Monitoring The Situation
6.78K subscribers
250 photos
34 videos
1 file
338 links
Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

X: @MonitoringSitu
Download Telegram
A senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran said the paramilitary force isn’t opposed in principle to a resumption of talks but it wants Iran to go into those talks with greater leverage

An Arab official in the region said the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is seeking to secure a grand pact with the U.S. that would ultimately normalize relationships between the two countries
👍6
Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper.
Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down.
🤣22🔥8😭61
Iran-US Negotiations Will Happen This Week?
Anonymous Poll
57%
Yes
43%
No
1🤣3
Two giant U.S. C-17 cargo planes landed at an air base on Sunday afternoon, carrying security equipment and vehicles in preparation for the U.S. delegation's arrival, two Pakistani ⁠security sources said. A U.S. team of security staff and officials arrived overnight in Islamabad, officials said. Nearly 20k security personnel have been deployed, with hotels and hostels around the talks venue and routes cleared, and public transport suspended in Islamabad: reuters
1👍1
Iran FM Spox: We submitted a 10-point proposal to Pakistan

Iranian Foreign Ministry Spokesman: We will make the appropriate decision regarding the negotiations precisely while taking our interests into consideration (No decision made yet, (ofc)
👀6😁3
IRAN: FORCES AVOIDED IMMEDIATE RETALIATION FOR ALLEGED US SHIP ATTACK DUE TO FAMILIES ON BOARD, VOWS FUTURE RESPONSE
🤣20🔥3🥱2
U.S. officials say that despite the public bluster, the US and Iran have made strides toward a deal since the first round of negotiations on April 12th: NYT- FN
😁133🤨2😭1
30min ago: Iran willing to attend second round of talks with US, Pakistan officials say: AP

Iran’s refusal of second round of US peace talks was ‘posturing’: Pakistani sources: NYP

Also for the first time Chinese President Xi Jinping has publicly called for the reopening of the SoH
10🤣9
TEHRAN TACO
🤣45😁17😭5🙉3
Iran reopens main airports in capital Tehran: aviation authority.

Additionally, ten other airports across the country will reopen on Saturday.
👍53🤣2
Trump: if Iran’s new leaders (Regime Change!) are smart, Iran can have a great and prosperous future!
🤣14
Monitoring The Situation
(you guys forgot what he said few days ago so quickly??)
9am: Trump says Vance already left for Pakistan

10am: CNN says Vance not left Pakistan yet

10:30am: Trump says vance will leave later on Monday

11am: CNN, NYT says Vance will for Pakistan on Tuesday

xAM: waiting for Trump reply....
1😭12🤣11🤯41😁1
India: 10 of our ships safely crossed Strait of Hormuz following coordination with Iran.
👍8🔥8
An Iranian delegation is making plans to travel to Islamabad on Tuesday for negotiations with the United States, according to two senior Iranian officials familiar with the plans. Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf leading the talks, will attend if VP Vance also attends: NYT
🔥7🤣6
TRUMP: THE DEAL THAT WE ARE MAKING WITH IRAN WILL BE FAR BETTER THAN THE JCPOA, COMMONLY REFERRED TO AS “THE IRAN NUCLEAR DEAL,” PENNED BY BARACK HUSSEIN OBAMA AND SLEEPY JOE BIDEN, ONE OF THE WORST DEALS EVER MADE HAVING TO DO WITH THE SECURITY OF OUR COUNTRY
🤣23😁21🙏1
TRUMP: I AM UNDER NO PRESSURE TO MAKE A DEAL. THIS IS NOT TRUE! I AM UNDER NO PRESSURE WHATSOEVER
🤣27
Trump wants it done. He doesn't like Iran holding [its control of the strait] over the Middle East. He doesn't like them holding this over our heads. He doesn't want to fight anymore. But he will if he feels he has to," an administration official told Axios
6👍2🔥2😁2
TRUMP DOESN'T WANT TO FIGHT ANYMORE
😭25😁125🔥3
Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: We do not accept negotiations under the shadow of threats, and in the past two weeks, we have prepared to reveal new cards on the battlefield.

(Tldr: Tommorow/Wednesday he will be there in Pakistan for talks) Unless Vance Cancels the Trip to Pakistan not expected but ...yk)
🔥7🥱3😁21👍1🤣1
Trump’s Five Options for the Iran War:

1. Stick to his guns: Trump has presented Iran with demands to freeze enrichment of uranium for at least 20 years and remove highly enriched uranium from its territory, as well as fully end its blockade of the Strait of Hormuz. These are red lines for the president, senior administration officials said......But so far, the Iranian gov has refused to ease its blockade of the strait and signaled it will not abandon its nuclear enrichment program. If Trump refuses to budge on these demands, there’s a chance that Iran relents in negotiations—but also a risk Iran refuses and war breaks out again.

2. Buy some time: Both sides could walk away from the talks in Islamabad without a final deal, but at least a “memorandum of understanding” that outlines the broad parameters of what an understanding could entail in the future and an agreement to extend the 10-day cease-fire in the war again. This would buy time for more diplomacy.

3. Compromise: There are ample ways to hash out a compromise, officials and analysts said. One idea negotiators are floating: Iran agrees to a 20-year freeze on enriching uranium to higher levels, but after the first 10 years can conduct nuclear-related research or produce a modest amount of low-enriched uranium for at least another 10 years. Other variations of compromise could include Iran agreeing to give up its stockpile of 60% or 20% enriched uranium, but keeping its stockpile of lower-enriched uranium. It’s unclear if Trump would accept compromise proposals here. There’s no discounting the likelihood Iran secretly enriches to weapons-grade levels again in the future.

4. Restart war: Trump has warned that he isn’t inclined to extend the cease-fire again if talks in Pakistan fail. Renewing the war would open Iran to another round of devastating strikes, but it carries risks for the U.S., too. The war is controversial at home, opening rifts within the Republican Party and driving up energy prices and inflation across the U.S. Defense officials have also raised fears of the U.S. running low on critical munitions in the Iran war that would be needed for the U.S. military in other parts of the world.

5. Walk away: just walk away from the whole endeavor is the most unlikely, U.S. officials and people close to the White House said, but it’s a fear that senior Arab and European officials have raised in private discussions among one another after the first round of talks failed. Trump could claim victory and walk away from the war, leaving a status quo that amounts to a nightmare scenario for many close U.S. partners: A wounded but intact Iranian regime, with an ability to keep imposing tolls on the Strait of Hormuz and the know-how to rebuild a nuclear program.
8👍8