Asset managers remain highly bullish on U.S. equities:

- Net long positioning in S&P 500 futures has risen to 49%, close to the highest level on record.
- Since 2022, net exposure has increased by +400%.
- Current positioning is nearly double the long-term average of 26% and stands more than 2 standard deviations above historical norms.
- Net long positioning in Nasdaq 100 futures is also near its highest point in a decade.
- The S&P 500 has logged 37 all-time highs this year, ranking as the 3rd-highest since 2020, following 57 in 2024 and 70 in 2021.

Overall, risk appetite for equities is historically elevated.

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BREAKING: In a sharp shift, Kevin Warsh has emerged as the leading candidate to become the next Fed Chair, with odds at 48% according to Polymarket.

This development follows reports, just hours earlier, that Hassett’s candidacy faced resistance from “high-level individuals close to Trump.”

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BREAKING: According to the Financial Times, Amazon ($AMZN) is in discussions to invest over $10 billion in OpenAI.

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BREAKING: President Trump has directed a “complete blockade” on all sanctioned oil tankers entering or leaving Venezuela.

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AI stocks are taking a commanding role in the equity market:

- AI-related stocks now account for approximately 23% of global market capitalization, close to an all-time high.
- This share has doubled since November 2022, when ChatGPT was launched.
- These stocks have been a major force behind the global bull market, which has added more than $42 trillion in market cap over the past three years.
- In the United States, AI-linked companies now represent a record 46% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.
- For comparison, in November 2022, the figure was only 27%.

AI is reshaping the landscape of equity investing.

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BREAKING: President Trump stated that tariffs have cut the U.S. trade deficit “by more than half” and urged Americans to pray that the Supreme Court does not declare tariffs illegal.

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BREAKING: Japan’s 10-year government bond yield has surged to a record 2.10%, marking an increase of 100 basis points in 2025.

Just when it seems Japan’s situation could not deteriorate further, it continues to worsen.

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Absolutely remarkable:

Silver is now reaching daily record highs, having risen 140% in 2025 alone.

Technical indicators have become irrelevant, with the market posting eight consecutive green months.

The question remains: when will people finally start paying attention?

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BREAKING: Gold futures have surged to a new record high of $4,415 per ounce, now up 67% year-to-date.

Asset holders continue to come out ahead.

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Key Events This Week:

1. October PCE Inflation data - Monday

2. US Q3 2025 GDP data - Tuesday

3. December CB Consumer Confidence data - Tuesday

4. October New Home Sales data - Tuesday

5. October Durable Goods Orders data - Wednesday

6. Stock Market Closed, Merry Christmas! - Thursday

More government shutdown data is coming this week.

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Working a single job is increasingly insufficient to meet living expenses:

- The number of multiple jobholders surged by 499,000 in October and November, reaching a record 9.3 million.
- This total is up by 3.9 million from the 2020 low.
- It also stands 1.2 million higher than the peak during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

As a share of total employment, multiple jobholders climbed to 5.8%, nearly matching the two previous highs recorded over the past 25 years.

Meanwhile, the number of Americans holding a primary full-time job alongside a secondary part-time job rose to 5.3 million—the second-highest level in history.
- As a percentage of employment, this measure now stands at 3.4%, the second-highest since 2000.

The cost-of-living crisis is undeniable.

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BREAKING: A record 122.4 million Americans are projected to travel this holiday season, coinciding with gas prices falling to a 4‑year low of $2.85 per gallon.

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Investors remain highly bullish:

Bank of America’s Bull & Bear Indicator has climbed +0.6 points over the past few trading sessions, reaching 8.5 and returning to extreme bull territory.

This index tracks hedge fund and fund manager positioning, equity and bond flows, as well as overall market breadth.

Readings above 8.0 reflect exceptionally strong market sentiment.

The gauge now sits at its second-highest level since December 2020.

Since April, the indicator has surged +142%, fueled by robust equity inflows, broader market participation, and aggressive equity positioning by fund managers.

For comparison, the all-time peak was 9.6 in February 2018.

Investor appetite for stocks is exceptionally strong.

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U.S. demographic pressures are intensifying:

The number of American families with children under 18 has fallen to 33 million, the lowest level since 1993.

