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STOCK MARKET| #NCFM _CERTIFIED_TECHNICAL ANALYST


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If again goes below 23390 then 23330 can be seen
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Market Decoder
If again goes below 23390 then 23330 can be seen
23430 to 23330 , 100 points done
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Kalyan Jewellers , 315 to 320 if it comes n reverses then its a good chance
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Market Decoder
If moves up , 24550 ,23600 are resistance,
24550 done
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0.5% decent gap up , let’s wait for dusts to settle down n look for entry
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Nifty currently at resistance, only if closses above 24580 new high's 24630 and 24690 can be seen , else fall
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Supports 24474 ,24435
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If Nifty goes below 24400 then 24365 and 23330 can be seen
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Market Decoder
image_2024-12-19_10-07-06.png
SAIL 118 to 206 now , 73% done 🀩🀩
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Market Decoder
Supports 24474 ,24435
Both done
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Nifty
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Nifty Target Done
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No deviation nothingπŸ’―
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23458 to 23700 done so far
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It’s a hot cake
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MONEY TIMES TALK

16.5.26

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Although Money Times recommendation have outperformed other media, stock brokers and research houses, the brief recommendations under Money Times Talk (MTT) cannot display 'BUY', 'SELL' or 'HOLD' recommendations. Readers should, therefore, exercise their own judgement and evaluate the future prospects of the stock given its past performance, Industry prospects in the backdrop of a growing economy and in consultation with their investment adviser.

As per astrology view, some important turning dates are 18, 22, 25, 27 & 29th May 2026.

Friday night closing: Dow -537 pts, Nasdaq -410 pts., S&P -93 pts. However, Gift Nifty closed in green at 23769 as Brent Crude declined sharply to $100.49. If crude falls further over the weekend and no negative developments emerge, Indian markets may remain strong on Monday.

As per market grapevine, stocks to watch include Anantraj, Artefact Projects, Black Rose Ind., Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances, Hester Biosciences, HFCI, IOLCP, Lehar Footwears, NSE SME KLL, Plastiblends India, Shiva Texyarn, SAIL, Somi Conveyor Beltings, VA Tech Wabag, Vodafone Idea and Yes Bank. Israel-Lebanon extending the ceasefire by 45 days is positive for bulls.

Data: USDINR at 96.13, lifetime low for Rupee. Negative for importers and Flls. Weak weekly closing in Nifty and Bank Nifty remains negative for bulls. As per market grapevine, inflation may rise sharply and demand may weaken in coming months.

Kind attention to FM & Government: Simplifying account opening, compliance and investment processes for NRIs can become a major source of long-term capital inflows into India. Government should also consider reducing STT and long-term capital gains tax to attract Flls, FPIs and NRIs.

Very Important: As per market grapevine, both old and new BSE websites remain very slow, with delays in opening quarterly results and other data. Technical and administrative departments should immediately improve bandwidth. and website speed. Investors facing issues may contact BSE Web Manager on 022-22728358/8594/8973/8249.

As per market veteran, trading is the only profession where overworking can make you poorer. Successful trading is not about predicting the future, but about discipline, risk management & sticking to strategy despite emotional pressure.

Wars ignite volatility. Volatility creates fear. Fear creates mispricing & mispricing creates opportunity. Markets reward courage only when backed by wisdom. Investors should avoid getting carried away in rallies or panicking during corrections because markets, money & life never move in a straight line. Greed during rallies & fear during declines often become the biggest reasons for losses. Every rise is followed by consolidation & every fall is followed by recovery. The real game in investing is about controlling emotions, not chasing prices. Wise investors ignore rumours, daily noise & temporary volatility and remain committed to their strategy. Stay humble in rallies & patient during declines because a calm mind is the biggest strength in investing.

Trading Rules: a) Be patient & wait for the right opportunity. b) Trade on your own ideas & strategy, not on tips. c) Never risk too much on one company or event. d) Think clearly about entry, profit booking & stop loss before taking
a trade. e) Markets move before fundamentals, so respect price action. f) Stay flexible & accept mistakes quickly. g) Buy on extreme weakness & sell on extreme strength. h) Avoid distractions & remain focused. i) Opportunities in markets never stop, so stay confident.

