Market Matrix — Global Markets, Finance & Macroeconomics
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Your hub for global finance, macroeconomic trends, and market intelligence.

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AI-driven borrowing is prompting investors to seek greater downside protection:

- Weekly trading volume in credit default swaps (CDS) linked to major tech companies climbed to roughly $8 billion in December 2025, marking the highest level on record.
- Since August, volumes have more than doubled.
- For comparison, CDS volumes held steady at about $3 billion during the first half of 2025.
- This surge follows tech companies collectively raising $88 billion in debt last fall to finance AI infrastructure projects, led by Meta ($META), Amazon ($AMZN), Alphabet ($GOOGL), and Oracle ($ORCL).
- Looking ahead, investment-grade firms are projected to issue an enormous $1.5 trillion in debt by 2030 to support AI infrastructure expansion.

Investors are quietly positioning to hedge against risks tied to AI-related debt.

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BREAKING: U.S. M2 money supply surged by $1.65 trillion in 2025, reaching a record $26.7 trillion.

This represents the largest annual increase since 2021 and marks the third consecutive yearly gain.

Since mid-2023, M2 has expanded by $3.7 trillion, fueled by sharply rising bank deposits and inflows into money market funds.

On average, money supply has grown by $116 billion per month during this period.

By contrast, between January 2022 and April 2023, M2 contracted by $450 billion, equivalent to a monthly decline of $28 billion.

U.S. money creation is accelerating at a striking pace.

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The U.S. job market is showing signs of strain:

- Nonfarm payrolls have fallen by 164,000 over the past four months when excluding healthcare and social assistance, marking the steepest decline since the 2020 pandemic.
- Although total payrolls increased by 41,000 during this period, underlying weakness is evident.
- Historically, such declines outside of recessions have been rare.
- At the start of 2025, this figure stood at +500,000, underscoring the sharp reversal.
- In 2025, healthcare and social assistance accounted for 713,000 of the 733,000 private-sector job gains.
- That leaves just 20,000 jobs generated by the rest of the more cyclical and productive sectors.

Healthcare has become the primary driver of U.S. employment growth.

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BREAKING: President Trump announced that he has established the “Board of Peace,” which will be revealed shortly.

He described it as “the most prestigious board ever assembled.”

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BREAKING: According to Iran’s ambassador to Pakistan, President Trump has assured Iran that he does not seek war and will not initiate an attack.

Oil prices fell sharply following the announcement.

Arab governments believe U.S.-Iran tensions have “de-escalated,” with expectations that talks between the two sides will continue.

Reports indicate Saudi Arabia, Turkey, Qatar, Oman, and Egypt all played roles in helping to ease tensions between the U.S. and Iran.

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Shocking statistic of the day:

The top 10% of U.S. earners now account for a record 49% of all consumer spending.

This share has climbed by 13 percentage points over the past 30 years, underscoring a major shift in spending power.

Meanwhile, the bottom 80% of earners contribute only about 37% of total consumer expenditures, a decline of 11 percentage points since 1995.

As a result, the top 10% represent a record 33% of U.S. GDP, given that personal consumer expenditures make up 68% of total economic output.

By contrast, the bottom 80% account for just 25% of the economy.

In this environment, asset owners remain the sole beneficiaries.

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BREAKING: The White House comments on the meeting between Denmark and the US:

"The two sides agreed to establish a working group for technical talks on the acquisition of Greenland."

"President Trump has made it clear, he wants to acquire Greenland," she adds.

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The White House comments on President Trump talking about "cancelling" midterm elections:

"The President was joking, he was speaking facetiously."

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BREAKING: China’s trade surplus surged +19.7% year-over-year in 2025, reaching a record $1.2 trillion.

Imports held steady at $2.6 trillion, while exports climbed +5.5% YoY to $3.8 trillion, marking an all-time high.

In December alone, exports increased +6.6% YoY, surpassing all economist forecasts.

By region, exports to Africa soared +25.8% YoY, followed by ASEAN at +13.4%, the EU at +8.4%, and Latin America at +7.4%.

Conversely, exports to the U.S. dropped -20% YoY.