This total is down by roughly 3 million since 2008, even as the U.S. population grew by 36 million people.

It marks a clear departure from the post–World War II demographic boom, when family formation was steadily rising.

The decline is being driven by falling birth rates and an aging population.

Over time, these shifts may strain labor force growth, economic expansion, and spending on social programs.

The U.S. could soon be facing a demographic crisis.

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BREAKING: Global equity ETFs recorded a record +$145 billion in inflows last week.

The United States accounted for 54% of that total, or +$78 billion, marking the second-largest weekly inflow on record.

Leading the surge was the S&P 500 ETF, $VOO, which alone attracted +$59 billion.

Global long-only equity funds also posted a record +$46 billion in inflows.

With this momentum, global equity ETFs are on pace for a record +$1.4 trillion in total inflows—+$200 billion higher than last year.

This represents at least the 11th consecutive week of positive inflows.

Investor demand for global equities is accelerating at an unprecedented pace.

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Global coal consumption is at an all-time high:

Annual demand has reached a record 8.85 billion metric tonnes.

Since 2020, global coal use has increased by +1.40 billion tonnes.

China is the primary driver of this surge, accounting for roughly 56% of global consumption, or 4.95 billion tonnes.

In contrast, U.S. coal demand is 410 million tonnes, representing only about 5% of the world total.

Looking ahead, the IEA projects demand will gradually decline over the next five years, reaching around 8.60 billion tonnes by 2030.

Yet, past forecasts of peak coal demand have consistently proven inaccurate, as consumption continues to climb.

Coal remains in exceptionally strong demand.

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Full-time employment is declining at a troubling pace:

The U.S. economy shed -983,000 full-time jobs in October and November, reducing the total to 134.2 million—the lowest level since December 2021.

As a result, only 78.2% of the labor force is now employed full-time, the weakest share since June 2021.

This ratio has fallen -2.5 points from its peak in June 2023.

Historically, such declines have typically occurred during recessions.

For comparison, full-time employment as a share of the labor force dropped -2.2 percentage points during the 2001 recession.

At the same time, part-time employment rose by +1 million in October and November, reaching a record 29.5 million.

The labor market is signaling a need for further rate cuts.

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The US Department of War enters an agreement with Elon Musk's xAI.

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Risk appetite is surging at an unprecedented pace:

The ratio of assets under management in leveraged long ETFs versus short ETFs has climbed to 12.5x, an all-time high.

This ratio has nearly tripled since the market low in April.

Leveraged long ETF assets are now close to a record $146 billion, while inverse ETF assets have dropped to $12 billion—the lowest level since early 2025.

For comparison, the ratio was 1:1 at the bottom of the 2022 bear market and fell below 1.0x during the 2020 pandemic crash.

Since 2022, leveraged long ETF assets have quadrupled, while inverse ETF assets have more than halved.

Investors are embracing risk at record levels.

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Market concentration continues to climb:

The 7 largest stocks now make up a record 36% of the S&P 500’s market capitalization.

This share has doubled over the past 7 years and stands 13 percentage points above the peak reached during the Dot-Com Bubble in 2000.

At the same time, these 7 companies account for 26% of the index’s earnings, close to an all-time high.

For the past 15 years, market-cap and earnings weights for these stocks moved largely in sync—until diverging in 2022.

In addition, the 10 largest stocks now represent 40% of the S&P 500’s market cap, near a record, and 32% of total index earnings, the highest level ever.

Big tech’s dominance is expanding further.

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The U.S. leveraged loan market is facing mounting pressure:

The default rate on leveraged loans remained above 4% for 22 straight months, matching the streak seen during the 2008 Financial Crisis.

This downturn persisted twice as long as the one experienced during the 2020 pandemic.

In November, however, the default rate eased to 3.7%, officially ending the streak.

Notably, defaults peaked below 5% in this cycle—well under the 8% high reached in 2009.

At the same time, the 5-year cumulative default rate climbed to 16% this year, nearly equal to the 17% level recorded in 2012.

Meanwhile, the U.S. leveraged loan market has expanded threefold since 2012, hitting a record $2 trillion.

Investors in leveraged loans are facing significant losses.

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