BIG DAY TODAY: @INFINITYHEDGE

*Fed Chair Powell speech at the Jackson Hole (10 AM)

*Trump Announcement at 12 PM

Previews on Powell's Speech:
*WSJ (Nick Timiraos): Fed officials are preparing to quietly retreat from a signature policy innovation unveiled five years ago. In 2020, officials revamped their approach to setting rates, focusing on the risks brought on by near-zero interest rates and low prices. Today, officials are preparing to scrap that approach, now viewed as no longer relevant when facing the opposite problem of high and more volatile inflation. The 2020 changes involved two main shifts. First, the Fed said it would allow inflation to run modestly above its 2% target for periods to make up for times when it had fallen short. Second, officials said they would focus only on the unemployment rate being too high, rather than also worrying about the rate being too low, removing some urgency to pre-emptively raise rates and prevent the economy from running too hot. Officials have signaled they are likely to back off from the more ambitious employment goal that returns the Fed to some version of the framework that existed before the more novel changes.

*UBS: Powell may deliver a retrospective “exit” speech, potentially disappointing those looking for dovish signals.

*JPM: there are no expectations for Powell to divulge any material info...we look for stagflation evidence to flip our view to bearish.....Fed’s decision on a Sept cut(s) is dependent on the Sep 5 NFP and Sep 11 CPI prints, Jackson Hole is shaping up to be inconsequential.

*GS: expect Powell to modify his statement from the July FOMC press conference that the FOMC is “well positioned” to wait for more information. Instead, he might note that the FOMC is well positioned to address risks to both sides of its mandate but emphasize that downside risks to the labor market have grown following the July employment report, while reiterating that tariffs are likely to have only a one-time effect on the price level. We do not expect him to decisively signal a Sept. cut, but the speech should make it clear to markets that he is likely to support one.

*GS: On the framework review, we expect the FOMC to partially reverse some of the changes it made in 2020, as it has foreshadowed in the minutes to its recent meetings. Specifically, we expect the FOMC to return to saying that it will respond to “deviations” from maximum employment in both directions rather than just to “shortfalls” or to at least water down the shortfalls language and to return to flexible inflation targeting (rather than flexible average inflation targeting) as its main strategy while retaining the option to use a make-up strategy at the zero lower bound.

*Barclays: believes markets are overly confident in expecting a Sept. cut, and while they see the decision as a close call, the banks baseline remains that the next cut will happen only in Dec.

*FT's Jackson Hole speech: https://www.ft.com/content/3090312e-4f45-4dfb-a006-318575f2a599

ICYMI: </INFINITYHEDGE/>
*Nvidia orders suspension to H20 chip production; Shares of China’s leading AI chipmakers, surged to a record after DeepSeek unveiled an updated model that would be compatible with Chinese-made chips.
*China considering yuan-backed stablecoins to boost global currency usage; latest plans come after a Shanghai regulator last month said it had held a meeting for local gov officials to consider strategic responses to stablecoins and digital currencies.
*Trump suggested that he’s open to Ukraine launching more attacks on Russia.

ETH HITS $4,800

According to Bloomberg, Galaxy Digital, Multicoin Capital, and Jump Crypto are in talks with potential backers to raise about $1 billion to acquire Solana (SOL), which would mark the largest treasury dedicated to the token. Cantor Fitzgerald is acting as the lead banker for the deal. — link

TOM LEE'S BITMINE BOUGHT $2.2B OF ETHEREUM OVER THE PAST WEEK: PRESS RELEASE

🔗 velo.xyz

So far on the Fed chopping block:

1. Trump fires Fed Governor Cook
2. Fed Governor Kugler resigns "without explanation"
3. Trump appoints Fed Governor Miran
4. Trump calls to "fire Fed Chair Powell" 10+ times
5. Trump says new Fed Chair pick is "coming soon"

2026 is going to be a wild year.
(@TheKobeissiLetter)

Former Polymarket And Kalshi Team Raise $15M From Union Square And Coinbase To Build An Onchain, Permissionless, And Regulated Prediction Market: Blockworks

🔗 velo.xyz