—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: About two hours ago, an LPG tanker attempted to cross the Strait of Hormuz, but was turned away by the IRGC Navy

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 President Trump: ‘Iran has been conquered. They have zero military.’ – NBC

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There are no strikes in Tehran or anywhere else in Iran currently.

Such ‘reports’ have been emerging since yesterday, all unsubstantiated.

There is some light AD activity (likely testing / precaution) in certain areas, and that’s all.

Going to get some sleep, will be back in 6-7 hours.

— 🇮🇱/🇰🇷 NEW: South Korea’s President, Jaemyung Lee, condemns ‘Jewish massacres’ against Palestine

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 NEW: The Iranian delegation still hasn’t arrived in Islamabad; the first round of negotiations was supposed to take place today

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 UPDATE: Talks have been postponed to tomorrow morning

Secret service teams and other U.S. staff are already in Islamabad, but neither J.D. Vance nor the Iranians have landed as of now.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇵🇰 CONFIRMED: The U.S. delegation carrying J.D. Vance has just departed from Washington D.C. towards Islamabad, Pakistan, and will arrive overnight – Al Arabiya

Talks scheduled in the morning.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇰🇼 NEW: The Iranian attack which killed 6 Americans at Camp Arifjan in Kuwait was carried out with Su-24 bombers, not drones, and a FAB-500 Soviet-era unguided bomb can be seen near the rubble

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇶🇦 NOTE: This is consistent with reports from during the war, when Qatar claimed to have shot down two Su-24 bombers minutes before reaching Doha

These Iranian Su-24 pilots, in the early hours of the war, likely gave their lives in what they ultimately knew would be a suicide mission, miraculously managing to hit and destroy a U.S. target in Kuwait with 60-year old equipment before eventually being downed in Qatar.

@Middle_East_Spectator

Hezbollah has carried out 30 operations so far today.

Will likely hit 65+ by day’s end.

— 🇮🇱/🇱🇧/🇮🇷 What I’m hearing (could be false, could be true):

A ‘compromise’ has been reached where Israel has committed not to strike Beirut while negotiations are ongoing, and ‘scaling back’ attacks in other areas of Lebanon. And when the final ceasefire is in place, a permanent one, then Israel will cease all attacks.

—> If true, this fails to address three key problems:

1. Any aggression, even outside of Beirut, is a violation of the ceasefire as explicitly agreed upon — and implicitly condoning such strikes would be a return to the post-2024 era, which is exactly what Hezbollah wanted to prevent by engaging in this battle.

2. We risk returning to a situation where certain officials make statements, yet there is no actionable follow-through to them; this carries the risk of collapsing the very deterrence that Iran has painstakenly rebuilt through the past 40 days of war.

3. The massacre that Israel carried out two days ago, killing more than 300+ Lebanese, cannot go unpunished by Iran. It cannot simply be said: ‘Any violations from now on will be responded to’, no; previous violations must still face a response, especially one as severe as this.

Iranian officials may believe that returning to fighting is currently not necessary due to the unprecedented leverage they have by closing the Strait of Hormuz. But America (and especially Israel) cannot be restrained merely by economic means alone.

@Middle_East_Spectator

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷 NEW: ‘The Strait of Hormuz is effectively under full IRGC control. They decide who gets to go through, but more importantly, who doesn’t’ – Fox News

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