Take care; Most people buy insurance based on what agents sell instead of calculating what their family would actually need if income suddenly stops. If yearly family contribution is Rs.10 lakh & 20 earning years are left, income value itself crosses Rs.2 cr. Then a Rs.20-30 lakh policy may not be enough to protect lifestyle, education, EMIs & future goals. Insurance is not about policy count, but about proper income replacement.
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Before aggressive investing, first protect the income source creating wealth.

Grateful people build wealth while others only earn money. Gratitude turns income into wealth because it creates discipline, patience & long-term thinking. Wealth grows where gratitude flows. Markets are full of panic buying, panic selling & fear of missing out, but real wealth is created through patience & discipline. Markets do not punish ignorance as much as they punish indiscipline. Always remain grateful to Universe/God for everything around you.

Small & microcaps can create multibaggers in bull markets, but they can also fall the hardest in bear phases. Many 3x-10x stocks fail to sustain gains across full market cycles as drawdowns of 40-60% are common. Smallcaps are not "buy & forget" investments, but "buy, monitor & manage" opportunities. Smart investors focus on governance, valuations, cycle awareness & selective conviction bets. Wealth is created not only by generating returns, but also by protecting capital during deep corrections. Every bear market eventually creates future wealth creators for disciplined investors.

Alert: High EMIs can delay wealth creation. If a person earning Rs.1 lakh pays EMI of Rs.45,000, very little remains for investing after expenses. Investing Rs.25,000 monthly for 20 years at 10% return can create nearly Rs.1.9 cr., but delaying investments due to heavy EMIs can sharply reduce final wealth. Lifestyle upgrades should not come at the cost of long-term financial freedom.

As per market veteran, every litre of fuel saved, every unnecessary expense avoided & every disciplined financial decision strengthens both personal wealth & India's economy. Small savings by crores of Indians become national strength. Save more, spend wisely & build wealth responsibly.

Power of "I don't know": Investors who accept uncertainty often create more wealth than overconfident investors. Nobody truly knows future returns of stocks, gold, ETFs, real estate or interest rates. But investors should know their financial goals, required corpus, asset allocation & savings discipline. Understanding your limitations is often more powerful than overconfidence.

Most people underestimate retirement planning. A monthly expense of Rs.50,000 today can become nearly Rs.1 lakh in 10 years at 8% inflation. A commonly used thumb rule suggests building a corpus of nearly 300 times monthly expenses, implying around Rs.3 cr. for Rs.1 lakh monthly expenses. Retirement planning should remain separate from goals like education, marriage or house purchase. Start planning early for financial freedom.

Businesses with high fallure rates include: 1. Trading (98%). 2. Hotels (90%). 3. Gyms (81%). 4. Restaurants (80%). 5. Construction (70%). 6. E-commerce/ dropshipping (90%). 7. CafΓ©s / coffee shops (85%). 8. InfluenceraAgencies (85%). 9. Logistics/trucking (80%). 10. Retail stores (75%). 11. Crypto trading (95%). 12. Content agencies (70%).

As per market veteran, recency bias is one of the biggest enemies for traders & investors at market peaks. Earlier frenzy was seen in Smallcaps, SMEs, IPOs, Defence, Railways, Solar, Chemicals, Data centres & New-age tech stocks, but now market interest has shifted towards Metals, PSU Banks & Bullion stocks. Many overheated themes eventually correct sharply, trapping retail investors without exits. Excessive speculation in SME IPOs & overpriced IPOs has already destroyed significant retail wealth. Trading in precious metals has also become highly volatile, so investors should stay cautious & light.

Global crisis is no longer limited to oil & gas. Fertilizers, sulfur & industrial chemicals are also witnessing severe supply disruptions. Sharp rise in sulfuric acid, urea & industrial input prices is impacting fertilizer production, EV batteries, semiconductors & manufacturing globally. Multiple countries are facing fertilizer shortages, plant shutdowns & supply disruptions, raising risks of higher inflation, food shortages & industrial slowdown.
Markets are currently focused mainly on crude oil, while risks related to food, fertilizer & industrial supply chains remain largely underpriced.

