—❗️🇮🇱/🇾🇪 NEW: Another launch from Yemen to Israel

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— Wait but what about the unconditional surrender that was supposed to happen?

—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 NEW: Launches from Iran to the Negev

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✅ Ballistic missile program intact

✅ Enriched uranium still safe

✅ Islamic Republic stays in power

✅ Replaced Ayatollah Khamenei with Ayatollah Khamenei 2.0

✅ Iran proven it can exercise control over the Strait of Hormuz

Incredible stuff from the world’s greatest ‘superpower’.

—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Red Alerts in Tel Aviv and the Negev

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—❗️🇮🇱/🇮🇷 BREAKING: Initial reports of direct impacts in Tel Aviv and Be’er Shebaa

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇨🇳/🇮🇷 BREAKING: The breakthrough in negotiations came as China promised to act as a guarantor that the U.S. would ‘accept at least some of Iran’s conditions’ mentioned in the 10-point framework during upcoming negotiations in Islamabad

As a gesture of goodwill, China vetoed a UN Security Council Resolution on the Strait of Hormuz earlier today, despite the crisis directly affecting China itself. – Sources

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇮🇱 NEW: Sources tell MES that one of the reasons Iran accepted the 2-week ceasefire is to complete the solemn burial ceremony of Ayatollah Khamenei across the Islamic Republic

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—❗️🇮🇷/🇸🇦 BREAKING: Iranian ballistic missiles once again struck Al-Jubail Industrial City, Saudi Arabia

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—❗️🇮🇷/🇦🇪 NEW: Ballistic missiles also struck the Habshan Gasfield, UAE

Emirati authorities have confirmed that ‘a fire has broken out’.

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇴🇲 BREAKING: Iran and Oman will charge tolls from all ships passing the Strait of Hormuz during the 2-week ceasefire – AP

This cements Iran’s de-facto control over the Strait, and enshrines a new legal framework for passage.

@Middle_East_Spectator

— So now we know what concessions the U.S. offered Iran:

Iran owns the Strait of Hormuz from now on, like Egypt with the Suez Canal.

—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇴🇲 NEW: If Iran charges $2 Million in tolls for every ship that passes the Strait of Hormuz — which it has been doing for the past month — it would generate approximately $8 Billion in monthly revenue, or about $96 Billion annually

This would increase Iran’s Gross Domestic Product (GDP) from $475 Billion to $571 Billion, a 20% increase.

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Wikipedia is fast

— Just imagine for a second if Iran, during this war, had captured, for example, an certain amount of land or piece of territory.

Everyone would call it a resounding strategic victory, and rightfully so.

Instead, it now controls the single most important waterway in the world, through which 20% of the world’s oil flows — of immense strategic value.

That is infinitely more desirable than conquering a piece of land, inflicting mass casualties, or destroying an enemy army. It’s a lasting impact that changes the strategic equation in the region for decades and centuries to come. This is a nation-altering event.

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—❗️🇺🇸/🇮🇷/🇮🇱 MES Analysis: Does a 2-week ceasefire with Iran give the U.S. and Israel the ability to rebuild and reorganize?

1. First, it must be understood that interceptor stockpiles in both Israel and the Gulf states are critically low. Even if the U.S. wanted to replenish these stockpiles, they exist in such limited capacities that they would have to relocate some of their stockpiles located in other theatres (Asia / Europe / North America). Israel would get priority for this; the Gulf will likely be forced to fend for itself. Even if this is done, the existing U.S. stockpiles, especially THAAD interceptors, are so limited that production must be massively scaled up, which is both practically impossible and extremely costly in the short to medium term.

2. If, as stated, the U.S. wanted to replenish the Israeli interceptor stockpiles, they could already do so during the war, logistics is not the issue; the ceasefire makes no difference. Military airbases in Israel are currently already operational and U.S. cargo aircrafts are going back and forth uninterrupted, even during the intense barrages fired from Iran. So the argument that a ceasefire would help Israel rearm is false. They could rearm now if they wanted to, but they don’t have the material.

3. In fact, during a temporary ceasefire, if the situation is handled properly, Iran would have a military advantage when it comes to rebuilding. A two weeks pause in the fighting would allow Iran to clear the entrances to its ballistic missile bases, putting several of them including those in the Western parts of the country back into operation, while simultaneously allowing the covert relocation and dispersal of drones and missiles to more remote and difficult to monitor parts of the country for use in further escalation. For example, drones from warehouses could be further dispersed to decentralized ‘launch alleys’ between mountains and valleys which are almost impossible to detect, allowing for sustained operations over a period of months. In short, this means that Iran could decide to resume the war after two weeks and launch much larger and coordinated waves of missiles and drones at the enemy.

4. During the pause in fighting, when negotiations take place, Iran’s position in these talks will be greatly strengthened compared to previous rounds. The threat of a military intervention is a card that has already been played, and the U.S. holds much less leverage over the situation than it did prior to the war, as military intervention has been tried and failed to achieve its objectives. Iran, on the other hand, has demonstrated that it can cripple the world’s oil supply by blocking the Strait of Hormuz, and this is a much more powerful card to play.

5. A two week pause in the fighting would allow Iranian commanders and decision-makers to reorganize and recalibrate their plans. Also, if security conditions allow, and utmost safety measures are exercised, it would allow for the first televised appearance of the new Supreme Leader, which would project confidence domestically while legitimizing the continuity of the Islamic Republic’s leadership.

6. Within these two weeks, internal pressure against President Trump to hold off on further escalation against Iran would continue to mount, and the pressure for a diplomatic settlement would increase significantly compared to any point in the past.

7. While taking all of the above points into consideration, the ceasefire can only work in Iran’s advantage if the leadership goes into the talks with complete awareness of the enemy’s deceitful plans and the likelihood of betrayal, they must have complete distrust in the Americans, which is appropriate considering that both previous times Iran negotiated it was attacked. No gatherings of senior commanders should take place, leaders should avoid moving and becoming targets in assassinations, and overall they must not act naive.

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> Middle East Spectator returns
> Iranian strategic victory happens