Tomorrow being Market holiday 3 days long holiday , premium won’t raise much after sometime, option buyers be safe

23833 done

Bought few Vendanta

🔢 *Vedanta Demerger Valuation (Latest Estimates)*
1. Total Value (Sum of Parts)
*Estimated combined value of all 5 entities:*
👉 ~ *₹800–₹820 per share*

✔️ This is the true economic value you hold after receiving all shares.

2. *Post-Demerger Price of Parent (Residual Vedanta)*

Expected adjusted price:
👉 *₹300 – ₹325 per share*

⚠️ Important: This is not a loss — it’s just the parent after removing other businesses.

3. Break-up of Value (Indicative)

After demerger, you will own:

Vedanta (Residual – Zinc, Copper, etc.)
Vedanta Aluminium
Vedanta Power
Vedanta Oil & Gas
Vedanta Iron & Steel

👉 For every 1 share, you get 1 share in each entity

Approx value distribution (analyst view):

Entity Expected Value Contribution
Aluminium ₹350–₹400+ (largest value driver)
Residual Vedanta (Zinc etc.) ₹250–₹325
Oil & Gas ₹100–₹150
Power ₹50–₹100
Iron & Steel ₹50–₹75

👉 Total ≈ ₹800+ valuation

(Ranges because final value depends on listing price & debt allocation)

4. Why Stock Falls to ₹300 But Value ≈ ₹800?

Before demerger:

1 share = ₹750–₹780 (combined business)

After demerger:

Parent: ₹300
4 new shares (yet to list)

👉 Total = still ~₹800 (once all list)

5. Key Insight (Very Important)
Short-term:
👉 Price looks like it crashes (₹750 → ₹300)
Reality:
👉 Value is split, not destroyed

*Long-term upside:*
Pure-play valuation

*Aluminium likely to get premium multiple*

*Value unlocking expected*

*6. Big Risk to Watch*
Debt allocation between entities
If more debt goes to weaker businesses → valuation can change

🥇 1. Vedanta Aluminium → HIGHEST OUTPERFORMER
Why this is #1:
Contributes ~40% of total revenue
Strong global metal cycle (prices rising sharply)
Massive scale + expansion plans
Pure-play aluminium companies get higher valuation multiples

👉 Also:

Aluminium prices ↑ ~21% YoY → strong earnings leverage
Standalone listing will unlock value

⚠️ Risk:

Highest debt allocation (capital intensive)

✅ Verdict:
👉 Best combination of size + growth + rerating → TOP PICK

🥈 2. Vedanta Oil & Gas → HIGH GROWTH DARK HORSE
Why:
Houses Cairn India → contributes ~25% of India’s oil output
High-margin business (cash cow)
Benefits from crude price cycles

👉 Biggest advantage:

Was hidden inside conglomerate earlier
Now will get premium valuation like upstream energy companies

⚠️ Risk:

Oil price volatility

✅ Verdict:
👉 Second best – high cash flow + rerating potential

🥉 3. Vedanta (Residual – Zinc, Copper, Base Metals)
Why:
Strong earnings visibility
Zinc + copper demand rising globally
Already a stable, cash-generating business

👉 Data:

Zinc + copper saw strong revenue growth (21%–53%)

⚠️ Limitation:

Already fairly valued (less rerating vs others)

✅ Verdict:
👉 Stable compounder, not explosive

⚖️ 4. Vedanta Iron & Steel → CYCLICAL BET
Why:
Linked to infra + capex cycle
Potential upside if steel cycle turns

⚠️ Risks:

Highly cyclical
Lower margins vs aluminium/oil
Global oversupply risk

✅ Verdict:
👉 Mid performer (depends on cycle timing)

🚫 5. Vedanta Power → WEAKEST
Why:
Regulated business (limited upside)
Lower valuation multiples
Coal dependency issues

⚠️ Reality:

Typically trades at lowest PE/EV multiples

✅ *Verdict:*
👉 Least likely to outperform

🧠 Final Ranking (Simple)
🥇 Aluminium (Best)
🥈 Oil & Gas
🥉 Base Metals (Vedanta Ltd)
⚖️ Iron & Steel
🚫 Power (Weakest)

🎯 *Smart Investor Strategy (Important)*
Aggressive investors:
👉 *Focus on Aluminium + Oil & Gas*
Balanced investors:
👉 Hold all + overweight Aluminium
Conservative:
👉 Stick with Zinc/Base Metals (Vedanta parent)
🔥 Bottom Line

This demerger is not equal across businesses:

*👉 Aluminium = Wealth creator*

👉 *Oil & Gas = Surprise upside*

👉 *Power = Avoid / low priority*

Exactly from support market bounced almost 170 points as now

Good Morning All

Starting a batch in May ,

After this batch price will be increased ,

Interested people can enroll this month

Stock given at 445 now at 541 in less than 2weeks

updated chart from yesterday's Nifty's video

Until Nifty breaks 24335 in upside and 23800 in downside market will be in sideways

OI data suggests Neutral move , boring market for scalpers

VEDL From 275 to 315

Nifty above 24200 mild bulllishness ll come, 24256 and 24280+ are targets

Nifty Supports 24130 and 24090 if it breaks then 24050 can be seen

Target done for nifty in smaller TF, now it is retesting , trend is bullish Yellow bars are support regions