HAPPENING IN AMERICA TODAY! THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER: REALDONALDTRUMP
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