(imo -ve slightly (little bit) because SOH will be still closed

But overall 🍔 news,

Ceasefire means absolutely nothing unless SOH opens

TRUMP DOING HEADLINE TERRORISM )

Khamenei is expected to give his response to the latest proposal on Wednesday, Israeli source to Axios

Two vessels were attacked by IRGC this morning as they tried to cross Strait of Hormuz

Also Confirmed by UKMTO

April 17/20: The world has lost over $50 billion worth of crude oil that has not been produced since the Iran ‌war began nearly 50 days ago and the aftershock of the crisis will be felt for months and even years to come, according to analysts and Reuters calculations.

Since the crisis began at the end of February, more than 500 million barrels of crude and condensate have been knocked out of the global ⁠market, according to Kpler data

Put differently, 500 million barrels of oil lost to the market is equivalent to:

- Curtailing aviation demand globally for 10 weeks; no road travel by any vehicle globally for 11 days; or no oil for the global economy for five days, said Iain Mowat, principal analyst at Wood Mackenzie.
- Nearly a month of oil demand in the United States, or more than a month of oil for all of Europe, according to Reuters estimates.
- Roughly six years of fuel consumption for the U.S. military, based on annual usage of about 80 million barrels from fiscal year 2021.
- Enough fuel to run the world's international shipping industry for around four months.

* With crude prices averaging around $100 a barrel since the conflict began, those missing volumes represent roughly $50 billion ⁠in lost revenues, said Johannes Rauball, a senior crude analyst at Kpler. That equates to a 1% cut in Germany's annual gross domestic product, or roughly the entire GDP of smaller countries such as Latvia or Estonia.

* Heavier crude fields in Kuwait and Iraq could take four to five months to return ⁠to normal operating levels, extending stock draws through the summer, Rauball said. Damage to refining capacity and Qatar’s Ras Laffan LNG complex means full restoration of regional energy infrastructure could take years.

SOH effectively Closed

fyi: nobody gives a fck about Ceasefire, Iran did not ask for an extension of the ceasefire at all)

Time Is Running Out

Russia is planning to halt the flow of Kazakh oil to Germany through the Druzhba pipeline, threatening a refinery that supplies almost all of Berlin’s petrol and heating fuel.

The move will hit the PCK refinery, it supplies 90% of the petrol, kerosene and heating fuel to the German capital, its airport and surrounding region: FT

IRGC Navy seized two violating ships and transferred them to the coast of Iran: Iran State Media

EPAMINODES and MSC-FRANCESCA

Few hrs ago: Iran Attacks Third Ship in Strait of Hormuz

The Iran war has caused a shortage of Diet Coke in India, where it is sold only in aluminium cans that ‌have run short because of delayed shipments from the Gulf caused by the Iran war.

+ The world’s biggest condom maker said it would raise the prices of prophylactics, lubricant jelly and catheters by up to 30 per cent due to the knock-on effects of the Middle East war

Trump tells The NYP second round of talks ‘possible’ as soon as Friday

Trump in a text message said: “It’s possible! President DJT.”

Trump lied again: Iran State Media

Trump extended Ceasefire for just 3-5 days per white house official

Context: mr president forgot to mention duration in the truth post yesterday so

Translation: Trump Extended Ceasefire Until Friday Close

OIL UP
SPX UP
BTC UP
VIX UP
DXY UP
IRAN UP
TRUMP UP
MONITORINGSITUATION UP

Israel Killed Another Journalist Today In A Targeted, double tapped attack and then hit responders with stun grenades to prevent her ('Amal Khalil') rescue per Al Jazeera reporter

Israeli army also fired at ambulances trying to reach her, delaying her rescue according to 'The Guardian' reporter

7hrs ago: United Airlines CEO said on Wednesday ticket prices may need ​to rise by as much as 15% to 20% to offset a surge ‌in jet fuel costs, signaling a significant test of consumers' willingness to absorb higher fares as the industry grapples with volatile oil prices.

Former UK Energy Minister:

Loss of demand for oil during COVID: 8mbd (on avg.)

Loss of supply today through Strait of Hormuz: 11mbd

* 11mbd figure confirmed by Goldman Sachs as well and it accounts responses like SPR release, sanctioned oil, etc) so even after that it's 11m (huge deal) (actually it's 12m acc. To GS)

BRENT AT 103
WTI AT 94

FIRST REVENUE FROM THE STRAIT OF HORMUZ TOLLS WAS DEPOSITED INTO THE CENTRAL BANK: IRAN STATE MEDIA

Bloomberg in last 12hrs:

If BTC pumps: optimism over ceasefire (yesterday)

If BTC dumps: market now focused on Strait of Hormuz (this morning)

Trump: I have ordered the United States Navy to shoot and kill any boat, small boats though they may be (Their naval ships are ALL, 159 of them, at the bottom of the sea!), that is putting mines in the waters of the Strait of Hormuz. There is to be no hesitation. Additionally, our mine “sweepers” are clearing the Strait right now. I am hereby ordering that activity to continue, but at a tripled up level! Thank you for your attention to this matter.