Eco Reco is back on track going by its Q4FY26 numbers. The recycling industry prospects are bright with govt. support to it

HFCL bags export orders worth $19.32 million (Rs.183.95 cr.) for supply of optical fibre cables from renowned global customers. Just keep on radar.

IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals received EDQM CEP approval for Clopidogrel Besilate, strengthening access to regulated European markets. It has huge reserves of Rs.1693 cr. vs equity of Rs.59 cr. and reported PAT of Rs.84.48 cr. in 9MFY26 with 50% interim dividend. The company is expanding API presence with REACH registration, new Minoxidil unit, Paracetamol expansion & Rs.150-200 cr. capex plans. Medium-term growth visibility remains strong with export expansion & margin improvement. Stock may surpass its high of Rs.179.

Lehar Footwears is setting up a new footwear manufacturing unit at Kundli, Haryana focused on sports shoes & EVA footwear. Existing capacity of 1 lakh pairs/month operates at 85-90% utilisation while phased expansion of 5 lakh pairs/month is planned with capex of up to Rs.25 cr. funded through internal accruals. Expansion into athleisure segment supports long-term growth visibility. Board meeting for results & dividend on 22-5-2026.

PNC Infratech emerged as L1 bidder for construction of a 4-Lane major bridge over River Ganga on EPC mode with project value of Rs.571.81 cr. in JV with SPS Constructions India. Just keep on radar.

VA Tech Wabag announced development of its first Bio-CNG plant in Ghaziabad, Uttar Pradesh under its waste-to-energy initiative targeting establishment of 100 Bio-CNG plants across India & global markets. Just keep on radar.

HFCL to set up Rs.230 cr. defence manufacturing facility in Andhra Pradesh for Multi-Mode Hand Grenades & related products with planned capacity of~40 lakh units by December 2027. Expansion driven by defence import substitution & rising global defence spending. Keep on track.

Debt-free, dividend-paying Black Rose has reserves of Rs. 164.34 cr. v/s equity of Rs.5 cr. Q4FY26 PAT jumped 114% Q-o-Q to Rs.9.42 cr., while FY26 PAT stood at Rs.22.44 cr. Company announced 125% dividend. New capacity and amines venture with Japanese partners provide strong earnings visibility. Stock looks attractive at Rs.96 v/s life-time high of Rs.239.

Hester Biosciences reported 974% higher Q4FY26 PAT at Rs.165.46 cr. and raised dividend to 110% from 70% in FY25. Capacity expansion, export growth and H9N2 vaccine commercialisation provide strong long-term visibility. Stock looks attractive at Rs.1834 and may surpass its 52-week high of Rs.2347.

Promoters of IOL Chemicals & Pharmaceuticals bought 25.12 lakh shares from the market, reflecting confidence in future growth. EDQM granted CEP for "Metformin Hydrochloride Process-11, strengthening its API portfolio. FY26 results on 20-5-2026. Stock looks attractive at Rs.106 v/s all-time high of Rs.178.

Dividend-paying Lehar Footwears notched 109% higher PAT of Rs.16.69 cr. for 9MFY26. CRISIL rating upgrade, debt reduction and PE of just 15 v/s peers at 30-64 make valuations attractive. Stock trades at Rs.238 v/s 52-week high of Rs.322. FY26 results & dividend meeting on 22-5-2026.

NSE SME Kaushalya Logistics (KLL) operates 116 depots across 11 states and serves Dalmia Cement, ACC, Ambuja Cement and JK Cement. H1FY26 PAT stood at Rs.6.79 cr. with PE of just 5. Appointment of logistics veteran Rajendra Shekhawat as CFO may prove a game changer. Stock looks attractive at Rs.36 v/s life-time high of Rs.163.

Debt-free, dividend-paying Plastiblends India has reserves of Rs.436 cr. v/s equity of Rs.13 cr. Q4FY26 PAT rose 45% to Rs.13.86 cr. while FY26 PAT stood at Rs.36.69 cr. Dividend increased to 60%. Stock trades at PE of 11.8 and around book value, making it attractive at Rs. 163 v/s 52-week high of Rs.232.

Butterfly Gandhimathi Appliances, part of the Crompton group, reported 40% higher FY26 PAT of Rs.45.64 cr.