Monitoring The Situation
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Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

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FED'S POWELL: WAITING TO SEE WHAT HAPPENS WITH EVENTS IN THE MIDDLE EAST
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IRGC: CARRIED OUT SEVEN MISSILE OPERATIONS AGAINST THE USS ABRAHAM LINCOLN AND (NOW) THE UNITED STATES UNABLE FOR A PERIOD OF TIME TO LAUNCH ITS AIRCRAFT OR CONDUCT AIR OPERATIONS

IRGC SPOX: WE HAVE CLOSED THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ, AND IF U.S. COME FURTHER, WE WILL QUICKLY TAKE OPERATIONAL ACTION
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IDF CURRENTLY TAKING CONTROL OF THE FLOTILLA THAT TRIED TO BREAK THE NAVAL BLOCKADE ON GAZA

(Again for the 3rd time now I think?)
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US TREASURY SECRETARY BESSENT: CONSUMERS AND THE STOCK MARKET ARE LOOKING THROUGH IRAN
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US SEEKS FORFEITURE OF IRAN-LINKED OIL TANKERS SEIZED AT SEA
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GHALIBAF: โ€˜3 DAYS IN, NO WELL EXPLODED.WE COULD EXTEND TO 30 AND LIVESTREAM THE WELL HERE. THAT WAS THE KIND OF JUNK ADVICE THE US ADMIN GETS FROM PEOPLE LIKE BESSENT WHO ALSO PUSH THE BLOCKADE THEORY AND CRANKED OIL UP TO $120+. NEXT STOP:140. THE ISSUE ISN'T THE THEORY, IT'S THE MINDSET.โ€™
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Monitoring The Situation
IDF issues evacuation warning for about 15 villages in southern Lebanon ahead of an attack
IDF orders the evacuation of eight more villages in southern Lebanon.
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30mins ago: US Central Command commander Brad Cooper will provide a briefing to Trump on military options against Iran, a source familiar with the details told i24NEWS (Israeli Media)

The briefing says that Trump is seriously considering, alongside the blockade, the military option and wants to hear what the military options are.
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WHITE HOUSE IN ACTIVE CONVERSATIONS WITH CONGRESSIONAL LAWMAKERS REGARDING TODAYS DEADLINE TO REQUEST 30 DAY REAUTHORIZATION FOR IRAN WAR: WASHINGTON EXAMINER REPORTER
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TRUMP SAYS ANYBODY RUNNING FOR PRESIDENT OR VICE PRESIDENT SHOULD BE FORCED TO TAKE A COGNITIVE EXAMINATION PRIOR TO ENTERING THE RACE
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TRUMP: I TOOK THE EXAM THREE TIMES DURING MY (โ€œTHREE!โ€) TERMS AS PRESIDENT, AND ACED IT ALL THREE TIMES
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THREE terms as president?
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he is going for 3rd)
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In less than 2 weeks Saudi Arabia has:

- Pulled funding from LIV Golf
- Withdrawn from $200M deal with Metropolitan Opera

In large part, both moves reflect strain from Iran war. But hard to separate from geopolitics, mainly Saudi frustrations with Trump & widening rift with UAE: Joyce_Karam

Add to these increased Saudi-Egypt-Turkey-Pakistan meetings and coordination and a Saudi push in Lebanon to sway Beirut talks with Israel, and we might be witnessing beginning of a larger pivot by Riyadh
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TRUMP: NEW STOCK MARKET HIGH DESPITE WHAT SOME CALL A WAR

TRUMP: DON'T WANT TO CALL IT A WAR

TRUMP: IRAN DYING TO MAKE A DEAL

TRUMP: COUNTRY DOING WELL DESPITE 'MILITARY OPERATION'

TRUMP: IRAN IN VERY BAD SHAPE

TODAY: NOBODY KNOWS WHO IRAN'S LEADERS ARE

YESTERDAY: HAVING TALKS WITH IRAN NOW
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30mins to 1hr ago: The UAE calls on its citizens in Iran, Lebanon and Iraq to depart the countries "immediately" due to developments in the region, according to UAE's Ministry of Foreign Affairs: FN

Announced Travel Ban for Emiratis to Iran, Lebanon, and Iraq
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Do I think Japan will intervene in the Oil futures? No. It would open a can of worms, with oil exporters then looking to do the opposite and intervene to take the other side making it a broken market and no longer a useful hedging tool. But unfortunately we can't rule anything out in the modern era!

....we won't know until they make it public via comments or the data (can be said for oil as well)

Just few minutes ago looks like boj again Intervened in JPY (oil also dumped similarly so...๐Ÿฅ)

https://x.com/i/status/2050110198061367386
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8hrs ago: Japanโ€™s top currency official said authorities in Tokyo are maintaining readiness to intervene in the crude oil futures market, where speculative moves have been affecting the currency

โ€œGenerally speaking, we are always ready to act regarding crude oil futures transactions,โ€ Atsushi Mimura, vice finance minister for international affairs, said Friday.

Japan stepped into the currency market on Thursday to buy yen and bolster the currency, according to a person familiar with the matter.

Economic officials in the US were notified ahead of the intervention, according to another person familiar with the matter: Bloomberg

(And looks like it's happening/happened or will)
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BOJ DATA POINT TO FX INTERVENTION OF ABOUT 5.4 TRILLION YEN
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JPM: The illusion of plenty (oil)

.....Out of the 8.4 billion barrels in global inventories, JPMorgan estimates only 0.8 billion barrels are realistically available without pushing the system into operational stress....
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