The UAE has announced it is quitting OPEC and OPEC+, marking a major blow to the oil producers’ group at a time when the Iran war is already disrupting Gulf energy flows.
On the Iranian front, oil pressure keeps building
Iran is reportedly running out of storage as the U.S. blockade around the Strait of Hormuz traps tankers and limits crude exports.
The key risk now is operational: if Iran is forced to shut down production, experts warn it could cause lasting damage to oil fields and reduce future output capacity.
Iran is reportedly running out of storage as the U.S. blockade around the Strait of Hormuz traps tankers and limits crude exports.
The key risk now is operational: if Iran is forced to shut down production, experts warn it could cause lasting damage to oil fields and reduce future output capacity.
The April Fed meeting is expected to end with rates unchanged, as the Fed stays in “wait and see” mode amid higher energy prices, Iran-related geopolitical risk, and renewed inflation pressure.
This is also Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair, with markets watching his press conference closely for any signal on inflation, future rate cuts, and whether he will remain on the Fed Board.
A small global note: the Bank of Japan also held rates unchanged at 0.75%, but its split vote showed a more hawkish tone, suggesting a possible hike later if energy-driven inflation pressure persists.
This is also Jerome Powell’s final meeting as Fed Chair, with markets watching his press conference closely for any signal on inflation, future rate cuts, and whether he will remain on the Fed Board.
A small global note: the Bank of Japan also held rates unchanged at 0.75%, but its split vote showed a more hawkish tone, suggesting a possible hike later if energy-driven inflation pressure persists.
US Fed chair nominee warsh approved by senate banking committee, advances to full senate vote
USD/JPY briefly broke above 160.70 but a strong “final warning” from Japanese FX officials triggered a sharp yen rebound.
Key levels to watch:
Support: 159.05, 158.60, 157.50
Resistance: 160.45, 160.74, 161.16
Bottom line: intervention risk is now real again, and any hawkish ECB/BoE tone could add more downside pressure on USD/JPY.
Key levels to watch:
Support: 159.05, 158.60, 157.50
Resistance: 160.45, 160.74, 161.16
Bottom line: intervention risk is now real again, and any hawkish ECB/BoE tone could add more downside pressure on USD/JPY.
Updates after the FOMC: the Fed kept rates unchanged, but the market reaction shows that uncertainty is still high.
* Rates stayed at 3.50%–3.75%.
* Powell remained cautious, with no clear dovish pivot.
* Oil and Middle East tensions remain the main inflation risk.
* USD strengthened, yields moved higher, and small caps weakened.
* Gold, silver, and crypto pulled back under dollar pressure.
* Next focus: GDP, PCE, wage data, NFP, and Big Tech earnings.
Bottom line: no surprise on rates, but markets are still trading a fragile higher-for-longer scenario.
* Rates stayed at 3.50%–3.75%.
* Powell remained cautious, with no clear dovish pivot.
* Oil and Middle East tensions remain the main inflation risk.
* USD strengthened, yields moved higher, and small caps weakened.
* Gold, silver, and crypto pulled back under dollar pressure.
* Next focus: GDP, PCE, wage data, NFP, and Big Tech earnings.
Bottom line: no surprise on rates, but markets are still trading a fragile higher-for-longer scenario.
Markets enter the week with strong momentum after a record-setting April, but the focus now shifts to macro confirmation.
The key release is Friday’s April jobs report, which will help clarify whether March’s stronger hiring was temporary or the start of a more durable labor rebound. The Fed will be watching closely, as rate-cut expectations remain limited amid sticky inflation, tariff uncertainty, higher energy prices, and geopolitical risk.
Consumer sentiment data is also due Friday, giving investors another read on whether households are starting to feel pressure after weaker-than-expected GDP growth.
Bottom line: the rally needs support from labor resilience and stable consumer demand, not just earnings momentum.
The key release is Friday’s April jobs report, which will help clarify whether March’s stronger hiring was temporary or the start of a more durable labor rebound. The Fed will be watching closely, as rate-cut expectations remain limited amid sticky inflation, tariff uncertainty, higher energy prices, and geopolitical risk.
Consumer sentiment data is also due Friday, giving investors another read on whether households are starting to feel pressure after weaker-than-expected GDP growth.
Bottom line: the rally needs support from labor resilience and stable consumer demand, not just earnings momentum.
EUR/USD is trading around an interesting technical area, with price sitting near a recent consolidation/resistance zone after the latest rebound. With upcoming macro developments and broader EUR/USD sensitivity still in focus, this level could be a key area to monitor for either continuation confirmation or rejection.
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US President Donald Trump has paused “Project Freedom” in the Strait of Hormuz after signs of progress in US-Iran negotiations. The market is reading this as a de-escalation signal, with hopes that shipping flows through Hormuz could normalize and a broader agreement may follow.
For now, this supports a risk-on scenario: oil prices are falling from extreme levels, geopolitical risk premiums are easing, and risk assets are moving higher as investors price in a lower probability of further military escalation.
For now, this supports a risk-on scenario: oil prices are falling from extreme levels, geopolitical risk premiums are easing, and risk assets are moving higher as investors price in a lower probability of further military escalation.
NFP Preview
Consensus expects a softer US jobs report today:
• NFP: 62k–65k
• Unemployment: 4.3%
• Wages: 0.3% m/m
Forecasts are clustered around 50k–80k, so the market is already positioned for weakness.
Our view: labor is slowing, not breaking. With ADP at 109k and claims still low, the risk is an upside surprise toward 90k–130k.
Market read:
Above 100k = USD supportive
Below 50k = USD negative
Consensus expects a softer US jobs report today:
• NFP: 62k–65k
• Unemployment: 4.3%
• Wages: 0.3% m/m
Forecasts are clustered around 50k–80k, so the market is already positioned for weakness.
Our view: labor is slowing, not breaking. With ADP at 109k and claims still low, the risk is an upside surprise toward 90k–130k.
Market read:
Above 100k = USD supportive
Below 50k = USD negative
Here's a quick snapshot of the DXY before the NFP. Past days, DXY was trading lower, and is currently forming a crucial structure. Price sustaining above the green demand, a W recovery can be expected. Meanwhile, breaking below the green demand, and NFP numbers coming in < 50k we can see a strong dump.