Monitoring The Situation
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Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

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IRAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER QALIBAF SAYS TEHRAN CONFRONTED U.S. MINE-CLEARING ATTEMPT IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ, CONSIDERS IT CEASEFIRE VIOLATION
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IRANIAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER QALIBAF SAYS U.S. MINE-CLEARING VESSEL RETREATED AFTER IRAN THREATENED TO FIRE
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IRANIAN PARLIAMENT SPEAKER QALIBAF WARNS IF U.S. DOES NOT LIFT BLOCKADE TRAFFIC IN STRAIT OF HORMUZ WILL DEFINITELY BE RESTRICTED
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IRGC NAVY ANNOUNCES STRAIT OF HORMUZ BLOCKED FROM THIS AFTERNOON UNTIL U.S. LIFTS NAVAL BLOCKADE OF IRANIAN VESSELS AND PORTS

IRAN WARNS NO VESSEL SHOULD MOVE FROM ANCHORAGE IN PERSIAN GULF OR SEA OF OMAN, APPROACHING HORMUZ CONSIDERED COOPERATION WITH ENEMY
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On the rescue mission of downed pilots

"Trump screamed at aides for hours..........Aides kept the president out of the situation room as they got minute-by-minute updates because they believed his impatience wouldn’t be helpful, instead updating him at meaningful moments, a senior administration official said"........Six hours later, the chest-thumping president was back with another audacious gamble to loosen Iran’s grip on its most powerful point of leverage, the Strait of Hormuz. “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell,” he blasted on social media Easter morning from the White House residence, adding an Islamic prayer to the post........
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Trump on why he said “Praise be to Allah” on Easter morning:

He said he wanted to seem as unstable and insulting as possible, believing it could bring the Iranians to the table, senior administration officials said

Rubio told others privately it was language that might actually bring the Iranians to negotiate. (On whole civilization would die and Praise be to Allah, etc I assume)
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Trump: My Representatives are going to Islamabad, Pakistan — They will be there tomorrow evening, for Negotiations
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Trump: We’re offering a very fair and reasonable DEAL, and I hope they take it because, if they don’t, the United States is going to knock out every single Power Plant, and every single Bridge, in Iran. NO MORE MR. NICE GUY! They’ll come down fast, they’ll come down easy and, if they don’t take the DEAL, it will be my Honor to do what has to be done, which should have been done to Iran, by other Presidents, for the last 47 years. IT’S TIME FOR THE IRAN KILLING MACHINE TO END!
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U.S. VICE PRESIDENT VANCE TO LEAD AMERICAN DELEGATION FOR TALKS WITH IRAN IN PAKISTAN - ABC NEWS, CITING U.S. AMBASSADOR TO U.N.
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Iran State Media citing reporter info (not official): Iran currently has no decision to send a negotiating delegation; as long as there is a naval blockade, no negotiations will take place

(But imo they will negotiate, and will go to Pakistan, don't read much into this Iranian statement, made similar statement last time also but eventually end up in islamabad for talks yk)
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1hr ago: An Iranian delegation will arrive in Pakistan on Tuesday for talks with the US, Iranian sources familiar with the negotiations say: cnn

The sources expect the team will be the same as in the last round, which included Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and parliament speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf.

The Iranians are expecting that there will be a symbolic joint announcement of an extension to the ceasefire on Wednesday.
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Trump: The concept of the deal is done. I think we have a very good chance to get it completed
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Trump: Today, an Iranian-flagged cargo ship named TOUSKA, nearly 900 feet long and weighing almost as much as an aircraft carrier, tried to get past our Naval Blockade, and it did not go well for them. The U.S. Navy Guided Missile Destroyer USS SPRUANCE intercepted the TOUSKA in the Gulf of Oman, and gave them fair warning to stop. The Iranian crew refused to listen, so our Navy ship stopped them right in their tracks by blowing a hole in the engineroom. Right now, U.S. Marines have custody of the vessel. The TOUSKA is under U.S. Treasury Sanctions because of their prior history of illegal activity. We have full custody of the ship, and are seeing what’s on board!
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Iran State Media: New details of the Strait of Hormuz management plan, According to Chairman of the Parliament's Civil Commission:

1. The passage of any vessel or cargo belonging to or related to the israel through the Strait of Hormuz is absolutely prohibited

2. The passage of vessels from hostile countries is prohibited as determined by the authority.

3. The passage of vessels or cargo from countries that take hostile actions against the Resistance Front is prohibited.

4. Other vessels are allowed to pass if they obtain a permit and pay the "guidance, supervision, and security" fees.

5. Payments must be made in Iran's national currency (rial).

6. Any country that participated to any extent in the imposed war, after paying compensation for damages, will be allowed to pass.

7. Any country or individual or legal entity that imposes unilateral sanctions against Iran or takes any hostile action will be banned from passing through the Strait of Hormuz.

8. The passage of fleets from countries that use forged names other than the name Persian Gulf in their documents and statements is prohibited through the Strait of Hormuz.

9. The financial resources obtained from the fees will be used in three areas: strengthening the country's defense capabilities and the livelihood of the armed forces; reconstruction and development of the country's infrastructure; and providing for the people's livelihood.

10. Non-compliance with these laws will result in the seizure of the violating vessel and a fine and confiscation of 20% of the value of its cargo.

(Again take with 🧂, maybe just a political statement, they expanding restrictions wildly, don't take it too seriously for now, context: https://t.me/MonitoringSituation/4409)

(Tldr: parliament member lol, might happen, might not, maybe who knows, we will see, also not new info, SoH is red line so I don't see it more than a political statement for domestic posturing for now)

(Sharing just in case it hits like red hot potato soon near your headline doors)
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TWO U.S. OFFICIALS DIE IN A CAR ACCIDENT IN MEXICO WHILE SUPPORTING LOCAL EFFORTS TO COMBAT CARTEL OPERATIONS, EMBASSY SAYS
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The U.S. had pushed for a permanent end to Iran’s enrichment program but last week was open to accepting a 20-year Iranian suspension of the program. For Trump, going any lower would make a deal appear similar to the 2015 nuclear deal that he has long lambasted. That accord prevented Iran from producing enriched uranium above 3.67% for 15 years.

Officials close to the talks say that some flexibility has appeared over the issue in recent days, with Tehran exploring if Washington would be open to it carrying out some enrichment-related work after 10 years. One proposal under consideration among the mediators would see Iran suspend enrichment for a decade and then permit Tehran to produce a modest amount of low-enriched uranium for at least another 10 years.
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A senior adviser to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps in Tehran said the paramilitary force isn’t opposed in principle to a resumption of talks but it wants Iran to go into those talks with greater leverage

An Arab official in the region said the Iranian foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, is seeking to secure a grand pact with the U.S. that would ultimately normalize relationships between the two countries
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Iranian parliamentary speaker Ghalibaf: Vibe-trading digital oil is like vibe-hedging in treasuries during Hormuz risk-off. Both share one house of cards that works on paper.
Difference: oil at least has Dated Brent. Treasuries? Vibes all the way down.
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Iran-US Negotiations Will Happen This Week?
Anonymous Poll
57%
Yes
43%
No
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Two giant U.S. C-17 cargo planes landed at an air base on Sunday afternoon, carrying security equipment and vehicles in preparation for the U.S. delegation's arrival, two Pakistani ⁠security sources said. A U.S. team of security staff and officials arrived overnight in Islamabad, officials said. Nearly 20k security personnel have been deployed, with hotels and hostels around the talks venue and routes cleared, and public transport suspended in Islamabad: reuters
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