As a result, the U.S. now accounts for just 11.1% of China’s total exports, down from 14.7% in 2024—one of the lowest shares since the 1990s.

China is actively redirecting trade flows away from the United States.

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BREAKING: Tomorrow, in a historic move, President Trump is expected to unveil an “emergency power auction” that would require major technology companies to finance new power plants.

The plan aims to build $15 billion worth of new facilities.

PJM, the nation’s largest grid operator, will spearhead the initiative alongside Trump.

As noted previously, this year’s focus will be on affordability in the run-up to the midterm elections.

The ongoing electricity crisis driven by AI demand is projected to worsen without decisive action.

In September, the average U.S. retail electricity price rose +7.4%, reaching a record 18.07 cents per kWh.

This week, Trump stated, “I never want Americans to pay higher electricity bills because of data centers.”

Electricity has now become the next major issue.

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BREAKING: President Trump has finalized a trade agreement with Taiwan, reducing tariffs on Taiwanese goods to 15%.

Under the deal, Taiwan’s chip and technology firms will commit to investing a minimum of $250 billion in the United States.

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BREAKING: Taiwan Semiconductor ($TSM) reported a +35% year-over-year increase in net profit for Q4 2025, fueled by strong AI chip demand.

Asia’s most valuable company has now delivered profit growth YoY for 8 consecutive quarters.

Revenue in Q4 2025 rose +21% YoY to $33.7 billion, with both revenue and profit surpassing analyst expectations.

For the full year 2025, revenue climbed +32% YoY, topping $100 billion for the first time in company history.

Looking ahead, TSMC projects record capital expenditures in 2026, at $52–56 billion, up +32% YoY, to expand global manufacturing capacity.

The AI chip boom continues to accelerate without signs of slowing.

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BREAKING: Several “InfoFi” crypto projects have collapsed after X announced it will no longer permit apps that reward users for posting on the platform.

“They were paying us millions for Enterprise API access. We don’t want it,” said Head of Product Nikita Bier.

This marks a major development.

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BREAKING: Verizon ($VZ) announced it will issue a $20 credit to customers affected by yesterday’s widespread outage.

The disruption left as many as 1.5 million users without service.

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Europe has fallen behind.

ASML ($ASML) has just become only the third company in European history to reach a $500 billion market capitalization.

By comparison, Nvidia ($NVDA) routinely fluctuates by $500 billion in market cap within a single day and is nine times larger than ASML.

In fact, ASML would not even rank among the top 15 companies in the United States.

Meanwhile, OpenAI—a private firm—is valued at roughly the same size as Europe’s two largest public companies combined.

Innovation across Europe appears to have stalled.

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BREAKING: Japan’s gold reserves climbed to a record $120 billion in 2025, up +60% year-over-year.

Gold now accounts for 9% of Japan’s total reserve assets, more than doubling since 2022.

At the same time, the nation’s foreign exchange reserves rose to $1.17 trillion, the highest level since 2021.

As a result, total reserve assets reached $1.37 trillion, also the highest since 2021.

Japan has additionally become the largest foreign holder of U.S. Treasuries, at $1.2 trillion—the highest since July 2022.

Gold is driving reserve asset growth worldwide.

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PRESIDENT TRUMP:

“If Minnesota’s politicians fail to stop the agitators and insurrectionists from attacking ICE, I will invoke the Insurrection Act.”

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Your silver coin, valued at $29 last year, has now reached a record price of $107 today.

This represents highly unusual market behavior.

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BREAKING: Gold futures have officially surpassed $5,100/oz, marking the first time in history they have reached this level.

An extraordinary milestone.

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BREAKING: The US Dollar Index has fallen by -1.5% this month, marking its lowest level since September 18.

Following its weakest annual performance since 2017, the US Dollar is beginning the new year on another negative note.

The market’s signal remains clear:
Own assets or risk being left behind.

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Where is Bitcoin?

Silver has been outperforming Bitcoin by one of the widest margins ever recorded.

Over the past ~13 months, Silver has gained +270%, while Bitcoin has declined -11%.

As a result, Silver’s market capitalization now stands at 3.5 times the size of Bitcoin’s.

The world continues to wait on crypto.

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