Monitoring The Situation
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Monitoring High Risk Conflicts, learning with community, Major Updates, with personal frustration & views

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They opening SoH)
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USOIL DROPPED BELOW 85
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OIL DOWN 12% TODAY
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TRUMP: IRAN HAS JUST ANNOUNCED THAT THE STRAIT OF IRAN IS FULLY OPEN AND READY FOR FULL PASSAGE

STRAIT OF IRAN? WHAT
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IDF: Home Front Command update: entire country (except confrontation line zone) will move to the full activity level from April 17, 2026, at 16:00, and will remain in effect until Thursday, April 23, 2026, at 20:00

(They lifting restrictions for period of ceasefire)
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U.S. MILITARY BLOCKADE OF IRAN REMAINS IN EFFECT, U.S. OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS
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The Iranian foreign minister’s announcement on Friday that the Strait of Hormuz is “completely open” for ships that use an Iranian-prescribed route doesn’t give the shipping industry assurances to resume traffic through the strait, an industry analyst said.

“From the shipping perspective, it is certainly promising, but it doesn't immediately give anybody enough clarity to make any firm decisions,” said Richard Meade, editor-in-chief of Lloyd’s List

The statement from the foreign minister, Abbas Araghchi, didn’t clarify whether Iran still plans to collect a toll for passing ships, as it has demanded in recent weeks. Iran previously tolled shipowners to use its prescribed route through the strait, which hugs the Iranian coastline on the northern shore of the waterway.
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Trump: The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!
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Monitoring The Situation
(no money will exchange hands?) What about $6b or even $20B ?
SENIOR IRANIAN OFFICIAL TELLS REUTERS, WITHOUT GIVING TIMELINE, UNFREEZING OF IRANIAN ASSETS HAS BEEN PART OF AGREEMENT TO OPEN STRAIT OF HORMUZ

Hands will exchange money mr president)
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TRUMP: IRAN, WITH HELP OF U.S.A., HAS REMOVED, OR IS REMOVING, ALL SEA MINES
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Iran State Media: According to Iranian source, Iran set three conditions for the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz.

1. Ships must be commercial, military ships are prohibited, and neither the ships nor their cargo should be related to hostile countries. (They allowed US ships as well fyi)

2. Ships must pass through the route designated by Iran (nothing on toll for now, unclear)

3. The passage of vessels must be coordinated with the Iranian forces responsible for this passage; just as CENTCOM had confirmed the management of the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps over the Strait of Hormuz before the war began.
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Monitoring The Situation
Iran State Media: According to Iranian source, Iran set three conditions for the passage of vessels through the Strait of Hormuz. 1. Ships must be commercial, military ships are prohibited, and neither the ships nor their cargo should be related to hostile…
More: if the naval blockade continues, it will be considered a violation of the ceasefire and the passage route of the Strait of Hormuz will be closed.

(It can be just domestic posturing from Iran and also remember trump said it will be over soon as they are getting close to a deal so watch ceasefire deadline)
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On the "Ships must pass through the route designated by Iran"

Over 800 oil tankers are currently stranded in the Gulf area.
- The strait is a 3-lane highway merging into 1.
- 400 loaded tankers want OUT.
- Only ~100 empty tankers are willing to come IN.

Even if everything goes perfectly —
Tanker out to Asia: 25 days.
Return trip empty: 25 days.
Then reload and sail again: AlaliQasem
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Iranian officials: Ships can transit the Strait of Hormuz after paying a toll - Fox News.
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TRUMP: I EXPECT AN IRAN DEAL IN A DAY OR TWO - AXIOS

TRUMP: THE IRAN MEETING IS LIKELY HAPPENING OVER THE WEEKEND - AXIOS
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Reality check: Multiple U.S. officials and other sources briefed on the negotiations have told Axios that while significant progress has been made, and the U.S. and Iran are now closing in on a three-page peace plan, gaps still remain on critical issues.

Trump, who has held at least one direct call with an Iranian official in recent days, is clearly feeling optimistic- Axios
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Iran FM Spox: The naval blockade by the United States is considered a violation of the ceasefire, and Iran will take the necessary reciprocal action
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Monitoring The Situation
Iran FM Spox: The naval blockade by the United States is considered a violation of the ceasefire, and Iran will take the necessary reciprocal action
So from two Iranian State Media, one said ^ (maybe translation issue)

Another one said: If the naval blockade continues, the Islamic Republic will also take reciprocal and necessary actions

And both said: The enemy (US, or trump) has repeatedly made contradictory statements within a single day, aimed at media hype.

While quoting Iran FM Spox

(Imo this is still "if" case and they are talking to US till ceasefire)
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IRANIAN FOREIGN MINISTRY (SPOX?): THE CEASEFIRE AGREEMENT IS FOR TWO WEEKS, AND THERE IS NO TALK OF EXTENDING IT - AL JAZEERA
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traders trying to trade every headline:
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